Top NFL QB Prospects for 2018

[thebandit27]

Haven't really broken down any of these QBs for 2018 yet, but I have to wonder why Baker Mayfield doesn't get that much love. All the guy does is produce at an extraordinary level. Is it because he is only 6'1"? Something with arm strength? He puts up huge numbers ever year, gets better every year, and has great mobility too.

 

Those seem to be the two most common knocks on the guy, yeah.

 

I'm not starting from that place though--if I were to rank them now, I think he'd be my QB1

[BillsFan17]

 

 

Biggest issues through 5 games with him are his propensity to stare down targets and walk into sacks. I'll concede that his supporting cast doesn't help at times, counted 21 drops in those games.

 

There was a deep out in the Iowa State game that hung up forever, legitimate concerns about his arm strength.

If we are talking Mason Rudolph, I have to respectively disagree. Mason has a very legit arm.

[jeffismagic]

It is about percentages; every draft pick is. It is an evaluation of how likely this player is to succeed? That's what scouting is. So you keep using 2014 where 1 out of 4 has worked. There was a 25% chance you were the Raiders and a 75% chance you were the Jags, Browns or Vikings. In 2015 it didn't matter if you were 1 or 2. Next year you may be at 10 picking between 2 guys that graded out higher than Trubisky who went 2. It is a much better value play. The data supports that. You've armed yourself with an extra 1st as well in case you need to get in the top 5 to get your guy. You can swing a deal with the Bears as an example.

 

Your numbers for 2014 are wrong. There were 5 guys that were being looked at. Derek Carr, Jimmy G, and Teddy B are all hits. Teddy B had a terrible injury but the Vikings were happy and his trajectory was positive. At best you need to remove him from the misses. Then you have Bortles and Johnny Manziel. Manziel wouldn't have been drafted in the first if not for Browns owner. Bortles was the guy that a team drafted high and he has a lot of the qualities that people like from 2018 class. Tall, pro-style, etc.

 

Your assertion that a QB will be there at ten that is better than anyone from 2017 I also find speculative. There is nothing to back that up.

Edited May 15, 2017 by jeffismagic

[CommonCents]

 

Those seem to be the two most common knocks on the guy, yeah.

 

I'm not starting from that place though--if I were to rank them now, I think he'd be my QB1

Chase Daniels with wheels.

[Blokestradamus]

If we are talking Mason Rudolph, I have to respectively disagree. Mason has a very legit arm.

 

Perhaps the best way to put it is an issue with velocity control. Drives some throws that he shouldn't, fails to do so on throws that he should. Also think he could do with learning to throw a consistent spiral.

 

Bear in mind, 2015 games. Areas of concern may have cleaned themselves up in '16.

[thebandit27]

Chase Daniels with wheels.

 

I don't know about that--Daniel never crested 8.2 YPA in college, whereas Mayfield went for 9.4 as a Sophomore and 11.2 as a Junior. Mayfield is also light years ahead of Daniel in terms of protecting the football.

[BillsFan17]

 

Perhaps the best way to put it is an issue with velocity control. Drives some throws that he shouldn't, fails to do so on throws that he should. Also think he could do with learning to throw a consistent spiral.

 

Bear in mind, 2015 games. Areas of concern may have cleaned themselves up in '16.

Now that I agree with, the utilization of the arm. I hope, Rudolph continues to develop on those issues. I have seen him throw the ball beyond 20 yards more often than others and wirh great placement. Also have seen very eratic throws and head scratching decisions.

 

Ultimately, his potential makes him one of my favorite QBS in this class. Especially in a way where, if we can't get one of the main guys discussed, he would be a very good secondary option.

 

i.e. if Losman didn't try to drive the ball through a brick wall every throw, he may have been something for us.

[CommonCents]

 

I don't know about that--Daniel never crested 8.2 YPA in college, whereas Mayfield went for 9.4 as a Sophomore and 11.2 as a Junior. Mayfield is also light years ahead of Daniel in terms of protecting the football.

His last season in the Big 12 was 08', I would venture to guess QB stats have inflated quite a bit since then and that conference deserves special mention.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Your numbers for 2014 are wrong. There were 5 guys that were being looked at. Derek Carr, Jimmy G, and Teddy B are all hits. Teddy B had a terrible injury but the Vikings were happy and his trajectory was positive. At best you need to remove him from the misses. Then you have Bortles and Johnny Manziel. Manziel wouldn't have been drafted in the first if not for Browns owner. Bortles was the guy that a team drafted high and he has a lot of the qualities that people like from 2018 class. Tall, pro-style, etc.

 

Your assertion that a QB will be there at ten that is better than anyone from 2017 I also find speculative. There is nothing to back that up.

Thats fair to include Jimmy G and I agree on Teddy with the injury. We cannot count either of those as hits or misses at this point. Carr is a hit, Manziel is a miss and I'd say Bortles is a miss, 1 out of 3.

 

If 2018 does have 4 guys that are higher rated than Trubisky (which isn't crazy to think), in all likelihood, you will have a shot at 10 at one of them. If not, you will definitely be able to get one at 5 (as an example). You can use your other 1st to get to there.

[thebandit27]

His last season in the Big 12 was 08', I would venture to guess QB stats have inflated quite a bit since then and that conference deserves special mention.

 

I'd agree if we were looking at volumetric numbers like passing yards and TDs--one of the reasons I look at YPA is that it is automatically contextual.

[jeffismagic]

Thats fair to include Jimmy G and I agree on Teddy with the injury. We cannot count either of those as hits or misses at this point. Carr is a hit, Manziel is a miss and I'd say Bortles is a miss, 1 out of 3.

 

If 2018 does have 4 guys that are higher rated than Trubisky (which isn't crazy to think), in all likelihood, you will have a shot at 10 at one of them. If not, you will definitely be able to get one at 5 (as an example). You can use your other 1st to get to there.

I think the Bills could land a Carson Wentz level QB prospect if they are aggressive. But Sean will have to give up 2 1sts plus more.

[Kirby Jackson]

I think the Bills could land a Carson Wentz level QB prospect if they are aggressive. But Sean will have to give up 2 1sts plus more.

I agree with this as well. It won't be cheap to move up but they have the ammo to get it done. It may be the 2 1st's a mid round pick in 2018 & 2019 or something. It will depend on where the Bills finish, where KC finishes and which teams are ahead of them. The 49ers and Jets have to be thinking QB. The Browns may too depending on Kessler and Kizer. The Bears should be bad again but won't be going QB. Jax should be a little better IMO but they are another QB candidate.

[CommonCents]

 

I'd agree if we were looking at volumetric numbers like passing yards and TDs--one of the reasons I look at YPA is that it is automatically contextual.

Can you explain why you think that? How could a conference that morphed into a pinball machine not inflate YPA? I'm at work now but I can dig into some conference numbers later and figuere it out. I'm assuming you already have though, based on the declaration that it's automatically contextual.

 

YPA on average has to have risen for QB's in the Big 12 since 06-08, which was the meat of Daniels college career.

[YoloinOhio]

I wonder how many scouts will be attendance here on Sept. 9 to watch Mayfield vs Ohio state. His draft stock will move up or down considerably with that showing given how he played last year in that game. He wasn't awful but he wasn't good either.

It's over hyped but make no mistake it is WAY BETTER than the 17 class. If Darnold plays the same or improves he will go number one over all.

 

We all need to pray that KC goes 0-16.

 

Wow, Michigan is getting a lot of QB prospects.

 

Sounds about right, Kyper has to be right once in awhile.

there is another mccaffrey as well who is a QB. Luke. 2019 recruit. Buckeyes have offered. I won't rest until there is a mccaffrey at every major college program. Edited May 15, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[thebandit27]

Can you explain why you think that? How could a conference that morphed into a pinball machine not inflate YPA? I'm at work now but I can dig into some conference numbers later and figuere it out. I'm assuming you already have though, based on the declaration that it's automatically contextual.

 

YPA on average has to have risen for QB's in the Big 12 since 06-08, which was the meat of Daniels college career.

 

I say that based upon the idea that the vast increase in number of attempts will almost assuredly lead to vast increases in volumetric stats like yardage and TDs, whereas YPA appears to be wholly unrelated to attempts, and is therefore a qualitative indicator (as opposed to the others, which are quantitative).

 

Even as recently as Mahomes you've seen guys who have their entire career YPA range between 8.0 and 8.5, which falls right in line with that of the Chase Daniels of their respective day. Case-in-point: the only other passer in the Big 12 that had a YPA greater than 9.0 in 2016 was Mason Rudolph, who came in at 9.1. After that, you get to Mahomes, who had a YPA of 8.5, and Skyler Howard, who managed 8.2. The others all fell below 8.0.

Edited May 15, 2017 by thebandit27

[SoTier]

 

Your numbers for 2014 are wrong. There were 5 guys that were being looked at. Derek Carr, Jimmy G, and Teddy B are all hits. Teddy B had a terrible injury but the Vikings were happy and his trajectory was positive. At best you need to remove him from the misses. Then you have Bortles and Johnny Manziel. Manziel wouldn't have been drafted in the first if not for Browns owner. Bortles was the guy that a team drafted high and he has a lot of the qualities that people like from 2018 class. Tall, pro-style, etc.

 

Your assertion that a QB will be there at ten that is better than anyone from 2017 I also find speculative. There is nothing to back that up.

I generally agree with your post but I think you are wrong about the 2014 QB class in that I'd rate only 1 of the 5 QBs you named as a "hit". Only Carr has developed into a decent starter. That's not saying he's a franchise QB yet but he's probably worth more than the 2nd round pick the Raiders spent to get him, something that can't be said all that often about QBs taken in the first two rounds of the draft -- or the other QBs in his draft class.

 

Bortles regressed badly last season, something that's an ominous sign. It suggests that he hit his peak back as a sophomore and isn't going to improve significantly, so he's probably done. The only QB since the merger who started out well, regressed, and then continued on to have a stellar career was Drew Brees. Count Bortles as a miss IMO.

 

Bridgewater is probably finished because of his injury, but even before that, his game had serious deficiencies, particularly his apparent unwillingess to go long. Maybe he would have overcome that as Tannehill seems to have done, but it's likely we'll never know. I hate to count him as a miss but he's a question mark at best.

 

Garoppolo hasn't proved squat yet. He started 4 or 5 games in his NFL career. If he was that good, Brady would have had a harder time getting his job back or maybe not even gotten it back at all. Remember, it was Brady who took over for starter/Pro Bowler Drew Bledsoe in 2001 and never looked back. The chances are that Garoppolo is closer to Brock Osweiler than to Tom Brady. Another question mark but likely a miss.

 

Manziel shouldn't have been drafted in the first round at all ... and probably not until the third round at best if not the third day of the draft. The red flags on him were well known. A big miss.

 

Generally speaking, over the years, drafts have yielded about 1 decent starting QB. Occasionally, 2 decent starters will emerge (2008) and sometimes all of them will be duds (2007 and 2013). Usually there will be 1 or 2 decent backups/low quallity starters who come out of the later rounds, although often first rounders will stick around as mediocre starters and then backups for a while. This seems to hold true whether there's 1 or 2 QBs taken in the first round or 4.

 

The best QB draft EVER was 1983: Elway, Kelly, and Marino were all HOFers and Ken O'Brien was a decent starter for several years. Still, KC took Todd Blackledge before Kelly and NE took Tony Eason before Marino. The next best class was 2004 when Eli Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger -- all likely HOFers or considered for HOF -- were taken in the first round. Of course, so was JP Losman. Matt Schaub, taken in the 4th round, started out as a useful backup and had a couple of years as a decent starter.

 

2012 seems to have been the best QB class since 2004. It's yielded one definitely special QB in Russell Wilson, who was not even taken in the first round. Andrew Luck has definitely been successful, although it seems that he's been a bit of a disappointment recently as he's not improved his game as much as one would hope. He was expected to quickly progress to the level of Brees, Brady, and Roethlisberger, but he doesn't seem to have made the strides he needs to reach that level; he still makes a lot of mistakes that he made as a rookie/sophomore. Is it coaching, maybe? Still, most teams would welcome him to their roster if they got the chance. Ryan Tannehill has also become at least a decent starter, perhaps even more, after a rocky start, and Kirk Cousins has come out of nowhere (the 4th round actually) to be another decent starter.

 

It really doesn't matter how these kids are rated by draft gurus or even by organizations. It matters how they adapt and play the pro game, so if 5 QBs are rated higher in 2018 than any of the guys taken in 2017's first round, it means squat unless they turn out to be successful NFL QBs.

[Mark Vader]

Believe it or not, I kind of think Speight might be pretty good. Then again I heard he might not even start this year.

 

 

Really? Who would start over him? Speight is a big kid with good arm, he was ok last yr interesting to see if he improves.

I know that Michigan is very high on Brandon Peters, but he is still only a Freshman, and Speight had a good year in 2016.

 

Harbaugh loves to add to the drama by having his open competitions, but Speight would have to fall on his face to not be this year's starter.

[Dr. Who]

SoTier,

 

Sound description of the situation, but it leaves me wondering if there is any prescriptive advice hidden in the description. Or is it mainly a matter of chance?

My view is that we likely do not have a franchise qb on the roster. I expect us to draft a qb early unless someone we have now unexpectedly emerges as a franchise qb.

I surmise there must be some rational basis for determining which highly rated qbs in 2018 are more likely to achieve NFL success.

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

I know that Michigan is very high on Brandon Peters, but he is still only a Freshman, and Speight had a good year in 2016.

 

Harbaugh loves to add to the drama by having his open competitions, but Speight would have to fall on his face to not be this year's starter.

Speight looked promising to me. The injury set him back a bit last year of course but he really seems like a tough, smart kid. Harbaugh will have him prepared for the NFL too with that system. They are going to start cranking out QBs imo. Edited May 15, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[jeffismagic]

SoTier,

 

Sound description of the situation, but it leaves me wondering if there is any prescriptive advice hidden in the description. Or is it mainly a matter of chance?

My view is that we likely do not have a franchise qb on the roster. I expect us to draft a qb early unless someone we have now unexpectedly emerges as a franchise qb.

I surmise there must be some rational basis for determining which highly rated qbs in 2018 are more likely to achieve NFL success.

 

 

My advice would be to not follow Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Greg Cossell, or any of the standard talking heads. You want to find someone with great NFL traits who also played well and was productive in college. If guys aren't getting it done in college, they don't usually get it at the next level. You also don't draft a guy who played well in college if he is lacking the tools to go up a level.

 

The best bet for finding a top QB would be to have a John Gruden, Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, or Jim Bob Cooter on your staff. Since the Bills don't I would pay John Gruden 1 million dollars to watch the tape he watches anyway and to give me his QB notes off the record.