QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[transplantbillsfan]

The numbers? How does Fahey get his "numbers?"

 

What was our team YAC in 2015? With a Sammy who played almost the entire season?

 

The evidence is in the game. Not only does TT throw balls that are usually inaccurate enough that WR/TE's can't turn up field, his deficits on using the middle of the field and relying too much on comebacks and outs (sideline throws) virtually ensure poor YAC numbers.

 

You're right, the evidence is in the game. And if you watched the games, you would know it has everything to do with the types of routes the WRs were running. They were routes overwhelmingly not designed for YAC. "Relying on those comebacks and outs"...?

 

Dude, he's playing in an offensive system and the plays are called by an Offensive Coordinator, not by Taylor.

[Cripple Creek]

So first of all, I'd recommend forking out the less than $20 to get this PDF QB catalogue emailed to you. It's obvious he put tons of work and time into this. Last year when someone first mentioned him to me on reference to this catalogue, my reaction was: "who the hell is Cian Fahey?!"

 

Well, in short, he's good at what he does... having worked at Footballoutsiders for a while before going out on his own. But no matter what you think of his knowledge, what the catalogue primarily accomplishes (at least for me) is a good deal of comparative data that goes beyond the typical charted data the league tracks.

 

The focus is on the actual level of play of a QB on the field by attributing credit and/or blame for individual things the QB almost always gets credit (i.e.:completion %) or blame (i.e.:interceptions, sacks) for.

 

Fahey acknowledges the inevitable subjectivity involved, but uses the same subjective criteria to chart 33 NFL QBs and every single one of their snaps. So it's pretty evenly subjective, at least.

 

There are chapters that discuss in detail all 33 QBs more anecdotally, but I don't want to post too much simply because of the amount of work he put into it. If you're a football fan and specifically a fan of QBs, it's easily worth $20.

 

But here are a few pieces of comparative data some that seem to counter some preconceived notions.

 

I think people can figure out what these terms mean themselves, but again, Fahey explains in detail what each category means and what he includes.

 

All I'm doing is including the rankings among his 32 peers for each category:

 

INTERCEPTABLE PASS % - 3rd

 

CAUGHT (by the defense) INTERCEPTABLE PASS % - Tied for 6th highest

 

ACCURACY % - 9th

 

ACCURACY % behind LOS - 19th

 

ACCURACY % passes 11-15 yards - 8th

 

ACCURACY % passes 11-20 yards - 10th

 

ACCURACY % passes 5 or more yards - 7th

 

% of total attempts up to 10 yards beyond LOS - 24th

 

% of total attempts beyond 10 yards beyond LOS - 10th

 

FAILED RECEPTION (by the WR) %.- 4th highest

 

CREATED RECEPTION (by the WR) % - 20th highest

 

CREATED YARDS (by the WR) % - 26th

 

ADJUSTED COMPLETION % - 5th

 

 

ADJUSTED YPA - 3rd

 

SCREENS, SCREEN TDs, & SCREEN % - 33rd

 

AVOIDABLE SACK % - 18th

 

 

 

Anyway... there's a LOT more in the catalogue but I don't know if everyone remembers McDermott's PC about why the Bills decided to keep Taylor and one of the things he mentioned was that in watching Taylor on film last year he was really good (the actual word might have been fantastic, but now I'm too lazy to look it up) and all everyone could call it was "coachspeak?" Maybe that's true, to some degree... but maybe he was also being truthful...

Thanks. I've listened to Cian on a couple different programs, some local and some national. Really interesting take and I was hoping someone would print some of what he had to say about Taylor. Appreciate you passing this on to us.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I'm not buying it. until Taylor can throw the ball to his receiver who's not open and then throw it before his reciever makes his cut, I will then get on the Taylor train. I'm tired of watching all these other QB's do that in the NFL. Also this whole problem could have been solved by Drafting Mahomes or Watson with our 10th pick. So now we wait yet another year to get to drafting a franchise QB and getting him reps and learning the offense. Taylor is a bridge QB. I like him he's pretty good. But he won't win you any playoff games or Super Bowls with him. You can't play QB like he does and win tuff games against good opponents. Give me a QB that can throw the ball with anticipation and before the receiver makes his cut and then you will see some great wins. Taylor holds the ball the longest. He will only throw it unless he see's his guy is wide open, he does not throw over the middle very much. No anticipation at all, except throwing it out there on deep ball shots. Peterman might be that guy. I don't know enough about him. But what I seen on film is really good. Let's see how he looks in the preseason games.

Couldn't agree more, 100% correct on all accounts.

[transplantbillsfan]

Do you agree with Fahey's assessment that Taylor is better than Cousins?

 

I think they're about the same level of QB. Cousins has really benefitted from 2 pretty exceptional OCs and more continuity from a healthy WR corps.

 

I take it you think that Cousins is levels above Taylor?

[SDS]

 

In all due respect, I strongly disagree.

 

Also, I don't think it's a fair conclusion to state, "you didn't like math and science in school", since that seems to be a condescending tone that I intentionally tried to avoid. I know your stature with this board and appreciate the work you've put in to make this a wonderful place to discuss Bills football, but I don't think that gives you a pass for the tenor of your dissent.

 

So, what you are telling me is that you are actually fluid in math and science, it's just that you chose to dismiss peer-reviewed, published research by a professor at the Univ. of Cincinnati because it didn't meet your standard for mathematical rigor? Got it.

 

BTW, please vaccinate your kids.

[Bangarang]

 

It's the 2nd thread I've started in 2 months as a member here.

 

Yes, both have been about Taylor. Sorry about that. Not likely to start another thread for a while.

 

Pretty sure this brings in new, different stuff. And it's just me pulling stuff from a source not everyone will have access to for discussion.

 

Sorry that offends you so much...

Why would you assume this offends me? We both know how these threads usually turn out. Edited May 1, 2017 by Bangarang

[Alphadawg7]

 

It's not all on TT, but it is a huge part on TT and by far the weakest aspect of his game.

 

I don't see a lot of receivers on this team dogging out routes, but you aren't getting YAC when you're catching a 7 yard pass and stepping OOB. And TT relies on sideline routes far too much.

 

I don't really disagree with anything you just said, similar to how I feel, just maybe not quite as strongly as you might feel on it. I think part of the problem with TT and the sideline routes is a combination of 2 things.

 

1. The plays called. WR's generally run the routes designed in the play, barring an audible at the line or a route where the WR has multiple choices based on the D.

2. TT tendency to look to use his legs. When you got a QB who will look to get outside the pocket a lot potentially opening up running lanes to make a play, the WR's will break off their routes and move to that side of the field, hence more sideline throws.

 

I already said it before, I think the biggest flaws in TT game are all very correctable, which is a good thing. Now that doesn't mean he will correct them or improve, but there is reason to be optimistic still that his level of play can improve. Again, all anyone has to do is watch how TT throws to Sammy and then watch how he throws to the other WR's and you can see a very distinct difference. He makes throws to Sammy and takes more chances than he does with any other player on the team, and that is a direct result of Trust and Chemistry.

 

I don't care what anyone says about Robert Woods, he was an average at best #2 WR, and unfortunately was forced to be the main guy way more than intended due to Sammys foot injury. Add into that, Woods himself was constantly battling injuries and often playing less than 100%. TT clearly didnt have the same rapport/trust with Woods and similar with the other guys behind him who had to play a lot due to the injury situation. Getting Sammy 100% (lets all hope at least) and hopefully having Zay emerge as a talented WR opposite Sammy will already make a world of difference. Add in a rebuilt WR group behind them, and there is a good start already to improve the passing game.

 

Its bad enough when a QB lacks the trust/rapport with a WR in general, but its significantly magnified on a QB who is dual threat with his legs. Especially when that QB is being heralded by his coaches for his legs and given the green light to run wild when he feels he needs to. Give him more comfort and trust in that receiving group, focus his mindset on being patient before looking to make a play with his legs, and TT could very well take a big leap forward. He is already good with protecting the ball, has a dominant run game around him, and now just needs to be more patient and I think he can really improve seeing more opportunities down field. We don't need to keep him from wanting to run, just got to move the run option in his progression in his reads back a little bit and that could make a world of difference.

 

BEST PART: We have 2 number 1's and a friendly TT contract going into to next year if things are not progressing the way they MUST this year for TT. Not to mention, I think Peterman has a lot more potential than your typical 5th round QB and was a tremendous value in the 5th. So if TT falters early and we fail out of contention early, we might get a chance to see what Peterman can do second half of this year too. I realize I could say the same for CJ, but I just don't see it in the guy. He wasn't good his last year in college, and shown nothing encouraging in the limited reps on the field. Would love it if he proved me wrong, I have nothing against him, just yet to see anything that made me think he is going to do anything at this level.

[Wayne Arnold]

 

So, what you are telling me is that you are actually fluid in math and science, it's just that you chose to dismiss peer-reviewed, published research by a professor at the Univ. of Cincinnati because it didn't meet your standard for mathematical rigor? Got it.

 

BTW, please vaccinate your kids.

 

What are your thoughts on: confidence, the effect crowds can have on players' mentalities, and how mood alters performance,

 

If you don't believe in momentum in sports then you're saying you don't believe that any of the above exist.

[transplantbillsfan]

He did not. He gave no criteria for determing how "by the WR" stats are even recorded. Furthermore, Fahey is clearly using his own version of the "eye test" to make his determinants. It's not like he has hard numbers. He's making his own interpretation by watching the plays, the same as me.

 

The YAC average for the Bills in 2015 was 31st. It was 30th in 2016. Unless our WR's got better in 2016, I'd say Fahey is full of it.

 

Yeah, but at least he's using his own version of the "eye test" across 32 other NFL QBs.

 

One of my biggest issues with all the anti-Taylor posters is that they talk about Taylor in a vacuum as though the bar he needs to meet is arbitrarily set up in our minds when that bar should really be what all those other guys playing the position on 31 other NFL teams are doing comparatively.

 

So, while you might not like Fahey's methodology, at least he does it across the board with all the other QBs in order to give some sort of point of comparison to see where Taylor falls in the hierarchy of certain aspects of the position rather than someone just saying "my eyes tell me he's not good enough."

[transplantbillsfan]

I disagree.

 

And Fahey basically watches every catch and says "that one was the QB's/WR's fault." Which is the eye test. Not sure why that makes his subjective analysis better than mine.

 

Have you gone through every snap of not just Taylor but those 32 other NFL QBs and charted them using the same "eye test" you used to chart Taylor?

 

If you have, I'd love to read your numbers. If you haven't, that's why his subjective analysis is better than yours.

[mannc]

 

Have you gone through every snap of not just Taylor but those 32 other NFL QBs and charted them using the same "eye test" you used to chart Taylor?

 

If you have, I'd love to read your numbers. If you haven't, that's why his subjective analysis is better than yours.

Exactly.

[akm0404]

Great OP.

 

This thread, and Bills fans here in general pretty much directly reflect the climate of just about everything in the world now:

 

Pick a side, identify with it, and defend it to the death no matter what.

 

You either love Tyrod or think he's the worst qb in the NFL. If you hate him, no reasoned, methodical statistical argument will ever sway you.

 

You either love Whaley, or wanted him fired. Didn't matter if he turned a scrap heap free agent into a 5th rounder, you were going to oppose everything anyway.

 

This guy literally studied every single play run by every single quarterback in the NFL. Evaluated them all on the same set of criteria.

 

But, if the findings don't support your "side", fall back to the facts being fake news and that your "eye test" proves otherwise.

 

Sure, both you and the stats guy used the eye test to draw your conclusions. Who should you trust? The guy that studied every play run by every team year after year, or some jilted sports fan who feels miserable in his heart because his team isn't every good.

Edited May 1, 2017 by akm0404

[Figster]

 

What are your thoughts on: confidence, the effect crowds can have on players' mentalities, and how mood alters performance,

 

If you don't believe in momentum in sports then you're saying you don't believe that any of the above exist.

Did the Falcons lose momentum in the second half of the Superbowl, or did superior coaching make the better adjustments?

Edited May 1, 2017 by Figster

[Rochesterfan]

Another transplant about Tyrod. This should be an exciting rollercoaster.

 

I still say he's nothing more than a decent stop gap.

 

 

I know - just like old times - Wheres the popcorn?

[transplantbillsfan]

Those same plays that had WR and TE running free all over the field week in and week out? Those plays?

 

​Fahey talks about this idea that Taylor had WRs running constantly wide open all over the field that he should have thrown to as a common misconception.

 

He has his own explanations. I'm not going to copy and paste because that'd be a disservice.

 

 

What I'd ask is this: How many of those plays where you saw a WR and TE running free all over the field did you also look at the factors impacting Taylor getting rid of the football?

[Lothar]

Did the Falcons lose momentum in the second half of the Superbowl, or did superior coaching make the better adjustments?

Whether one has advanced degrees in math and science shouldn't preclude the idea that individuals don't tighten up or lose confidence after a succession of bad plays. Rather than use mathematics or hard science as a proof of momentum's existence, the psychology of pressure and (waxing or waning confidence) could explain a lot. As could better coaching and more experience in the big game.

[Rochesterfan]

 

This is incredibly untrue.

 

Without referring to the fact that Fahey's accuracy % is about how accurate passes are, not whether they are completions or not, I can say this pretty confidently myself because I actually spent time going through a good number of TT's games myself to find how many of his passes negated YAC. That number was very, very low.

 

 

This is just one of those blanket statements that lacks insight and is simply "torch and pitchfork" material.

 

 

So then why the low amount of YAC for him - oh yeah - the decisions TT makes and where he throws the ball.

 

I agree he is not negating YAC with his throws - he refuses to throw passes in locations consistently to get YAC.

 

His bread and butter throws have consistently been the comeback routes that he is late on and the WR gets tackled immediately and the out breaking routes that lead the WR to the sideline.

 

He has great completion percentage and that makes his stats look great for a guy like Fahey to compile, but the question is he doing what he needed to do to win. Is he making the plays or not. He does not make mistakes and he does not throw into coverage or into areas where the WR can make a big play, but there is risk.

 

Fahey's numbers are not absolutely wrong, but they provide almost no context because all he is doing is making subjective numbers out of the result of the play. This makes TT numbers look better than a guy like Rodgers (or many other top line QBs) because Rodgers takes some risks and has more interceptable balls and more incompletions, but part of that is the big plays that come from the risk - especially late in games and late in the half.

 

Look TT is still the exact same QB you saw the last 2 years - nothing has changed - he is above average in some limited games, but in too many games he does not do enough when the ball is in his hand. He does not lose games for the team - the defense did enough of that, but he does not win games either. If he wants to become a winner - unfortunately I believe you are going to have to see a major shift in those numbers - he is going to have to take a few more risks and throw to some guys that are covered and throw them open. If not the numbers are just that numbers and are meaningless.

 

I think he has a chance with the new offense, but we will know shortly will he make the plays or will he be replaced and someone else - Peterman/2018 Draft pick will get a shot.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

Interceptable Pass % was 3rd best

 

Interceptable Passes caught by Defense was 6th most... in other words, the defenders didn't drop INTs very much for Taylor in comparison to his peers.

 

For explanations of Accuracy % buy the catalogue because he spends a chapter explaining how he assesses each thing. Like for example, he discards batted passes at the line and obvious throwaways in the passes he charts. Like I said, there's subjectivity and his numbers aren't absolutely perfect because of that subjectivity, but the same criteria was used for all 33 QBs, according to him.

 

Accuracy % behind LOS means accuracy on passes to WRs behind the LOS, not where he threw the football.

 

I think you're insight into the % of throws up to 10 yards being so low beyond the LOS is really interesting.

 

Failed Reception % is 4th highest, meaning Taylor's WRs were at fault for the 4th most incompletions by % of total throws the QB throws in 2016.

 

Thanks. Not to be pissy and I'm sure it's a worthwhile use of funds, but buying the book is not in the family budget. We're sending the kid to a fancy-pants engineering camp this summer.

 

My family puts up with my football obsession, and sometimes even gives me NFL Rewind as a birthday present, so I won't sneak unauthorized stuff . I'm sure I'd love it though, people who've been here a while know I'm a dyed-in-the-(Buffalo)-wool stats geek.

 

Appreciate the gouge and the clarifications. Our WR just were not very good last year. That's the infamous "eyeball test" by yours truly too - I would watch other teams and go "da** why don't our guys make catches like that?"

 

​Fahey talks about this idea that Taylor had WRs running constantly wide open all over the field that he should have thrown to as a common misconception.

 

He has his own explanations. I'm not going to copy and paste because that'd be a disservice.

 

 

What I'd ask is this: How many of those plays where you saw a WR and TE running free all over the field did you also look at the factors impacting Taylor getting rid of the football?

 

Sammy actually talked about this some, said that he'd be "I'm open, why aren't I getting the ball?" and when he'd look at the film, he'd see Taylor was under pressure and/or didn't have a clean lane to him.

Edited May 2, 2017 by Hapless Bills Fan

[GoBills808]

 

I think they're about the same level of QB. Cousins has really benefitted from 2 pretty exceptional OCs and more continuity from a healthy WR corps.

 

I take it you think that Cousins is levels above Taylor?

I truly doubt it's just me.

[Rochesterfan]

 

You're right, the evidence is in the game. And if you watched the games, you would know it has everything to do with the types of routes the WRs were running. They were routes overwhelmingly not designed for YAC. "Relying on those comebacks and outs"...?

 

Dude, he's playing in an offensive system and the plays are called by an Offensive Coordinator, not by Taylor.

 

 

And Dude - you watched enough games to know that there were guys running open that TT never got to in a progression because he locked early on to a particular route.

 

We saw that on the All-22 time and again - starting in Baltimore - he had plays that could be made and he choose the easy throw to the routes he was comfortable with.

 

There are many routes on the route tree and both OC's over the last 2 years kept certain routes that he was comfortable with in the trees - comebacks, outs, go routes down the sideline.

 

There were also post routes and slants, routes with WRs going across the middle of the field and those were thrown to with less frequency. I know he made the plays, but I still believe he leaves way to many plays on the field to ever be the guy to lead a team where you want to go - especially if you need a late score to win.