QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[Rochesterfan]

 

As we perhaps start to get back to the "rat hole" I started us down, one of Fahey's most critical points was how overvalued QBs are when it comes to wins. He actually talks in great depth about it.

 

He still argues that QB is the most important position on the field, but whereas most attribute (I'll use arbitrary numbers now) 40-50% of the credit or blame to team wins and losses on QBs, the number is closer to 10%.

 

And part of his goal was an analysis on the skills QBs demonstrate on the field and how traditional stats don't fully convey what a QB can and does do. And that stats often belie QB play on the field.

 

None of his points were about correlating wins although he does talk about them in the process of his chapters, anecdotally discussing the impact of the stats on each player.

 

It's elaborate and thoughtful. And yes, subjective. But (we assume) equally subjective.

 

 

That's why I think it's ridiculous to just dismiss him because you don't agree with him as GoBills808 is simply because of his views on Cousins. Well, he's pretty thorough and thoughtful about his discussion of Cousins, and when people dismiss Fahey because of his views on another player like Cousins, I would ask only one question:

 

Did you watch every single snap the QB took that you disagree with Fahey so adamantly on?

 

First this has thread has gone all over the place, but it keeps going to extremes when in actuality the extremes are not the issue - Is TT the best or worst QB in the league - Nope - he is a middling QB. He puts up good numbers in some categories and lower numbers in others. He will never be confused with an Aaron Rodgers or a EJ Manuel - he is just a guy in the middle of the pack - same as Alex Smith or Siemian or Tannehill.

 

If you have ever listened to Fahey - he admits he is a numbers/analytics guy. He is very new to football and he readily admits that there are many nuances that he does not fully understand - he watches film and makes counts of situations. Therefore he bases many of his decisions on the numbers strictly and makes some mistakes (as everyone does) because of how the numbers and the play look. That is not good or bad - it is who he is.

 

One of the things I think he is very wrong about is Wins if Transplant is quoting him correctly. There is not a set percentage that you can attribute to wins, but QB play is the single biggest driver of wins and losses in the NFL. It is why a QB change prior to a game can move the point spread as much as 4-6 points in some cases. It is why an injury to a QB in preseason can change a projected teams win/lost record by 3-4 games whereas any other position player going out has almost no impact.

 

Look at the Bills - having TT as the QB - the Bills are projected to be a 6-7 win team. What would you expectations be is Yates takes over as the starting QB. The projected win total drops to what 3 wins and that is a change from a middling QB to a lower tier QB. Conversely if the Bills had Brady/Rodgers/Big Ben - the win total would go up to 8-10. The QB matters in individual games and over the course of a season. Every win or every lose is not on the QB alone, but when you get to the end of the year - it gives a pretty good idea of the trend of the QB play.

 

Shaw has brought up several times how TT numbers in the 4th quarter are not bad, but are essentially very consistent across quarters and across situations and that does not surprise me because late in games - you do not see TT take many additional risks or make a higher percentage of plays (or fail more because of interceptions) - he is steady.

 

Overall the biggest issue I have with this entire thread is when we are talking about Fahey's ranking - he lists most of the rankings based on percentage and that makes an assumption that if TT threw the same numbers of passes as other Abs - those percentages do not change and that is where I have my concerns. TT had an average TD percentage, but his 17 TD passes and his 201 yards/game put him near the very bottom of the league in raw numbers (24th and 31st respectively). Those fall right in line with where his attempts per game and other raw stats fall. It is part of the reason QB play is difficult to quantitate using stats.

 

What he means is he was asked to do very little - he did many things well, but did not excel in any phase of the game - he is fairly consistent. He is the very definition of a journeyman QB. A guy that can get you through games, but not a QB that is going to suddenly explode. He is a good bridge QB and that is why they got him on what is essentially a 1 year deal - rather than his previous essentially 3 year deal and the Bills have some options to decide how they want to go forward.

[Royale with Cheese]

I agree. Thought it was pretty obvious when the Bills got Dennison as the OC that the intention was to keep Taylor and hit the ground running.

 

Of course that's not a fact, I'm just using logic to create a reasonable opinion

A reasonable and logical opinion would also indicate that since it took two days before deadline and Tyrod stating his agent was having light discussions (aka tampering) with other teams....Tyrod was looking for a better deal. It wasn't that he took the Bills pay cut because he loves the Bills so much, it was because he didn't get the value on the market he thought he would.

He even stated that they both agreed that the Bills new contract was the best option....keyword option.

[BringBackOrton]

Fact, transplant will be next in the long line of TBD posters who lose their minds when their mediocre player finally fails. Say hi to Bills Fan 4 Ever for me.

[BuffaloHokie13]

So, Hokie, is this just a theory you have, or do you have some inside knowledge that tells you this?

 

I've wondered about Dennison's role in all this. Frankly, if that's true, I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing. After all, Chan Gailey really wanted to work with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Everyone can make mistakes.

 

Still, regardless of how we got here, here we are. Tyrod is almost certainly the starter in 2017. I DO feel good that his offensive coordinator is someone who has worked with him before, someone who is installing the system they worked on together. That's a plus for Taylor, and therefore it's a plus for the Bills.

It's what I've gathered from several conversations, some of which were with people who are recently unemployed.

 

And yeah, like I said, it certainly doesn't guarantee success; but Dennison has a year to show McD (and now Beane) whether his vision can come to fruition or not.

[Shaw66]

It's what I've gathered from several conversations, some of which were with people who are recently unemployed.

 

And yeah, like I said, it certainly doesn't guarantee success; but Dennison has a year to show McD (and now Beane) whether his vision can come to fruition or not.

"people who are recently unemployed." You mean, like the Director of the FBI? Did the FBI bug OBD? I hope Dennison hasn't been talking to the Russians.

 

Got it. Thanks.

 

That's very interesting news. And you're right, Dennison has a year to show McD and B that his judgment was correct.

 

It was interesting reading about Dennison when the Bills hired him. Seems like a pretty deep thinker for a football coach.

[transplantbillsfan]

There is no way anyone from OBD would go to he public about what their intentions were on Tyrod, especially since he was brought back. Come on Trans....that's your focal point in this debate? No one went to the media to tell the NFL world what the behind the scenes discussions were? Seriously?

No, it was fact vs opinion, that's all.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Nope, no link. You can believe it or not, I was just adding some context to the situation. Dennison was also the driving force behind Denver's offer to Tyrod when he was an FA, not Kubiak. It certainly doesn't guarantee success for Tyrod, but the guy wants to work with him.

thats fine. Speculation runs rampant here.

 

I've still not seen any proof that the Bronco's were seriously interested in TT. All we saw was speculation that the 3 or 4 teams were interested, yet none of those "truths" made it to the light of day.

[Crusher]

 

First this has thread has gone all over the place, but it keeps going to extremes when in actuality the extremes are not the issue - Is TT the best or worst QB in the league - Nope - he is a middling QB. He puts up good numbers in some categories and lower numbers in others. He will never be confused with an Aaron Rodgers or a EJ Manuel - he is just a guy in the middle of the pack - same as Alex Smith or Siemian or Tannehill.

 

If you have ever listened to Fahey - he admits he is a numbers/analytics guy. He is very new to football and he readily admits that there are many nuances that he does not fully understand - he watches film and makes counts of situations. Therefore he bases many of his decisions on the numbers strictly and makes some mistakes (as everyone does) because of how the numbers and the play look. That is not good or bad - it is who he is.

 

One of the things I think he is very wrong about is Wins if Transplant is quoting him correctly. There is not a set percentage that you can attribute to wins, but QB play is the single biggest driver of wins and losses in the NFL. It is why a QB change prior to a game can move the point spread as much as 4-6 points in some cases. It is why an injury to a QB in preseason can change a projected teams win/lost record by 3-4 games whereas any other position player going out has almost no impact.

 

Look at the Bills - having TT as the QB - the Bills are projected to be a 6-7 win team. What would you expectations be is Yates takes over as the starting QB. The projected win total drops to what 3 wins and that is a change from a middling QB to a lower tier QB. Conversely if the Bills had Brady/Rodgers/Big Ben - the win total would go up to 8-10. The QB matters in individual games and over the course of a season. Every win or every lose is not on the QB alone, but when you get to the end of the year - it gives a pretty good idea of the trend of the QB play.

 

Shaw has brought up several times how TT numbers in the 4th quarter are not bad, but are essentially very consistent across quarters and across situations and that does not surprise me because late in games - you do not see TT take many additional risks or make a higher percentage of plays (or fail more because of interceptions) - he is steady.

 

Overall the biggest issue I have with this entire thread is when we are talking about Fahey's ranking - he lists most of the rankings based on percentage and that makes an assumption that if TT threw the same numbers of passes as other Abs - those percentages do not change and that is where I have my concerns. TT had an average TD percentage, but his 17 TD passes and his 201 yards/game put him near the very bottom of the league in raw numbers (24th and 31st respectively). Those fall right in line with where his attempts per game and other raw stats fall. It is part of the reason QB play is difficult to quantitate using stats.

 

What he means is he was asked to do very little - he did many things well, but did not excel in any phase of the game - he is fairly consistent. He is the very definition of a journeyman QB. A guy that can get you through games, but not a QB that is going to suddenly explode. He is a good bridge QB and that is why they got him on what is essentially a 1 year deal - rather than his previous essentially 3 year deal and the Bills have some options to decide how they want to go forward.

If what you say about Fahey is true, which I assume is the case since you are a respected poster, then this guy has absolutely ZERO credibility in what he does if you ask me.

 

Just another case of Transplant reaching as far as he has to in order to achieve his confirmation bias. He would tell us Stevie Wonders evaluation of Tyrod was something worthwhile if it furthered his crusade.

 

It really is laughable anymore at this point. The lengths the OP goes to for a guy that at best is nothing more than a middling option with major weaknesses on basic QB skills only makes me question him as a legitimate poster. It's to the point of obsessive trolling IMO, and that's hard to respect.

[Crusher]

It's what I've gathered from several conversations, some of which were with people who are recently unemployed.

 

And yeah, like I said, it certainly doesn't guarantee success; but Dennison has a year to show McD (and now Beane) whether his vision can come to fruition or not.

It doesn't really matter who Tyrods OC is IMO. You are really only going to be able to do so much with a limited passer. The last two season's we ran alot and only gave Taylor what he could handle, and you have seen the results. Team's have figured out that Taylor is getting by on more playmaking than actual passing ability. Dennison will come up with some more smoke and mirrors stuff to utilize the unique skill set Tyrod has, but that stuff has a shelf life and will ultimately get picked up on, too.

 

It's ok to have hope that Dennison will get more out of Tyrod, but realistically...I don't believe you can expect significant improvement. Nothing major will change in Taylor's game Unless he can master the basics that he still has major trouble with.

[Rochesterfan]

If what you say about Fahey is true, which I assume is the case since you are a respected poster, then this guy has absolutely ZERO credibility in what he does if you ask me.

Just another case of Transplant reaching as far as he has to in order to achieve his confirmation bias. He would tell us Stevie Wonders evaluation of Tyrod was something worthwhile if it furthered his crusade.

It really is laughable anymore at this point. The lengths the OP goes to for a guy that at best is nothing more than a middling option with major weaknesses on basic QB skills only makes me question him as a legitimate poster. It's to the point of obsessive trolling IMO, and that's hard to respect.

Fahey is interesting person to listen to and hear his discussions - I would not say he has zero credibility - he does look at the film and does compare people from the film. He also seems to understand some of his limitations (at least when you hear him talk).

 

As I have stated a few times in this thread - I think his numbers and thoughts make sense - the issue I have is trying to use those numbers to make a valid ranking of TT. I think the numbers look good because of the offense and the throw choices.

 

The truth falls someplace down the middle - TT was not a very good QB last year and even the OP recognized that as he was ready to move on after the Pittsburgh game, but somehow the last 2 games - Cleveland and Miami - changed his mind totally. I personally don't care - I want to see a winner - I do not think that TT will bring that - I think TT will be exactly what he has shown - a middle of the road QB that is just holding down the spot.

[Figster]

It doesn't really matter who Tyrods OC is IMO. You are really only going to be able to do so much with a limited passer. The last two season's we ran alot and only gave Taylor what he could handle, and you have seen the results. Team's have figured out that Taylor is getting by on more playmaking than actual passing ability. Dennison will come up with some more smoke and mirrors stuff to utilize the unique skill set Tyrod has, but that stuff has a shelf life and will ultimately get picked up on, too.

 

It's ok to have hope that Dennison will get more out of Tyrod, but realistically...I don't believe you can expect significant improvement. Nothing major will change in Taylor's game Unless he can master the basics that he still has major trouble with.

Taylor's height disadvantage begs to differ in my humble opinion Crusher.

 

A more innovative approach in Taylors positioning on the field, horizontal passing and more user friendly system should help elevate Tyrod Taylors play IMO.

[Rochesterfan]

Taylor's height disadvantage begs to differ in my humble opinion Crusher.

 

A more innovative approach in Taylors positioning on the field, horizontal passing and more user friendly system should help elevate Tyrod Taylors play IMO.

It might - I think he is better out of the pocket, but he will also be exposed a bit more.

 

It will be interesting to see because I remember having discussions if the Bills looked more at how NO used Bree's could that help TT and it was polarizing as everything seems to be.

[Crusher]

It might - I think he is better out of the pocket, but he will also be exposed a bit more.

 

It will be interesting to see because I remember having discussions if the Bills looked more at how NO used Bree's could that help TT and it was polarizing as everything seems to be.

I haven't seen anything that tells me he will be able to process what's going on at the level that a player like Brees does, which allows him to be successful.

 

In theory, I could see why some may have hope that getting out of the pocket more will help him more, but I'm skeptical. I think he lacks some of the mental aspects that those really good passers have.

 

The good news is that we shall find out...

Edited May 10, 2017 by Crusher

[transplantbillsfan]

 

First this has thread has gone all over the place, but it keeps going to extremes when in actuality the extremes are not the issue - Is TT the best or worst QB in the league - Nope - he is a middling QB. He puts up good numbers in some categories and lower numbers in others. He will never be confused with an Aaron Rodgers or a EJ Manuel - he is just a guy in the middle of the pack - same as Alex Smith or Siemian or Tannehill.

 

If you have ever listened to Fahey - he admits he is a numbers/analytics guy. He is very new to football and he readily admits that there are many nuances that he does not fully understand - he watches film and makes counts of situations. Therefore he bases many of his decisions on the numbers strictly and makes some mistakes (as everyone does) because of how the numbers and the play look. That is not good or bad - it is who he is.

 

One of the things I think he is very wrong about is Wins if Transplant is quoting him correctly. There is not a set percentage that you can attribute to wins, but QB play is the single biggest driver of wins and losses in the NFL. It is why a QB change prior to a game can move the point spread as much as 4-6 points in some cases. It is why an injury to a QB in preseason can change a projected teams win/lost record by 3-4 games whereas any other position player going out has almost no impact.

 

Look at the Bills - having TT as the QB - the Bills are projected to be a 6-7 win team. What would you expectations be is Yates takes over as the starting QB. The projected win total drops to what 3 wins and that is a change from a middling QB to a lower tier QB. Conversely if the Bills had Brady/Rodgers/Big Ben - the win total would go up to 8-10. The QB matters in individual games and over the course of a season. Every win or every lose is not on the QB alone, but when you get to the end of the year - it gives a pretty good idea of the trend of the QB play.

 

Shaw has brought up several times how TT numbers in the 4th quarter are not bad, but are essentially very consistent across quarters and across situations and that does not surprise me because late in games - you do not see TT take many additional risks or make a higher percentage of plays (or fail more because of interceptions) - he is steady.

 

Overall the biggest issue I have with this entire thread is when we are talking about Fahey's ranking - he lists most of the rankings based on percentage and that makes an assumption that if TT threw the same numbers of passes as other Abs - those percentages do not change and that is where I have my concerns. TT had an average TD percentage, but his 17 TD passes and his 201 yards/game put him near the very bottom of the league in raw numbers (24th and 31st respectively). Those fall right in line with where his attempts per game and other raw stats fall. It is part of the reason QB play is difficult to quantitate using stats.

 

What he means is he was asked to do very little - he did many things well, but did not excel in any phase of the game - he is fairly consistent. He is the very definition of a journeyman QB. A guy that can get you through games, but not a QB that is going to suddenly explode. He is a good bridge QB and that is why they got him on what is essentially a 1 year deal - rather than his previous essentially 3 year deal and the Bills have some options to decide how they want to go forward.

 

I think all of these are the right conversations to have.

 

I think all your points are valid. I'm not going to quibble with definitions (I disagree with your final statements about "journeyman QB" and "Bridge QB," for example), but I want to clear up something you misrepresented from me at the beginning. Fahey himself that QB is the single biggest driver of success or failure on the football field. But he's saying the significance people give is much too high to even a player at the most important position on the field when there are 10 other guys on the field playing offense at the same time, 11 other guys playing defense when the offense is off the field, and 11 guys playing special teams on the plays that those plays happen.

 

The number 1 golfer in the world right now is Dustin Johnson. Would the smart money be on Dustin Johnson or the field if you're betting on whatever his next tournament is? Johnson might have a greater chance of winning putting him up against any other single individual golfer, but not when you put everyone else together.

 

It's similar with QB. People want to attribute ridiculously high %s (40%-50%) to a QB for wins and losses, so that means you're leaving 50%-60% to spread around to 32 other players and the Head Coach, not to mention whatever other factors there are.

 

His simple point is that while QB is the most important individual on the field, he always gets way too much credit for the good and way too much blame for the bad.

If what you say about Fahey is true, which I assume is the case since you are a respected poster, then this guy has absolutely ZERO credibility in what he does if you ask me.

 

Just another case of Transplant reaching as far as he has to in order to achieve his confirmation bias. He would tell us Stevie Wonders evaluation of Tyrod was something worthwhile if it furthered his crusade.

 

It really is laughable anymore at this point. The lengths the OP goes to for a guy that at best is nothing more than a middling option with major weaknesses on basic QB skills only makes me question him as a legitimate poster. It's to the point of obsessive trolling IMO, and that's hard to respect.

 

What ridiculous hyperbole... if you think what RF just said about Fahey means he has zero credibility, I think you misunderstood what that post said.

 

Read it again.

 

Whatever Crusher, I hoped you would try to be more even keeled over on a new message board to recreate yourself.

 

Guess not...

Edited May 10, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[BuffaloHokie13]

It doesn't really matter who Tyrods OC is IMO. You are really only going to be able to do so much with a limited passer. The last two season's we ran alot and only gave Taylor what he could handle, and you have seen the results. Team's have figured out that Taylor is getting by on more playmaking than actual passing ability. Dennison will come up with some more smoke and mirrors stuff to utilize the unique skill set Tyrod has, but that stuff has a shelf life and will ultimately get picked up on, too.

 

It's ok to have hope that Dennison will get more out of Tyrod, but realistically...I don't believe you can expect significant improvement. Nothing major will change in Taylor's game Unless he can master the basics that he still has major trouble with.

If you're a film & concepts kind of guy I highly recommend watching as much of the 2016 Seahawks and Broncos as you can.

[transplantbillsfan]

Fahey is interesting person to listen to and hear his discussions - I would not say he has zero credibility - he does look at the film and does compare people from the film. He also seems to understand some of his limitations (at least when you hear him talk).

 

As I have stated a few times in this thread - I think his numbers and thoughts make sense - the issue I have is trying to use those numbers to make a valid ranking of TT. I think the numbers look good because of the offense and the throw choices.

 

The truth falls someplace down the middle - TT was not a very good QB last year and even the OP recognized that as he was ready to move on after the Pittsburgh game, but somehow the last 2 games - Cleveland and Miami - changed his mind totally. I personally don't care - I want to see a winner - I do not think that TT will bring that - I think TT will be exactly what he has shown - a middle of the road QB that is just holding down the spot.

 

RF, yes, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

 

At absolutely no point does Fahey himself rank QBs himself. There are more numbers in here. I'm not going to do a disservice to Fahey, who (despite Crusher's pathetic sentiments otherwise) puts a lot of work into charting all of these QBs and is widely respected, by posting every single number he came up with.

 

I agree, some of Taylor's general success can be attributed to lower volume. Discussing how much of an impact volume had is reasonable. And even with that discussion, I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle:

 

It is NOT that Taylor's numbers will ALWAYS be exactly the same in terms of completion %, YPA, TD/INT %, etc if Taylor were passing the ball 500 times in a season.

 

however

 

It is NOT that Taylor's numbers will AUTOMATICALLY drop precipitously in all those same categories if he were passing it 500 times in a season.

 

You're right, it's in the middle.

 

You've always just assumed I'm not in the middle because of my posts. But I'm much closer to the middle than you think.

I haven't seen anything that tells me he will be able to process what's going on at the level that a player like Brees does, which allows him to be successful.

 

In theory, I could see why some may have hope that getting out of the pocket more will help him more, but I'm skeptical. I think he lacks some of the mental aspects that those really good passers have.

 

The good news is that we shall find out...

 

Mental aspects, huh?

 

What makes you say that?

[John from Riverside]

Fact, transplant will be next in the long line of TBD posters who lose their minds when their mediocre player finally fails. Say hi to Bills Fan 4 Ever for me.

First this has thread has gone all over the place, but it keeps going to extremes when in actuality the extremes are not the issue - Is TT the best or worst QB in the league - Nope - he is a middling QB. He puts up good numbers in some categories and lower numbers in others. He will never be confused with an Aaron Rodgers or a EJ Manuel - he is just a guy in the middle of the pack - same as Alex Smith or Siemian or Tannehill.

 

This was presented to you and you STILL post your crap

[Foxx]

 

Well, Dennison with Kubiak liked play action passing and roll outs/bootlegs. I think Tyrod is perfectly suited for those things.

 

Rex Ryan/Greg Roman Bills ran a West Coast passing offense too ya know - derived from Bill Walsh era.....Roman just liked to run the ball more than any other offensive coordinator.

 

I expect Dennison to throw more often for sure, but he is near middle of the road in number of pass attempts and middle of the road in run attempts. The Bills offense should be much more balanced - not necessarily pass happy.

i agree, Tyrod is more suited for the play action and roll out/bootlegs. what he is not well suited for is the 3/5 step drop and bam the ball comes out, which is a hallmark of the WCO.

 

yes, i knew that Roman's system was designed after Bill Walsh's system. Harbaugh and Roman sat down and studied tape and even talked to Bill about the WCO.

[transplantbillsfan]

i agree, Tyrod is more suited for the play action and roll out/bootlegs. what he is not well suited for is the 3/5 step drop and bam the ball comes out, which is a hallmark of the WCO.

 

yes, i knew that Roman's system was designed after Bill Walsh's system. Harbaugh and Roman sat down and studied tape and even talked to Bill about the WCO.

 

I've seen you say this a number of times now and I really wonder how true it is.

 

I actually think those plays are exactly the types of plays Taylor thrives off of. My issue has been that those aren't very often the plays the Bills offense would run.

 

Here's an article over at cover1 on this:

http://www.cover1.net/2017/03/tyrod-taylors-2016-passing-campaign-misinterpreted-misused/

 

There are stats posted in the article for how successful Taylor was in certain types of plays. And it indicates the WCO might be just what the doctor ordered for Taylor.

Edited May 10, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[John from Riverside]

 

I've seen you say this a number of times now and I really wonder how true it is.

 

I actually think those plays are exactly the types of plays Taylor thrives off of. My issue has been that those aren't very often the plays the Bills offense would run.

 

Here's an article over at cover1 on this:

http://www.cover1.net/2017/03/tyrod-taylors-2016-passing-campaign-misinterpreted-misused/

 

There are stats posted in the article for how successful Taylor was in certain types of plays. And it indicates the WCO might be just what the doctor ordered for Taylor.

Thank you for looking that up....I seemed to remember the work cover did on this but was too lazy to pull it up

 

We have to differentiate from what TT CANT do with what the Bills wanted to run on offense the last 2 years

 

Still.....I would like a better explanation on why TT threw to so many stationary targets.....it takes away from pass catcher's ability to get RAC