GoBills808 Posted May 6, 2017 Posted May 6, 2017 There are lots of good statistics with which to judge QBs. YAC is probably the worst; it may in fact be entirely useless. The list goes, for 2016: 1. Brees 2. Ryan 3. Stafford 4. Flacco 5. Rivers 6. Rodgers 7. Bradford 8. Manning 9. Cousins 10. Smith That's not a bad list. It lends credence to the idea that YAC should be factored, however weighted, into a QB's evaluation.
Stank_Nasty Posted May 6, 2017 Posted May 6, 2017 (edited) Folks want a top 10 qb Hard to find these guys.... even still..... you would think they would have enough brain to realize taylor really isn't breaking our bank and keeping him doesn't mean we cant still look for a star qb. for the life of me I cant figure out why people think those 2 things have to be mutually exclusive. we can keep him at his reasonable price and still do the things necessary to find a young star prospect..... hence the move to have 2 first rounders in the bank for next year. it really shouldn't cause such an uproar. I personally think they are in a really cool position. We have a solid option at qb that has shown the ability to win as long as the rest of the team shows up, and we have plenty of ammo going forward to make a move at qb we deem fit. pretty cool scenario if ya ask me. Edited May 6, 2017 by Stank_Nasty
BillsFan4 Posted May 6, 2017 Posted May 6, 2017 (edited) As far as QB effectiveness is concerned, I don't think anyone would like to argue that Brady is not an effective QB. Yet it's not atypical for his air yards to be only 50% or so of his passing yards total. He makes his living with those short passes over the middle that his WR turn into 10-15 yd gains. My point is don't discount YAC as part of the measure of an effective QB. You are correct that they are affected by the design of the passing game as well as the QB's play. As far as I know, YPA includes YAC? Passing yards aren't high on the list of QB measurables in part because it turns out they are not strongly correlated to winning games. Stands to reason, right, a lot of teams rack up passing yardage in "come from behind" situations. I didn't mean to sound like I was totally discounting YAC. I really wasn't saying anything at all about YAC except that just don't like looking at total passing yards statistics because, for one, they include YAC. And also, like you said, passing yards are not strongly correlated to wins. Passing yards are simply a poor way to evaluate a QB. I'm not all that fond of air yards either, but they at least only show the actual yards a QB threw for himself. But Yards per Attempt correlates strongly to winning. I've seen statisticsl breakdowns that show the team that won the YPA battle also won the game almost 75% of the time in certain NFL seasons. Usually the best QBs in the NFL are also near the top in YPA. Here's a pretty decent article on the different metrics for evaluating QBs, for anyone interested. I don't agree with everything they say, but they do a pret good job of breaking down each metric. I would recommend giving it a read for anyone interested. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1691533-which-metric-matters-most-when-evaluating-nfl-quarterbacks Here's a few articles on YPA's importance. They have a lot of good break downs of YPA on that football nation site if you read around a bit. http://www.footballnation.net/content/pigskin-prophet-commands-sports-media-to-act/6947/ http://bleacherreport.com/articles/261433-nfl-stat-analysis-yards-per-attempt-more-important-than-you-think http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2013/7/8/4501716/nfl-statistics-yards-per-attempt Edit - I have no idea why the 2 bleacher report links don't work. I tried to fix them twice now. You will have to copy and paste them if interested. Sorry. Does anyone know, do bleacher report links just not work on this site or something? Edited May 6, 2017 by BillsFan4
John from Riverside Posted May 6, 2017 Posted May 6, 2017 even still..... you would think they would have enough brain to realize taylor really isn't breaking our bank and keeping him doesn't mean we cant still look for a star qb. for the life of me I cant figure out why people think those 2 things have to be mutually exclusive. we can keep him at his reasonable price and still do the things necessary to find a young star prospect..... hence the move to have 2 first rounders in the bank for next year. it really shouldn't cause such an uproar. I personally think they are in a really cool position. We have a solid option at qb that has shown the ability to win as long as the rest of the team shows up, and we have plenty of ammo going forward to make a move at qb we deem fit. pretty cool scenario if ya ask me. Your giving some folks too much credit The simple fact of the matter is some people would not be happy if we had Tom Brady at quarterback.....were in the playoffs every year.....all that.....some people are just not happy unless they are bitching about something. The simple fact is.....TT is a "good" qb Everyone wants a franchise qb The search continues
Stank_Nasty Posted May 6, 2017 Posted May 6, 2017 Your giving some folks too much credit The simple fact of the matter is some people would not be happy if we had Tom Brady at quarterback.....were in the playoffs every year.....all that.....some people are just not happy unless they are bitching about something. The simple fact is.....TT is a "good" qb Everyone wants a franchise qb The search continues little too inconsistent for me to be able to call him a "good" qb. but I certainly think he has some very good moments. I also find him just down right maddening at points. but as a whole I think he's a solid option. he's not breaking the bills bank nor is he stopping them from still progressing their search for a star prospect.... I think its really just that simple. dunno why people are losing their minds over it. but you're right. at this point, even if we find our way to the postseason and he has a solid year, there are going to be people in the stands that have their minds made up and wont buy in.
Crusher Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 even still..... you would think they would have enough brain to realize taylor really isn't breaking our bank and keeping him doesn't mean we cant still look for a star qb. for the life of me I cant figure out why people think those 2 things have to be mutually exclusive. we can keep him at his reasonable price and still do the things necessary to find a young star prospect..... hence the move to have 2 first rounders in the bank for next year. it really shouldn't cause such an uproar. I personally think they are in a really cool position. We have a solid option at qb that has shown the ability to win as long as the rest of the team shows up, and we have plenty of ammo going forward to make a move at qb we deem fit. pretty cool scenario if ya ask me. I don't think too many people have an issue with what's going on now. I was not happy with Taylor getting all that guaranteed money and being kept on that deal that was basically for a franchise QB. He regressed in most aspects, so he didn't deserve to keep that contract, and he doesn't deserve to be deemed the solution at the position either. This contract is much more in line with what he deserves, and his job security is year to year. He is being treated as the rightful stopgap or bridge QB that he is now, I'm ok with that for the time being. The problem is posters like Transplant trying to tell us that he is more than that. He will almost certainly reply and say he's not, but it's easy to see that he is saying it without actually saying it. My only issue currently is the posters that want to claim Taylor is good, and that he can be the guy. I believe that the Bills don't even see him as that anymore, and are just biding time with a guy who can keep the team afloat and keep fans in the seats...at least for the first half of the season. You can wish that TT will somehow get it in his seventh year in the league. That he'll learn to run a sophisticated system, anticipate receivers, and win with his arm when it matters most. It's just not very likely at this point.
John from Riverside Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 I don't think too many people have an issue with what's going on now. I was not happy with Taylor getting all that guaranteed money and being kept on that deal that was basically for a franchise QB. He regressed in most aspects, so he didn't deserve to keep that contract, and he doesn't deserve to be deemed the solution at the position either. This contract is much more in line with what he deserves, and his job security is year to year. He is being treated as the rightful stopgap or bridge QB that he is now, I'm ok with that for the time being. The problem is posters like Transplant trying to tell us that he is more than that. He will almost certainly reply and say he's not, but it's easy to see that he is saying it without actually saying it. My only issue currently is the posters that want to claim Taylor is good, and that he can be the guy. I believe that the Bills don't even see him as that anymore, and are just biding time with a guy who can keep the team afloat and keep fans in the seats...at least for the first half of the season. You can wish that TT will somehow get it in his seventh year in the league. That he'll learn to run a sophisticated system, anticipate receivers, and win with his arm when it matters most. It's just not very likely at this point. You think a franchise qb comes that cheap? What world do you live in?
Crusher Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 You think a franchise qb comes that cheap? What world do you live in? 40 million guaranteed in two years. What do you call that?
transplantbillsfan Posted May 7, 2017 Author Posted May 7, 2017 I don't think too many people have an issue with what's going on now. I was not happy with Taylor getting all that guaranteed money and being kept on that deal that was basically for a franchise QB. He regressed in most aspects, so he didn't deserve to keep that contract, and he doesn't deserve to be deemed the solution at the position either. This contract is much more in line with what he deserves, and his job security is year to year. He is being treated as the rightful stopgap or bridge QB that he is now, I'm ok with that for the time being. The problem is posters like Transplant trying to tell us that he is more than that. He will almost certainly reply and say he's not, but it's easy to see that he is saying it without actually saying it. My only issue currently is the posters that want to claim Taylor is good, and that he can be the guy. I believe that the Bills don't even see him as that anymore, and are just biding time with a guy who can keep the team afloat and keep fans in the seats...at least for the first half of the season. You can wish that TT will somehow get it in his seventh year in the league. That he'll learn to run a sophisticated system, anticipate receivers, and win with his arm when it matters most. It's just not very likely at this point. You should tell me more about what I think... you do such a great job with that
Shaw66 Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 even still..... you would think they would have enough brain to realize taylor really isn't breaking our bank and keeping him doesn't mean we cant still look for a star qb. for the life of me I cant figure out why people think those 2 things have to be mutually exclusive. we can keep him at his reasonable price and still do the things necessary to find a young star prospect..... hence the move to have 2 first rounders in the bank for next year. it really shouldn't cause such an uproar. I personally think they are in a really cool position. We have a solid option at qb that has shown the ability to win as long as the rest of the team shows up, and we have plenty of ammo going forward to make a move at qb we deem fit. pretty cool scenario if ya ask me. This is exactly right. Exactly. They have a decent quarterback who makes their team competitive while they look for either (1) Taylor to get better or (2) a better choice.
San-O Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 ADJUSTED COMPLETION % - 5th Huh??? :mellow: Hope you can find some other uses for that publication which cost $20: http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/completionPct
Shaw66 Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 40 million guaranteed in two years. What do you call that? $30 million. But let's not let the facts get in the way.
Shaw66 Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 little too inconsistent for me to be able to call him a "good" qb. but I certainly think he has some very good moments. I also find him just down right maddening at points. but as a whole I think he's a solid option. he's not breaking the bills bank nor is he stopping them from still progressing their search for a star prospect.... I think its really just that simple. dunno why people are losing their minds over it. but you're right. at this point, even if we find our way to the postseason and he has a solid year, there are going to be people in the stands that have their minds made up and wont buy in. This struck a nerve with me. I struggle with calling him "good," too. Maybe he's good. I'm not sure. Put his two seasons together and compare him to all the other QBs in the league for the same two years (which would leave Dak Prescott out), Taylor is someplace around 10th in the league. I thin his passer rating is about 12th, and he's the best running QB in the league. But you're correct - downright maddening. Those who cite his late-game performance are also correct - he just hasn't looked like a keeper in crunch time. He's done it occasionally, but not as often as we'd like or "good" QBs get it done. I'm more of a Taylor booster than most, because I believe he's still learning. I think he, like every QB, needed to get a couple of years playing under his belt. It's a bit of a setback to be starting over with a new offense, but even so, the couple years' experience, on the field, under fire, should make a difference. One of the reasons I'm optimistic is that he's an extraordinary athlete. He throws the ball beautifully, his throws have a lot of zip even though he doesn't have the size (leverage) of the bigger guys. A second reason I'm optimistic is his work ethic. He REALLY wants it. On the other hand, if others are right when they say he doesn't anticipate and he throws short balls poorly, he may never be able to correct those things. But for now, until something better comes along, he's pretty, uh, good.
Crusher Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 $30 million. But let's not let the facts get in the way. Better check your sources on that before calling me out. He was due 15.5 option bonus plus 12 million base salary, and 3.25 of his 2018 salary was guaranteed for next season. If on the roster on the third day of the league year for 2018, 9.75 became guaranteed. 15.5+12+3.25+9.75= 40.5 million
Shaw66 Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 Better check your sources on that before calling me out. He was due 15.5 option bonus plus 12 million base salary, and 3.25 of his 2018 salary was guaranteed for next season. If on the roster on the third day of the league year for 2018, 9.75 became guaranteed. 15.5+12+3.25+9.75= 40.5 million i DID check. Spotrac. $30.5 million guaranteed over the next two seasons. $14.5 this season, $16 next season. Don't know where you're getting your numbers.
Stank_Nasty Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 This is exactly right. Exactly. They have a decent quarterback who makes their team competitive while they look for either (1) Taylor to get better or (2) a better choice. This struck a nerve with me. I struggle with calling him "good," too. Maybe he's good. I'm not sure. Put his two seasons together and compare him to all the other QBs in the league for the same two years (which would leave Dak Prescott out), Taylor is someplace around 10th in the league. I thin his passer rating is about 12th, and he's the best running QB in the league. But you're correct - downright maddening. Those who cite his late-game performance are also correct - he just hasn't looked like a keeper in crunch time. He's done it occasionally, but not as often as we'd like or "good" QBs get it done. I'm more of a Taylor booster than most, because I believe he's still learning. I think he, like every QB, needed to get a couple of years playing under his belt. It's a bit of a setback to be starting over with a new offense, but even so, the couple years' experience, on the field, under fire, should make a difference. One of the reasons I'm optimistic is that he's an extraordinary athlete. He throws the ball beautifully, his throws have a lot of zip even though he doesn't have the size (leverage) of the bigger guys. A second reason I'm optimistic is his work ethic. He REALLY wants it. On the other hand, if others are right when they say he doesn't anticipate and he throws short balls poorly, he may never be able to correct those things. But for now, until something better comes along, he's pretty, uh, good. pretty darn accurate summary i'd say. I totally agree with everything here..... I've said it too many times already but I think it needs repeating sometimes around here. if I had come to a group of bills fans and said going into week 17 you'll have the 6th scoring offense and league record low 9 turnovers through 15 games, EVERYONE would take that ALL DAY EVERYDAY. anyone saying differently cant be taken seriously and is honestly trying to be difficult for the sake of it. taylor had ups and downs but at the end of the day he led a legit offense that would have been dancing in mid January if he had an support around him. namely on defense. Complete/well rounded teams can win a lot of games with a guy like taylor at the helm(nobody can convince me alex smith has been noticeably better than taylor over the last 2 seasons). steve young had said after the season ended, when taylors return was up in the air, that he would love to see taylor land with a "qb-centric" staff dedicated to helping him hone his craft. that he was very excited for the qb taylor may become..... I hope dennison brings that kind of love to our qb's.
Shaw66 Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor-7899/
Crusher Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 Scroll down and read the notes on his old deal. It's exactly what I said.
GoBills808 Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 If anyone's interested, Football Perspective is an interesting read for in-depth statistical analysis. I don't always agree with his conclusions, but he puts forth some good arguments on all aspects of the game. This is an article on QB stats, particularly YPA and it's various iterations: http://www.footballperspective.com/yards-per-attempt-where-does-it-go-wrong/. He makes the case that you can glean a fair amount of information from Y/A, NY/A, and ANY/A as they're fairly system-neutral, although it's impossible to totally eliminate the variability of a conservative passing offense vs. one that involves more high-risk throws. He also does a brief summary of YAC and its relative importance in QB evaluation. Taylor, in terms of Y/A, NY/A, and ANY/A, was ranked 21st, 24th, and 18th respectively, which is about where I have him ranked personally.
mannc Posted May 7, 2017 Posted May 7, 2017 The list goes, for 2016: 1. Brees 2. Ryan 3. Stafford 4. Flacco 5. Rivers 6. Rodgers 7. Bradford 8. Manning 9. Cousins 10. Smith That's not a bad list. It lends credence to the idea that YAC should be factored, however weighted, into a QB's evaluation. It's a pretty good list, but without context, what does it mean? It seems to me that YPA (or net YPA) is what really matters. Within YPA, there are air yards and YAC. If two quarterbacks each have YPA of 8.0, who cares if one has more YAC than the other? It just means the other QB probably has higher air yards per attempt. Which QB is more accurate? Impossible to tell. The one with more YAC is probably just throwing shorter passes, which tend to generate higher YAC.
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