RD 5, Pick 171: Nathan Peterman (QB) - Pitt

[SoFFacet]

 

Kelly was by far the better prospect... I really think they wanted to grab Chad as UDFA... But it's OK... If Nate has the other QB's looking over their shoulders, -he's fulfilling his purpose...

 

Elway did McDermott a huge favor.

[LABILLBACKER]

Can someone explain to me why, if what everyone everywhere seems to be saying, that he has all of these essential QB skills, the guy fell in the draft, and wasn't a first round pick? Everyone says he has great accuracy, leadership, anticipation, mobility, size, etc. There is only one answer to that. Popgun arm.

Because qbs with strong arms like EJ and Cardale have been so successful for us. Give me an accurate QB any day over the robo cannon arm guy.

[TheFunPolice]

accuracy and ability to read defenses and anticipate throws > arm strength any day

 

Yeah, you want them all. Losman was a surfer dude who could throw a football through a brick wall.

[thebandit27]

I'm interested in how your evaluation of Peterman compares to your evaluation on Connor Cook. Do you still have your notes on him? Just curious. They seem like similar prospects.

 

I had Cook as a R2-R3 guy that I thought would get over-drafted, but I figured it'd be okay as long as he went to a team with an established starter and a good coach:

 

Connor Cook – Michigan State, 6’4”, 220 lbs, Senior

http://draftbreakdow...enn-state-2015/

Notes (time in video relating to note):

- General comments: He’s got some raw material for sure, but there’s a lot that needs to be cleaned up. He has a lot of wasted movement in his upper body, and he gets a bit sloppy with his back foot on his follow-through, which causes some balls to sail (especially boundary throws). He also needs to protect the football better. On the plus side, he scans the whole field and seems to process things quickly.

- (0:12) gets loose with his upper body and exposes the ball during his drop-back

- (0:26) gets the ball out quickly on the screen; better ball placement expected

- (0:52) love this play—gets through the play-fake quickly and delivers an accurate deep strike. Ball’s gone in under 4 seconds, which is nice on a PA deep throw.

- (1:30) there’s the loose footwork again

- (2:10) doesn’t set his feet to throw, and it costs his receiver a YAC opportunity

- (2:50) this is a small play, but I like it. He climbs forward in the pocket and uses his safety valve, picking up 7 yards on 2^nd-and-10.

- (3:17) maddening and impressive at the same time; he doesn’t drive off his plant foot at the back of his drop, which forces him to muscle the ball to the boundary. That said, it’s a big-time throw that flashes arm talent.

- (3:51) fits it into a very tight window…maybe too tight. I think that ball gets picked in the NFL.

- (4:46) a couple of really nice play-fakes back-to-back.

Summary: This was my favorite of Cook’s games that I watched this year. What I like is that the positives he has (pocket presence, quick decision-making, field vision) can’t be taught, and the deficiencies (wasted movement, sloppy footwork, ball security) can. I think the end of round 1 is a great landing spot for him—a team like Arizona could afford to give him a year or two behind Carson Palmer for Bruce Arians to coach him up.

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/184219-2016-draft-qb-thread/page-3?do=findComment&comment=3837487

[transplantbillsfan]

Not that it's impossible, but it's hilarious that a 5th round QB is being buoyed up to such high aspirations. It's hilarious, though not surprising from Bills fans.

 

 

May I ask this question, how many QBs drafted since 2000 after the 4th round have been as good as Taylor has been over his 30 total NFL starts? Make 30 games the threshold.

 

 

I got Brady. Anyone else?

 

 

It'd be awesome if Peterman becomes the next Brady, but Taylor's much more likely to demonstrate he's our long term answer than Peterman is.

 

Might happen. Highly improbably, though. There's a reason he was passed over 4 times by every team and Buffalo didn't exactly leap to draft the guy considering they passed over him with their first 5th round draft pick.

 

Even Buffalo and McDermott viewed him as a 5th round draft pick. That doesn't speak resoundingly about the guy.

 

He's just likely going to be one of those names we talked about during draft time who'd be a "late round steal" that we forget about with time, like David Fales. Or like that guy KC drafted a few years ago. Or Garret Grayson, Or...

 

Too many to count.

 

We're Bills fans. We're too funny. We already have our "late round steal" as a starter at QB. Doubt it happens with Peterson, but I'd love it if it did.

[thebandit27]

Not that it's impossible, but it's hilarious that a 5th round QB is being buoyed up to such high aspirations. It's hilarious, though not surprising from Bills fans.

 

 

May I ask this question, how many QBs drafted since 2000 after the 4th round have been as good as Taylor has been over his 30 total NFL starts? Make 30 games the threshold.

 

 

I got Brady. Anyone else?

 

 

It'd be awesome if Peterman becomes the next Brady, but Taylor's much more likely to demonstrate he's our long term answer than Peterman is.

 

Might happen. Highly improbably, though. There's a reason he was passed over 4 times by every team and Buffalo didn't exactly leap to draft the guy considering they passed over him with their first 5th round draft pick.

 

Even Buffalo and McDermott viewed him as a 5th round draft pick. That doesn't speak resoundingly about the guy.

 

He's just likely going to be one of those names we talked about during draft time who'd be a "late round steal" that we forget about with time, like David Fales. Or like that guy KC drafted a few years ago. Or Garret Grayson, Or...

 

Too many to count.

 

We're Bills fans. We're too funny. We already have our "late round steal" as a starter at QB. Doubt it happens with Peterson, but I'd love it if it did.

 

I think there's a legit 50/50 shot that Peterman becomes a solid backup in this league...for me, that'd be just fine for a Day 3 pick.

 

I figured he'd go a lot earlier than that because of how high QBs can get pushed up the board.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

I think there's a legit 50/50 shot that Peterman becomes a solid backup in this league...for me, that'd be just fine for a Day 3 pick.

 

I figured he'd go a lot earlier than that because of how high QBs can get pushed up the board.

 

Yeah, from what I've heard and seen from him, I think and hope he can be our long term backup.

 

People are talking about him as though he'll usurp Taylor... some are saying before the end of the year... a select few are saying Peterman will be the starter week 1. With those people, I've set forth an open bet that, barring an injury to Taylor, he'll be our starter week 1. I'm giving 3 to 1 odds. Surprisingly, I had a taker already who put down $100.

 

Open for others, too.

 

 

But people who have this position are just unrealistic and living in lala land. I'm not saying that to personally attack them. I'm saying this because it's just true. If Peterman is the week 1 starter and Taylor is still healthy and on the roster, it would be shocking, regardless of your feelings about Taylor as a QB.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Not that it's impossible, but it's hilarious that a 5th round QB is being buoyed up to such high aspirations. It's hilarious, though not surprising from Bills fans.

 

 

May I ask this question, how many QBs drafted since 2000 after the 4th round have been as good as Taylor has been over his 30 total NFL starts? Make 30 games the threshold.

 

 

I got Brady. Anyone else?

 

 

It'd be awesome if Peterman becomes the next Brady, but Taylor's much more likely to demonstrate he's our long term answer than Peterman is.

 

Might happen. Highly improbably, though. There's a reason he was passed over 4 times by every team and Buffalo didn't exactly leap to draft the guy considering they passed over him with their first 5th round draft pick.

 

Even Buffalo and McDermott viewed him as a 5th round draft pick. That doesn't speak resoundingly about the guy.

 

He's just likely going to be one of those names we talked about during draft time who'd be a "late round steal" that we forget about with time, like David Fales. Or like that guy KC drafted a few years ago. Or Garret Grayson, Or...

 

Too many to count.

 

We're Bills fans. We're too funny. We already have our "late round steal" as a starter at QB. Doubt it happens with Peterson, but I'd love it if it did.

The sarcasm is dripping so hard I need an umbrella. (or are you that uninformed?)

 

In the 2011 NFL Draft, Taylor was drafted in the sixth round with the 180th overall pick by the Baltimore Ravens.

 

Yeah, from what I've heard and seen from him, I think and hope he can be our long term backup.

 

People are talking about him as though he'll usurp Taylor... some are saying before the end of the year... a select few are saying Peterman will be the starter week 1. With those people, I've set forth an open bet that, barring an injury to Taylor, he'll be our starter week 1. I'm giving 3 to 1 odds. Surprisingly, I had a taker already who put down $100.

 

Open for others, too.

 

 

But people who have this position are just unrealistic and living in lala land. I'm not saying that to personally attack them. I'm saying this because it's just true. If Peterman is the week 1 starter and Taylor is still healthy and on the roster, it would be shocking, regardless of your feelings about Taylor as a QB.

By 2018 he probably will.

 

Unless TT turns into a phenom he'll be gone soon.

Edited May 4, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan

[transplantbillsfan]

The sarcasm is dripping so hard I need an umbrella. (or are you that uninformed?)

 

In the 2011 NFL Draft, Taylor was drafted in the sixth round with the 180th overall pick by the Baltimore Ravens.

 

Ummm... are you serious here? Yes, Taylor was drafted by the Ravens, what does that matter? Find a 5th round pick or later who is a NFL starter at or above Taylor's level since 2000 over at least 30 starts.

 

It doesn't matter if it's with the team who drafted him originally. I know the Bills didn't draft him, even if you think my wording insinuates we did.

By 2018 he probably will.

 

Unless TT turns into a phenom he'll be gone soon.

 

By 2018, either Taylor is the Bills starter, or we've used our 2nd 1st round draft pick to find a way to draft our "Franchise QB" in the 1st round next year.

 

Peterman will hopefully turn into our long term backup. If he becomes a starter and a high level starter, it'd be fantastic but absolutely shocking to anyone who's not a Bills fan with a "OOOOOHHHH, look at the new shiny object in the form of a new QB!!!" mentality.

Edited May 4, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

Ummm... are you serious here? Yes, Taylor was drafted by the Ravens, what does that matter? Find a 5th round pick or later who is a NFL starter at or above Taylor's level since 2000 over at least 30 starts.

 

It doesn't matter if it's with the team who drafted him originally.

hahaha you funny.

 

NEWS ALERT!!! The world stopped spinning after TT saw drafted in the 6th round. Since then no QB drafted in later rounds has or ever will again reach success!!!

[transplantbillsfan]

hahaha you funny.

 

NEWS ALERT!!! The world stopped spinning after TT saw drafted in the 6th round. Since then no QB drafted in later rounds has or ever will again reach success!!!

 

The world didn't stop spinning, but you sure do keep spinning here.

 

Just simply try the exercise. Identify all the QBs who sustained 30 NFL starts at or above Taylor's level since 2000 drafted in the 5th round or later.

 

 

Sure, you could always strike the lottery if you play it. But what are your chances? Play it, but don't invest all your hopes (or money) in it, because you're highly unlikely to win anything meaningful.

 

Same applies with Peterman... and any 5th round or later QB.

Edited May 4, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[HappyDays]

 

I think there's a legit 50/50 shot that Peterman becomes a solid backup in this league...for me, that'd be just fine for a Day 3 pick.

 

I figured he'd go a lot earlier than that because of how high QBs can get pushed up the board.

That's where I'm at too. Nothing wrong with that for a 5th round pick, and I think the upside is there to become something better. I like it as a fall back option if Tyrod flames out.

[RK_BillsFan]

I mean realistically this is more along the lines of lets get rid of Whaley's mistake picks. Good choice for a late round QB. Guy can play under center, and can throw with timing. Will he ever be our starter? Who knows, i personally hope TT makes a leap with a real offence to use and real coaches to learn from. All in all i'd rather have Peterman than CJ or Chad Kelley. CJ was another wasted pick that smells of Whaley, and who needs an already injury ridden gun slinger who's only claim to fame is he is related to an NFL great.

[Augie]

I think there's a legit 50/50 shot that Peterman becomes a solid backup in this league...for me, that'd be just fine for a Day 3 pick.

 

I figured he'd go a lot earlier than that because of how high QBs can get pushed up the board.

Maybe he was vaccinated against the "QB Push Effect" as a child? I've heard fans from a lot of other teams who wished they had taken him much earlier. That almost guarantees the HOF! Or, maybe a career of clipboard holding. Not a bad gig if you can do it for a decade or so....

[Buffaloed in Pa]

 

The world didn't stop spinning, but you sure do keep spinning here.

 

Just simply try the exercise. Identify all the QBs who sustained 30 NFL starts at or above Taylor's level since 2000 drafted in the 5th round or later.

 

 

Sure, you could always strike the lottery if you play it. But what are your chances? Play it, but don't invest all your hopes (or money) in it, because you're highly unlikely to win anything meaningful.

 

Same applies with Peterman... and any 5th round or later QB.

Give the kid a chance. I wasn`t a big fan of him. But YOU never know. I`ll WAIT and see.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Because qbs with strong arms like EJ and Cardale have been so successful for us. Give me an accurate QB any day over the robo cannon arm guy.

 

You would kind of think arm strength could be developed? Wasn't it a knock on both Brady and Montana that they lacked arm strength?

[Big Gun]

 

Ummm... are you serious here? Yes, Taylor was drafted by the Ravens, what does that matter? Find a 5th round pick or later who is a NFL starter at or above Taylor's level since 2000 over at least 30 starts.

 

It doesn't matter if it's with the team who drafted him originally. I know the Bills didn't draft him, even if you think my wording insinuates we did.

 

Don't know why 2000 is your cut off but here goes.

 

2000 Bulger 6th

2000 Brady 6th

2004 Romo FA

2005 Fitzpatrick 7th

2005 Cassel 7th

2005 D Anderson 6th

2011 Taylor 6th

2015 Seimien 7th

 

Threw in a couple decent 4th rounders as I consider 4th round bottom half of draft.

 

1999 A Brooks 4th

2002 Garrard 4th

2005 Orton 4th

2012 Cousins 4th

2016 Prescott 4th

 

Also went back further than 2000 to 1993(at work didn't have any more time to go back further)

 

1998 Warner FA

1998 M Hasselbeck 6th

1994 Frerotte 7th

1994 Garcia FA

1993 Grbac 8th

1993 T Green 8th

1993 Brunell 5th

 

They're out there, they just have to be found.

 

Some found Peterman to be a 3rd rounder that was "stolen" in the 5th by the Bills. I didn't look for 3rd rounders, like Peterman was projected, but i'm sure there are some that have had good careers. It's not out of the question that he could come in and be good right out of the box. Narrow minded thinking if you think he can't.

Edited May 5, 2017 by old school

[John from Riverside]

Don't know why 2000 is your cut off but here goes.

 

2000 Bulger 6th

2000 Brady 6th

2004 Romo FA

2005 Fitzpatrick 7th

2005 Cassel 7th

2005 D Anderson 6th

2011 Taylor 6th

2015 Seimien 7th

 

Threw in a couple decent of 4th rounders as I consider 4th round bottom half of draft.

 

1999 A Brooks 4th

2002 Garrard 4th

2005 Orton 4th

2012 Cousins 4th

2016 Prescott 4th

 

Also went back further than 2000 to 1993(at work didn't have any more time to go back further)

 

1998 Warner FA

1998 M Hasselbeck 6th

1994 Frerotte 7th

1994 Garcia FA

1993 Grbac 8th

1993 T Green 8th

1993 Brunell 5th

 

There out there, they just have to be found.

 

Some found Peterman to be a 3rd rounder that was "stolen" in the 5th by the Bills. I didn't look for 3rd rounders, like Peterman was projected, but i'm sure there are some that have had good careers. It's not out of the question that he could come in and be good right out of the box. Narrow minded thinking if you think he can't.

Credit where credit is due....this is a good post

[BillsFan17]

Don't know why 2000 is your cut off but here goes.

 

2000 Bulger 6th

2000 Brady 6th

2004 Romo FA

2005 Fitzpatrick 7th

2005 Cassel 7th

2005 D Anderson 6th

2011 Taylor 6th

2015 Seimien 7th

 

Threw in a couple decent of 4th rounders as I consider 4th round bottom half of draft.

 

1999 A Brooks 4th

2002 Garrard 4th

2005 Orton 4th

2012 Cousins 4th

2016 Prescott 4th

 

Also went back further than 2000 to 1993(at work didn't have any more time to go back further)

 

1998 Warner FA

1998 M Hasselbeck 6th

1994 Frerotte 7th

1994 Garcia FA

1993 Grbac 8th

1993 T Green 8th

1993 Brunell 5th

 

There out there, they just have to be found.

 

Some found Peterman to be a 3rd rounder that was "stolen" in the 5th by the Bills. I didn't look for 3rd rounders, like Peterman was projected, but i'm sure there are some that have had good careers. It's not out of the question that he could come in and be good right out of the box. Narrow minded thinking if you think he can't.

Phenomenal work! I was about to start making the list my self. Seriously, well done!

 

This is what happens when you look into thing and do a bit of research.

[transplantbillsfan]

Don't know why 2000 is your cut off but here goes.

 

2000 Bulger 6th

2000 Brady 6th

2004 Romo FA

2005 Fitzpatrick 7th

2005 Cassel 7th

2005 D Anderson 6th

2011 Taylor 6th

2015 Seimien 7th

 

Threw in a couple decent of 4th rounders as I consider 4th round bottom half of draft.

 

1999 A Brooks 4th

2002 Garrard 4th

2005 Orton 4th

2012 Cousins 4th

2016 Prescott 4th

 

Also went back further than 2000 to 1993(at work didn't have any more time to go back further)

 

1998 Warner FA

1998 M Hasselbeck 6th

1994 Frerotte 7th

1994 Garcia FA

1993 Grbac 8th

1993 T Green 8th

1993 Brunell 5th

 

There out there, they just have to be found.

 

Some found Peterman to be a 3rd rounder that was "stolen" in the 5th by the Bills. I didn't look for 3rd rounders, like Peterman was projected, but i'm sure there are some that have had good careers. It's not out of the question that he could come in and be good right out of the box. Narrow minded thinking if you think he can't.

 

5th round or later QBs who performed at or above Taylor's level for 30 or more sustained games.

 

Brady (who I mentioned), Cassel, Bulger and Fitz are the guys who fall under that category. Romo is a UDFA, which obviously makes him a gem, but if we're including the UDFA QBs in this then it's significantly more of a lottery.

 

Did you seriously include Siemian and Anderson?

 

 

I said back to 2000 simply so we could get some reasonable numbers for comparison. I only went back to 2010 (also because of a lack of time) and 33 QBs were drafted between rounds 5-7. I think it'd be incredibly conservative to say that at least 100 QBs were drafted from 2000-2016 between rounds 5-7. Out of those, you had 5 guys total who turned into legit NFL starters on various levels after 30 starts.

 

Conservatively, at best 5% of those guys pan out into something since 2000 in terms of being an NFL starter.

 

If you want to include Romo and bring in all the UDFAs, that number is a lot lower.

 

 

As I said, that doesn't mean you don't draft the guys and hope, but any of you banking on this are just being blind homers.

Edited May 5, 2017 by transplantbillsfan