QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[PolishDave]

If these were the only two options, we WOULD be in a good position. Unfortunately, there's option 3: that Taylor plays mediocre which IMO is the most likely, and handcuffs a 1st time HC who, despite the apparant executive privilege granted from ownership, finds himself unwilling to risk making a move for a 1st round QB and instead contents himself to push the 'we're close' narrative while hovering around .500 for three/four years until he's inevitably fired and the process is repeated. And repeated.

 

Very unlikely. It is easy for them to move on from Taylor if they are uncertain about whether or not he is the best choice going forward after this year. The new coach isn't going to bet his career here on a QB he isn't confident in. And in order to be confident in Tyrod, Tyrod will need to play better than he did last year. Seems pretty cut and dry to me.

 

The bigger risk in not drafting a QB is if one of the existing backups gets to play 1/2 a season or more and he plays reasonably well but not stellar. That could push them to move on from Tyrod and NOT draft another QB next year. Then, yes you could very easily wind up in QB purgatory. Don't think it will be with Tyrod though. They will either have full confidence in him because of his great play this year or they will draft a guy.

 

You are WAY over thinking things though if you are worried about Tyrod being here this year based on your imaginary scenario next year.

Edited May 9, 2017 by PolishDave

[transplantbillsfan]

My bad.....I do admit when im wrong

 

As should be general practice

 

Not everyone does this...

 

*AHEM*

I said you almost make it seem as if he got the deal he wanted. No misquoting here.

 

 

Here's a good example of where you can practice admitting you're wrong.

 

These are your words directly from post #355 "The difference is that Shaw's guy was apparently absolutely certain that this was the deal he wanted."

[Shaw66]

Is it possible that your friend, throughout the course of your conversations on the matter, isn't familiar with the details of Taylor's contract, since as of yesterday you yourself were unaware of the amount of guaranteed money Taylor gave up to take the restructure?

Sure. But he's a pretty good football fan. And he didn't care much about the details. He negotiated contracts his whole deal, and his point of view is that he always can get more if you give him another chance to negotiate. He wants his guys to be free agents every year. Worst thing that can happen is signing your guy to a long-term deal that undervalues him. If you can negotiate every year, your guy is never undervalued.

[GoBills808]

 

Very unlikely. It is easy for them to move on from Taylor if they are uncertain about whether or not he is the best choice going forward after this year. The new coach isn't going to bet his career here on a QB he isn't confident in. And in order to be confident in Tyrod, Tyrod will need to play better than he did last year. Seems pretty cut and dry to me.

 

The bigger risk in not drafting a QB is if one of the existing backups gets to play 1/2 a season or more and he plays reasonably well but not stellar. That could push them to move on from Tyrod and NOT draft another QB next year. Then, yes you could very easily wind up in QB purgatory. Don't think it will be with Tyrod though. They will either have full confidence in him because of his great play this year or they will draft a guy.

 

You are WAY over thinking things though if you are worried about Tyrod being here this year based on your imaginary scenario next year.

See, this is just where we see things differently. You think he has this great potential which was unveiled in 2015 and were subsequently let down in 2016 when you thought he looked bad. Me...I saw the same guy both years: a wholly limited running QB who is exactly the kind of guy that will stick around for 3-4 years by showing you just enough to justify another season.

Sure. But he's a pretty good football fan. And he didn't care much about the details. He negotiated contracts his whole deal, and his point of view is that he always can get more if you give him another chance to negotiate. He wants his guys to be free agents every year. Worst thing that can happen is signing your guy to a long-term deal that undervalues him. If you can negotiate every year, your guy is never undervalued.

Does your friend bill by the hour as well as take a percentage? Because that would actually make sense, then.

[Shaw66]

 

 

The bigger risk in not drafting a QB is if one of the existing backups gets to play 1/2 a season or more and he plays reasonably well but not stellar. That could push them to move on from Tyrod and NOT draft another QB next year. Then, yes you could very easily wind up in QB purgatory. Don't think it will be with Tyrod though. They will either have full confidence in him because of his great play this year or they will draft a guy.

 

Dave -

 

I think your backup scenario IS the real chance of getting caught in QB purgatory again. Taylor gets injured or is underperforming and halfway through the season Peterman becomes the starter. He's apparently a cerebral guy, good decision maker, etc. If the Bills are running a short-passing offense, he could have a lot of success early (not unlike Trent Edwards). The Bills could get all excited about the guy and used their two first rounders to shore up other positions. Then we'd all have to wait and see whether Peterman becomes Edwards or Montana.

See, this is just where we see things differently. You think he has this great potential which was unveiled in 2015 and were subsequently let down in 2016 when you thought he looked bad. Me...I saw the same guy both years: a wholly limited running QB who is exactly the kind of guy that will stick around for 3-4 years by showing you just enough to justify another season.

Does your friend bill by the hour as well as take a percentage? Because that would actually make sense, then.

Percentage. He's been retired for years. Took the guaranteed money.

[Crusher]

Maybe I'll respond to your other comments later. For now, just about the contract.

 

I posted here or in another thread about the contract. I have a friend who used to be a sports agent. He represented some of the very biggest names in sports. Negotiating deals is his business.

 

I asked him about the Tyrod contract scenarios, and he confirmed that an agent absolutely would have told Tyrod to take the deal he has over the one he had. Absolutely. He said if you're in your prime, your freedom, your ability to negotiate another contract is worth a lot. He said it was a no brainer for Taylor to give up $10 million of guaranteed money in exchange for the right to become a free agent again in 2018. Absolutely no question in his mind.

 

Two years in a row, the Bills have come to Taylor asking for contract help. The first time was because he was going to become a free agent after 2016, and the Bills didn't want to be in a bidding war for him. Taylor said okay, but I need real guaranteed money. They negotiated and came up with the deal they came up with. Taylor wanted guaranteed money; the Bills wanted to tie him up but still have an out after 2016.

 

The second time, because Taylor's year wasn't great, the Bills came to him and said "we're not sure, we not another year to see how you develop. Plus, we need some cap help." Taylor said "I'll give you another year to decide if you want me, and I'll give you cap help, but I don't want to be tied up for six years." They negotiated and came up with the new deal.

 

Bottom line is that Taylor was not worried, at all, that the Bills would cut him. He knew he'd get another deal somewhere, and he also knew the Bills weren't likely to find a comparable QB any place else.

Sure seems there's alot of certainty being used here in regards to Taylor and his contract.

 

Confirmed, absolutely, no brainer, absolutely no question are all being thrown around in that post.

 

I think I'll stand by my post.

[PolishDave]

See, this is just where we see things differently. You think he has this great potential which was unveiled in 2015 and were subsequently let down in 2016 when you thought he looked bad. Me...I saw the same guy both years: a wholly limited running QB who is exactly the kind of guy that will stick around for 3-4 years by showing you just enough to justify another season.

 

I don't think he looked "bad" either year as a football player. I think he looked like an average NFL QB most of the time mixed in with spurts of elite talent both with his arm and obviously with his legs.

 

And I know that when he is playing QB for the Bills and the team is healthy, the Bills have 3 major offensive weapons - Watkins, McCoy and Taylor. With any other QB this team has had here since Taylor has been here and for some time before him - you would have had one less weapon.

 

By weapon I mean a guy who opponents are most afraid of (scoring a touchdown or making an otherwise huge play) on any given play no matter what down or distance and no matter where he is on the field.

 

And if this coaching staff can get the best out of Tyrod and the rest of the offense, that offense has the potential to be dominant in the NFL - so much so that at times defenders would be looking around wondering WTF? is happening and WTF just happened as they get steamrolled for another touchdown both via the ground and the air in under 2 minutes. That is my hope. Is it realistic? Probably not. Still my hope. Can't name another available Qb who would give me that kind of optimism on this team.

 

If the coaches don't get very good performance from Taylor for any reason, then I expect them to bring in yet another QB in the draft next year and try to build a dominant offense with them.

 

Dave -

 

I think your backup scenario IS the real chance of getting caught in QB purgatory again. Taylor gets injured or is underperforming and halfway through the season Peterman becomes the starter. He's apparently a cerebral guy, good decision maker, etc. If the Bills are running a short-passing offense, he could have a lot of success early (not unlike Trent Edwards). The Bills could get all excited about the guy and used their two first rounders to shore up other positions. Then we'd all have to wait and see whether Peterman becomes Edwards or Montana.

 

Yes. I could see the Bills getting off to a slow start this year. Then half way through the season the coach decides to throw in the backup QB and tank the rest of the way to get that draft pick. If Peterman starts winning some games and looks like he could be a franchise guy - well then maybe it influences their decision enough to avoid drafting a QB early or at all. Then this coach's career in Buffalo lives or dies with Peterman.

 

I just want a dominant offense again. (Defense too of course) I think the potential is there with this offensive squad if the coaches are the right coaches for the job. We shall see.

 

I think it is very possible that the coaches do a ton of quick passes and severely under-utilize Tyrod's special ability to extend passing plays into home run plays. I hope we see lots of plays that are designed to have the passer hold the ball for more than 3 seconds and throw a home run. Don't know. Just guessing.

[John from Riverside]

Sure seems there's alot of certainty being used here in regards to Taylor and his contract.

 

Confirmed, absolutely, no brainer, absolutely no question are all being thrown around in that post.

 

I think I'll stand by my post.

Go ahead...but your still just guessin

[Foxx]

Why would his agent say something that completely contradicts the "no brainer" shorter deal?

He's more likely to be wrong because his only evidence of this "practice" is TT. Meanwhile, virtually every other super star in the NFL in their prime has taken 6-7 year deals worth hundreds of millions.

 

I guess it's possible that TT has the best, most cutting edge agent on the planet. I remain skeptical of that version of events.

:hysterical:

 

thanks for the belly laugh.

[Crusher]

Go ahead...but your still just guessin

It's more of an educated guess based off of a long history of players choosing long term deals with guaranteed money and job security over high risk one year deals where you could lose tens of millions if things don't work out or you suffer major injury.

[John from Riverside]

It's more of an educated guess based off of a long history of players choosing long term deals with guaranteed money and job security over high risk one year deals where you could lose tens of millions if things don't work out or you suffer major injury.

Yes...of course your guess is a "educated guess" as opposed to other poster's....lol

[Shaw66]

 

 

I think it is very possible that the coaches do a ton of quick passes and severely under-utilize Tyrod's special ability to extend passing plays into home run plays. I hope we see lots of plays that are designed to have the passer hold the ball for more than 3 seconds and throw a home run. Don't know. Just guessing.

this is an interesting comment. Last season the Chiefs went to a quick-release game, much more than they ever had in earlier years. Smith was getting the ball out incredibly quickly. Three significant things happened. 1. Smith's rushing yards dropped dramatically. For the previous three years, he'd been one of the leading rushers among QBs. In 2016 he fell way back into the pack. 2. His sacks dropped way down. Just like Taylor, he'd run around back there and extend plays, which has a benefit and a problem. Extended plays often lead to gains you wouldn't otherwise get. They also lead to sacks you wouldn't otherwise get. 3. The Chiefs' offense didn't get markedly better or worse. For the past several years they haven't gained a lot of yards, and that didn't change. But they were generally a pretty good scoring offense, and they were in 2016. Not stellar, but okay.

 

So if your prediction is correct, Taylor gets the ball out quicker, it may be that the offense won't get worse, but it also might not get better.

 

This is one of those rat holes that transplant started us down in the beginning of this thread. It's very hard to correlate wins with min-stats, like how quickly someone throws the ball. The game is much too complicated to reduce to concepts like that.

 

However, as for Taylor personally, he becomes a much less valuable guy if you take away his legs. Without his legs, he's VERY ordinary.

[Scott7975]

If these were the only two options, we WOULD be in a good position. Unfortunately, there's option 3: that Taylor plays mediocre which IMO is the most likely, and handcuffs a 1st time HC who, despite the apparant executive privilege granted from ownership, finds himself unwilling to risk making a move for a 1st round QB and instead contents himself to push the 'we're close' narrative while hovering around .500 for three/four years until he's inevitably fired and the process is repeated. And repeated.

I'm hoping the new coach and whoever the new GM will be are smarter than that this time. Next year is the perfect year for them to take a QB with the extra ammo they have. I think they should do it even if Tyrod has a good year.

[Foxx]

Sure. But he's a pretty good football fan. And he didn't care much about the details. He negotiated contracts his whole deal, and his point of view is that he always can get more if you give him another chance to negotiate. He wants his guys to be free agents every year. Worst thing that can happen is signing your guy to a long-term deal that undervalues him. If you can negotiate every year, your guy is never undervalued.

nor over-payed. the knife cuts both ways. which is why most players in their prime look for long term contracts. with the average playing career length for QB's of 4.4 years, Tyrod would love a long term contract.

 

I don't think he looked "bad" either year as a football player. I think he looked like an average NFL QB most of the time mixed in with spurts of elite talent both with his arm and obviously with his legs.

 

And I know that when he is playing QB for the Bills and the team is healthy, the Bills have 3 major offensive weapons - Watkins, McCoy and Taylor. With any other QB this team has had here since Taylor has been here and for some time before him - you would have had one less weapon.

 

By weapon I mean a guy who opponents are most afraid of (scoring a touchdown or making an otherwise huge play) on any given play no matter what down or distance and no matter where he is on the field.

 

And if this coaching staff can get the best out of Tyrod and the rest of the offense, that offense has the potential to be dominant in the NFL - so much so that at times defenders would be looking around wondering WTF? is happening and WTF just happened as they get steamrolled for another touchdown both via the ground and the air in under 2 minutes. That is my hope. Is it realistic? Probably not. Still my hope. Can't name another available Qb who would give me that kind of optimism on this team.

 

If the coaches don't get very good performance from Taylor for any reason, then I expect them to bring in yet another QB in the draft next year and try to build a dominant offense with them.

 

 

Yes. I could see the Bills getting off to a slow start this year. Then half way through the season the coach decides to throw in the backup QB and tank the rest of the way to get that draft pick. If Peterman starts winning some games and looks like he could be a franchise guy - well then maybe it influences their decision enough to avoid drafting a QB early or at all. Then this coach's career in Buffalo lives or dies with Peterman.

 

I just want a dominant offense again. (Defense too of course) I think the potential is there with this offensive squad if the coaches are the right coaches for the job. We shall see.

 

I think it is very possible that the coaches do a ton of quick passes and severely under-utilize Tyrod's special ability to extend passing plays into home run plays. I hope we see lots of plays that are designed to have the passer hold the ball for more than 3 seconds and throw a home run. Don't know. Just guessing.

we will be running some version of the WCO.

 

the premise of the WCO is a short passing ball control offense. all of which incidentally, are areas that Tyrod is deficient in.

 

i don't see Tyrod lasting the year as the starter.

[BillsFan17]

Why are you saying things as fact when they themselves are speculation then telling others their ideas are speculation?

Reading comprehension isn't a strong suit is it?

 

Very opening of my post, I point out I'm speculating as well. Lol read first before posting

[John from Riverside]

Reading comprehension isn't a strong suit is it?

 

Very opening of my post, I point out I'm speculating as well. Lol read first before posting

Sorry bud...your not going to get away with that

 

"I'm sorry, but I can't get behind an ounce of what you are saying. It's pure speculation, the same way what I'm saying about players wanting longevity and security, is speculation. I'm basing mine off of recent patterns and trends of franchise players signing big term years.

 

Tyrod either took a new deal with Buffalo or they were going to let him go. That a forgone conclusion. They didn't want that hit on the books. His agent talks to other teams to gage the market, then Taylor renegotiated.

 

No one is saying Tyrod was bent over a barrell, but if he really wasn't afraid of being unemployed like you said, why not stand firm with that chip and let buffalo cut ties?

 

You as a person value your self to your employeer in a fashion to obtain the most for your services.

 

You don walk in, let them strip security of five years of career stability, for two because you are such a believer in you self. Any restructuring by a QB I can think of to date, involved the fiscal side not the years side. They have reworked their figures in order help the cap situation, not remove years.

 

Why did he take that deal he took with the years in the first place?"

 

 

You dont get to throw a waiving glance that you are guessing...then throw in definative terms into your guess

 

Nobody really knows....anyone that thinks they do needs to check themselves.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Except in this case the new coach brought in a new OC, who requested to work with our current QB, if possible, based on his past experience with the player.

Got link?

If possible but under what financial considerations?

What other options were there?

[BillsFan17]

Sorry bud...your not going to get away with that

 

"I'm sorry, but I can't get behind an ounce of what you are saying. It's pure speculation, the same way what I'm saying about players wanting longevity and security, is speculation. I'm basing mine off of recent patterns and trends of franchise players signing big term years.

 

Tyrod either took a new deal with Buffalo or they were going to let him go. That a forgone conclusion. They didn't want that hit on the books. His agent talks to other teams to gage the market, then Taylor renegotiated.

 

No one is saying Tyrod was bent over a barrell, but if he really wasn't afraid of being unemployed like you said, why not stand firm with that chip and let buffalo cut ties?

 

You as a person value your self to your employeer in a fashion to obtain the most for your services.

 

You don walk in, let them strip security of five years of career stability, for two because you are such a believer in you self. Any restructuring by a QB I can think of to date, involved the fiscal side not the years side. They have reworked their figures in order help the cap situation, not remove years.

 

Why did he take that deal he took with the years in the first place?"

 

 

You dont get to throw a waiving glance that you are guessing...then throw in definative terms into your guess

 

Nobody really knows....anyone that thinks they do needs to check themselves.

You chosing not highlight the part where I point out my point is pur speciation.

 

The forgone conclusion part has many articles that speak to that effect. That part isn't speculation. That part is something that had been reported on and if you Google it you will find it.

 

I'm not trying to get away with anything "bud." Again reading comprehension

Edited May 9, 2017 by BillsFan17

[transplantbillsfan]

If these were the only two options, we WOULD be in a good position. Unfortunately, there's option 3: that Taylor plays mediocre which IMO is the most likely, and handcuffs a 1st time HC who, despite the apparant executive privilege granted from ownership, finds himself unwilling to risk making a move for a 1st round QB and instead contents himself to push the 'we're close' narrative while hovering around .500 for three/four years until he's inevitably fired and the process is repeated. And repeated.

 

I should have phrased what I wrote better.

 

I think there will be a threshold for McDermott on these things. If Taylor plays mediocre again, like in 2016, the 2nd option I presented is more likely than the first. If Taylor is mediocre, it's possible Taylor will still be on the team in 2018, but the team will almost certainly draft his replacement in round 1.

McDermott - New Coach, new team

 

Typically with a new Head Coach you get a new direction at QB... Unless the incumbent QB is (a younger) Tom Brady or (a younger) Drew Breese or Aaron Rodgers, expect a switch sooner than later.

Saying I'm 100% wrong is just silly.

 

Taylor is an All-Pro in 2017 and the team makes the playoffs and wins a couple games and you think for a second McDermott wants to move on from Taylor?

 

Obviously that's the most extreme case, but McDermott is going to jump for joy if Taylor proves that the franchises answer at the most important position is already on the team.

 

And let's remember, out of ALL the OCs in existence, McDermott brought in the last guy Taylor worked with before he came to Buffalo. That says something, too.

 

 

Fine, you're not 100% wrong. How about 99.999% wrong to leave open that smidgen of whatever...

How do these things get twisted and spun so.

It was a forgone conclusion that Buffalo was going to let go of Tyrod if he did not take the deal.

 

No, it absolutely wasn't.

[BillsFan17]

 

I should have phrased what I wrote better.

 

I think there will be a threshold for McDermott on these things. If Taylor plays mediocre again, like in 2016, the 2nd option I presented is more likely than the first. If Taylor is mediocre, it's possible Taylor will still be on the team in 2018, but the team will almost certainly draft his replacement in round 1.

 

 

Taylor is an All-Pro in 2017 and the team makes the playoffs and wins a couple games and you think for a second McDermott wants to move on from Taylor?

 

Obviously that's the most extreme case, but McDermott is going to jump for joy if Taylor proves that the franchises answer at the most important position is already on the team.

 

And let's remember, out of ALL the OCs in existence, McDermott brought in the last guy Taylor worked with before he came to Buffalo. That says something, too.

 

 

Fine, you're not 100% wrong. How about 99.999% wrong to leave open that smidgen of whatever...

 

 

No, it absolutely wasn't.

Yes it was, by all accounts buffalo did not want that cap hit. It was reported heavily that Tyrod was basically done in Buffalo with that cap hit. They knew he was their best option oppose to the field, but if you really think they were holding onto him come hell or high water at that figure...

 

Does Google not work for certain people?

Edited May 10, 2017 by BillsFan17