Top NFL QB Prospects for 2018

[ghostwriter]

1 hour ago, Buffalo30 said:

 

This is one of the bigger games that Mason Rudolph had this year.  TCU has a solid defense and has always been known for their defense. Rudolph had a horribly frustrating game.  Missing easy throws, showing inconsistent footwork, lacking awareness in the pocket and throwing a pair of picks in the loss.  He had a 53.7 completion percentage in this game.  He has great wide outs and most of his incompletions were on him.  He put up a dud in this game.  

 

Against Oklahoma he had a 51.9 completion percentage and 2 picks as well.  Those were the two biggest games he had this year and the two toughest defenses he faced and he bombed in my opinion.  He showed a slew of deficiencies.  He doesn't excite me like some of the other QBs in this class.  I would be very concerned if we drafted him.  I don't see him as a first round pick but more of a high two, like Andy Dalton was.  Too many things he's not consistent with, he hasn't shown up in big games this year so far and he has a weaker arm.  His stats are extremely inflated due to the system he runs which doesn't have him under center and his receivers get a ton of YAC.

 

I have a very hard time getting behind drafting Rudolph.

 

I can't even imagine what he'd do against an SEC defense like Alabama.  

We're not going to get a bulletproof prospect unless we package both 1sts and go after Rosen or Darnold. Your boy Allen threw 13 TDs and 12 INTs last year, where's your concern there? Baker is too short, Lamar is more of a runner and on and on we go. I can pick holes in any prospect, Brady was benched for Drew Henson! Every single prospect in this draft can be torn apart, even Rosen and Darnold. Rudolph has a pretty good arm and he can read defenses, I think he translates to the NFL, reminds me of Alex Smith.

[The Now Moment]

22 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

We're not going to get a bulletproof prospect unless we package both 1sts and go after Rosen or Darnold. Your boy Allen threw 13 TDs and 12 INTs last year, where's your concern there? Baker is too short, Lamar is more of a runner and on and on we go. I can pick holes in any prospect, Brady was benched for Drew Henson! Every single prospect in this draft can be torn apart, even Rosen and Darnold. Rudolph has a pretty good arm and he can read defenses, I think he translates to the NFL, reminds me of Alex Smith.

First off, Allen isn't my boy.  I just think he's the third best QB prospect in this class.  I don't look at stats as they don't mean much.  I look at the games and watch the players play.  Allen's biggest concern is his accuracy and if you watch most of his games, his receivers are dropping passes or he's throwing it away as his offensive line immediately broke down.  He's had to try to do too much to lift up the rest of the team.  I think he will need a year to learn behind a veteran QB before being thrown into the game but his potential is one of the highest this year as his abilities are far beyond some of the other QBs.  Today, he is playing after a shoulder injury has kept him out of the last two games.  A lot of scouts wondered why he decided to play instead of skip and heal up for the combine but he's going to be out there.  We will see if his shoulder becomes an issue to look at moving forward.  

 

Rudolph is on a team that gives him a ton of help.  He has two wide receivers that will likely be chosen high in the draft.  While he does some things well, he's been horribly inconsistent and has shown that in many games this year.  He has been absent in big games this year and even had his struggles in games that they won like the 13-10 win over Texas.  He just isn't impressive to me in any category.  His receivers inflate his stats.  I've seen a ton of plays from him where the receivers take a short pass to the house but it makes his stats look good.  He doesn't show great zip on a lot of his passes and that's concerning to me.  In the TCU game that I pointed out in the previous post, he had a horrible time with his accuracy and making the easy crossing pattern passes.  He didn't show any awareness of pressure and took a few sacks he could have avoided by simply stepping up in the pocket and fumbled a ball do to his lack of awareness.  Some of these things are obviously correctable but he seems to have more deficiencies than the other guys.  I don't see a clear cut first round guy that some others see.  

 

I think the point in analyzing a QB is to pick them apart my man.  Then you know their deficiencies and can decide which ones you think don't matter as much or can easily be corrected with some coaching or more experience.  To me, Rudolph is a second round guy based on a lot of things he's shown on the field this year.  He doesn't do anything really well and that raises questions for me.  He's been very inconsistent this year with a bunch of weapons and an Oklahoma State system that doesn't exactly excite an NFL scout.  

 

You're right, every one of these QBs has deficiencies but like I said, scouts jobs are to pick them apart and see if some of those deficiencies are coachable.  

[Solomon Grundy]

45 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

We're not going to get a bulletproof prospect unless we package both 1sts and go after Rosen or Darnold. Your boy Allen threw 13 TDs and 12 INTs last year, where's your concern there? Baker is too short, Lamar is more of a runner and on and on we go. I can pick holes in any prospect, Brady was benched for Drew Henson! Every single prospect in this draft can be torn apart, even Rosen and Darnold. Rudolph has a pretty good arm and he can read defenses, I think he translates to the NFL, reminds me of Alex Smith.

Rudolph doesn't have a tenth of Alex Smith mobility.

[ghostwriter]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

First off, Allen isn't my boy.  I just think he's the third best QB prospect in this class.  I don't look at stats as they don't mean much.  I look at the games and watch the players play.  Allen's biggest concern is his accuracy and if you watch most of his games, his receivers are dropping passes or he's throwing it away as his offensive line immediately broke down.  He's had to try to do too much to lift up the rest of the team.  I think he will need a year to learn behind a veteran QB before being thrown into the game but his potential is one of the highest this year as his abilities are far beyond some of the other QBs.  Today, he is playing after a shoulder injury has kept him out of the last two games.  A lot of scouts wondered why he decided to play instead of skip and heal up for the combine but he's going to be out there.  We will see if his shoulder becomes an issue to look at moving forward.  

 

Rudolph is on a team that gives him a ton of help.  He has two wide receivers that will likely be chosen high in the draft.  While he does some things well, he's been horribly inconsistent and has shown that in many games this year.  He has been absent in big games this year and even had his struggles in games that they won like the 13-10 win over Texas.  He just isn't impressive to me in any category.  His receivers inflate his stats.  I've seen a ton of plays from him where the receivers take a short pass to the house but it makes his stats look good.  He doesn't show great zip on a lot of his passes and that's concerning to me.  In the TCU game that I pointed out in the previous post, he had a horrible time with his accuracy and making the easy crossing pattern passes.  He didn't show any awareness of pressure and took a few sacks he could have avoided by simply stepping up in the pocket and fumbled a ball do to his lack of awareness.  Some of these things are obviously correctable but he seems to have more deficiencies than the other guys.  I don't see a clear cut first round guy that some others see.  

 

I think the point in analyzing a QB is to pick them apart my man.  Then you know their deficiencies and can decide which ones you think don't matter as much or can easily be corrected with some coaching or more experience.  To me, Rudolph is a second round guy based on a lot of things he's shown on the field this year.  He doesn't do anything really well and that raises questions for me.  He's been very inconsistent this year with a bunch of weapons and an Oklahoma State system that doesn't exactly excite an NFL scout.  

 

You're right, every one of these QBs has deficiencies but like I said, scouts jobs are to pick them apart and see if some of those deficiencies are coachable.  

Rudolph makes routine plays that Allen doesn't, that's my fear with Allen. Sure, he has a cannon and can bomb it down field but Rudolph can thread the needle in the endzone and milk the short and intermediate routes with ease. I just think Rudolph is the smarter player.

2 minutes ago, the skycap said:

Rudolph doesn't have a tenth of Alex Smith mobility.

I meant as a passer.

[The Now Moment]

3 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Rudolph makes routine plays that Allen doesn't, that's my fear with Allen. Sure, he has a cannon and can bomb it down field but Rudolph can thread the needle in the endzone and milk the short and intermediate routes with ease. I just think Rudolph is the smarter player.

Rudolph was inconsistent with those characteristics in my opinion this year.  Just watch his throws in the TCU game I posted above.  He constantly missed guys open on short passes.  Was very unimpressive in a handful of games this year.  

[Solomon Grundy]

Read Deshaun Watson's scouting report from PFF and tell me if it doesn't mirror Lamar Jackson's.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pff-scouting-report-deshaun-watson-qb-clemson

[ghostwriter]

1 minute ago, Buffalo30 said:

Rudolph was inconsistent with those characteristics in my opinion this year.  Just watch his throws in the TCU game I posted above.  He constantly missed guys open on short passes.  Was very unimpressive in a handful of games this year.  

Fair enough but I can't see how you can justify Allen over Rudolph. Big arm isn't everything, good QBs make everyone around them better and carry their team on their back, Allen did not do that. I will admit, he has Big Ben moments but his production scares the living daylights out of me.

 

 

[The Now Moment]

5 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Fair enough but I can't see how you can justify Allen over Rudolph. Big arm isn't everything, good QBs make everyone around them better and carry their team on their back, Allen did not do that. I will admit, he has Big Ben moments but his production scares the living daylights out of me.

 

 

He was 6-1 before he got hurt and had a game winning drive to win the game in one of those wins.  He most certainly was a huge reason they were 6-1. Again, college stats mean nothing

Edited December 22, 2017 by Buffalo30

[ghostwriter]

1 minute ago, Buffalo30 said:

He was 6-1 before he got hurt and had a game winning drive to win the game in one of those wins.  He most certainly was a huge reason they were 6-1. Again, college stats mean nothing

They do mean something. Andy Dalton, Carson Wentz and Big Ben dominated while playing for smaller schools, Josh Allen hasn't done that, sorry but that's a huge red flag to me. Josh Allen is the riskiest QB prospect in the draft. 

[The Now Moment]

5 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

They do mean something. Andy Dalton, Carson Wentz and Big Ben dominated while playing for smaller schools, Josh Allen hasn't done that, sorry but that's a huge red flag to me. Josh Allen is the riskiest QB prospect in the draft. 

That's why I wouldn't be throwing him out there year one and grooming him behind a veteran.  I think that will be the best way to reach his potential.  I just see a very average QB when I look at Rudolph and a low ceiling.  Doesn't excite me much

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, NewDayBills said:

We're not going to get a bulletproof prospect unless we package both 1sts and go after Rosen or Darnold. Your boy Allen threw 13 TDs and 12 INTs last year, where's your concern there? Baker is too short, Lamar is more of a runner and on and on we go. I can pick holes in any prospect, Brady was benched for Drew Henson! Every single prospect in this draft can be torn apart, even Rosen and Darnold. Rudolph has a pretty good arm and he can read defenses, I think he translates to the NFL, reminds me of Alex Smith.

 

...don't really see this gang giving up both 1sts with many holes to fill.....would Darnold be better off staying a year and perhaps being #1 overall in 2019 depending on the class or do you see that as inconsequential as he may go within the top 3 picks of 2018?.....IF they all come out and this gang does NOT sacrifice any 1st round picks, who is your safest choice?...wish I could see college ball, but schedule does not permit.....

[ghostwriter]

Just now, Buffalo30 said:

That's why I wouldn't be throwing him out there year one and grooming him behind a veteran.  I think that will be the best way to reach his potential.  I just see a very average QB when I look at Rudolph and a low ceiling.  Doesn't excite me much

Thing with Allen, you see this massive QB with a big arm that is physically imposing and you're getting caught up in his potential, potential that he may never reach nor shown and I think any time you draft based off of potential, you're much more likely to get burned. Rudolph doesn't have the arm Allen has, he can't run and gun like Allen does but he is a more cerebral QB than Allen is. Sure there are missed throws, sure he may never be a top 10 QB, he may likely be an Andy Dalton type QB but I'll take it because although his ceiling isn't as high, his floor is much much higher than Allen's.

5 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...don't really see this gang giving up both 1sts with many holes to fill.....would Darnold be better off staying a year and perhaps being #1 overall in 2019 depending on the class or do you see that as inconsequential as he may go within the top 3 picks of 2018?.....IF they all come out and this gang does NOT sacrifice any 1st round picks, who is your safest choice?...wish I could see college ball, but schedule does not permit.....

I was initially high on Allen but the more I learn about him, the more I want to run away. It's still so early, I don't know where I'd rank everyone right now.

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

6 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Thing with Allen, you see this massive QB with a big arm that is physically imposing and you're getting caught up in his potential, potential that he may never reach nor shown and I think any time you draft based off of potential, you're much more likely to get burned. Rudolph doesn't have the arm Allen has, he can't run and gun like Allen does but he is a more cerebral QB than Allen is. Sure there are missed throws, sure he may never be a top 10 QB, he may likely be an Andy Dalton type QB but I'll take it because although his ceiling isn't as high, his floor is much much higher than Allen's.

I was initially high on Allen but the more I learn about him, the more I want to run away. It's still so early, I don't know where I'd rank everyone right now.

 

 

 

....so would you classify him as your "safe pick"?.......some mocks have him going in the 20's so you'd still have your other 1st for OL or DL......

[The Now Moment]

6 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Thing with Allen, you see this massive QB with a big arm that is physically imposing and you're getting caught up in his potential, potential that he may never reach nor shown and I think any time you draft based off of potential, you're much more likely to get burned. Rudolph doesn't have the arm Allen has, he can't run and gun like Allen does but he is a more cerebral QB than Allen is. Sure there are missed throws, sure he may never be a top 10 QB, he may likely be an Andy Dalton type QB but I'll take it because although his ceiling isn't as high, his floor is much much higher than Allen's.

 

I just can't get behind the drafting of a guy that's ceiling looks like Andy Dalton.  That makes me sick.  Besides the top two guys, you are drafting based on potential.  Rudolph is inconsistent right now.  It's not like he's been consistent, that'd be one thing.  Rudolph has been absent in big games...sounds a lot like Dalton in the NFL.  That doesn't excite me in the slightest.  I'd rather take the guy with potential and let him sit a year to learn. In that time, we can sure up the oline and bring in some more young talents to fill out the rest of the roster that will allow him to not feel so much pressure when he comes in to do it all.

[ghostwriter]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

I just can't get behind the drafting of a guy that's ceiling looks like Andy Dalton.  That makes me sick.  Besides the top two guys, you are drafting based on potential.  Rudolph is inconsistent right now.  It's not like he's been consistent, that'd be one thing.  Rudolph has been absent in big games...sounds a lot like Dalton in the NFL.  That doesn't excite me in the slightest.  I'd rather take the guy with potential and let him sit a year to learn. In that time, we can sure up the oline and bring in some more young talents to fill out the rest of the roster that will allow him to not feel so much pressure when he comes in to do it all.

Rudolph reminds me of an Andy Dalton or Alex Smith type QB for sure but he could be better or worse. Allen I think has a really good chance of flaming out. Should have taken Mahomes last year, that was my guy but here we are now. With Rudolph, I think we could be in the playoffs. I'm not saying Allen will bust but I think the riskiest prospect, too risky for me.

11 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....so would you classify him as your "safe pick"?.......some mocks have him going in the 20's so you'd still have your other 1st for OL or DL......

I do. I think Rudolph is safer than Mayfield, Jackson and Allen.

[The Now Moment]

4 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Rudolph reminds me of an Andy Dalton or Alex Smith type QB for sure but he could be better or worse. Allen I think has a really good chance of flaming out. Should have taken Mahomes last year, that was my guy but here we are now. With Rudolph, I think we could be in the playoffs. I'm not saying Allen will bust but I think the riskiest prospect, too risky for me.

Dalton/Smith haven't done squat in the playoffs even with good teams around them.  I'd rather take a chance on Allen do everything you can to succeed and maybe he will turn into a Rothlisberger type.  Rudolph isn't a sure thing either and if his ceiling is a slightly better Dalton, I'm still really unexcited about that.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

5 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Rudolph reminds me of an Andy Dalton or Alex Smith type QB for sure but he could be better or worse. Allen I think has a really good chance of flaming out. Should have taken Mahomes last year, that was my guy but here we are now. With Rudolph, I think we could be in the playoffs. I'm not saying Allen will bust but I think the riskiest prospect, too risky for me.

 

...we have been blessed with the OBD braintrusts and preeminent "Directors Of Selection & Development" for QB's, ALWAYS high on their positional priority list....Dalton (2nd), Wilson (3rd), Stanton (2nd), McCarron (4th) etc were all FAR below their "standards"......excluding Wilson for obvious reasons (TJ was THE value pick-COUGH), the others could have been brought along with the right coaching (ANOTHER big problem) to be decent starters.......

[ghostwriter]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

Dalton/Smith haven't done squat in the playoffs even with good teams around them.  I'd rather take a chance on Allen do everything you can to succeed and maybe he will turn into a Rothlisberger type.  Rudolph isn't a sure thing either and if his ceiling is a slightly better Dalton, I'm still really unexcited about that.

Trent Dilfer won a SB, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Brad freaking Johnson. Tons of slightly above average QBs have won. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger type QBs don't grow on trees. I think if those are your standards, you're never going to be happy. I'd kill to have Andy Dalton or the Kansas City version of Alex Smith type QB here. You can win a ring with a slightly above average, solid type QB.

[The Now Moment]

2 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Trent Dilfer won a SB, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Brad freaking Johnson. Tons of slightly above average QBs have won. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger type QBs don't grow on trees. I think if those are your standards, you're never going to be happy. I'd kill to have Andy Dalton or the Kansas City version of Alex Smith type QB here. You can win a ring with a slightly above average, solid type QB.

I understand they can be good with great teams around them.  However, I'd rather take the guy with higher potential.  Most of those guys fail because they are thrown to the wolves right away.  I stated that we should be patient and let the guy grow in a favorable situation for him.  

[ghostwriter]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

I understand they can be good with great teams around them.  However, I'd rather take the guy with higher potential.  Most of those guys fail because they are thrown to the wolves right away.  I stated that we should be patient and let the guy grow in a favorable situation for him.  

But we're talking about a guy who threw 13 TDs and 12 INTs last year. Sure, I guess he can become the next Big Ben and btw, I play guitar, there is a chance I can become the next Jimmy Page.

16 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...we have been blessed with the OBD braintrusts and preeminent "Directors Of Selection & Development" for QB's, ALWAYS high on their positional priority list....Dalton (2nd), Wilson (3rd), Stanton (2nd), McCarron (4th) etc were all FAR below their "standards"......excluding Wilson for obvious reasons (TJ was THE value pick-COUGH), the others could have been brought along with the right coaching (ANOTHER big problem) to be decent starters.......

That's right. If we wait for a generational talent, we may never find our QB. I could raise my standards bang only supermodels, problem is, I'd never get laid.