QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[Shaw66]

I said you almost make it seem as if he got the deal he wanted. No misquoting here.

 

You can claim this deal is better than the old one...it possibly can be. It could also be a disaster if he suffers a major injury. And if he doesn't improve this season, he is likely relegated to being a backup and not seeing a whole lot of guaranteed money. This is why logic dictates you take the multi year deal with a good deal of guarantees over risking injury or short term deals with little guarantees if your play deteriorates.

 

I think we have reached agree to disagree status here, but I still appreciate your side of things.

I agree that we won't get anywhere, but you are misquoting yourself. You didn't say I almost make it seem as if. You said my friend was apparently absolutely certain Tyrod go the deal he wanted.

 

The point was that you're off base saying ANYTHING about the deal Tyrod wanted. The point is that he got a better deal than he had.

[section122]

The difference is that Shaw's guy was apparently absolutely certain that this was the deal he wanted. The word another poster used comes to mind here...ludicrous.

 

None of us here have stated that things as matter of factly. Some, including myself have simply noted how players normally look to get multi year deals with as much guaranteed money as possible...especially ones that are merely average. Also, with how common injury is in the league...players tend to not gamble against something not happening to them. The way Shaw worded it almost makes it sound like he leveraged a better deal for himself, and that is something else I simply can't buy into.

 

I contend his scenario is less likely from everything I've seen and heard about contracts and with the uncertainty of injuries and the very real possibility of team's not taking care of players beyond what they can get guaranteed. The numbers bare it out, as well. Most guys want multi year deals with guaranteed money. Big names will occasionally let a season or two play out in order to really cash in, but lesser players rarely take such risk.

To the bolded:

 

That is why I was saying we are all speculating and we are all only going to believe the narrative that fits us. For example you don't like Tyrod and think he wouldn't get his money on the market because he isn't good therefore he took a pay cut. It doesn't make it correct. Up thread I gave you Alshon Jeffrey and Terrelle Pryor who both this year took 1 year prove it deals to cash in. It isn't an impossible or even improbable scenario. YOU think Tyrod is average. Is it that unbelievable that TYROD doesn't he think he is merely average and therefore willing to bet on himself since he is set financially after last year?

[Scott7975]

I'll add some more speculation. How much of the contract renegotiation happened due to the Bills having little cap space. If the Bills had say 50 mil in cap space would they have just let the original deal stand?

[Shaw66]

Way off the original topic, but since this has turned into a general Tyrod discussion, something else occurred to me.

 

In these discussions about the contract, some people often say a QB wants a long-term deal because you never know when you might get injured and no longer be able to play. I was thinking about that.

 

How many QBs (other than those near the end of their careers, like Romo) have their careers ended by injury? Not many, I think. We may be seeing it happen to Bridgewater. RG III had his career changed by injury, and maybe ended. That guy who got all the concussions who the Bills brought in to start ahead of Manuel.

 

The point is that although it's possible that a QB will have a career ending injury, just like any position player, it doesn't happen all that often. I think that's another reason why low-priced long-term deals aren't very attractive to players. They know that they're likely to be able to play out their careers. They have good reason to believe that they have plenty of pay days ahead of them.

[PolishDave]

I'll add some more speculation. How much of the contract renegotiation happened due to the Bills having little cap space. If the Bills had say 50 mil in cap space would they have just let the original deal stand?

 

No. Very unlikely because of new coach. It would be the coach's decision. Doubt he would marry himself to Tyrod without having a prove it year first.

[Shaw66]

I'll add some more speculation. How much of the contract renegotiation happened due to the Bills having little cap space. If the Bills had say 50 mil in cap space would they have just let the original deal stand?

I think the Bills wanted (1) to be able to see another year of Tyrod before committing long-term and (2) cap relief. They got what they wanted. They had to pay for it. They paid by giving Taylor the opportunity to force a new deal on the Bills after 2018. They didn't go into the negotiation intending to do that. It's something Taylor asked for. The Bills would rather have had the old deal with just an extra year to decide whether to cut him. Taylor would have been a fool to give them that.

 

As I've said all along, both sides got what they viewed were improvements over the old deal.

[PolishDave]

Way off the original topic, but since this has turned into a general Tyrod discussion, something else occurred to me.

 

In these discussions about the contract, some people often say a QB wants a long-term deal because you never know when you might get injured and no longer be able to play. I was thinking about that.

 

How many QBs (other than those near the end of their careers, like Romo) have their careers ended by injury? Not many, I think. We may be seeing it happen to Bridgewater. RG III had his career changed by injury, and maybe ended. That guy who got all the concussions who the Bills brought in to start ahead of Manuel.

 

The point is that although it's possible that a QB will have a career ending injury, just like any position player, it doesn't happen all that often. I think that's another reason why low-priced long-term deals aren't very attractive to players. They know that they're likely to be able to play out their careers. They have good reason to believe that they have plenty of pay days ahead of them.

 

Like you said before, it is about guaranteed money because the players can count on that money going into their pockets. Ask former players - like Donald Jones on the John Murhpy show for example - he will say it is mostly about guaranteed money. They want money that teams can't back out of for any reason.

 

Your posts have been excellent in this thread. Very clear and well written. Hard to find fault with most of what you said. Good work sir!

[Shaw66]

 

No. Very unlikely because of new coach. It would be the coach's decision. Doubt he would marry himself to Tyrod without having a prove it year first.

I think you're right. They would have been looking for the extra year they got.

 

But once they decided to renegotiate, getting more cap room became an objective, for sure.

 

Like you said before, it is about guaranteed money because the players can count on that money going into their pockets. Ask former players - like Donald Jones on the John Murhpy show for example - he will say it is mostly about guaranteed money. They want money that teams can't back out of for any reason.

 

Your posts have been excellent in this thread. Very clear and well written. Hard to find fault with most of what you said. Good work sir!

Thanks.

 

But the analysis gets complicated because Taylor gave back guaranteed money. Who does that?

 

Some people say it's evidence that the Bills had him over a barrel. He was worried that he would get cut and no one else would pay him more than a couple million to be a backup.

 

I don't believe that for a minute. Most of the real experts - retired QBs turned commentators, were saying Taylor is a legitimate starter in the NFL. His numbers certainly back up that notion. Not great, but better than backups and better than at least a half dozen to a dozen 2016 starters. Someone would pay him if the Bills didn't want him (without even looking, the Bears, Texans and Jets would have been in the bidding. Probably the Broncos. But beyond that, McDermott would have wanted no part of going into his first season as a head coach with no quarterback. Where was he going to get anyone with productivity like Taylor?

 

Taylor was willing to give up some guaranteed money not because he was afraid he'd be cut and never get a good job again. He gave up guaranteed money so that he could be a free agent again. He said to the Bills "if you aren't willing to invest in me, I'm not willing to invest in you. You want help on the contract, you give me a way to get out. I can make my money someplace else."

[Figster]

Way off the original topic, but since this has turned into a general Tyrod discussion, something else occurred to me.

 

In these discussions about the contract, some people often say a QB wants a long-term deal because you never know when you might get injured and no longer be able to play. I was thinking about that.

 

How many QBs (other than those near the end of their careers, like Romo) have their careers ended by injury? Not many, I think. We may be seeing it happen to Bridgewater. RG III had his career changed by injury, and maybe ended. That guy who got all the concussions who the Bills brought in to start ahead of Manuel.

 

The point is that although it's possible that a QB will have a career ending injury, just like any position player, it doesn't happen all that often. I think that's another reason why low-priced long-term deals aren't very attractive to players. They know that they're likely to be able to play out their careers. They have good reason to believe that they have plenty of pay days ahead of them.

Myself personally, Tyrod Taylor and Cam Newton have both chosen to use the run game as part of their arsenal when attacking the opposition.

 

So from an injury standpoint when it comes to league longevity the odds/lines are stacked against them in my humble opinion.

[PolishDave]

I think you're right. They would have been looking for the extra year they got.

 

But once they decided to renegotiate, getting more cap room became an objective, for sure.

Thanks.

 

But the analysis gets complicated because Taylor gave back guaranteed money. Who does that?

 

Some people say it's evidence that the Bills had him over a barrel. He was worried that he would get cut and no one else would pay him more than a couple million to be a backup.

 

I don't believe that for a minute. Most of the real experts - retired QBs turned commentators, were saying Taylor is a legitimate starter in the NFL. His numbers certainly back up that notion. Not great, but better than backups and better than at least a half dozen to a dozen 2016 starters. Someone would pay him if the Bills didn't want him (without even looking, the Bears, Texans and Jets would have been in the bidding. Probably the Broncos. But beyond that, McDermott would have wanted no part of going into his first season as a head coach with no quarterback. Where was he going to get anyone with productivity like Taylor?

 

Taylor was willing to give up some guaranteed money not because he was afraid he'd be cut and never get a good job again. He gave up guaranteed money so that he could be a free agent again. He said to the Bills "if you aren't willing to invest in me, I'm not willing to invest in you. You want help on the contract, you give me a way to get out. I can make my money someplace else."

 

He is definitely betting on himself. If he is right he will hit a huge payday for that bet. Could be a payday with the Bills or with somebody else depending on factors. If he doesn't play well or if the rest of the team sucks bad enough even though he plays well, then his NFL career may have peaked.

 

Hard not to like a guy who bets on himself with big stakes. He is a confident competitor and has every reason to be.

[Shaw66]

Myself personally, Tyrod Taylor and Cam Newton have both chosen to use the run game as part of their arsenal when attacking the opposition.

 

So from an injury standpoint when it comes to league longevity the odds/lines are stacked against them in my humble opinion.

But all the running QBs who came before them didn't have career ending injuries. They slowed down and became less effective runners, but they didn't get knocked out of their careers. And Taylor was a lot smarter about taking chances last season. So I don't think injury is an unusually big risk.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

 

 

It is indeed.

 

For a while it was that he wasn't willing to restructure.

 

Which honestly you could understand with a six-year $92 mill contract.

 

But that was the original report.

 

Then the one that he was willing to re-structure but not willing to give up any money.

 

Feb. 9th: "It's pretty much an either or proposition, because, based on everything I've been told, Taylor is unwilling to agree to a restructured contract that would reduce his pay. He and his agent, Adisa Bakari, are firmly convinced they would receive every bit as much as the Bills would have to pay in accordance with the extension -- if not more -- in the open market."

 

http://buffalonews.com/2017/02/09/vic-caruccis-bills-mailbag-taylor-either-proposition/?utm_campaign=puma&utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1486679573

 

 

Then the new contract where his pay was reduced.

 

Oh, so nothing was actually directly said by Taylor. It's all, "from what I understand," which very easily could have come from his agent, whose agenda is obviously to get Taylor the most money while getting him with the team Taylor wants to be with.

 

Again, I provided you with a direct quote where Taylor said he'd consider restructuring. You're giving hearsay.

 

 

Foxxy, my mind remembers just find, thank you very much... unfortunately Thurm is twisting things towards his own narrative.

 

And now that Thurm has been proven wrong, we probably won't hear from him again for awhile...

 

Whoops!

Why would his agent say something that completely contradicts the "no brainer" shorter deal?

 

What? Are you confusing me with someone else?

Edited May 9, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[GoBills808]

 

I will say that I trust my guy. I trust him because I've known him a very long time, and because he operated for a long time at the highest levels of the sports agent world. He represented some of the very biggest names in the sports world. He negotiated as many big-money deals as almost any agent you can name.

 

So when he tells me what he'd tell his client in situations like this, I listen. No one else has to listen, but I do.

Is it possible that your friend, throughout the course of your conversations on the matter, isn't familiar with the details of Taylor's contract, since as of yesterday you yourself were unaware of the amount of guaranteed money Taylor gave up to take the restructure?

[transplantbillsfan]

I'd bet McCoach already has plans to move away from TT. Just an opinion. We'll agree to disagree.

 

Depends on what you mean by this.

 

It's obvious that McDermott at least has backup plans by acquiring that 2nd 1st round draft pick from KC. Totally agree with you if that's what you mean.

 

 

But if you think that McDermott is moving away from TT no matter what, I think I could say that you're 100% wrong.

 

We can argue over what level of play Taylor needs to play at in 2017, but if Taylor plays to a certain level, McDermott will be keeping him. That level is almost certainly better than 2016, so Taylor needs to improve his play on last year, but if he does by a lot, Taylor's staying.

 

Pretty clear that McDermott isn't planning on just tanking by bringing in an OC who's worked with the team's starting QB in order to give him some continuity and hopefully hit the ground running.

 

The Bills are in a great position right now. Either Taylor plays really well in 2017 and we use our extra draft pick to retool this team even more to become a quick contender

 

OR

 

Taylor plays poorly, is (probably/possibly) cut, and then the Bills find a way to draft "their guy" in the 1st round in 2018.

[Figster]

But all the running QBs who came before them didn't have career ending injuries. They slowed down and became less effective runners, but they didn't get knocked out of their careers. And Taylor was a lot smarter about taking chances last season. So I don't think injury is an unusually big risk.

Good point,

 

I do believe Taylor shows exceptional field vision and body control when running the football,

[GoBills808]

 

Depends on what you mean by this.

 

It's obvious that McDermott at least has backup plans by acquiring that 2nd 1st round draft pick from KC. Totally agree with you if that's what you mean.

 

 

But if you think that McDermott is moving away from TT no matter what, I think I could say that you're 100% wrong.

 

We can argue over what level of play Taylor needs to play at in 2017, but if Taylor plays to a certain level, McDermott will be keeping him. That level is almost certainly better than 2016, so Taylor needs to improve his play on last year, but if he does by a lot, Taylor's staying.

 

Pretty clear that McDermott isn't planning on just tanking by bringing in an OC who's worked with the team's starting QB in order to give him some continuity and hopefully hit the ground running.

 

The Bills are in a great position right now. Either Taylor plays really well in 2017 and we use our extra draft pick to retool this team even more to become a quick contender

 

OR

 

Taylor plays poorly, is (probably/possibly) cut, and then the Bills find a way to draft "their guy" in the 1st round in 2018.

If these were the only two options, we WOULD be in a good position. Unfortunately, there's option 3: that Taylor plays mediocre which IMO is the most likely, and handcuffs a 1st time HC who, despite the apparant executive privilege granted from ownership, finds himself unwilling to risk making a move for a 1st round QB and instead contents himself to push the 'we're close' narrative while hovering around .500 for three/four years until he's inevitably fired and the process is repeated. And repeated.

[transplantbillsfan]

I'm sorry, but I can't get behind an ounce of what you are saying. It's pure speculation, the same way what I'm saying about players wanting longevity and security, is speculation. I'm basing mine off of recent patterns and trends of franchise players signing big term years.

 

Tyrod either took a new deal with Buffalo or they were going to let him go. That a forgone conclusion. They didn't want that hit on the books. His agent talks to other teams to gage the market, then Taylor renegotiated.

 

No, it's not a forgone conclusion that Buffalo was going to let go of Tyrod if he took the deal.

 

That's more speculation. Your speculation.

 

Speculation is fine, but stop trying to pretend it's fact. It wasn't.

 

 

I've given my reasons a number of times why, but again, the moment Taylor said he'd consider restructuring on clean out day was the moment I'm sure OBD started salivating and putting out a whole bunch of misinformation in order to find a way to get Taylor to take less money.

 

What I just said is not fact... no more than what you said was a forgone conclusion. But what I said is about as reasonable as what you said.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I love the "I can't get behind an ounce of what you're saying" simply because despite also being reasonable, you disagree. There's nothing wrong with disagreeing, but what Shaw said and/or heard from his agent friend is pretty reasonable.

 

 

People need to stop adamantly presenting opinions as facts. It doesn't make your argument any stronger.

Edited May 9, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

Depends on what you mean by this.

 

It's obvious that McDermott at least has backup plans by acquiring that 2nd 1st round draft pick from KC. Totally agree with you if that's what you mean.

 

 

But if you think that McDermott is moving away from TT no matter what, I think I could say that you're 100% wrong.

 

We can argue over what level of play Taylor needs to play at in 2017, but if Taylor plays to a certain level, McDermott will be keeping him. That level is almost certainly better than 2016, so Taylor needs to improve his play on last year, but if he does by a lot, Taylor's staying.

 

Pretty clear that McDermott isn't planning on just tanking by bringing in an OC who's worked with the team's starting QB in order to give him some continuity and hopefully hit the ground running.

 

The Bills are in a great position right now. Either Taylor plays really well in 2017 and we use our extra draft pick to retool this team even more to become a quick contender

 

OR

 

Taylor plays poorly, is (probably/possibly) cut, and then the Bills find a way to draft "their guy" in the 1st round in 2018.

McDermott - New Coach, new team

 

Typically with a new Head Coach you get a new direction at QB... Unless the incumbent QB is (a younger) Tom Brady or (a younger) Drew Breese or Aaron Rodgers, expect a switch sooner than later.

Saying I'm 100% wrong is just silly.

 

There was no better option out there at the time.

 

No, it's not a forgone conclusion that Buffalo was going to let go of Tyrod if he took the deal.

 

That's more speculation. Your speculation.

How do these things get twisted and spun so.

It was a forgone conclusion that Buffalo was going to let go of Tyrod if he did not take the deal.

[BuffaloHokie13]

McDermott - New Coach, new team

 

Typically with a new Head Coach you get a new direction at QB... Unless the incumbent QB is (a younger) Tom Brady or (a younger) Drew Breese or Aaron Rodgers, expect a switch sooner than later.

Saying I'm 100% wrong is just silly.

 

There was no better option out there at the time.

Except in this case the new coach brought in a new OC, who requested to work with our current QB, if possible, based on his past experience with the player.

[Shaw66]

If these were the only two options, we WOULD be in a good position. Unfortunately, there's option 3: that Taylor plays mediocre which IMO is the most likely, and handcuffs a 1st time HC who, despite the apparant executive privilege granted from ownership, finds himself unwilling to risk making a move for a 1st round QB and instead contents himself to push the 'we're close' narrative while hovering around .500 for three/four years until he's inevitably fired and the process is repeated. And repeated.

That's certainly possible. But that doesn't have anything to do with Taylor. That just means the Bills picked the wrong head coach - again.

 

I really don't think that's too likely though. If everything we've seen in the past couple of months is largely McDermott's doing, he isn't going to be afraid to pull the trigger. In particular, it looks like they really want the trade down from 10, which means they were setting themselves up to take a QB if they need one or want one. If McDermott orchestrated that I doubt he gets cold feet when the time comes to go after a QB.

 

As for Taylor, objectively, if he has a good year (my measure would be passer rating above 94, they ought to keep him. If he's below 88, that'll be two mediocre seasons in a row and it's time to move on. In between, which certainly is possible, we'll see. If McDermott already has his heart said on a new guy, Taylor will be gone, or at least on the bench schooling the new guy. If McDermott is open minded, it'll depend on his view of why Tyrod wasn't good enough and whether it can be remedied.