QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[Foxx]

How can you call something lunacy that you admit may turn out to be a wise decision?

because the lunacy is Shaw's supposition, not what is borne out of the result.

 

capish?

[GoBills808]

I know it's been said before, but I think Taylor gets a mulligan for 2016. He had an awful head coach, a fired OC after two weeks, another one who comes inwho had never been an OC before, and an injury depleted WR corp. that left him with mostly scrubs. I'm sorry, but when Robert Woods (who is a pretty good No. 2) is your No. 1 WR for half the year - and Watkins is playing hurt the other half of the year - it's hard to blame TT for the Bills' 7-9 record.

 

This is the year he will have to put up or shut up. I'm a TT fan, but if he doesn't show marked improvement with a decent OC, at least two healthy starting WRs, McCoy, Clay, and hell, maybe Barnidge in the mix...then, yes, let's move on.

 

I'm hoping he steps up, because he's damn exciting and has the capability of being a very good QB.

This was said after 2015, and...well, let's just say some fans have a much higher tolerance for mediocre QBs than others.

[John from Riverside]

This was said after 2015, and...well, let's just say some fans have a much higher tolerance for mediocre QBs than others.

Yes that pro bowl nod and ESPN's free agent aquisition of the year thing did a lot to dampen spirits on Tyrod Taylor

 

He had a down year in 2016.....if he had a year like 2015 he isnt going anywhere

[transplantbillsfan]

So you're ignoring an example of how passer rating is flawed. Fine.

 

I've just illustrated how single season passer ratings aren't representative of QB quality, as there's a mediocre one every year. Taylor was that mediocre QB with a good passer rating in 2015, he slid to 18th this past season which is frankly a bit higher than I have him personally (owing to our QB rating-friendly system)...the fact that you're trying to conflate his last two years' passer rating (with his extremely low # of attempts, which should be weighted against him) with guys who have 10+ seasons worth of accumulated data is tenuous at best.

 

And I'm sorry...10 out of 10 and 21 out of 25 is not 'excellent correlation'. It's simply correlation. And that's not causation. And a statistician would say that a 16% margin of error is enough to throw your findings into an entirely different light. And this is why I rarely take the time to debate these kinds of things anymore...people like yourself who admittedly don't know enough about what they're talking about, yet are comfortable making pronouncements like you're trying to do here.

 

Wait... you were actually saying that Smith in 2011, RG3 in 2012, Kaepernick or Foles in 2013, and Wilson in 2014 were playing as mediocre QBs in the years they earned high passer ratings?

 

Or are you arguing that mediocre QBs can have years where they earn high passer ratings?

 

 

If it's the latter, I agree. If it's the former, not so much. I think you need different examples, to start, because Alex Smith in 2011 and Colin Kaepernick in 2013 don't really imitate the quality of Taylor's 2015.

 

 

The point here that Shaw has made and that I agree with is that while Passer Rating may be flawed on a small scale sample size. One game with a high passer rating means very little. But those random exceptions to the rule that you came up with (what was it... 40/40 for 200 yards and one TD vs. 20/40 for 350 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT) are going to become less and less likely.

[Shaw66]

Shaw, you keep saying it's $30 million guaranteed, but (having not looked at the contract in awhile) from what I recall, it's not actually $30 million guaranteed because the Bills have the ability to cut him at the end of this year.

 

Granted, there's a good deal of dead money involved, but Taylor is not guaranteed $30 million.

 

I could be wrong, but if I'm not, this seems a central premise of your argument and I just want to make sure you (and your agent friend) have the facts straight.

You're correct.

 

However, with the dead cap money, it's almost a certainty that the Bills will keep Taylor for the next two years. The only way the Bills would cut Taylor before the 2018 season would be if they found a great starter AND a better backup than Taylor this year. There's a good chance that Taylor will be the best player to start in 2018, and it's a virtual certainty that he'll be the best possible backup.

 

If someone beats out Taylor this year, it means he's better than Taylor, and it also means the Bills must be pretty good. If theyre good, then going into 2018, they'll want a good backup. It'll cost them at least a few million to get a good backup. The better move would be to keep Taylor - he'll have experience in the system, he'll be better than any backup they can get, and he won't cost that much more money for one year.

 

So I think it's extremely unlikely that Taylor won't be on the team in 2018. Possible, but not likely.

 

Plus, Taylor doesn't care. If he gets cut early in 2018, it will be because Peterman became a star, and that won't hurt Taylor's marketability. Look at Romo. If Romo were five years younger and not such a health unknown, he wouldn't be viewed as damaged goods. Taylor wouldn't be, either. He wouldn't be viewed as a star like Romo, but he'd be viewed as a good starter who came available.

[Big Gun]

Its a way of posturing IMO old school,

Could be.

 

If TT wanted to gamble on himself why didn't he just stand his ground and tell the Bills nope, not renegotiating and let them cancel his contract?

 

Wouldn't free agency be the best way he could have gambled on himself?

[GoBills808]

Yes that pro bowl nod and ESPN's free agent aquisition of the year thing did a lot to dampen spirits on Tyrod Taylor

 

He had a down year in 2016.....if he had a year like 2015 he isnt going anywhere

[John from Riverside]

Could be.

 

If TT wanted to gamble on himself why didn't he just stand his ground and tell the Bills nope, not renegotiating and let them cancel his contract?

 

Wouldn't free agency be the best way he could have gambled on himself?

Maybe he wanted to prove that 2015 was more the norm and not 2016?

Hey....Kobe's my man!

[transplantbillsfan]

Except that reports and all indications were that the Bills were going to not pick up the option on his contract and prepared to move in a different direction. TT would have become a FA where the NFL world would have been his playground and teams would have been fighting for his services (as some have said) thus driving up his contract and him receiving a whole lot more $$$ than the Bills new offer. So why would he turn that opportunity down? Seems like a better situation for him than what you or your agent buddy have said.

 

As Figster says below, why believe any report or indication?

 

It's like the pre-draft process... Chicago played the draft absolutely brilliantly to get their guy in Trubisky. Hell, even Trubisky was shocked he was taken. We have no clue if Cleveland (or some other team) would have taken him before Chicago at 3, but they managed to keep all their cards to themselves during the draft all the way up until the moment he was picked even after they traded up.

 

 

No one will ever know what really happened for sure or what the motives were from the time the season ended until the time Taylor renegotiated his contract, but it's a fact that Taylor said that he'd consider restructuring his deal right after the season ended. With a set date of March 11th to make a decision and CAP restraints and the ability to retain Taylor no matter what reports, negative or positive, came out, it would have been fiscally irresponsible for Buffalo to try to get Taylor to renegotiate.

 

You say Buffalo was prepared to move in a different direction. Where are those indications? More "the Bills were reportedly interested in ________" reports... ?

 

 

Sorry, no one can say they know for sure, and that's why anyone who says they know for sure why or how this happened deserves to be greeted with great skepticism.

I'll say it again all the stats in the world mean nothing if the result is a LOSS

 

Ummm... okay...

 

So you're saying stats only mean something in a win?

I know it's been said before, but I think Taylor gets a mulligan for 2016. He had an awful head coach, a fired OC after two weeks, another one who comes inwho had never been an OC before, and an injury depleted WR corp. that left him with mostly scrubs. I'm sorry, but when Robert Woods (who is a pretty good No. 2) is your No. 1 WR for half the year - and Watkins is playing hurt the other half of the year - it's hard to blame TT for the Bills' 7-9 record.

 

This is the year he will have to put up or shut up. I'm a TT fan, but if he doesn't show marked improvement with a decent OC, at least two healthy starting WRs, McCoy, Clay, and hell, maybe Barnidge in the mix...then, yes, let's move on.

 

I'm hoping he steps up, because he's damn exciting and has the capability of being a very good QB.

 

You've summed up precisely where I am

[GoBills808]

 

Wait... you were actually saying that Smith in 2011, RG3 in 2012, Kaepernick or Foles in 2013, and Wilson in 2014 were playing as mediocre QBs in the years they earned high passer ratings?

 

Or are you arguing that mediocre QBs can have years where they earn high passer ratings?

 

 

If it's the latter, I agree. If it's the former, not so much. I think you need different examples, to start, because Alex Smith in 2011 and Colin Kaepernick in 2013 don't really imitate the quality of Taylor's 2015.

 

 

The point here that Shaw has made and that I agree with is that while Passer Rating may be flawed on a small scale sample size. One game with a high passer rating means very little. But those random exceptions to the rule that you came up with (what was it... 40/40 for 200 yards and one TD vs. 20/40 for 350 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT) are going to become less and less likely.

The latter, obviously.

 

And as to your examples:

 

Alex Smith in 2011: 61.3% for 3,144 yards with 17TDs and 5 INTs. 90.7 passer rating.

 

Kaepernick in 2013: 58.4% for 3,197 yards with 21 TDs and 8 INTs. 91.6 passer rating.

 

Tyrod Taylor in 2015: 63.7% for 3,035 yards with 20 TDs and 6 INTs. 99.4 passer rating.

 

Is that a huge difference in quality to you? They had basically the same, conservative, looks-great-on-passer-rating-but-isn't-really-NFL-level-quarterbacking type seasons.

[transplantbillsfan]

This was said after 2015, and...well, let's just say some fans have a much higher tolerance for mediocre QBs than others.

 

It's not really that some of us have a higher tolerance, it's that some of us are able to step outside of ourselves as Bills fanatics and understand that while Taylor's 2016 year was, on the whole, disappointing, that there were a bunch of factors that negatively influenced the team as a whole and to varying degrees directly or indirectly impacted Taylor on the field, including:

 

- A turnstile at RT

- A WR corps that was, at one point, Walter Powell, Justin Hunter, and Brandon Tate

- An OC to work with in the offseason and start the season who reportedly was on the hot seat from the time the 2015 season ended

- A switch in OCs after 2 games

- A Head Coach who makes terrible coaching decisions like punting on the opposition's 41 yard line in OT

- A defense that yields three 200 yard rushers in one year

 

 

We understand that there's a human component to this and that there are tons and tons of variables that play into both QB and team success and that good QBs aren't just automatically good. If that were true, David Carr would have been the great Texans QB he was drafted to be.

 

What we're hoping for is that with the coaching change, there will be a lot less tumult and a lot fewer of those negative variables and if Taylor's season still resembles 2016 more than 2015, we're happy to move on and eager for the 2018 draft with 2 first round draft picks.

 

 

No one's happy with mediocrity. Some of us are just seeing the bigger picture differently from you and believe the bigger picture calls for some patience.

Could be.

 

If TT wanted to gamble on himself why didn't he just stand his ground and tell the Bills nope, not renegotiating and let them cancel his contract?

 

Wouldn't free agency be the best way he could have gambled on himself?

 

Because ending up with the Browns or the Jets might mean more money now, but it also means playing for the Browns or the Jets in their current situations.

[Figster]

Could be.

 

If TT wanted to gamble on himself why didn't he just stand his ground and tell the Bills nope, not renegotiating and let them cancel his contract?

 

Wouldn't free agency be the best way he could have gambled on himself?

The Bills team, his team means something to Tyrod in my humble opinion.

 

I also think McDermott was able to give Taylor confidence that staying was the right choice for his career going forward.(speculation)

[GoBills808]

 

It's not really that some of us have a higher tolerance, it's that some of us are able to step outside of ourselves as Bills fanatics and understand that while Taylor's 2016 year was, on the whole, disappointing, that there were a bunch of factors that negatively influenced the team as a whole and to varying degrees directly or indirectly impacted Taylor on the field, including:

 

- A turnstile at RT

- A WR corps that was, at one point, Walter Powell, Justin Hunter, and Brandon Tate

- An OC to work with in the offseason and start the season who reportedly was on the hot seat from the time the 2015 season ended

- A switch in OCs after 2 games

- A Head Coach who makes terrible coaching decisions like punting on the opposition's 41 yard line in OT

- A defense that yields three 200 yard rushers in one year

 

 

We understand that there's a human component to this and that there are tons and tons of variables that play into both QB and team success and that good QBs aren't just automatically good. If that were true, David Carr would have been the great Texans QB he was drafted to be.

 

What we're hoping for is that with the coaching change, there will be a lot less tumult and a lot fewer of those negative variables and if Taylor's season still resembles 2016 more than 2015, we're happy to move on and eager for the 2018 draft with 2 first round draft picks.

 

 

No one's happy with mediocrity. Some of us are just seeing the bigger picture differently from you and believe the bigger picture calls for some patience.

I'm not going to dispute that we suffered injuries, or that the run defense was a problem, or that the RT wasn't an All-Pro. I'm also not going to list the reasons why he should have had a better season than he did. I'm not real big on excuses.

 

And you're still missing my overall point. Other than a dip in passer rating which you guys follow so religiously, HE WAS ALMOST EXACTLY THE SAME GUY AS HE WAS IN 2015. Still missing open receivers. Still leaving the pocket too early, still to reliant on his legs. This is why I've been trying to get you away from passer rating, because other than a 2% drop in completion percentage and 3 less TDs than the season prior, he was (and still is) the exact same QB, just a little less so. What you noticed in 2016 as being flaws in his game, I recognized in 2015. He's still the same guy.

[transplantbillsfan]

The latter, obviously.

 

And as to your examples:

 

Alex Smith in 2011: 61.3% for 3,144 yards with 17TDs and 5 INTs. 90.7 passer rating.

 

Kaepernick in 2013: 58.4% for 3,197 yards with 21 TDs and 8 INTs. 91.6 passer rating.

 

Tyrod Taylor in 2015: 63.7% for 3,035 yards with 20 TDs and 6 INTs. 99.4 passer rating.

 

Is that a huge difference in quality to you? They had basically the same, conservative, looks-great-on-passer-rating-but-isn't-really-NFL-level-quarterbacking type seasons.

 

You don't think a difference of 8 or 9 is a fairly significant difference in passer rating?

 

As to the numbers like yards, TDs, and INTs, Smith and Kaepernick did that in 2 more games than Taylor. They averaged about 20 fewer yards than Taylor passing, just for starters.

 

(We're really talking passer rating alone, but if you were to bring in rushing yards and TDs his numbers look even better)

 

And I'd still challenge the question your asking that those were mediocre years for those QBs. They weren't great. But they weren't the negatively mediocre years you imply they were.

 

Again, you're the one who brought up these QBs and wins (you still haven't explained your point, you just tried to accuse me of confusing the issue even though I genuinely don't understand why you brought up wins if you weren't associating them with those QBs) and both of those guys were also on playoff teams, with Kaep making it to the Super Bowl.

 

I think most thought Kaep was a franchise QB after 2013, actually.

[GoBills808]

 

You don't think a difference of 8 or 9 is a fairly significant difference in passer rating?

 

As to the numbers like yards, TDs, and INTs, Smith and Kaepernick did that in 2 more games than Taylor. They averaged about 20 fewer yards than Taylor passing, just for starters.

 

(We're really talking passer rating alone, but if you were to bring in rushing yards and TDs his numbers look even better)

 

And I'd still challenge the question your asking that those were mediocre years for those QBs. They weren't great. But they weren't the negatively mediocre years you imply they were.

 

Again, you're the one who brought up these QBs and wins (you still haven't explained your point, you just tried to accuse me of confusing the issue even though I genuinely don't understand why you brought up wins if you weren't associating them with those QBs) and both of those guys were also on playoff teams, with Kaep making it to the Super Bowl.

 

I think most thought Kaep was a franchise QB after 2013, actually.

See above. You're talking yourself in circles.

[Crusher]

 

It's not really that some of us have a higher tolerance, it's that some of us are able to step outside of ourselves as Bills fanatics and understand that while Taylor's 2016 year was, on the whole, disappointing, that there were a bunch of factors that negatively influenced the team as a whole and to varying degrees directly or indirectly impacted Taylor on the field, including:

 

- A turnstile at RT

- A WR corps that was, at one point, Walter Powell, Justin Hunter, and Brandon Tate

- An OC to work with in the offseason and start the season who reportedly was on the hot seat from the time the 2015 season ended

- A switch in OCs after 2 games

- A Head Coach who makes terrible coaching decisions like punting on the opposition's 41 yard line in OT

- A defense that yields three 200 yard rushers in one year

 

 

We understand that there's a human component to this and that there are tons and tons of variables that play into both QB and team success and that good QBs aren't just automatically good. If that were true, David Carr would have been the great Texans QB he was drafted to be.

 

What we're hoping for is that with the coaching change, there will be a lot less tumult and a lot fewer of those negative variables and if Taylor's season still resembles 2016 more than 2015, we're happy to move on and eager for the 2018 draft with 2 first round draft picks.

 

 

No one's happy with mediocrity. Some of us are just seeing the bigger picture differently from you and believe the bigger picture calls for some patience.

 

 

Because ending up with the Browns or the Jets might mean more money now, but it also means playing for the Browns or the Jets in their current situations.

These are called excuses.

 

Shady and Sammy were hurt in 2015, and Rex and Roman were the coaches, but now since Taylor struggled in 2016, those guys were bums, and we conveniently forget that the players and coaches around him were pretty much the same. All the talk going into last year is that Tyrod would tear it up with another year under his belt and in Roman's system.

 

Funny how quickly the tide turned.

[transplantbillsfan]

See above. You're talking yourself in circles.

 

My bad... gotcha.

 

We agree, then.

[BillsFan17]

This argument is for another thread, but still I want to make the point.

 

TAYLOR DID NOT TAKE A CONTRACT CUT.

 

Taylor gave up about $10 million of guaranteed money so that he could become a free agent in two years instead of five years.

 

I know a professional agent. He has represented some of the biggest names in sports. I mean BIGGEST. I asked him which was a better deal for Tyrod, the one Tyrod had or the one he took in March. He said the one he got in March, no question, no question at all. He said he would have urged Tyrod to take the deal the Bills offered. Free agency in two years is worth MUCH more than the $10 million he gave up.

 

This idea that Tyrod gave in to the Bills because he had no options is just wrong. The Bills came to him with their hats in their hands looking for help. Tyrod gave them something they wanted in exchange for something he wanted - free agency.

 

If Tyrod plays the full season in 2017 and the Bills make the playoffs, Tyrod will get a new contract next year much better than the one he gave up last month. If that happens, everyone will look back and blame Whaley for renegotiating.

And yet, the alternative to taking the new deal was be cut...

 

I mean he's clearly betting on him self, because Buffalo can walk away just as easy if not easier with the new deal.

[Shaw66]

And yet, the alternative to taking the new deal was be cut...

 

I mean he's clearly betting on him self, because Buffalo can walk away just as easy if not easier with the new deal.

He wasn't going to get cut. There was no way the Bills were cutting him. The Bills had NO quarterback for 2017, and as we've now seen, they didn't want to draft one this year. You think McDermott wanted to coach his rookie year as HC with NO quarterback? No way.

 

What the Bills did was a much smarter way to hedge their bets on Taylor. They get to see Taylor for a year or two more AND they set themselves up to take a QB next season if they believe they need one.

 

They did the same thing with Taylor that they did with Watkins - they shortened his deal. And as I think about it, that's why they didn't extend Watkins. If they extended him, Watkins and Taylor would have become free agents the same year, and the Bills could franchise only one of them. The way they did it, they can franchise Watkins next year and, if Taylor really comes of age, they can franchise him the following year.

 

But in any case, Taylor wasn't afraid of being cut. On his two-year body of work, he would have ended up being the starter somewhere - Chicago, Houston, Denver, the Jets. He would have been the best option, by far, available to several teams. He'd have gotten $20-$30 million guaranteed somewhere, because there would have been a bidding war.

[transplantbillsfan]

These are called excuses.

 

Shady and Sammy were hurt in 2015, and Rex and Roman were the coaches, but now since Taylor struggled in 2016, those guys were bums, and we conveniently forget that the players and coaches around him were pretty much the same. All the talk going into last year is that Tyrod would tear it up with another year under his belt and in Roman's system.

 

Funny how quickly the tide turned.

 

It's too bad that you don't actually understand that you need to consider all the outside variables that influence QB play when you evaluate QBs.

 

And there are lots of outside variables, some that influence more than others.

 

 

My argument was never that Taylor needed to light it up in 2016, it was simply that he needed to sustain what was a pretty high level of play. I even remember giving specific criteria breaking all of that down, but at some point (and I was using "if Taylor has a Passer Rating 85-90, the team would have to really evaluate Taylor and all the factors involved with his decreased production before keeping him") the team would have to evaluate and determine if it would be best for the team to keep Taylor as the Franchise QB.

 

It's clear the Bills organization is now still in that evaluation mode.

 

But make no mistake, if 2016 resembled 2015 much more closely, it's likely Taylor wouldn't have been prodded by the media about being open to restructuring, Taylor wouldn't have said he was, and the team wouldn't have followed suit with a tumultuous non-committal (at least publicly) 2 months.

 

 

None of this matters. Taylor is still being evaluated and will be for the 2017 regular season.

 

If he plays more like 2015, he stays.

 

If he plays more like 2016, he's not here longer than 2018 as a placeholder because the team drafts the future.

 

If he plays much worse than 2016, I'd bet the team cuts him, takes the dead money hit, and finds a way to get the QB of the future.