QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[transplantbillsfan]

This is what happens on boards. You post something and some people interpret it one way or another.

 

TT is a decent QB and a good stopgap.

My argument IS that all this talk of how good his stats are does not equate to Wins.

 

If you choose to not accept my argument then there is no heed to continue this discussion.

 

You're right, people interpret things people post one way or another. Well, that's because it's based on what people say and the implications of what they say.

 

Shaw corrected the assumption that Taylor's passer rating was super low in the 4th quarter because it somehow furthered an argument. Doesn't it stand to reason that if the cited passer rating was incorrect, the argument would be at least weaker, too?

 

 

Also, and again, this has to do with interpreting what people say, but your 2nd to last sentence there sure does look like you're implying something about team wins as stronger indications of good QBs than stats.

 

You're probably going to come back and say that's not what you mean, but it sure looks like that's what you mean.

 

QBs with fewer wins than Taylor in 2016:

 

Rivers

Dalton

Newton

Palmer

 

QBs with the same number of wins as Taylor in 2016:

 

Brees

Wentz

 

 

Taylor's obviously not better than or as good as all those QBs, so this wins with QBs thing really needs to stop or be severely cut back.

[CardinalScotts]

for me I stops at the eyeball test, Tyrod is a good enough qb to make a wildcard spot. He's running is a crucial part of this offense and some want to ignore it, the job of the qb is to put up points ANYWAY they can and he does. Now is a 10 year starter ? Very unlikely but at least he will have some guys to throw to who aren't coming off their couch at home to start and a real opportunity to grade him out will be available.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

This is why I'm still a big fan of yards per game. Not as the be-all, end-all stat. But as an important component of any evaluation.

 

It's one thing to produce efficient looking numbers when you're throwing 15 times per game.

 

It's another thing to drop back on the majority of plays and challenge the D to stop you from getting the ball downfield and they can't.

 

I want to see Tyrod become the kind of QB who can do the latter.

This

Rivers

Dalton

Newton

Palmer

 

QBs with the same number of wins as Taylor in 2016:

 

Brees

Wentz

 

 

I'll take QB's who can pass the ball for $1000 Alex

 

Thanks for agreeing with me.

 

Good Stats do not = wins.

[BillsFan4]

This is why I'm still a big fan of yards per game. Not as the be-all, end-all stat. But as an important component of any evaluation.

 

It's one thing to produce efficient looking numbers when you're throwing 15 times per game.

 

It's another thing to drop back on the majority of plays and challenge the D to stop you from getting the ball downfield and they can't.

 

I want to see Tyrod become the kind of QB who can do the latter.

 

Are you talking total yards, or passing yards?

 

If you're talking passing yards, there's a reason it's considered low on the list of measures to evaluate a QB.

Passing yards isn't just what a QB throws for. It also includes the yards a receiver gets after the catch, and some offenses are better designed than others for YAC. Plus it doesn't take into account passing attempts either.

 

For example, Greg Roman's offense has always been near the bottom of the league in YAC (all 4 years in SF were near bottom of the NFL and his 2 years in Buffalo I believe we were dead last in YAC), and that's with a number of different QBs. I can't really just put the blame on his QBs either, because they were near the bottom in YAC with Alex Smith, who then goes to KC and is near the top of the NFL in YAC.

 

I think yards per attempt and air yards are a better measure to look at as far as passing yards go, because those stats don't have YAC added in.

I definitely agree that Tyrod has to improve his passing game though, that is for sure.

[WideRightRevenge]

So the arguments I see are Yards per Game, Yards per Catch .. .Yada Yada Yada

 

I'll take 4th Quarter Comebacks for a $1,000 Alex.

 

RING RING RING .. you hit the daily double ....

 

Wide Right Revenge bets $2,000.

 

The answer is "2".

 

Question .. Alex .. the Question is .. how many 4th Quarter Comebacks has TT had the past two seasons?

 

WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER

 

Throw all those stats out .. .last year Stafford had 8 .. count them 8 4th Quarter comebacks ... Carr had 7 (less years in the league than TT) ... Dak had 5 (a rookie mind you). Look for yourself.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm

[Crusher]

The problem with Fahey and his whole evaluation is that the QB data is flawed and therefor cannot be compared as equal. Different Qb's run different offensive schemes, and some require much more complexity, risk taking, and ownership to make adjustments according to what they see pre snap.

 

Taylor ran about as simplified and basic an offense as a QB can. Lynn did this after he couldn't handle Roman's offense.

 

Taylor's accuracy and turnover ratio is good when viewed through the narrow lens that Fahey is looking through, but when you look at what other QB's are doing in terms of complexity, responsibility, and the chances they take to make plays for their team, Taylor looks like a guy that doesn't measure up.

 

This is why people use the eye test and come away not being very impressed with Taylor and his numbers, and routinely find guys with more INT's to look much more capable at the position. Carson Wentz is a guy who you may come away unimpressed with if you look at his raw numbers, but he clearly runs his team's offense, and does alot to give his team a chance to win. I would take Wentz over Taylor with no hesitation.

 

The bottom line is that Taylor is the posterchild for misleading stats. What you see on paper looks good, but what you are actually getting on the field is below average production and an offense that fails when it matters most. Dare Taylor to win with his arm late in games and you are a virtual lock to win against the Bills.

[mannc]

The problem with Fahey and his whole evaluation is that the QB data is flawed and therefor cannot be compared as equal. Different Qb's run different offensive schemes, and some require much more complexity, risk taking, and ownership to make adjustments according to what they see pre snap.

 

Taylor ran about as simplified and basic an offense as a QB can. Lynn did this after he couldn't handle Roman's offense.

 

Taylor's accuracy and turnover ratio is good when viewed through the narrow lens that Fahey is looking through, but when you look at what other QB's are doing in terms of complexity, responsibility, and the chances they take to make plays for their team, Taylor looks like a guy that doesn't measure up.

 

This is why people use the eye test and come away not being very impressed with Taylor and his numbers, and routinely find guys with more INT's to look much more capable at the position. Carson Wentz is a guy who you may come away unimpressed with if you look at his raw numbers, but he clearly runs his team's offense, and does alot to give his team a chance to win. I would take Wentz over Taylor with no hesitation.

 

The bottom line is that Taylor is the posterchild for misleading stats. What you see on paper looks good, but what you are actually getting on the field is below average production and an offense that fails when it matters most. Dare Taylor to win with his arm late in games and you are a virtual lock to win against the Bills.

There is not a scrap of evidence to support a single thing you've said here. For example, your statement that Wentz "does a lot to give his team a chance to win" is utterly meaningless, and is certainly not supported by the objective fact that the Eagles, after starting the season 3-0, finished 7-9, even though they had a far better defense than Buffalo did last year. And as you acknowledge, Wentz's numbers, especially after the first four games, were worse than Tyrod's. What's your explanation for that?

 

Tyrod is not a great QB, but he's also far from terrible. Fahey's stats are an attempt to provide context and insight beyond the usual numbers like completion percentage, TD/int. ratio, etc. They aren't necessarily the final word, but they undeniably provide a deeper, evidence-based perspective on QB performance.

[Shaw66]

Crushed makes a lot of good points but I think its too conclusory.

 

First it ignores the point BillsFan4 made about a lot depending on the offense the guy is running. In particular, if you look at the data on most teams that run a lot you'll find that they struggle in the fourth quarter.

 

Second that's particularly true if the QB doesn't have quality receivers on the field.

 

Third, although people don't like to hear it, QBs need onfield experience. His fourbueats on the bench don't amount to much on the experience category. Taylor is still learning. Will he improve? I don't know. But he needs at least another year. And maybe two, if Watkins leaves after this season. And he's in a new offense.

 

Lots of variables. Just because she hasn't done everything yet doesn't mean that he won't.

[John from Riverside]

So the arguments I see are Yards per Game, Yards per Catch .. .Yada Yada Yada

 

I'll take 4th Quarter Comebacks for a $1,000 Alex.

 

RING RING RING .. you hit the daily double ....

 

Wide Right Revenge bets $2,000.

 

The answer is "2".

 

Question .. Alex .. the Question is .. how many 4th Quarter Comebacks has TT had the past two seasons?

 

WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER

 

Throw all those stats out .. .last year Stafford had 8 .. count them 8 4th Quarter comebacks ... Carr had 7 (less years in the league than TT) ... Dak had 5 (a rookie mind you). Look for yourself.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm

Those things cannot all be layed at the qbs feet......the players around them need to execute.

The problem with Fahey and his whole evaluation is that the QB data is flawed and therefor cannot be compared as equal. Different Qb's run different offensive schemes, and some require much more complexity, risk taking, and ownership to make adjustments according to what they see pre snap.

 

Taylor ran about as simplified and basic an offense as a QB can. Lynn did this after he couldn't handle Roman's offense.

 

Taylor's accuracy and turnover ratio is good when viewed through the narrow lens that Fahey is looking through, but when you look at what other QB's are doing in terms of complexity, responsibility, and the chances they take to make plays for their team, Taylor looks like a guy that doesn't measure up.

 

This is why people use the eye test and come away not being very impressed with Taylor and his numbers, and routinely find guys with more INT's to look much more capable at the position. Carson Wentz is a guy who you may come away unimpressed with if you look at his raw numbers, but he clearly runs his team's offense, and does alot to give his team a chance to win. I would take Wentz over Taylor with no hesitation.

 

The bottom line is that Taylor is the posterchild for misleading stats. What you see on paper looks good, but what you are actually getting on the field is below average production and an offense that fails when it matters most. Dare Taylor to win with his arm late in games and you are a virtual lock to win against the Bills.

Your posts are aweful.....they are literally the kind of bait that causes people like me to defend TT more then I really want to

[mannc]

Those things cannot all be layed at the qbs feet......the players around them need to execute.

 

And coaches need to not call reverses to Reggie Bush or punts from the other team's 42 yard line in OT.

[Shaw66]

And coaches need to not call reverses to Reggie Bush or punts from the other team's 42 yard line in OT.

I don't remember the game, the situation or the play, exactly, but giving the ball to Reggie on that play was an instant classic on a dumb calls of the season show.

[HappyDays]

I don't remember the game, the situation or the play, exactly, but giving the ball to Reggie on that play was an instant classic on a dumb calls of the season show.

It was the 2nd Miami game. It was also the game where we had 10 players on the field on a play that put the Dolphins back into FG range after what should have been our game winning TD. Coaching was the #1 problem last year.

[transplantbillsfan]

This is why I'm still a big fan of yards per game. Not as the be-all, end-all stat. But as an important component of any evaluation.

 

It's one thing to produce efficient looking numbers when you're throwing 15 times per game.

 

It's another thing to drop back on the majority of plays and challenge the D to stop you from getting the ball downfield and they can't.

 

I want to see Tyrod become the kind of QB who can do the latter.

Well, according to Fahey, Taylor's ADOT (Average Depth Of Throw) is 9.27 yards, or 7th in the league.

 

Even disregarding that number, though, I don't think folks would say pushing the ball down the field is a problem for Taylor.

Thanks for agreeing with me.

 

Good Stats do not = wins.

I do agree.

 

Neither do good QBs.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

RING RING RING .. you hit the daily double ....

 

Wide Right Revenge bets $2,000.

 

The answer is "2".

 

Question .. Alex .. the Question is .. how many 4th Quarter Comebacks has TT had the past two seasons?

 

WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER

 

Throw all those stats out .. .last year Stafford had 8 .. count them 8 4th Quarter comebacks ... Carr had 7 (less years in the league than TT) ... Dak had 5 (a rookie mind you). Look for yourself.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm

So Rodgers must be terrible, dude's 0-35 when trailing teams by more than 1 point with winning records in the 4th quarter.

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/green-bay-packers-aaron-rodgers-clutch-nfc-championship-stat-012217

 

CUT THAT GUY!!!!

Edited May 6, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[GoBills808]

Crushed makes a lot of good points but I think its too conclusory.

 

First it ignores the point BillsFan4 made about a lot depending on the offense the guy is running. In particular, if you look at the data on most teams that run a lot you'll find that they struggle in the fourth quarter.

 

Second that's particularly true if the QB doesn't have quality receivers on the field.

 

Third, although people don't like to hear it, QBs need onfield experience. His fourbueats on the bench don't amount to much on the experience category. Taylor is still learning. Will he improve? I don't know. But he needs at least another year. And maybe two, if Watkins leaves after this season. And he's in a new offense.

 

Lots of variables. Just because she hasn't done everything yet doesn't mean that he won't.

 

I agree that it's difficult to use YAC as a QB measurable between different offensive systems, but why can't you say that all things being equal, hitting a receiver in stride (ie throwing an accurate, NFL level pass) is going to usually produce better numbers? I mean, you can't just wash your hands and say, 'Well, all offensive systems are different and we don't know what the playcall was anyway, so you can't use YAC to judge a QB's performance.' We have to be able to use SOME statistics. Otherwise you might as well throw everything out, including passer rating and the things that Taylor scores either average or above average on, because it's possible the offensive system we run is conducive to high QB rating and isn't indicative of the actual quality of said QB at all.

 

Let's just be consistent. If we're going to qualify certain statistics because offensive systems are a variable, do it for all statistics good and bad.

[mannc]

 

I agree that it's difficult to use YAC as a QB measurable between different offensive systems, but why can't you say that all things being equal, hitting a receiver in stride (ie throwing an accurate, NFL level pass) is going to usually produce better numbers? I mean, you can't just wash your hands and say, 'Well, all offensive systems are different and we don't know what the playcall was anyway, so you can't use YAC to judge a QB's performance.' We have to be able to use SOME statistics. Otherwise you might as well throw everything out, including passer rating and the things that Taylor scores either average or above average on, because it's possible the offensive system we run is conducive to high QB rating and isn't indicative of the actual quality of said QB at all.

 

Let's just be consistent. If we're going to qualify certain statistics because offensive systems are a variable, do it for all statistics good and bad.

There are lots of good statistics with which to judge QBs. YAC is probably the worst; it may in fact be entirely useless.

[Domdab99]

One thing I don't get about all the TT bashing, is that those doing the bashing apparently think franchise QBs grow on trees. The 50th best QB in the world is someone like Mark Sanchez. Playing QB is incredibly hard.

 

TT is a top 20 QB. But some fans are like, get rid of him! Draft Mahomes! Draft Watson! There is no gurantee that either of these players will be any better than Sanchez, much less Tyrod.

 

And then there's the crowd already mortgaging present and future draft picks for Darnold or Rosen next year. It's ridiculous. Andrew Luck does not come around every year.

 

The Bills can win with TT. Play to his strengths, have a scheme that lets him succeed. Have receivers who are better than scrubs, etc.

 

TT is our QB for the at least one more season...probably more, unless Peterman steps up. Get used to it.

[mannc]

One thing I don't get about all the TT bashing, is that those doing the bashing apparently think franchise QBs grow on trees. The 50th best QB in the world is someone like Mark Sanchez. Playing QB is incredibly hard.

 

TT is a top 20 QB. But some fans are like, get rid of him! Draft Mahomes! Draft Watson! There is no gurantee that either of these players will be any better than Sanchez, much less Tyrod.

 

And then there's the crowd already mortgaging present and future draft picks for Darnold or Rosen next year. It's ridiculous. Andrew Luck does not come around every year.

 

The Bills can win with TT. Play to his strengths, have a scheme that lets him succeed. Have receivers who are better than scrubs, etc.

 

TT is our QB for the at least one more season...probably more, unless Peterman steps up. Get used to it.

Thank you. The Bills' QB situation is better than it's been at any time since Jim Kelly retired. They have a starter who is at least NFL average and two young backups with potential. The last think anyone should be thinking about is mortgaging the future next year for another rookie.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Are you talking total yards, or passing yards?

 

If you're talking passing yards, there's a reason it's considered low on the list of measures to evaluate a QB.

Passing yards isn't just what a QB throws for. It also includes the yards a receiver gets after the catch, and some offenses are better designed than others for YAC. Plus it doesn't take into account passing attempts either.

 

For example, Greg Roman's offense has always been near the bottom of the league in YAC (all 4 years in SF were near bottom of the NFL and his 2 years in Buffalo I believe we were dead last in YAC), and that's with a number of different QBs. I can't really just put the blame on his QBs either, because they were near the bottom in YAC with Alex Smith, who then goes to KC and is near the top of the NFL in YAC.

 

I think yards per attempt and air yards are a better measure to look at as far as passing yards go, because those stats don't have YAC added in.

I definitely agree that Tyrod has to improve his passing game though, that is for sure.

 

As far as QB effectiveness is concerned, I don't think anyone would like to argue that Brady is not an effective QB. Yet it's not atypical for his air yards to be only 50% or so of his passing yards total. He makes his living with those short passes over the middle that his WR turn into 10-15 yd gains. My point is don't discount YAC as part of the measure of an effective QB. You are correct that they are affected by the design of the passing game as well as the QB's play.

 

As far as I know, YPA includes YAC?

 

Passing yards aren't high on the list of QB measurables in part because it turns out they are not strongly correlated to winning games. Stands to reason, right, a lot of teams rack up passing yardage in "come from behind" situations.

[John from Riverside]

One thing I don't get about all the TT bashing, is that those doing the bashing apparently think franchise QBs grow on trees. The 50th best QB in the world is someone like Mark Sanchez. Playing QB is incredibly hard.

 

TT is a top 20 QB. But some fans are like, get rid of him! Draft Mahomes! Draft Watson! There is no gurantee that either of these players will be any better than Sanchez, much less Tyrod.

 

And then there's the crowd already mortgaging present and future draft picks for Darnold or Rosen next year. It's ridiculous. Andrew Luck does not come around every year.

 

The Bills can win with TT. Play to his strengths, have a scheme that lets him succeed. Have receivers who are better than scrubs, etc.

 

TT is our QB for the at least one more season...probably more, unless Peterman steps up. Get used to it.

Folks want a top 10 qb

 

Hard to find these guys....