Top NFL QB Prospects for 2018

[Billsfansinceday1]

How is Lamar Jackson any better than what we already have with Tyrod? Same kind of player. We need a pocket QB

Having seen Lamar 3 times, I am certainly no expert. That said, in each game he has shown Tyrod-like issues with accuracy. There is no debate that he is a great athlete but it may not translate to the NFL.

[thebandit27]

I would add Lamar Jackson and Mayfield to the list. I wouldn't be surprised if Darnold stays in school another year. The only issue I have with your post is that I would without any hesitation use a first round pick on a qb who had a lot of potential. Lamar Jackson is a qb that I have in mind.

 

Back in August, my preseason rankings were:

 

1. Mayfield

2. Rosen

3/4/5. Allen/Darnold/Falk (no separation at the moment)

6. Rudolph

 

I haven't departed much from them, and although I'm sure it'll change come January when I go through every throw from every guy's college career, right now my QB board would look something like this:

 

1. Mayfield

2. Rosen

3. Rudolph

4. Darnold

5. Falk

 

I really like some of what I've seen from Jackson, but I refuse to put him on my board because I feel very strongly that he needs to stay in school. You could say the same for Darnold, but I believe that Jackson has a strong chance to develop into an elite NFL prospect at QB if he stays in school and refines his passing game, whereas I think Darnold returning could go either way--he could develop into an elite prospect, or he could go in the tank a la Brian Brohm.

[JohnC]

How is Lamar Jackson any better than what we already have with Tyrod? Same kind of player. We need a pocket QB

Although Lamar Jackson is very athletic and can run like Tyrod he is not the same kind of player. He is immensely better. There is no contradiction that a qb who can run can also play from the pocket. He has dramatically improved from his first year to the second year under Petrino. Anyone who stereotypes Jackson as simply being a running qb without the ability to play the full scope of the position is making a mistake. Jackson is going to be a first round pick while Taylor was a sixth round pick (I believe?). In my view he would be a worthy pick.

 

Too many people are making the assumption that a rookie qb has to start right away. That's not how I view most qb prospects. You coach them up and play them when they are ready.

[JohnC]

 

Back in August, my preseason rankings were:

 

1. Mayfield

2. Rosen

3/4/5. Allen/Darnold/Falk (no separation at the moment)

6. Rudolph

 

I haven't departed much from them, and although I'm sure it'll change come January when I go through every throw from every guy's college career, right now my QB board would look something like this:

 

1. Mayfield

2. Rosen

3. Rudolph

4. Darnold

5. Falk

 

I really like some of what I've seen from Jackson, but I refuse to put him on my board because I feel very strongly that he needs to stay in school. You could say the same for Darnold, but I believe that Jackson has a strong chance to develop into an elite NFL prospect at QB if he stays in school and refines his passing game, whereas I think Darnold returning could go either way--he could develop into an elite prospect, or he could go in the tank a la Brian Brohm.

In general, qbs who play more in college are more prepared to play in the pro ranks. However, in the real world of money and economics more often than not intrude on the harsh reality of life. My intuition is that Darnold is more likely to stay in school than Jackson because of economic considerations. There is no doubt that playing another year under Petrino would make Jackson a much more prepared qb as a pro.

 

The bottom line for me is that I would rather invest in a qb such as Jackson, who is admittedly an unfinished product, rather than invest in a qb such as Peterman who is much more of a finished product but lacks the upside.

 

I haven't soon too much of Rudolph while I have seem more of Mayfield. I like him a lot. My primary criticism of him is that he needs to tame his game and not improvise so much to keep the play alive. If he has any Johnny Manziel's tapes he needs to burn them or use them as an example of what not to do.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Josh Allen is the JP Losman version of Carson Wentz.

 

Pass.

 

I think Darnold returning could go either way--he could develop into an elite prospect, or he could go in the tank a la Brian Brohm.

 

I don't believe Brohm had the arm strength, size or athletic ability of Darnold. I feel like regardless of how much Darnold struggles this year or next, he'll be a high first round pick. Some coach and GM will believe they can fix him up. Darnold is playing this year how Luck has been playing his entire NFL career. He's a gunslinger who will throw it anywhere, anytime. That's both good and bad as we have scene.

[JohnC]

Josh Allen is the JP Losman version of Carson Wentz.

 

Pass.

 

I don't believe Brohm had the arm strength, size or athletic ability of Darnold. I feel like regardless of how much Darnold struggles this year or next, he'll be a high first round pick. Some coach and GM will believe they can fix him up. Darnold is playing this year how Luck has been playing his entire NFL career. He's a gunslinger who will throw it anywhere, anytime. That's both good and bad as we have scene.

There is no qb Messiah available. That's a fantasy that too many are pursuing. Getting a franchise qb doesn't in itself guarantee team success. You have to surround the qb with enough talent and create a situation where his talents can be optimized. You cited Luck in your post. Instead of providing him with an adequate OL he has had to work behind one of the worst lines in the game. Getting your qb bruised and battered not only takes a physical toll but also a mental toll. The Colts acquired a golden talent and diminished him because of their inability to judge talent surrounding him.

 

There are at least 3 to 5 good qb prospects in this draft. None of them by themselves are going to lead this team to any meaningful success unless the roster is bolstered. Getting a legitimate franchise qb in place is obviously essential but you also have to put that player in a position to succeed. There is so much more to do to get to that point.

[thebandit27]

 

I don't believe Brohm had the arm strength, size or athletic ability of Darnold. I feel like regardless of how much Darnold struggles this year or next, he'll be a high first round pick. Some coach and GM will believe they can fix him up. Darnold is playing this year how Luck has been playing his entire NFL career. He's a gunslinger who will throw it anywhere, anytime. That's both good and bad as we have scene.

 

I wasn't comparing the players. I was saying that Brohm stayed in school and it adversely affected his draft stock.

 

I think that Darnold may have already seen some of that (though top-5 may still be salvageable with good workouts and interviews), and if he goes back to school but doesn't take his game up a level, he could end up suffering the same fate as Brohm on draft weekend 2019.

 

Jackson, IMO, is a different case. He's facing the question of whether or not he can play as a pocket QB. If he returns and doesn't show an improvement, it won't hurt his draft stock, because that won't be a new development. He'll still be considered a great athlete that can make a subset of NFL throws, but hasn't shown an ability to win games as a dropback passer. On the other hand, if he returns and does show an improved ability in the 2018 college season, then he's probably going to be a top-5 pick.

 

You're right about the gunslinger mentality though.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

....I don;t get to see college ball because of my work schedule, so I SOLELY depend on you folks that do.....IF every QB mentioned did come out in 2018, which one(s) best fit what we may know now is the proverbial "Dennison system"?........can you rank the picks and why?......also, I am assuming Peterman would be in the 2018 camp.....would Taylor be an invitee?...thanks for info......

[Solomon Grundy]

How is Lamar Jackson any better than what we already have with Tyrod? Same kind of player. We need a pocket QB

Lamar Jackson is a better anticipatory thrower than Tyrod, is taller in the pocket and has better accuracy than one gives him credit for. His receiving corps at Louisville isn't doing him any favors either.

[K D]

....I don;t get to see college ball because of my work schedule, so I SOLELY depend on you folks that do.....IF every QB mentioned did come out in 2018, which one(s) best fit what we may know now is the proverbial "Dennison system"?........can you rank the picks and why?......also, I am assuming Peterman would be in the 2018 camp.....would Taylor be an invitee?...thanks for info......

Rosen, best mechanics and quick release with cannon for an arm. Similiar to Eli Manning. If he comes out he will be gone top 2

for west coast offense (Dennison) you need someone with good footwork and quick release and that's Rosen.

Darnold would be your next best option but he is staying in school and I don't like his low release. He throws it like a baseball and you can't do that in the NFL. Guys like Von Miller will bend the corner and slap it away every time.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Rosen, best mechanics and quick release with cannon for an arm. Similiar to Eli Manning. If he comes out he will be gone top 2for west coast offense (Dennison) you need someone with good footwork and quick release and that's Rosen.Darnold would be your next best option but he is staying in school and I don't like his low release. He throws it like a baseball and you can't do that in the NFL. Guys like Von Miller will bend the corner and slap it away every time.

I love the way Darnold throws the ball, gets it out quicker.

[JohnC]

Lamar Jackson is a better anticipatory thrower than Tyrod, is taller in the pocket and has better accuracy than one gives him credit for. His receiving corps at Louisville isn't doing him any favors either.

You are astute and perspicacious!

[thenorthremembers]

Rosen, best mechanics and quick release with cannon for an arm. Similiar to Eli Manning. If he comes out he will be gone top 2

for west coast offense (Dennison) you need someone with good footwork and quick release and that's Rosen.

Darnold would be your next best option but he is staying in school and I don't like his low release. He throws it like a baseball and you can't do that in the NFL. Guys like Von Miller will bend the corner and slap it away every time.

 

I've seen you say this a couple time, that Rosen's footwork is great and he has a quick release. I have tried amazingly hard to come around on him, watched him on TV, watched eight games of every throw film and what I keep coming back to is a guy who isnt overally athletic, who holds the ball too long, has trouble with accuracy on medium to long throws, and consistenly throws off his back foot.

 

Still think he is in the top tier of players coming out this year but I am having a really hard time selling myself on him for the Bills.

[CanadianFan]

The more I think about Beane and his love for picks and analytics, the less I see us moving up to get one of the top prospects. Or even using our highest value 1st round pick for a QB. The most optimistic I can see us is take a QB using KC's 1st round pick. which is probably going to be the 30th. Who can we get at that place? Stiff ass Falk? Skinny Litton?

[K D]

 

I've seen you say this a couple time, that Rosen's footwork is great and he has a quick release. I have tried amazingly hard to come around on him, watched him on TV, watched eight games of every throw film and what I keep coming back to is a guy who isnt overally athletic, who holds the ball too long, has trouble with accuracy on medium to long throws, and consistenly throws off his back foot.

 

Still think he is in the top tier of players coming out this year but I am having a really hard time selling myself on him for the Bills.

he's actually very athletic, would have been a pro tennis player if he wanted. top ranked as a teenager. he has done some bone head plays, especailly under pressure, but it's impossible to find a qb that hasn't. he is a little immature so he has room to improve and make smarter decisions. the mechanics are flawless and so if he can make smarter decisions he can be unstoppable. keep in mind he's still only 20 yrs old. also his team is absolutely terrible. he has had zero NFL receivers to throw to and maybe no other NFL prospects at all on that offense. by contrast Darnold goes to USC where pretty much everyone gets drafted.

 

i'll see if i can find a film breakdown of him. i wish i had time to do one of my own but i'm not a youtube personality

Edited October 19, 2017 by kdiggz

[K D]

I love the way Darnold throws the ball, gets it out quicker.

here's a Rosen vs Darnold discussion:

[Augie]

here's a Rosen vs Darnold discussion:

I thought that was going to address Darnold having a long (a/k/a slow) throwing motion based on what you were responding to. How recent was that? Any idea?

[K D]

I thought that was going to address Darnold having a long (a/k/a slow) throwing motion based on what you were responding to. How recent was that? Any idea?

Just something I came across from the beginning of the season

[Augie]

Just something I came across from the beginning of the season

Great piece, but I'm not a Cowherd hater. I keep hearing Darnold's release will be a problem at the next level (and it does seem a little loopy to my untrained eye). But I'll gladly take either and see how it goes!

[John from Riverside]

I really hope the analytics dont talk us out of drafting a qb.....this is the draft where I do want to take one....

 

There are some good prospects in this next draft.....lets take one