Bills Big Board, as per Leroi

[Estro]

Ah got ya. I can see Thomas, I can see Howard, I can't see Davis or Ross at 10. Maybe after a trade down but no way at 10. Lattimore wont be there so no worries

Davis is much more coveted than you're led to believe if you listen to the draft "pundits". He's going inside the first 20 picks. And the logic that you can't take him @ 10 because a lot of mocks have him going later is not sound. If you take him @ 10 and he ends up being a better WR than Sammy Watkins, which I certainly believe he will, is it still way too early to take him?

[DriveFor1Outta5]

Davis is much more coveted than you're led to believe if you listen to the draft "pundits". He's going inside the first 20 picks. And the logic that you can't take him @ 10 because a lot of mocks have him going later is not sound. If you take him @ 10 and he ends up being a better WR than Sammy Watkins, which I certainly believe he will, is it still way too early to take him?

I wonder if there is a chance we decline Watkins option if we can get Davis or Williams? They still haven't picked it up so it makes me wonder. I think it may depend upon if McDermott or Whaley is running the show.

[Big Turk]

The myth, the man, the legend. For those of us that have been on the board the last few years, we know to trust Leroi over any of the other pundits....Why? What he says actually happens.

 

His Bills big board (in order of preference):

 

1. Solomon Thomas

2. Corey Davis

3. Marshon Lattimore

4. O.J. Howard

5. John Ross

 

Now let's break this down a little further. I won't go as far as saying S. Thomas is a lock to be picked before #10, but I have trouble envisioning both the Panthers @ #8 and the Bengals @ #9 passing on Thomas. Could the Bills flip a 3rd rounder & #10 to the Chargers if they're enamored w/ Thomas? I guess they could, but if they stay put at #10 I think Thomas is off the board.

 

Corey Davis, a personal favorite, is sneaky. Most everybody in the "pundit" world would say Davis will be there at #10, but I'm not sold. His game tape is phenomenal, and he plays the most important position in football other than QB, IMO. He's a difference maker & I think the 49ers, Titans, Chargers and Bengals all teams that pick before us would love a WR like C. Davis. I'm particularly nervous about the Bengals. I believe the Bengals would take S. Thomas over Davis, but if Thomas is gone I think Davis will be in serious consideration at #9.

 

Lattimore.....I thought there was an outside chance he could be there at #10, but with Sidney Jones injury and Conley's legal problem some of that nice CB depth is disappearing. I'm more confident that Lattimore will be gone @10 than I am for either Davis or Thomas.

 

O.J. Howard. I like the idea of adding Davis because I want to add to our offense. The thought of Sammy Watkins going down and picturing what our offense would look like is scary. Even with Sammy healthy the thought of our WR's and TE's is pretty scary, in the bad way. Some of the draft analysts I really like, really like O.J. Howard & that works for me. Howard is the guy I'd be the most excited for on this list, with the exception of Corey Davis. Might be gone though, both the 49ers & Titans could pull the trigger a lot earlier than expected. Mayock has him going #6.

 

John Ross would create a meltdown on this board. The injury history coupled with the belief that he could be had a dozen picks later would have most fans upset. This pick would surprise me, but if the 4 guys above him are all gone maybe we're in for a surprise.

 

Final Analysis:

 

45% chance Corey Davis (#2 on our board and better than 50/50 chance he's available)

20% chance O.J. Howard (#3 on our board & 50/50 chance he's available)

15% chance Solomon Thomas (#1 on our board, but highly likely he's not available)

12.5% chance John Ross (our #5 guy, should be available. Will everybody above him be gone? I'd bet No, but it is possible)

7.5% chance of Marshon Lattimore (our 3rd ranked guy + least likely to be available = not likely the Bills pick)

 

I'm hoping for Davis. O.J. Howard would be nice too. We find out in about 24 hours folks! Enjoy!

 

And shout out to Leroi for adding to the excitement.

 

IMHO,

 

Football is about exploiting mismatches and there is no mismatch bigger than putting 2 Athletic TE's on the field at the same time. Why? Because no matter what the defense does to counter, they still lose.

If they stay in their base D, that means a safety or LB is going to have to try and cover the TE in space...huge mismatch---the LB because he isn't going to be able to run downfield with the TE and the safety because the TE can just post him up basketball style and there is nothing he can do except make the tackle once the TE catches the ball. If they deceide to bring in Nickel to try and put a CB on one of them, then you outnumber them at the point of attack and you can just run the ball down their throat with 7 blockers(5 OL plus both TE's).

 

No matter what the D does they lose, and it's why New England covets that formation so much...they exploit mismatches better than any other team and they know there is no bigger mismatch than that.

 

If Howard is there at 10 I would take him.

Edited April 27, 2017 by matter2003

[DriveFor1Outta5]

 

IMHO,

 

Football is about exploiting mismatches and there is no mismatch bigger than putting 2 Athletic TE's on the field at the same time. Why? Because no matter what the defense does to counter, they still lose.

If they stay in their base D, that means a safety or LB is going to have to try and cover the TE in space...huge mismatch---the LB because he isn't going to be able to run downfield with the TE and the safety because the TE can just post him up basketball style and there is nothing he can do except make the tackle once the TE catches the ball. If they deceide to bring in Nickel to try and put a CB on one of them, then you outnumber them at the point of attack and you can just run the ball down their throat with 7 blockers(5 OL plus both TE's).

 

No matter what the D does they lose, and it's why New England covets that formation so much...they exploit mismatches better than any other team and they know there is no bigger mismatch than that.

 

If Howard is there at 10 I would take him.

I agree with your point, and I hate to give such a simple answer. Our QB doesn't know the middle of the field exists. That's the reason I don't draft Howard.

[Big Turk]

I agree with your point, and I hate to give such a simple answer. Our QB doesn't know the middle of the field exists. That's the reason I don't draft Howard.

Then find someone who does, don't pass up the chance to have one of the best 1-2 TE combinations in the NFL...

 

The other question...is it Tyrod or was it the scheme he ran that dictated where the ball should go?

Edited April 27, 2017 by matter2003

[Domdab99]

 

Yes, he was trying to throw the ball over 60 MPH.

 

Now watch every throw in an actual game.

 

 

 

 

 

I like his confidence...he's got a great long ball, but man, he throws off his back foot so often when throwing to the sidelines...NFL DBs are going to eat that up.

 

 

 

 

IMHO,

 

Football is about exploiting mismatches and there is no mismatch bigger than putting 2 Athletic TE's on the field at the same time. Why? Because no matter what the defense does to counter, they still lose.

If they stay in their base D, that means a safety or LB is going to have to try and cover the TE in space...huge mismatch---the LB because he isn't going to be able to run downfield with the TE and the safety because the TE can just post him up basketball style and there is nothing he can do except make the tackle once the TE catches the ball. If they deceide to bring in Nickel to try and put a CB on one of them, then you outnumber them at the point of attack and you can just run the ball down their throat with 7 blockers(5 OL plus both TE's).

 

No matter what the D does they lose, and it's why New England covets that formation so much...they exploit mismatches better than any other team and they know there is no bigger mismatch than that.

 

If Howard is there at 10 I would take him.

 

This makes sense to me. I love OJ.

I agree with your point, and I hate to give such a simple answer. Our QB doesn't know the middle of the field exists. That's the reason I don't draft Howard.

 

This is a fallacy and has been proven over and over to be so on these boards.

Edited April 27, 2017 by Domdab99

[purple haze]

Solomon Thomas sounds about right. It would be a cute and stupid Bills type draft pick.

If Thomas is there at 10, and the Bills took him, be happy. He's a beast.

[DriveFor1Outta5]

 

This makes sense to me. I love OJ.

 

 

This is a fallacy and has been proven over and over to be so on these boards.

He misses open guys in the middle of the field constantly. I'm not sure what stats have been posted here that show otherwise. I'd like to see them.

[purple haze]

Solomon Thomas sounds about right. It would be a cute and stupid Bills type draft pick.

If Thomas is there at 10, and the Bills took him, be happy. He's a beast.

[DriveFor1Outta5]

If Thomas is there at 10, and the Bills took him, be happy. He's a beast.

I'm not a huge Thomas fan, but now that we're talking about taking OJ Howard he looks a lot better. I'd be happier with Thomas as the pick than another tight end.

[QCity]

Leroi has given some good inside info before, but you're not going to convince me that he's privy to the team's draft board 24 hours before the draft. When you're picking 10th, it's not difficult to name 5 players and hit on one of them. That being said, if his top 4 players are off the board and we pick John Ross, I will come back to this thread for my mea culpa. I'll be absolutely sick to my stomach, but I'll come back to give credit.

[Domdab99]

He misses open guys in the middle of the field constantly. I'm not sure what stats have been posted here that show otherwise. I'd like to see them.

 

here you go:

 

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/1/3/14146508/tyrod-taylor-bills-option-strong-evidence-suggests-buffalo-bills-should-keep-him

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-bills-should-build-around-tyrod-taylor-not-show-him-the-door/

 

Speaking of Tyrod’s game -- you know the idea that he struggles (or is afraid) to throw over the middle? Well, the following numbers essentially prove that’s a fallacy.

While throwing to the middle of the field in 2016, Tyrod completed 103 of 137 (75.1% completion rate) of his passes for 1,027 yards (7.49 yards per attempt) with four TDs and zero INTs. All that equates to a QB Rating of 105.7. His QB rating passing to the right side of the field was an even 105. To the left — 85.7.

His 137 passes to the middle of the field accounted for 34.5% of his 397. Quite an even distribution when splitting the field into thirds.

Also, Tyrod’s 103 completions to the middle of the field accounted for 38.1% of his 270 total completions on the season.

Just 78 of his 270 completions (28.8%) went to the left side of the field and 89 went to the right side (32.9%).

You’re reading that correctly — the highest percentage of Tyrod’s completions in 2016 came in the middle of the field... the specific area in which it was widely believed he didn’t utilize enough.

 

here you go:

 

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/1/3/14146508/tyrod-taylor-bills-option-strong-evidence-suggests-buffalo-bills-should-keep-him

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-bills-should-build-around-tyrod-taylor-not-show-him-the-door/

 

Speaking of Tyrod’s game -- you know the idea that he struggles (or is afraid) to throw over the middle? Well, the following numbers essentially prove that’s a fallacy.

While throwing to the middle of the field in 2016, Tyrod completed 103 of 137 (75.1% completion rate) of his passes for 1,027 yards (7.49 yards per attempt) with four TDs and zero INTs. All that equates to a QB Rating of 105.7. His QB rating passing to the right side of the field was an even 105. To the left — 85.7.

His 137 passes to the middle of the field accounted for 34.5% of his 397. Quite an even distribution when splitting the field into thirds.

Also, Tyrod’s 103 completions to the middle of the field accounted for 38.1% of his 270 total completions on the season.

Just 78 of his 270 completions (28.8%) went to the left side of the field and 89 went to the right side (32.9%).

You’re reading that correctly — the highest percentage of Tyrod’s completions in 2016 came in the middle of the field... the specific area in which it was widely believed he didn’t utilize enough.

[K D]

Davis' game tape jumps out at you like Dez Bryant or Julio Jones coming out. Unfortunately it wasn't against top competition like those guys but you can still see that this guy is a future wr1. I was high on this pick when a lot of people had him going at the end of round 1. His tape is just so impressive. Super athletic, great route runner, catches the ball WITH HIS HANDS.

 

I haven't watched enough of OJ Howard to know if he is worth a #10 overall. I like the TE from Miami too and I feel like we could get him with our second. I wouldn't hate the pick though assuming we actually use him in the offense.

 

McD likes d-backs so I wouldn't be surprised if our pick is whoever is left out of the top guys (S, CB).

 

I would be pretty bummed about a DL, LB, or a receiver like John Ross. If it's a QB this forum is going to crash.

[The Frankish Reich]

Who the !@#$ is Leroi?

Blasphemy! Isn't Leroi one of the topics in that BBMB pretest that all the noobs needed to pass?

[LABILLBACKER]

So far this refugee is not impressed with leroi...and this is one year where nobody has a clue who we're taking.

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

When I get the pick of either LB Reuben Foster or Hassan Reddick correct you can call me LAFONDUH

[BobbyC81]

I can't believe that's the Bills board. I'll be surprised if it isn't a defensive player. I'd go Ruben Foster and then Reddick

[NewEra]

When I get the pick of either LB Reuben Foster or Hassan Reddick correct you can call me LAFONDUH

I won't call you anything, but I'll be really happy

[BuffAlone]

 

McDermott? I expect drafting for need.

Why? Because McDermott has a history as head coach of dtafting for need? You just like to speculate and then find fault in daid speculation. Good grief,man. Find your Zen

[ALF]

No to glass Ross