QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[transplantbillsfan]

Yup.

 

It isn't decision time now. After the 2017 season is decision time for Tyrod, because that's when the Bills will have to decide if they're using their first-round picks to go after a QB.

 

And what I'll say what I've been saying since 2015: If Tyrod plays the essentially the whole season and has a passer rating in the 93-94-95 range or better, he's your guy. Think about it. If he has a passer rating of 95 in 2017, his career passer rating will be in the top 10, ALL-TIME. Even if someone wants to adjust the calculation of the passer rating to give more or less weight to certain numbers, a guy in the top ten all-time on the old system will be in the top 20 under the new system. Are you really going to cut a guy who's in his prime and is a top-20 passer? It's ludicrous.

Shaw, I'm with you here, but people seem incapable of actually understanding that hypothetical argument and lean toward being derisive when arguments like it are brought up.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if Taylor is able to get back to 2015 form in terms of his production and stay healthy on a consistent basis, he's simply not going anywhere.

Edited May 8, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[John from Riverside]

Shaw, I'm with you here, but people seem incapable of actually understanding that hypothetical argument and lean toward being derisive when arguments like it are brought up.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if Taylor is able to get back to 2015 form in terms of his production and stay healthy on a consistent basis, he's simply not going anywhere.

That is my feeling as well

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

It's amazing what wins would do for his rep. The Bills win three more games last year - Jets, Dolphins, Raiders, and whoever - and the Bills are 10-6 and in the playoffs. And let's be honest - the Bills didn't lose those games because of TT. Give Taylor the same stats and the whole board would be saying he's a franchise QB.

You bring up a good point. If the Defense was better and the Bills got 10 wins ..... How much of TT's game would have actually improved?

 

No much. We'd have the wins but the same QB who has shown when games are on the line the Team fails to score the needed TD.

[Crusher]

Shaw, I'm with you here, but people seem incapable of actually understanding that hypothetical argument and lean toward being derisive when arguments like it are brought up.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if Taylor is able to get back to 2015 form in terms of his production and stay healthy on a consistent basis, he's simply not going anywhere.

The problem here is that you're misguided about his production.

 

Even in 2015, his production was not high. It was better, but not to the level you seem to place Taylor at.

 

You are placing a premium on passer rating, a stat that is easily manipulated by a system that emphasizes low risk, high percentage throws. You were already exposed by GoBills808, who gave you the facts that you then pretty much blew off because you didn't fully understand them in regards to passed rating.

 

You can say and believe what you'd like. What you see from Taylor on the field isn't anywhere close to what you and a few others seem to believe he's at when talking about where he ranks in certain categories. It also appears that the Bills also do not agree since they took money and his job security away from him. He's going to have to learn to master the basics that he hasn't been able to for now six years going into seven in the pro's to be the guy beyond this season. The likelihood of that happening doesn't seem to be really high if you look at the guys who have suddenly figured it out after being in the league that long.

[Shaw66]

The problem here is that you're misguided about his production.

 

Even in 2015, his production was not high. It was better, but not to the level you seem to place Taylor at.

 

You are placing a premium on passer rating, a stat that is easily manipulated by a system that emphasizes low risk, high percentage throws. You were already exposed by GoBills808, who gave you the facts that you then pretty much blew off because you didn't fully understand them in regards to passed rating.

 

You can say and believe what you'd like. What you see from Taylor on the field isn't anywhere close to what you and a few others seem to believe he's at when talking about where he ranks in certain categories. It also appears that the Bills also do not agree since they took money and his job security away from him. He's going to have to learn to master the basics that he hasn't been able to for now six years going into seven in the pro's to be the guy beyond this season. The likelihood of that happening doesn't seem to be really high if you look at the guys who have suddenly figured it out after being in the league that long.

I'm happy to chat with you about this because you're pretty rational about it.

 

You're absolutely right about his production. In 2015, he didn't have enough yards, or enough TDs. The question about Taylor is whether he's capable of leading a team in a way, and producing at a level, that can get his team into the playoffs. You answer that question by looking at him and saying "I don't see it," which is one way to look at it. I understand that, but I look at his stats and say "well, if he threw more, he'd have the yards and TDs, and his running accounts for some, but not all, of his low numbers in passing production. His passing and running was good enough to have a top 10 offense in 2016, and it was the defense that kept them out of the playoffs." That argument can go around and around for a long time, as it has here and everyplace Bills fans get together.

 

However, until Taylor throws 30 passes a game instead of 25, we won't know. What we do know is that if all of his numbers increased proportionally throwing 30 passes a game, we know we had a QB.

 

I think we just have to wait and see.

 

As you may know, I think coaching has the most to do with winning, and I think QB play is second. I think nothing else comes close to those two. One reason I want to wait and see on Taylor is that the Bills had a lousy head coach for the past two seasons. He affected the play of a lot of players negatively, except the ILBs and a few others. Pretty much NO ONE on the team produced except the two Browns and Alexander. We're all anxious to see what a new coach will do for production generally, and I'm interested to see what happens to Taylor particularly. McDermott has spent several years watching Cam Newton. McD has ideas, I'm sure, about how to maximize Taylor's skills. And I believe Taylor is more coachable than Newton. Taylor's ego doesn't get in the way.

 

For me, it's simple: will the 2017 Taylor put up numbers like the 2015 Taylor or the 2016 Taylor? Will he throw more (those 12 and 15 attempt games are not the way to win)? You can say you've watched him and you know he can't do it, but that doesn't cut it with me. If Bill Parcels and Tony Dungy say it, I'll listen.

 

And, by the way, GoBIlls is just wrong about the passer rating. All of the best QBs have the highest passer ratings, and none of the lousy QBs have consistently high passer ratings. It's been that way for more than 20 years. The consistency of those numbers validates the passer rating as a good measure of good QB play. Like any average, It isn't reliable on a per-game basis, but decades of season stats show that it's reasonably reliable on a per-season basis and it's excellent on a career-basis. The fact that it may overweight some numbers doesn't invalidate it. How do I know? Because if it did, you'd find some bad quarterbacks regularly getting higher passer ratings than their play would seem to justify. There are none of those QBs. What you get is some guys having a season with a great passer rating but not being able to duplicate it. In fact, Taylor may be one of those. McCown had one of those seasons. Foles had one. But NO qb with three seasons of stats has a high passer rating who is not recognized as a very good QB.

 

Finally, in case you haven't read things I've written on the subject, you're completely wrong when you say the Bills took Taylor's job security away. Completely and totally wrong. When the Bills said to Taylor they wanted another season to watch him before they decided not to cut him in March, TAYLOR said "okay, if you want to do that let me out of my 6-year commitment." Teams WANT long-term deals because they don't want their players becoming free agents. Players WANT short-term deals because the short-term deals let them test the market over and over again. Players agree to long term deals only if the money is really good.

 

Taylor didn't care about job security. When you're making $100,000 a year working at an insurance company, you worry about job security. But when you made $7 million last year and your team is saying "we will pay you $30 million for the next two years," you don't care about job security. Once you have earned $35 million (which means you will have $10 million or more in the bank), you don't worry about job security. Ten million in the bank means you have $300,000 a year for life, before you earn another nickel At that point you worry about how soon you can negotiate for a new contract.

 

Taylor's old deal was slavery; with his new deal, Taylor bought his freedom. He gave up $10 million guaranteed (which he almost certainly will earn somewhere in the NFL if he doesn't stay with the Bills) so that he wouldn't be stuck with a $15 million contract for the last three years. Think about it - Taylor didn't have any job security in the back end of his contract. If Taylor turns out to be horrible, he would have been cut by the end of 2018, anyway - no job security. Presumably then he'd be out of the league. So what did he lose? $10 million, which is a lot to you me but not so much if you already have $10 million in the bank.

 

But if Taylor turns out to be good, under his old contract he's stuck with the Bills for three more years at $15 million a year. Under his new contract, in 2017 or 2018 he's negotiating a contract for five or six years that will pay him $20+ million a year and will guarantee $50 million or more. His downside was $10 million. His upside is $20 or $30 million. It was an easy decision for Taylor.

[Crusher]

I'm happy to chat with you about this because you're pretty rational about it.

 

You're absolutely right about his production. In 2015, he didn't have enough yards, or enough TDs. The question about Taylor is whether he's capable of leading a team in a way, and producing at a level, that can get his team into the playoffs. You answer that question by looking at him and saying "I don't see it," which is one way to look at it. I understand that, but I look at his stats and say "well, if he threw more, he'd have the yards and TDs, and his running accounts for some, but not all, of his low numbers in passing production. His passing and running was good enough to have a top 10 offense in 2016, and it was the defense that kept them out of the playoffs." That argument can go around and around for a long time, as it has here and everyplace Bills fans get together.

 

However, until Taylor throws 30 passes a game instead of 25, we won't know. What we do know is that if all of his numbers increased proportionally throwing 30 passes a game, we know we had a QB.

 

I think we just have to wait and see.

 

As you may know, I think coaching has the most to do with winning, and I think QB play is second. I think nothing else comes close to those two. One reason I want to wait and see on Taylor is that the Bills had a lousy head coach for the past two seasons. He affected the play of a lot of players negatively, except the ILBs and a few others. Pretty much NO ONE on the team produced except the two Browns and Alexander. We're all anxious to see what a new coach will do for production generally, and I'm interested to see what happens to Taylor particularly. McDermott has spent several years watching Cam Newton. McD has ideas, I'm sure, about how to maximize Taylor's skills. And I believe Taylor is more coachable than Newton. Taylor's ego doesn't get in the way.

 

For me, it's simple: will the 2017 Taylor put up numbers like the 2015 Taylor or the 2016 Taylor? Will he throw more (those 12 and 15 attempt games are not the way to win)? You can say you've watched him and you know he can't do it, but that doesn't cut it with me. If Bill Parcels and Tony Dungy say it, I'll listen.

 

And, by the way, GoBIlls is just wrong about the passer rating. All of the best QBs have the highest passer ratings, and none of the lousy QBs have consistently high passer ratings. It's been that way for more than 20 years. The consistency of those numbers validates the passer rating as a good measure of good QB play. Like any average, It isn't reliable on a per-game basis, but decades of season stats show that it's reasonably reliable on a per-season basis and it's excellent on a career-basis. The fact that it may overweight some numbers doesn't invalidate it. How do I know? Because if it did, you'd find some bad quarterbacks regularly getting higher passer ratings than their play would seem to justify. There are none of those QBs. What you get is some guys having a season with a great passer rating but not being able to duplicate it. In fact, Taylor may be one of those. McCown had one of those seasons. Foles had one. But NO qb with three seasons of stats has a high passer rating who is not recognized as a very good QB.

 

Finally, in case you haven't read things I've written on the subject, you're completely wrong when you say the Bills took Taylor's job security away. Completely and totally wrong. When the Bills said to Taylor they wanted another season to watch him before they decided not to cut him in March, TAYLOR said "okay, if you want to do that let me out of my 6-year commitment." Teams WANT long-term deals because they don't want their players becoming free agents. Players WANT short-term deals because the short-term deals let them test the market over and over again. Players agree to long term deals only if the money is really good.

 

Taylor didn't care about job security. When you're making $100,000 a year working at an insurance company, you worry about job security. But when you made $7 million last year and your team is saying "we will pay you $30 million for the next two years," you don't care about job security. Once you have earned $35 million (which means you will have $10 million or more in the bank), you don't worry about job security. Ten million in the bank means you have $300,000 a year for life, before you earn another nickel At that point you worry about how soon you can negotiate for a new contract.

 

Taylor's old deal was slavery; with his new deal, Taylor bought his freedom. He gave up $10 million guaranteed (which he almost certainly will earn somewhere in the NFL if he doesn't stay with the Bills) so that he wouldn't be stuck with a $15 million contract for the last three years. Think about it - Taylor didn't have any job security in the back end of his contract. If Taylor turns out to be horrible, he would have been cut by the end of 2018, anyway - no job security. Presumably then he'd be out of the league. So what did he lose? $10 million, which is a lot to you me but not so much if you already have $10 million in the bank.

 

But if Taylor turns out to be good, under his old contract he's stuck with the Bills for three more years at $15 million a year. Under his new contract, in 2017 or 2018 he's negotiating a contract for five or six years that will pay him $20+ million a year and will guarantee $50 million or more. His downside was $10 million. His upside is $20 or $30 million. It was an easy decision for Taylor.

There's alot here. I'll try to respond as best I can.

 

I believe GoBills808 hit the nail on the head with passer rating. It doesn't account for the systems these guys run. Now normally, it hasn't been manipulated the way it has started to be. QB's played in a passing system that was at least somewhat complex, and they either sank or swam. Now we are seeing guys like Kaepernick and Taylor...guys that have great physical talent, but not much in terms of actual passing or mental abilities in regards to the mental aspect of the position...which is the most important. Just like you say coaching is number one in terms of what's most important to winning, the guy behind center needs to be a reflection of that coach...smart, calculating, able to put guys in a position to win. Players like Taylor are being given the keys to the car, but they can't push it to it's limits. They run simplistic offenses that protect them from making mistakes and directing the offense by what he sees once the team's line up. I believe that this hinders the pass game, and which is why we have seen the struggles late in games when passing is paramount to winning. Limiting mistakes is good, but only at certain times. Other times you need to challenge the defense, make team's respect your ability to beat them with the pass, or just to possibly draw a penalty on guys when you need to keep the chains moving. What's happening in these crucial moments is a direct reflection from the reluctance of the QB to demonstrate the ability to make tough throws and really challenge the defense in that area. I've always said Taylor's stats are misleading, and the way the coaches have kept the kid gloves on him and have had to keep the pass game simple for him only confirms this to me.

 

And since we are speaking of coaching...I'll agree that it is huge. I'll entertain the idea that this staff could get more out of Taylor. How much more is debateable. I guess it depends on if you think the previous staff simply held Taylor back because they had a certain idea of what they wanted to do and refused to deviate from that plan, or if they just saw the flaws and weaknesses of the QB, and they relied more on the strength, which is the run game. The fact that Anthony Lynn came out after Roman was fired and talked about simplifying the calls for Taylor and limiting how much thinking he had to do makes me think it's more the players limitations than the coaching when it came to the QB. This staff will probably get the most out of Taylor, but if he can't master the basics, he's likely near his ceiling.

 

And lastly...I can't agree on the contract comments. I suppose one could look at it the way you have and see it as a win. I think most would see it as a huge gamble and a not very smart decision if both contracts were on the table. Injuries and uncertainty is far to commonplace in the NFL. If you have security and guaranteed money for years to come, you generally take it. A few guys gamble every now and then, but I haven't seen it pay off very much. I can't imagine many agents advise this approach either. Also, for Tyrod to be able to believe he's going to improve and do better on the market when he has only shown to regress, while also having to deal with injuries and a new coaching staff is a real stretch IMO.

 

The one thing I can always count on with you is discussion without you getting bent out of shape and behaving poorly, so I appreciate the post and as always welcome further discussion.

[hondo in seattle]

Passer rating is all about passing efficiency. It evaluates a QB on a per attempt basis: completions per attempt, yards per attempt, TDs per attempt, INTs per attempt.

 

But 6 of 10 for 60 yards is NOT equivalent to 30 of 50 for 300 yards.

 

Tyrod has been an efficient QB, not an especially productive one.

 

Sometimes you need your QB to drop back nearly every play and throw for 300+ yards. When Kelly had to do that, he often could. We have no evidence that suggests TT can do the same.

 

I think we all want a QB who's both efficient and productive in the passing game. But I'm appreciative of having a QB in Tyrod who's at least efficient with his arm, and productive with his legs.

 

And I'm anxious to see what Rico can do with him.

Edited May 8, 2017 by hondo in seattle

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Passer rating is all about passing efficiency. It evaluates a QB on a per attempt basis: completions per attempt, yards per attempt, TDs per attempt, INTs per attempt.

 

But 6 of 10 for 60 yards is NOT equivalent to 30 of 50 for 300 yards.

 

Tyrod has been an efficient QB, not an especially productive one.

 

Sometimes you need your QB to drop back nearly every play and throw for 300+ yards. When Kelly had to do that, he often could. We have no evidence that suggests TT can do the same.

 

I think we all want a QB who's both efficient and productive in the passing game. But I'm appreciative of having a QB in Tyrod who's at least efficient with his arm, and productive with his legs.

 

And I'm anxious to see what Rico can do with him.

 

One of the things Rex said in his 2 seasons. We need an effective passing game to compliment the efficient passing game.

The effective passing game never came into fruition on the whole.

[hondo in seattle]

 

One of the things Rex said in his 2 seasons. We need an effective passing game to compliment the efficient passing game.

The effective passing game never came into fruition on the whole.

 

I don't remember Rex saying that but it was a good point. As is yours.

 

The pass I'll give Tyrod is that he was working in a system designed by a guy - Roman - who's best at the run game and setting up an 'efficient' but not 'effective' passing game.

 

And the OC most of last season was a guy whose NFL career until then consisted of being a RB and coaching RBs. ALynn was not the ideal guy to take TT from efficient to effective/productive.

Edited May 8, 2017 by hondo in seattle

[BringBackOrton]

 

I don't remember Rex saying that but it was a good point. As is yours.

 

The pass I'll give Tyrod is that he was working in a system designed by a guy - Roman - who's best at the run game and setting up an 'efficient' but not 'effective' passing game.

 

And the OC most of last season was a guy whose NFL career until then consisted of being a RB and coaching RBs. ALynn was not the ideal guy to take TT from efficient to effective/productive.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we never see 2015 TT production again. He'll never reach those numbers again.

 

Roman/Lynn was the best OC for him.

Edited May 8, 2017 by jmc12290

[Crusher]

 

I don't remember Rex saying that but it was a good point. As is yours.

 

The pass I'll give Tyrod is that he was working in a system designed by a guy - Roman - who's best at the run game and setting up an 'efficient' but not 'effective' passing game.

 

And the OC most of last season was a guy whose NFL career until then consisted of being a RB and coaching RBs. ALynn was not the ideal guy to take TT from efficient to effective/productive.

On the other hand...Roman got the best out of Colin Kaepernick, who is a very similar player to TT. And they both had a strong run game to support the QB.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

I don't remember Rex saying that but it was a good point. As is yours.

 

The pass I'll give Tyrod is that he was working in a system designed by a guy - Roman - who's best at the run game and setting up an 'efficient' but not 'effective' passing game.

 

And the OC most of last season was a guy whose NFL career until then consisted of being a RB and coaching RBs. ALynn was not the ideal guy to take TT from efficient to effective/productive.

True that. The switch was temporarily effective because it varied slightly from Roman's complex playbook. Complex meaning too many plays.

Then reality set in again and the Offense was predictable again mid season.

 

I'd love to see TT take the next step, but I'm not sure its in his wheelhouse.

[Shaw66]

 

And lastly...I can't agree on the contract comments. I suppose one could look at it the way you have and see it as a win. I think most would see it as a huge gamble and a not very smart decision if both contracts were on the table. Injuries and uncertainty is far to commonplace in the NFL. If you have security and guaranteed money for years to come, you generally take it. A few guys gamble every now and then, but I haven't seen it pay off very much. I can't imagine many agents advise this approach either. Also, for Tyrod to be able to believe he's going to improve and do better on the market when he has only shown to regress, while also having to deal with injuries and a new coaching staff is a real stretch IMO.

 

 

Maybe I'll respond to your other comments later. For now, just about the contract.

 

I posted here or in another thread about the contract. I have a friend who used to be a sports agent. He represented some of the very biggest names in sports. Negotiating deals is his business.

 

I asked him about the Tyrod contract scenarios, and he confirmed that an agent absolutely would have told Tyrod to take the deal he has over the one he had. Absolutely. He said if you're in your prime, your freedom, your ability to negotiate another contract is worth a lot. He said it was a no brainer for Taylor to give up $10 million of guaranteed money in exchange for the right to become a free agent again in 2018. Absolutely no question in his mind.

 

Two years in a row, the Bills have come to Taylor asking for contract help. The first time was because he was going to become a free agent after 2016, and the Bills didn't want to be in a bidding war for him. Taylor said okay, but I need real guaranteed money. They negotiated and came up with the deal they came up with. Taylor wanted guaranteed money; the Bills wanted to tie him up but still have an out after 2016.

 

The second time, because Taylor's year wasn't great, the Bills came to him and said "we're not sure, we not another year to see how you develop. Plus, we need some cap help." Taylor said "I'll give you another year to decide if you want me, and I'll give you cap help, but I don't want to be tied up for six years." They negotiated and came up with the new deal.

 

Bottom line is that Taylor was not worried, at all, that the Bills would cut him. He knew he'd get another deal somewhere, and he also knew the Bills weren't likely to find a comparable QB any place else.

[Figster]

There's alot here. I'll try to respond as best I can.

 

I believe GoBills808 hit the nail on the head with passer rating. It doesn't account for the systems these guys run. Now normally, it hasn't been manipulated the way it has started to be. QB's played in a passing system that was at least somewhat complex, and they either sank or swam. Now we are seeing guys like Kaepernick and Taylor...guys that have great physical talent, but not much in terms of actual passing or mental abilities in regards to the mental aspect of the position...which is the most important. Just like you say coaching is number one in terms of what's most important to winning, the guy behind center needs to be a reflection of that coach...smart, calculating, able to put guys in a position to win. Players like Taylor are being given the keys to the car, but they can't push it to it's limits. They run simplistic offenses that protect them from making mistakes and directing the offense by what he sees once the team's line up. I believe that this hinders the pass game, and which is why we have seen the struggles late in games when passing is paramount to winning. Limiting mistakes is good, but only at certain times. Other times you need to challenge the defense, make team's respect your ability to beat them with the pass, or just to possibly draw a penalty on guys when you need to keep the chains moving. What's happening in these crucial moments is a direct reflection from the reluctance of the QB to demonstrate the ability to make tough throws and really challenge the defense in that area. I've always said Taylor's stats are misleading, and the way the coaches have kept the kid gloves on him and have had to keep the pass game simple for him only confirms this to me.

 

And since we are speaking of coaching...I'll agree that it is huge. I'll entertain the idea that this staff could get more out of Taylor. How much more is debateable. I guess it depends on if you think the previous staff simply held Taylor back because they had a certain idea of what they wanted to do and refused to deviate from that plan, or if they just saw the flaws and weaknesses of the QB, and they relied more on the strength, which is the run game. The fact that Anthony Lynn came out after Roman was fired and talked about simplifying the calls for Taylor and limiting how much thinking he had to do makes me think it's more the players limitations than the coaching when it came to the QB. This staff will probably get the most out of Taylor, but if he can't master the basics, he's likely near his ceiling.

 

And lastly...I can't agree on the contract comments. I suppose one could look at it the way you have and see it as a win. I think most would see it as a huge gamble and a not very smart decision if both contracts were on the table. Injuries and uncertainty is far to commonplace in the NFL. If you have security and guaranteed money for years to come, you generally take it. A few guys gamble every now and then, but I haven't seen it pay off very much. I can't imagine many agents advise this approach either. Also, for Tyrod to be able to believe he's going to improve and do better on the market when he has only shown to regress, while also having to deal with injuries and a new coaching staff is a real stretch IMO.

 

The one thing I can always count on with you is discussion without you getting bent out of shape and behaving poorly, so I appreciate the post and as always welcome further discussion.

I just got one thing to say about this post.

 

Much appreciated buddy

[BringBackOrton]

Maybe I'll respond to your other comments later. For now, just about the contract.

 

I posted here or in another thread about the contract. I have a friend who used to be a sports agent. He represented some of the very biggest names in sports. Negotiating deals is his business.

 

I asked him about the Tyrod contract scenarios, and he confirmed that an agent absolutely would have told Tyrod to take the deal he has over the one he had. Absolutely. He said if you're in your prime, your freedom, your ability to negotiate another contract is worth a lot. He said it was a no brainer for Taylor to give up $10 million of guaranteed money in exchange for the right to become a free agent again in 2018. Absolutely no question in his mind.

 

Two years in a row, the Bills have come to Taylor asking for contract help. The first time was because he was going to become a free agent after 2016, and the Bills didn't want to be in a bidding war for him. Taylor said okay, but I need real guaranteed money. They negotiated and came up with the deal they came up with. Taylor wanted guaranteed money; the Bills wanted to tie him up but still have an out after 2016.

 

The second time, because Taylor's year wasn't great, the Bills came to him and said "we're not sure, we not another year to see how you develop. Plus, we need some cap help." Taylor said "I'll give you another year to decide if you want me, and I'll give you cap help, but I don't want to be tied up for six years." They negotiated and came up with the new deal.

 

Bottom line is that Taylor was not worried, at all, that the Bills would cut him. He knew he'd get another deal somewhere, and he also knew the Bills weren't likely to find a comparable QB any place else.

It's a complete no brainer which is why every superstar in the NFL is on a two or one year deal. Holy smokes people.

[transplantbillsfan]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we never see 2015 TT production again. He'll never reach those numbers again.

 

Roman/Lynn was the best OC for him.

 

If that's generally true, then he'll end up being a long term backup / vet journeyman somewhere around the league.

 

2017 is going to be an interesting year.

[Blokestradamus]

I wish there was data for throws that you don't make.

[Shaw66]

It's a complete no brainer which is why every superstar in the NFL is on a two or one year deal. Holy smokes people.

When you get BIG money, you take the long-term deal.

 

You want a good example. Look at Russell Wilson on his rookie deal. That's EXACTLY what every team wants and every play doesn't - an under-priced long-term contract. If you're a player, once you sign the long-term deal, that's it. You're stuck with it. Why'd Taylor sign his? Because he hadn't made any money yet, and $40 or $50 million guaranteed was $40 or $50 million more than he'd ever seen his life. He was willing to give up his freedom to get that relatively big deal.

 

A year later the Bills came back to him and said to him "we need to change the deal. We need another year to look at you." Taylor said "it'll cost you. If you want another year, I want my freedom back." Eventually the Bills said "we'll give you your freedom back, but we won't guarantee you as much money."

 

It IS a no brainer.

I wish there was data for throws that you don't make.

You're absolutely right. That data exists, but the only people who have it are the coaches. The Bills coaches know the answer to the questions debated here all the time: Does Taylor miss reads and therefore miss open receivers? Does Taylor release the ball late? Does Taylor hold the ball too long? Does he do any of things more than QBs on other teams do? Do we care?

 

All questions the coaches can answer and we cannot.

[GoBills808]

When you get BIG money, you take the long-term deal.

 

You want a good example. Look at Russell Wilson on his rookie deal. That's EXACTLY what every team wants and every play doesn't - an under-priced long-term contract. If you're a player, once you sign the long-term deal, that's it. You're stuck with it. Why'd Taylor sign his? Because he hadn't made any money yet, and $40 or $50 million guaranteed was $40 or $50 million more than he'd ever seen his life. He was willing to give up his freedom to get that relatively big deal.

 

A year later the Bills came back to him and said to him "we need to change the deal. We need another year to look at you." Taylor said "it'll cost you. If you want another year, I want my freedom back." Eventually the Bills said "we'll give you your freedom back, but we won't guarantee you as much money."

 

It IS a no brainer.

No, it isn't. You may be trying to justify a particular set of circumstances, but realize that your argument revolves around the idea that a short-term deal for less guaranteed money was the better option for a 27 year old running QB.

 

It's totally not a no brainer.

[transplantbillsfan]

The problem here is that you're misguided about his production.

 

Even in 2015, his production was not high. It was better, but not to the level you seem to place Taylor at.

 

You are placing a premium on passer rating, a stat that is easily manipulated by a system that emphasizes low risk, high percentage throws. You were already exposed by GoBills808, who gave you the facts that you then pretty much blew off because you didn't fully understand them in regards to passed rating.

 

You can say and believe what you'd like. What you see from Taylor on the field isn't anywhere close to what you and a few others seem to believe he's at when talking about where he ranks in certain categories. It also appears that the Bills also do not agree since they took money and his job security away from him. He's going to have to learn to master the basics that he hasn't been able to for now six years going into seven in the pro's to be the guy beyond this season. The likelihood of that happening doesn't seem to be really high if you look at the guys who have suddenly figured it out after being in the league that long.

 

I'm going to repeat the argument I've made time and time and time again.

 

ON A PER GAME BASIS, if Taylor can do exactly what he did in 2015 every single year of his career, which means passing yards per game (217), completion % (63.7%), rushing yards per game (41), almost 2 TDs per game, and a turnover every other game, he will rightfully NOT be going anywhere.

 

That's if, and only if, he can do that every single year of his career on a consistent basis.

 

We saw a dip in 2016, so based on 2016 alone, he couldn't keep that up. And if 2017 looks like 2016 in terms of production, I expect the Bills to use their arsenal of 2 1st rounders and other draft picks (and maybe Taylor himself... ?) to trade up to draft the franchise's QB of the future.

 

However, if he's able to get back to producing all the numbers from 2015 or better, the Bills aren't moving on from him and it's doubtful they bother drafting a QB early again.

 

Again, I'm talking production. If he produces like 2015 or better, however he does it, he's not going anywhere.