QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[JM2009]

Indeed, our success has clearly been on a pendulum. We haven't really fielded a competent Defense and Offense at the same time since like 2004.

True.

 

Whilst I agree TT > Fitz... the defense was also the biggest reason Fitz's ceiling here was 6-10. We fielded some atrocious defenses in those years.

Also true, but doesn't take into account the Fitz turnovers at the worst time.

[xRUSHx]

True.

 

Also true, but doesn't take into account the Fitz turnovers at the worst time.

Fitz is more of a gamer compared to Tyrod.

When judging these two I'll use the 300 games of TT vrs Fitz and it isn't even a battle, Tyrod is on the bench wishing for a OT to get that 300 once while Fitz is fighting throwing INTs to get more then 10xs that. Eitherway they both are just not good enough, too bad we couldn't have the two of them cloned into one.

[JM2009]

Fitz is more of a gamer compared to Tyrod.

When judging these two I'll use the 300 games of TT vrs Fitz and it isn't even a battle, Tyrod is on the bench wishing for a OT to get that 300 once while Fitz is fighting throwing INTs to get more then 10xs that. Eitherway they both are just not good enough, too bad we couldn't have the two of them cloned into one.

Too bad this is a ridiculous conclusion. TT puts his whole heart and body into every game, and his leadership shows on the field. Who cares about 300 yard games when you turn the ball over and lose.

[Maury Ballstein]

Too bad this is a ridiculous conclusion. TT puts his whole heart and body into every game, and his leadership shows on the field. Who cares about 300 yard games when you turn the ball over and lose.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=MIAuac3WdrQ

[GunnerBill]

True.

Also true, but doesn't take into account the Fitz turnovers at the worst time.

 

And we all remember those, for sure, and I was ready to move on from Fitzy this is not some unreconstituted Fitz homage but give him a better D and he wins more games. I think he was capable of the kind of 9-7 / 10-6 years he has had in Houston and New York since leaving. Not every year... but he had that in him if you gave him a D, the same as TT does.

 

I think TT is the best Quarterback we have had in the drought save for those first 10 or 12 games of Bledsoe. I just think Fitz isn't that far behind and he is certainly better than Orton.

[JM2009]

Fitz is more of a gamer compared to Tyrod.

When judging these two I'll use the 300 games of TT vrs Fitz and it isn't even a battle, Tyrod is on the bench wishing for a OT to get that 300 once while Fitz is fighting throwing INTs to get more then 10xs that. Eitherway they both are just not good enough, too bad we couldn't have the two of them cloned into one.

You and a few others try way to hard to diminish the starting QB of this team. He is the best we have at this point and is a capable player. If you cannot stand that, then take the season off is my advice.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=MIAuac3WdrQ

So, he and the offense were bad in that game. They put up enough points throughout the season to be a playoff team if the defense was better throughout the season.14 more games to look at. the last game was a waste because the team gave up with EJ starting.

[HappyDays]

Ideally, good practices should be the norm and not something that happens every once in a while.

I mean it doesn't actually matter at all. It's just minicamp. My fault for coming back into the thread, I should have heeded the quarantine signs...

[JM2009]

 

And we all remember those, for sure, and I was ready to move on from Fitzy this is not some unreconstituted Fitz homage but give him a better D and he wins more games. I think he was capable of the kind of 9-7 / 10-6 years he has had in Houston and New York since leaving. Not every year... but he had that in him if you gave him a D, the same as TT does.

 

I think TT is the best Quarterback we have had in the drought save for those first 10 or 12 games of Bledsoe. I just think Fitz isn't that far behind and he is certainly better than Orton.

Good points. I think Orton was better, but we'll never really know.

[Billy Zabka]

I miss hearing about EJ Manuel taking off running in 7-on-7 passing drills...

[Crusher]

Yeah, he was absolutely underwhelming without pressure, true.

 

But the problem with your qualifier in the 2nd paragraph is your assumption that it's his passing out of the pocket that boosts him up... directly from the article:

Tyrod was 64 of 143 (44.7%) for 996 yards (6.96 yards per attempt) with 10 TDs and four INTs while under pressure in 2016.

 

Now I'm not presuming to figure out every single pass they've recorded, but according to PFF, 10 of his TDs were under pressure.

 

Now go to YouTube and count how many of his 17 TD passes he left the pocket for. I think you're going to be surprised (dare I even say encouraged?) at the fraction of his TD passes alone he actually left the pocket. If that's any indication of the rest of the throws they counted, the entire premise of what you say here is missing the mark.

The premise of what I'm saying is not wrong when the discussion wasn't about his 17 TD passes. We are talking about the 143 throws that they claimed TT was under pressure on...the TD throws are a small sampling of that.

 

What you would need in order to claim I'm missing the mark would be to chart all of those throws and give me a number on how many he stood in and completed without using his athleticism.

 

When you do that and show me an amount that would "encourage" me, then you would be correct saying what you said.

[xRUSHx]

You and a few others try way to hard to diminish the starting QB of this team. He is the best we have at this point and is a capable player. If you cannot stand that, then take the season off is my advice.

 

So, he and the offense were bad in that game. They put up enough points throughout the season to be a playoff team if the defense was better throughout the season.14 more games to look at. the last game was a waste because the team gave up with EJ starting.

See I don't agree with your assessment, just looking at this thread alone shows that the ones in Tyrods corner 100% of being good enough are putting in a ton of time trying to prop him up in a thread that should have been gone months ago.

 

I'm just here to throw a little jab from time to time. Hey I wish him luck this season but I'm not on board of him being as great as the few that do nothing but put him in the comparison of the top QBs in the league.

I hope Tyrod gets the job done but if I see the same old Tyrod I would hope change is made ASAP even if it's for one of our late rounder projects till a top prospect is drafted. I hope our new HC is not going to try to ram Tyrod is my guy no matter what at us like Chan did with Fitz, I think that is one of the main reasons Tyrod has so many not in his wagon hardcore like the few dominating this thread, many are worried the QB position will never get fixed and addressed correctly.

[Crusher]

The major problems with both Fitz and TT are that they fail late in games. One because he tried to do too much and couldn't put enough on some of those throws, while the other just isn't good enough to make the reads and anticipate throws when the defense is keyed in on obvious pass situations. Either that, or he's just afraid to take chances...neither is a good look.

 

For the first three quarters of a game I would have a hard time deciding which one I would rather have. They both stink late in games.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Good follow up question

 

I'd like to see TT not abort the pass more and as a result have more passing yards.

 

True or not as the reports said, the Bills sticking to the run was a reason teams were better equipped to defend against.

 

So I dug a little deeper and ran some numbers with 26 QBs meeting qualifying numbers for minimum games played, TDs, etc. Exactly 9 of the 26 QBs met both of the 250+ YPG and 1.875 TD/G marks through passing alone (Brees, Ben, Brady, Palmer, Rivers, Luck, Eli, Rodgers, and Carr). Another 3 met both if you included Rushing stats (Cousins, Bortles, and Newton) for a total of 12 QBs to hit that criteria over the past 2 year span.

 

Here are Tyrod's ranks in the pertinent columns:

Passing YPG: 25th

Passing TD/G: 23rd

INT/G: 2nd

Total YPG: 22nd

Total TD/G: 19th

TD/TO: 2nd

 

And here's the stats, sorted by Total TD/G:

[Bangarang]

And for the 100 millionth time, TT is better than Fitz. How many times does this nonsense have to go back and forth. Again TT is a better QB than the Fitz. The defense was the main problem last season, not the offense. the last two seasons with TT as QB,, the Bills offense is one of the higher scoring offenses in the NFL.

How good do you think Tyrod would be with historically bad defenses and a WR unit of Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones, David Nelson and Ruvell Martin?

 

I agree that TT is better than Fitz but he's also had a lot more to work with.

Edited June 16, 2017 by Bangarang

[Shaw66]

The major problems with both Fitz and TT are that they fail late in games. One because he tried to do too much and couldn't put enough on some of those throws, while the other just isn't good enough to make the reads and anticipate throws when the defense is keyed in on obvious pass situations. Either that, or he's just afraid to take chances...neither is a good look.

 

For the first three quarters of a game I would have a hard time deciding which one I would rather have. They both stink late in games.

Crusher -

 

Do you have any data to back this up? I'm more interested in Taylor data than Fitz data - I'm pretty confident I know that Fitz failed late in games, but I'm not so sure you're correct about Taylor - either about failing or about the reason you think he failed.

 

Fitz's career passer rating is 80. He was high 80s low 90s only two seasons in his career; most seasons his passer rating was in the low 80s or below. So that means isn't a very effective QB, period. When you look at his splits, you can see he was particularly bad at the end of the game. Career 4th quarter rating - 71, below his career average generally - in other words, he's better in earlier quarters. Tied, or trailing with less than 2 or 4 minutes to play, his passer rating is regularly around 50. 85 in games that are tied, 73 when his team is trailing. So, compared to his own averages, he's played really poorly in the last few minutes of games when his team needed scores.

 

Taylor is different. He has a career passer rating of 92, which is a really solid number. When you look at his splits, you see that he performs about as well in end-of-game situations as at other times of the game. Fourth quarter rating is 88, a little below his average, but not bad. Tied with less than 4 minutes to go his rating is 149. Trailing, less than 2 or 4 minutes to go, he's around 85. 89 when tied, 90 when trailing. Not great, and maybe not good enough, but unquestionably better than Fitz. Not even the same league.

 

So unless you have other data, I don't see that there's much comparison between the two. The question, as I intimated, is whether what Taylor has done is good enough. So look at Matt Ryan, someone who probably isn't a hall of famer but definitely is a franchise qb. Passer rating over 93. Career splits: 4th quarter, 85. When tied or losing with less than 4 and 2 minutes to go, passer rating in the 40s and 60s! Tied generally 95, trailing generally 90. So compared to Matt Ryan, Tyrod looks like he's right there.

 

How about Aaron Rodgers? Career rating 104. Fourth quarter 102. Tied or trailing with 4 or 2 minutes left, 115, 94, 65, 76. 107 tied generally, 99 trailing. So Rodgers performs at the end of games about as he does at other times.

 

What does it all mean? It means, I think, that we'd certainly want Taylor to be better at the end of games, but he (and at least two inarguably good quarterbacks) perform about as well at the end of games as they do the other 55 minutes. That, in turn, means that Taylor's problem (if he has a problem) is that he isn't good enough generally, not that he isn't good enough at the end of the game.

 

The problem (which you are sure he has and I am not so sure) is that Taylor can't perform at relatively high levels (passer rating in mid-90s) if he's called on to throw 35 times a game regularly. I think you and I agree that the Bills need a QB who can perform at a high level throwing 35 times a game instead of 25. I really hope we see Taylor in that kind of offense this season, because that will tell us how good Taylor really is.

How good do you think Tyrod would be with historically bad defenses and a WR unit of Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones, David Nelson and Ruvell Martin?

 

I agree that TT is better than Fitz but he's also had a lot more to work with.

Stop. What are you saying? That Taylor is better or isn't? Are you saying Taylor throwing to those receivers would have gotten the same results, then why do you think Taylor is better.

 

The simple fact is that Taylor is unquestionably better than Fitzpatrick. Unquestionably. Taylor's WORST season was better than Fitzy's second BEST season. And Taylor can run. There's no comparison, regardless of receivers.

 

And, by the way, look at Taylor's receivers last season. Were they actually better than the four you named? Hard to say.

[John from Riverside]

Fitz is more of a gamer compared to Tyrod.

When judging these two I'll use the 300 games of TT vrs Fitz and it isn't even a battle, Tyrod is on the bench wishing for a OT to get that 300 once while Fitz is fighting throwing INTs to get more then 10xs that. Eitherway they both are just not good enough, too bad we couldn't have the two of them cloned into one.

You are entitled to your opinion

[transplantbillsfan]

... "This was a good sign for Taylor, especially considering that the other five workouts weve seen has featured him really playing at an average to below average level" ...

 

maybe they told the defense to take it down a notch?

These Training Camp discussions are gonna be fun

[Shaw66]

 

So I dug a little deeper and ran some numbers with 26 QBs meeting qualifying numbers for minimum games played, TDs, etc. Exactly 9 of the 26 QBs met both of the 250+ YPG and 1.875 TD/G marks through passing alone (Brees, Ben, Brady, Palmer, Rivers, Luck, Eli, Rodgers, and Carr). Another 3 met both if you included Rushing stats (Cousins, Bortles, and Newton) for a total of 12 QBs to hit that criteria over the past 2 year span.

 

Here are Tyrod's ranks in the pertinent columns:

Passing YPG: 25th

Passing TD/G: 23rd

INT/G: 2nd

Total YPG: 22nd

Total TD/G: 19th

TD/TO: 2nd

 

And here's the stats, sorted by Total TD/G:

I think it's interesting that almost any way that reasonable people look at the data, there's always the same conclusion: there are about 10 very good qbs in the league. What you want is for your team to have one of the 10. If your QB is in the second ten, you probably go with him, try to build a really good defense, and keep your eyes open for an opportunity to upgrade your qb. If your QB isn't in the top 20, you're actively looking to replace him.

 

I thought the 260, 1.875 was a pretty good test, and what did you find? Nine guys.

 

Our question is whether in a more balanced offense Taylor can join that group. Interestingly, if you gross up Taylor to 1100 pass attempts over two seasons, which is the minimum for the 9, more or less, than Taylor is at 250 yards and 1.56.

 

So, just like we always come back to about 10 top QBs, we also always come back to Taylor looking like he's close to that group but not in it.

[Bangarang]

Stop. What are you saying? That Taylor is better or isn't?

I very clearly said I think he's better.

 

Are you saying Taylor throwing to those receivers would have gotten the same results, then why do you think Taylor is better.

On pure talent for the position I think Tyrod is better. I also think you're looking too deeply into what I said. Fitz was on a garbage team with very little quality talent and Tyrod has been fortunate enough to be in a better situation.

 

The simple fact is that Taylor is unquestionably better than Fitzpatrick. Unquestionably. Taylor's WORST season was better than Fitzy's second BEST season. And Taylor can run. There's no comparison, regardless of receivers.

I never said otherwise...

 

Edited June 16, 2017 by Bangarang

[Royale with Cheese]

I think many of us need to get together in person, with water balloons and have these exact topics as discussions.

 

The get together should be on a warm day and outside.