Just when I think the Bills finally got smart...

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Looks like the plan was executed perfectly. Trade back, aquire a 2018 1st and extra picks in 2017. Then use extra picks to trade up for players they covet.

 

I'm not a fan of trade ups, even for QBs. But doing so by giving up mid round picks doesn't bother me as much.

[Wayne Arnold]

I'm not a negative nelly, I just wish the Bills were smarter with their picks. The less you have the less room there is for error. If McDermott really is running this draft that is especially concerning to me. He's a coach, not a scout. He has no background in college talent evaluation. So why should we believe he knows better than everyone else in the room, that this player is worth 2 picks while other teams haven't spent 1 pick on him yet? I like the players picked, no crazy reaches and they fill needs, but the truth is no one knows how they will fare in the NFL.

 

Actually McDermott started out as a scout. I'd rather he be making draft choices than Whaley. We already know Whaley sucks. At least McDermott is an unknown.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

Just because we don't like it doesn't make their thoughts any less valid. I am leery of quashing dissenting opinion just because the majority disagrees with it. If it turns toward a bothersome crusade then we'll address it; until then I think folks should have the freedom to vent on a weekend in which many are very emotionally involved.

....I am BY NO MEANS squashing dissenting opinion......debating both sides is what should make this place work......Mayock grades a pick high and Brandt grades the same pick low...who is right?......it just gets old around here when Bflo mever does ONE damn thing right.....and usually from the same perennial whiners, stuck posting here out of frustration because they're not gainfully employed by the NFL with their "expertise (COUGH)"....need my Ludens.......

[purple haze]

Not entirely true, we lost the 3rd rounder that we had from the KC trade. That's an entire mid-round player gone. Jones and Dawkins can't just become decent starters for the trades to be worth it because you can find decent starters at our original spots in the 2nd and 3rd round. We were just so sure about Jones and Dawkins that we gave up the chance to take an additional mid-round player that could have filled yet another hole. I for one think QB still needs to be addressed but I don't know how likely that is now.

They identified players they wanted for whatever those reasons are. Acquiring more picks is not always about taking more players; often times it is about using the "extra" picks to move around the draft board to get specific players an organization wants at different areas of the draft.

[Wayne Arnold]

The way I see it, the Bills have just as many picks in this year"s draft right now as they did coming in, they got three players who should immediately contribute, and they have an extra 1st rounder next year. What are you bitching about?

 

They gave up two draft picks and reduced a third to a fifth. That's what I'm "bitching" about. Is this a difficult concept? Did some of you posters have that lobotomy performed as well?

[xxxxxxxx]

they get all Billsy on Day 2.

 

I was so proud and excited that the Bills traded down from 10 to add more draft picks - including a first-rounder in 2018. The smart teams know that the NFL Draft is a crapshoot of massive proportion - and the only solution is to accumulate as many picks as possible to increase odds that the players you draft are good. Then let them battle it out in training camp.

 

But no. They trade up and give up picks NOT ONCE...BUT TWICE.

 

No one wastes draft picks like the Buffalo Bills.

 

They simply cannot help themselves. They get tunnel vision on one player and are so damn paranoid that others value their guy like they do (ego) that they shoot themselves in the foot by giving away valuable picks. It's absurd how perennially dumb our organization is.

 

It's as if each person who is hired by the Bills gets a lobotomy on their first day as employees. It's the most realistic explanation I can come up with.

The smart teams know where the talent drop off is every year, and how many players in each draft are projected to start. Yes the draft is a crapshoot, but your odds of finding a starter get much steeper the deeper the draft goes. If you look at draft history, most starters are found in rounds 1-2, a few in round three, and after that your into special teams, backup, and camp body territory.

 

Stack a team with tons of low round picks that can't start in the short term and you'll end up having to cut your picks. We would have never had Chris Hogan or Gillespie on our team if Miami hadn't over drafted and cut them. The bills set where their thought the talent drop off was and attacked the border. You don't have to agree with the strategy, but to assume its brainless demonstrates a fundamental lack of mathematical understanding. I'd rather role the dice twice when the odds are more favorable, than roll 4 times when they are not. And no way in hell will you ever catch me playing the slots.

[Wayne Arnold]

 

Not only contribute immediately, but fill holes we've had for two years now. Also, save 12 mil in changing out CB's and got an extra 1st next year.

 

But yeah, terrible job

 

You have no idea if that is true or not.

[Simon]

Agree. However, there are professional naysayers on this board; everything is wrong; nothing is good; unless what they want to happen happens and even then there might be a jaded take. It is annoying.

Can't argue with a bit of that.

I just think this is the kind of weekend where folks ought to get a bit more leeway than usual; kind of like a Sunday evening during the season. Get it off your chest but then have your **** straightened out by Monday.

With that being said, there just might be a couple of our more voluble "contributors" who mysteriously have not been heard from the last day or two.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

They gave up two draft picks and reduced a third to a fifth. That's what I'm "bitching" about. Is this a difficult concept? Did some of you posters have that lobotomy performed as well?

 

....after seeing your results, hell no......24/7/365 is your beotch calling card here as it was on BBMB.....the surgery did NOT help.....................

[QuoteTheRaven83]

 

You have no idea if that is true or not.

 

You have no idea if these were "wasted" picks or not.

[Wayne Arnold]

Just posted this in another thread.

 

Once you are past the third round the likelihood of finding a guy that can come in and compete for a starting role are pretty remote. Do you really think that guys picked in late rounds are significantly better than undrafted free agents? Most of these guys come in and compete for a roster spot and at best become special teamers.

 

The Bills may very well have picked up three starters, using those late picks to achieve that is smart. I think they have done a good job of working this draft. They may very well have filled three holes. What more do you want?

 

They traded a third round pick for a fifth round pick. Simply because they thought other teams wanted their guy. Even though he had a third round grade by most publications.

 

Bills picked up what "may very well" be three starters. But they should have picked up what "may very well" be four starters.

 

Last I checked, 4 > 3

[cage]

Can probably get two 4th rounders and maybe a 7th for that first round pick we got from KC Friday.... that would then increase our haul to 8 players?!?

[BuffAlone]

The way I see it, the Bills have just as many picks in this year"s draft right now as they did coming in, they got three players who should immediately contribute, and they have an extra 1st rounder next year. What are you bitching about?

And that sums up this thread. ...

[Shaw66]

they get all Billsy on Day 2.

 

I was so proud and excited that the Bills traded down from 10 to add more draft picks - including a first-rounder in 2018. The smart teams know that the NFL Draft is a crapshoot of massive proportion - and the only solution is to accumulate as many picks as possible to increase odds that the players you draft are good. Then let them battle it out in training camp.

 

But no. They trade up and give up picks NOT ONCE...BUT TWICE.

 

No one wastes draft picks like the Buffalo Bills.

 

They simply cannot help themselves. They get tunnel vision on one player and are so damn paranoid that others value their guy like they do (ego) that they shoot themselves in the foot by giving away valuable picks. It's absurd how perennially dumb our organization is.

 

It's as if each person who is hired by the Bills gets a lobotomy on their first day as employees. It's the most realistic explanation I can come up with.

I generally agree with the principle you espouse, but there's another principle that's critical, too. That's "stay true to your board."

 

I haven't heard anyone say it this year, but they said it last year with Ragland. They saw this talent they had ranked up in the first round and he was still sitting there early in the second. They thought he was a huge bargain based on their board. They also thought they weren't the only ones who knew that, so they traded up. I'm guessing the same thing happened twice yesterday.

 

They really wanted receiver and oline help and they saw guys who looked like bargains on their board.

 

They stayed true to the board.

 

Fifth round picks are useful, but they usually don't give you guys much better than the undrafted free agents who make your team. And they rarely start in the first, or even the second season.

 

Bills got three guys who all have a good chance of starting. It's always a good draft when you do that.

 

Still, I agree. It's a crapshoot, and more picks is usually better. But I'm happy this morning.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Can probably get two 4th rounders and maybe a 7th for that first round pick we got from KC Friday.... that would then increase our haul to 8 players?!?

 

...three for one makes perfect sense to me................

[dlonce]

I'm right there with you Wayne. The draft is a crapshoot but every year the Bills waltz in like they know better than everyone else. What is the success rate of OL taken in the 3rd round, 33%? I can't imagine it's much higher. But I'm sure the Bills would tell you they are 75% sure in Dawkins. No matter how sure they think they are they don't really know. Dawkins could tear his ACL in training camp and there goes that idea. We needed to use all our picks this year IMO. I love the trade down but not as much because we lost the 3rd rounder anyways, to take a WR who had a great senior bowl but whose college production was possibly inflated by the system he played in. I mean I don't know maybe he turns into a great player but without the benefit of hindsight yet the moves look poor to me.

Offensive linemen is the one position that picking in later rounds has very little bearing on success. There are hundreds of examples of very good to excellent OL picked in later rounds.

 

The value of second rounders to third and beyond is very high,especially in this type of draft. To me,you increase the odds of getting a high quality player in round two comparably. Volume does not necessarily mean your chances of these guys sticking increases.

 

One example is New England. He drafts for volume and it doesn't work. BB not a very good drafter,so what makes anyone think the Bills will do much better?

[CarpetCrawler]

I have zero problem giving away 5ths to move into 2nd, but they need to be smart about who they are drafting there.

 

You should read this article: http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Contrary to what people think, you are not going to get 7 starters from a draft. You are hopefully going to end up with 3. I would rather stock my odds with higher % of success than have more picks with low success rates. Give me a pick with 70% success rate than a lot of 15% success rate picks.

Excellent article, thanks. Can't argue with numbers and logic like that.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I agree.

 

You are sitting at #44, only three WRs have come off the board. And the thought process is move up 7 spots and that costs the #91 pick you just got in exchange for #149? Zay Jones is worth 58 spots of Draft position?

 

Same thing with Dawkins. You have a pick at #75, but you have to trade up the 60's and go a net -2 picks there?

 

We need help/depth everywhere - DE/DT, LB, CB, S, WR, RB, QB and we are just handing away picks.

 

Thats Doug Whaley - paranoid.

[KRT88]

they get all Billsy on Day 2.

 

I was so proud and excited that the Bills traded down from 10 to add more draft picks - including a first-rounder in 2018. The smart teams know that the NFL Draft is a crapshoot of massive proportion - and the only solution is to accumulate as many picks as possible to increase odds that the players you draft are good. Then let them battle it out in training camp.

 

But no. They trade up and give up picks NOT ONCE...BUT TWICE.

 

No one wastes draft picks like the Buffalo Bills.

 

They simply cannot help themselves. They get tunnel vision on one player and are so damn paranoid that others value their guy like they do (ego) that they shoot themselves in the foot by giving away valuable picks. It's absurd how perennially dumb our organization is.

 

It's as if each person who is hired by the Bills gets a lobotomy on their first day as employees. It's the most realistic explanation I can come up with.

It doesn't matter who they hire as the air at One Bills Drive apparently makes them delusional and think they this one guy will make a difference. Drafting well requires patients and the ability to trust your own grades. You can't continually give away draft picks. We've done that for 17 years and it has yielded nothing.

 

Now Thursday night comes, they move back 27 spots pick extra picks and still fill in a need with a great player! Then delusional returns on Friday!

 

Freakin organization is clueless! They did what they ALWAYSdo, panic!

Edited April 29, 2017 by KRT88

[JMF2006]

Three picks in the first two rounds and two first rounders next year. Oh the humanity!

 

And 3 starters most likely.

 

The 2 picks in a QB rich draft next year is icing on the cake.