Buddo Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 Looking at the trade without getting into how guys might turn out, over the years, it's been generally held that from the old draft value chart, you drop down a round, when valuing future picks, and you do so by a round per year in the future. Now, both the chart, and the way future picks are valued, may have changed, but by what was previously conventional wisdom, the Bills lost out on the trade, in respect of values. KC gets 1300 points, the Bills get 1126, assuming that KC drafts exactly where they did this year. Using that process, KC would have to be picking between 9 and 11 next year for it to be an 'even' trade. Even with a difficult schedule, I can't see the Chiefs dropping that far back. Hence the belief that the Bills got hosed in the trade. In all honesty, I think you do have to assume that teams nowadays, actually value future picks differently. A 'best guess' would be that they assign a value equal to the lowest pick in that round, or maybe the highest pick of the round one below. Do that, and the trade starts to even out, or the Bills get the better of it. Bottom line is, it's all about how teams these days, value a future pick, when it comes to draft trades. My initial reaction to the trade, was 'they only got that much?'. I still feel we should have got an extra pick, like a 5th this year, that we could package to go up if desired. However, we did need to get an extra pick this year, and having an extra 1st next year, is not to be sneezed at. In general terms, how the trade works out, will be determined by how well the guys do, that we took with the picks we got. I couldn't care less about what happens with KC and Mahomes (except for them having a poor 2017 so we get a better pick in 2018 ). No point having extra picks, if you get a bunch of donuts for them. At the end of the day, we haven't done badly, in that we get a CB who is just as likely to be as effective in a zone scheme, as a more talented guy taken earlier, while getting an extra 3rd this year, and an extra 1st next year.
row_33 Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 "At the end of the day, we haven't done badly, in that we get a CB who is just as likely to be as effective in a zone scheme, as a more talented guy taken earlier, while getting an extra 3rd this year, and an extra 1st next year." Sounds about right, nice to see some thought put into the draft, hope it turns out well.
jeffismagic Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 I agree...however, if that D declines even a little bit, those tight games turn into more than 1 score games and I don't know that offense has the firepower to make up for the deficiency. They very well can keep trucking along and win that division, but honestly I do think the D is going to slip a little this year and those close games get a lot harder to win when that happens. I mean we lost 6 of our 8 games with TT by less than 6 points...our D was also one of the worst in the league in points allowed. But who knows, maybe the D maintains or improves, I just think they are going to miss some players more than people think. 16th. Middle of the road.
row_33 Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) 16th. Middle of the road. Opposing teams went up two scores and put on the brakes all season for O and D to get the easy win Edited April 28, 2017 by row_33
Doc Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 Looking at the trade without getting into how guys might turn out, over the years, it's been generally held that from the old draft value chart, you drop down a round, when valuing future picks, and you do so by a round per year in the future. Now, both the chart, and the way future picks are valued, may have changed, but by what was previously conventional wisdom, the Bills lost out on the trade, in respect of values. KC gets 1300 points, the Bills get 1126, assuming that KC drafts exactly where they did this year. Using that process, KC would have to be picking between 9 and 11 next year for it to be an 'even' trade. Even with a difficult schedule, I can't see the Chiefs dropping that far back. Hence the belief that the Bills got hosed in the trade. In all honesty, I think you do have to assume that teams nowadays, actually value future picks differently. A 'best guess' would be that they assign a value equal to the lowest pick in that round, or maybe the highest pick of the round one below. Do that, and the trade starts to even out, or the Bills get the better of it. Bottom line is, it's all about how teams these days, value a future pick, when it comes to draft trades. My initial reaction to the trade, was 'they only got that much?'. I still feel we should have got an extra pick, like a 5th this year, that we could package to go up if desired. However, we did need to get an extra pick this year, and having an extra 1st next year, is not to be sneezed at. In general terms, how the trade works out, will be determined by how well the guys do, that we took with the picks we got. I couldn't care less about what happens with KC and Mahomes (except for them having a poor 2017 so we get a better pick in 2018 ). No point having extra picks, if you get a bunch of donuts for them. At the end of the day, we haven't done badly, in that we get a CB who is just as likely to be as effective in a zone scheme, as a more talented guy taken earlier, while getting an extra 3rd this year, and an extra 1st next year. Um, Buddo, the Bills also got the Chefs' 3rd round pick this year (#91 overall). The difference between the 27th and 91st picks and the 10th pick is 484, which corresponds to the ~10th pick of the 2nd round (next year).
Buddo Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 Um, Buddo, the Bills also got the Chefs' 3rd round pick this year (#91 overall). The difference between the 27th and 91st picks and the 10th pick is 484, which corresponds to the ~10th pick of the 2nd round (next year). Yes, I know, and it still doesn't alter how I worked out the numbers. The total, including the 3rd round pick, is 1126, for us, assuming a 2nd round value for the 2018 pick. Differences between given picks, are irrelevant, when using total values.
Alphadawg7 Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) 16th. Middle of the road. Nope. We had a fluke shut out in week 4 against the Pats with no Brady, No Jimmy, No Gronk and a rookie QB with a bad hand. In the remaining 15 games we were 26th in the NFL in points allowed. What do you think is the better indicator of how good our Defense was? The year end total with a fluke shutout game with extreme circumstances, especially considering when Brady was playing a few weeks later he hung 41 on us. Or the other 15 games where we were the bottom of the NFL in points allowed? You KNOW the correct answer. I don't give a crap about how one fluke game skews our year end total. I care that our D gave up over 25 points per game in NINETY FOUR percent of our Season. You will NOT win many games when you do that. Our defense was atrocious...not middle of the road...but atrocious. And if you even assume Brady scores at least 30 on our week 4 had he not been suspended, for the season we would have been 28th in the NFL in points allowed, and its pretty much a 100% certainty he would have scored at least 30 on us had he played week 4. Hell, Jimmy probably would have too. So keep PRETENDING our defense was middle of the road all you want, but you are categorically 100% either lying or blind. You know all this information already, we have been over it a bunch of times. But you can't help yourself because you will do ANYTHING to try and make Tyrod a bigger issue than our Defense, but its just not factually true on any scale by any measure. Our defense was pathetic. Edited April 28, 2017 by Alphadawg7
jeffismagic Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 Nope. We had a fluke shut out in week 4 against the Pats with no Brady, No Jimmy, No Gronk and a rookie QB with a bad hand. In the remaining 15 games we were 26th in the NFL in points allowed. What do you think is the better indicator of how good our Defense was? The year end total with a fluke shutout game with extreme circumstances, especially considering when Brady was playing a few weeks later he hung 41 on us. Or the other 15 games where we were the bottom of the NFL in points allowed? You KNOW the correct answer. I don't give a crap about how one fluke game skews our year end total. I care that our D gave up over 25 points per game in NINETY FOUR percent of our Season. You will NOT win many games when you do that. Our defense was atrocious...not middle of the road...but atrocious. And if you even assume Brady scores at least 30 on our week 4 had he not been suspended, for the season we would have been 28th in the NFL in points allowed, and its pretty much a 100% certainty he would have scored at least 30 on us had he played week 4. Hell, Jimmy probably would have too. So keep PRETENDING our defense was middle of the road all you want, but you are categorically 100% either lying or blind. You know all this information already, we have been over it a bunch of times. But you can't help yourself because you will do ANYTHING to try and make Tyrod a bigger issue than our Defense, but its just not factually true on any scale by any measure. Our defense was pathetic. Do you remove random games for the offense as well? How would that affect points per game?
Alphadawg7 Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) Do you remove random games for the offense as well? How would that affect points per game? Come on man, you can stop the nonsense. You know damn well that we don't shut out the Pats if Brady played. And if you think that getting one fluke shutout against the best team in the NFL due to extreme circumstances a season while giving up over 25 points per game in the other 15 is middle of the road, then you don't understand football enough to comment. Never have I seen someone try and claim a defense that was as pathetic as ours as "middle of the road". Literally were on of the 4 or 5 worst defenses in the league...but keep hanging your hat on that fluke game where Brady, Jimmy and Gronk are gone. Hey, maybe we can sweet talk BB to sit Brady, Jimmy and Gronk every game they play us so we can pad our stats to mask how the rest of the NFL is making our defense their b*tch the other 14 games. You see, you don't care anything about reality...you care about selling your agenda. You will say anything to support your claims. Facts are Facts...our D was an embarrassment...but you want to pretend it wasn't and use a FALSE indicator (Pats shutout) to down play how bad we really were...all in an effort to promote your opinion that TT was the bigger the problem. I don't even care that you hate TT, its the BS nonsense you spew to try and make that point. Edited April 28, 2017 by Alphadawg7
jeffismagic Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 Come on man, you can stop the nonsense. You know damn well that we don't shut out the Pats if Brady played. And if you think that getting one shutout a season while giving up over 25 points per game in the other 15 is middle of the road, then you don't understand football enough to comment. Never have I seen someone try and claim a defense that was as pathetic as ours as "middle of the road". Literally were on of the 4 or 5 worst defenses in the league...but keep hanging your hat on that fluke game where Brady, Jimmy and Gronk are gone. Hey, maybe we can sweet talk BB to sit Brady, Jimmy and Gronk every game they play us so we can pad our stats to mask how the rest of the NFL is making our defense their b*tch the other 14 games. You didn't like what the numbers said so you went data fishing. Every team will play other teams during the year with injuries, backups, etc.
Alphadawg7 Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 You didn't like what the numbers said so you went data fishing. Every team will play other teams during the year with injuries, backups, etc. LMAO...you are priceless. Shocker no one around here takes you seriously.
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 LMAO...you are priceless. Shocker no one around here takes you seriously. ....c'mon....he just saved 15% on his car insurance with GEICO.....Jesus................
Big Blitz Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 Chiefs schedule @ New England (opening night) Vs. Phily @ Chargers Vs. Redskins @ Texans Vs. Steelers @ Raiders Vs. Denver @ Dallas @ Giants Vs. Bills @ Jets Vs. Raiders Vs. Chargers Vs. Dolphins @ Denver I hope Eric Berry and Justin Houston stay on the field.... Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Doc Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 Yes, I know, and it still doesn't alter how I worked out the numbers. The total, including the 3rd round pick, is 1126, for us, assuming a 2nd round value for the 2018 pick. Differences between given picks, are irrelevant, when using total values. I see what you did now. You took the 1st rounder next year and made it worth the 59th pick (27th spot of the 2nd round) in this year's draft. While I understand the methodology, I have never agreed with it. To put it into perspective, ask yourself this: would a team trade their 1st rounder next year for the Chefs' 59th overall pick this year?
reddogblitz Posted April 28, 2017 Posted April 28, 2017 They're built to win tight games - Good run game, and good defense. Went 6-0 in the division and lost a few tight ones. Smart. If you can't win close games you watch the playoffs on TV. We were a few close losses away from playoffs last year. Hawks and Fish and Raisins.
dave mcbride Posted April 29, 2017 Posted April 29, 2017 They can laugh. The Chiefs did two things that are not historically smart at the same time! (1) trading up for a QB very rarely works out, and (2) they drafted a guy from an Air Raid offense. But I'm sure this time it will work. As i have said elsewhere, no one effing knows whether Mahomes will be good or not, and if they claim that they do, they are completely full of it. Come on man, you can stop the nonsense. You know damn well that we don't shut out the Pats if Brady played. And if you think that getting one fluke shutout against the best team in the NFL due to extreme circumstances a season while giving up over 25 points per game in the other 15 is middle of the road, then you don't understand football enough to comment. Never have I seen someone try and claim a defense that was as pathetic as ours as "middle of the road". Literally were on of the 4 or 5 worst defenses in the league...but keep hanging your hat on that fluke game where Brady, Jimmy and Gronk are gone. Hey, maybe we can sweet talk BB to sit Brady, Jimmy and Gronk every game they play us so we can pad our stats to mask how the rest of the NFL is making our defense their b*tch the other 14 games. You see, you don't care anything about reality...you care about selling your agenda. You will say anything to support your claims. Facts are Facts...our D was an embarrassment...but you want to pretend it wasn't and use a FALSE indicator (Pats shutout) to down play how bad we really were...all in an effort to promote your opinion that TT was the bigger the problem. I don't even care that you hate TT, its the BS nonsense you spew to try and make that point. We were also playing frodo of the nine fingers in that game. One of Brissett's fingers on his throwing hand was hurt to the point of uselessness.
Alphadawg7 Posted April 29, 2017 Posted April 29, 2017 As i have said elsewhere, no one effing knows whether Mahomes will be good or not, and if they claim that they do, they are completely full of it. We were also playing frodo of the nine fingers in that game. One of Brissett's fingers on his throwing hand was hurt to the point of uselessness. Shhhhhh, dont ruin Jeffismagic fantasy. He still thinks our D was middle of the pack and Mahomes is a Demigod.
Doc Posted April 29, 2017 Posted April 29, 2017 Shhhhhh, dont ruin Jeffismagic fantasy. He still thinks our D was middle of the pack and Mahomes is a Demigod. Not sure why. It's not like TTU QB's translate to the NFL. And Reid has developed no one. 1
jeffismagic Posted April 29, 2017 Posted April 29, 2017 Not sure why. It's not like TTU QB's translate to the NFL. And Reid has developed no one. I have had people that I trust call me and they think he's special. He won't start till 2018. We can revisit then.
Doc Posted April 29, 2017 Posted April 29, 2017 I have had people that I trust call me and they think he's special. He won't start till 2018. We can revisit then. Ok.
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