BillsFan17 Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 We will not have a modern NFL offense until we change the QB. Till then we need to ground and pound. It's also tough to win close games in the 4th quarter when your QB cannot pass the ball when the other team knows you have to pass. Tyrod also struggles in 2 minute offense at end of 1st half for this reason. In any case, there is a good reason to believe a top ten WR will not get much production in the Buffalo offense. If you are in fantasy football and you do a dynasty draft no one wants their WR to end up in Buffalo. It's a death sentence. Oh believe me I know, you and I have disagreed on a few topics, but one thing we agree on... we need a new QB. A QB who can actually throw the ball and we don't have to design an offense to mask the QB. Granted that's easier said than done.
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 They threw 29 times a game last year. They are going to throw it more this year. Roman's offense has historically thrown it the least in the league. I will set the o/u at 3,864 passing yards. That is based on 35 attempts a game (just under where Denver was) and 6.9 YPA (middle of the league which I expect with Sammy and a new number 2). I'd have to think the INTs go up some (let's call it 10) and the TDs at 26 (about 4.6% of he throws). Roman's offense has thrown it the least because they had AlexSmith, Kaepernick, and Tyrod who are all considered some of the worst passing qbs when they start. If Roman had Rodgers, he passes more. This reminds me of when people thought the OC was holding back Losman. The more they let Losman throw, the worse he looked. Tyrod has never been a good throwing qb, going back to college. I've supported Whaley but a wr in the top 10 would be very hard to defend. Spending 3 high 1sts on a dependent position like receiver is the definition of stupid. Especially for a guy who teams try to make be a qb to beat them. I'm not expecting the player to be drastically different (or really different at all). I'm just expecting them to throw the ball more because that's what Dennison's offenses do. At 35 attempts a game (which would rank 22nd) we should expect just over 240 yards a game and a 2.6:1 TD to INT ratio. I know that doesn't fit the narrative of "the QB sucks" but it's what it is based on the QB's career. They will be middle of the league in yards, top 10(ish) in TD passes and top 10 in fewest INTs with those numbers. This doesn't even factor in that he is the best running QB in the league. Get the man some help!! The more he throws, the more INTs that will happen. Remember when we got TO to join Evans for Trent? That solved everything!
JM2009 Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 Roman's offense has thrown it the least because they had AlexSmith, Kaepernick, and Tyrod who are all considered some of the worst passing qbs when they start. If Roman had Rodgers, he passes more. This reminds me of when people thought the OC was holding back Losman. The more they let Losman throw, the worse he looked. Tyrod has never been a good throwing qb, going back to college. I've supported Whaley but a wr in the top 10 would be very hard to defend. Spending 3 high 1sts on a dependent position like receiver is the definition of stupid. Especially for a guy who teams try to make be a qb to beat them. The more he throws, the more INTs that will happen. Remember when we got TO to join Evans for Trent? That solved everything! Without Watkins, this is the worst WR corp in the NFL. They need more talent. And how do you know he'll throw more picks? you don't.
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 Without Watkins, this is the worst WR corp in the NFL. They need more talent. And how do you know he'll throw more picks? you don't. I'm so sick of the Alex Smith not throwing INTs stat. Guess how you don't throw INTs? But not throwing over the middle and playing everything safe. Tyrod could be a better qb with more INTs. And switch Tom Brady and Tyrod. Who has the worst receivers in the NFL? You improve your qb, your receivers get better. Charles Clay had seasons of 700 and 600 yards with Ryan freakin' Tannehill. He hasn't cracked 600 yards here. Robert Woods had more yards receiving his first 2 years than his last two with Tyrod. Tyrod is an excellent running qb and takes care of the ball. But every receiver is going to suffer playing with him and in this offense.
JM2009 Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 I'm so sick of the Alex Smith not throwing INTs stat. Guess how you don't throw INTs? But not throwing over the middle and playing everything safe. Tyrod could be a better qb with more INTs. And switch Tom Brady and Tyrod. Who has the worst receivers in the NFL? You improve your qb, your receivers get better. Charles Clay had seasons of 700 and 600 yards with Ryan freakin' Tannehill. He hasn't cracked 600 yards here. Robert Woods had more yards receiving his first 2 years than his last two with Tyrod. Tyrod is an excellent running qb and takes care of the ball. But every receiver is going to suffer playing with him and in this offense. The Bills WR corp is bottom of the league right now. That does matter. Tom Bradys don't grow on trees. Sal MaioranaVerified account @salmaiorana 5h5 hours agoMore Should the #Bills pick a QB at No. 10 overall? I say no way. Here's my column kicking off draft week.... Joe B. @jbasile99c 4h4 hours agoMore Also totally agree. Tyrod isn't J Montana but no one out there in this draft will out-perform him anytime soon. Other needs 1st.
Kirby Jackson Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 I'm so sick of the Alex Smith not throwing INTs stat. Guess how you don't throw INTs? But not throwing over the middle and playing everything safe. Tyrod could be a better qb with more INTs. And switch Tom Brady and Tyrod. Who has the worst receivers in the NFL? You improve your qb, your receivers get better. Charles Clay had seasons of 700 and 600 yards with Ryan freakin' Tannehill. He hasn't cracked 600 yards here. Robert Woods had more yards receiving his first 2 years than his last two with Tyrod. Tyrod is an excellent running qb and takes care of the ball. But every receiver is going to suffer playing with him and in this offense. Woods had more yards early because Clay and Watkins weren't taking those touches. I too expect the INTs to go up some but not a lot. I used 10 as opposed to the 6 that it's been. His career INT percentage has been 1.6%. In my scenario (6 more pass attempts a game) he'd be at 1.8% (or 1 out of every 56 throws). The TD percentage is roughly 4.6% which would be better than last year but worse than 2015. With a healthy Watkins and another early receiver (Corey Davis) they won't make less plays. The offense has a chance to be great (which is why you consider a pass catcher early).
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 (edited) Woods had more yards early because Clay and Watkins weren't taking those touches. I too expect the INTs to go up some but not a lot. I used 10 as opposed to the 6 that it's been. His career INT percentage has been 1.6%. In my scenario (6 more pass attempts a game) he'd be at 1.8% (or 1 out of every 56 throws). The TD percentage is roughly 4.6% which would be better than last year but worse than 2015. With a healthy Watkins and another early receiver (Corey Davis) they won't make less plays. The offense has a chance to be great (which is why you consider a pass catcher early). Again, I respect your opinion but I just don't see Tyrod ever being a good enough passer to be great. I'd love to be wrong but the fact that he looked just as bad throwing over the middle last year just makes it hard to see. Again, I like Davis and Williams but the fact that best example of a team spending that much in the draft on WRs is the Falcons who spent a 6th and 27th pick on Jones and White while getting Ryan #2 seems nuts that the Bills could spend a 4th and 10th with Tyrod. This just seems like awful roster building that good GMs would just laugh at. No NFL team should put this much emphasis on WRs to prop up a subpar qb. Also, how much better was the Cowboys' receivers when Dez was out? A 4th round rookie looked more comfortable throwing the ball than Tyrod. Edited April 23, 2017 by C.Biscuit97
Kirby Jackson Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 (edited) Again, I respect your opinion but I just don't see Tyrod ever being a good enough passer to be great. I'd love to be wrong but the fact that he looked just as bad throwing over the middle last year just makes it hard to see. Again, I like Davis and Williams but the fact that best example of a team spending that much in the draft on WRs is the Falcons who spent a 6th and 27th pick on Jones and White while getting Ryan #2 seems nuts that the Bills could spend a 4th and 10th with Tyrod. This just seems like awful roster building that good GMs would just laugh at. No NFL team should put this much emphasis on WRs to prop up a subpar qb. I'm just using his career numbers. I'm not acting as if he improving. If you take 6.9 YPA (less than his career average) and add 6 attempts a game (what Dennison did last year) that is what it translates to. We convinced ourselves that the passing game was bad because we didn't throw the ball. On a per attempt basis they are in the middle of the league with an elite TD to INT ratio. I just don't believe (and not sure why anyone would) that 6 more attempts a game will make Tyrod a different player? The Denver offense was based around Thomas and Sanders. The Bills are going to throw the ball more because no one throws less than Roman. Their #1 WR has been injured and the rest of the group has been turned over. The Bills are going to add a pass catcher early. It doesn't sound like it is going to be Williams. Edited April 23, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 I'm just using his career numbers. I'm not acting as if he improving. If you take 6.9 YPA (less than his career average) and add 6 attempts a game (what Dennison did last year) that is what it translates to. We convinced ourselves that the passing game was bad because we didn't throw the ball. On a per attempt basis they are in the middle of the league with an elite TD to INT ratio. I just don't believe (and not sure why anyone would) that 6 more attempts a game will make Tyrod a different player? The Denver offense was based around Thomas and Sanders. The Bills are going to throw the ball more because no one throws less than Roman. Their #1 WR has been injured and the rest of the group has been turned over. The Bills are going to add a pass catcher early. It doesn't sound like it is going to be Williams. I think Roman is taking a lot of crap because he was forced to hide poor passing qbs. https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-yards-after-catch-statistics/2016/ We were dead last inYAC. The 49ers weren't much better. Inaccurate qbs hurt the rhythm of the offense and the amount of yards your playmakers make after the catch.
Kirby Jackson Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 I think Roman is taking a lot of crap because he was forced to hide poor passing qbs. https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-yards-after-catch-statistics/2016/ We were dead last inYAC. The 49ers weren't much better. Inaccurate qbs hurt the rhythm of the offense and the amount of yards your playmakers make after the catch. ...or your playmakers weren't good. Roman hasn't "hid" anything. The offense worked. They were top 10 DVOA in each of he last 2 years. They were 7th in scoring through 16 weeks before EJ got on the field (still finished top 10). Roman ran an offense that was well designed for his personnel. Dennison's offense is going to be different. We shouldn't expect the players to be different just the opportunity.
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 ...or your playmakers weren't good. Roman hasn't "hid" anything. The offense worked. They were top 10 DVOA in each of he last 2 years. They were 7th in scoring through 16 weeks before EJ got on the field (still finished top 10). Roman ran an offense that was well designed for his personnel. Dennison's offense is going to be different. We shouldn't expect the players to be different just the opportunity. They were dead last in 2015. They were 10th in 2014. Is there an elite playmaker I am forgetting about in 2014? Take a look at Clay's YAC. http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/charles-clay-player-stats He has almost half as less this year than he did 3 years ago in Miami. Robert woods had 215 YAC in 2014. He has had about 130 the last couple of years. http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/robert-woods-player-stats That is a result of inaccurate passes.
Kirby Jackson Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 They were dead last in 2015. They were 10th in 2014. Is there an elite playmaker I am forgetting about in 2014? Take a look at Clay's YAC. http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/charles-clay-player-stats He has almost half as less this year than he did 3 years ago in Miami. Robert woods had 215 YAC in 2014. He has had about 130 the last couple of years. http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/robert-woods-player-stats That is a result of inaccurate passes. Watkins?
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 (edited) Watkins?You're my boy Kirby, so I hate to do it to you but since you asked: http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/sammy-watkins-player-stats Watkins YAC: 2014 - 349 2015 - 167 2016 - 35 Inaccuracy kills your playmakers ability to make big plays. Brady rarely throws the ball deep but he reads a defense, sees a matchup, & gets it out accurate to his guys to run. Fun fact, your boy Chris Hogan had more YAC this year than Sammy Watkins has had in his last 2 years. That's embarrassing. Edited April 23, 2017 by C.Biscuit97
Kirby Jackson Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 (edited) You're my boy Kirby, so I hate to do it to you but since you asked: http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/sammy-watkins-player-stats Watkins YAC: 2014 - 349 2015 - 167 2016 - 35 Inaccuracy kills your playmakers ability to make big plays. Brady rarely throws the ball deep but he reads a defense, sees a matchup, & gets it out accurate to his guys to run. Fun fact, your boy Chris Hogan had more YAC this year than Sammy Watkins has had in his last 2 years. That's embarrassing. That hurts It doesn't however change the fact that lousy playmakers play a role in YAC as well. It also is a big reason to consider Davis. He excels after the catch. Edited April 23, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 That hurts It doesn't however change the fact that lousy playmakers play a role in YAC as well. It also is a big reason to consider Davis. He excels after the catch. Sorry buddy. Is Davis any better than Watkins after the catch? Of course not. Watkins was one of the best YAC college WRs I have ever seen. Draft multiple WRs in the draft in later rounds. But to spend another top 10 pick on hoping Tyrod will become something he isn't is a bad move and would be another reason we miss the playoffs 17 years in a row.
John from Riverside Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 You're my boy Kirby, so I hate to do it to you but since you asked: http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/sammy-watkins-player-stats Watkins YAC: 2014 - 349 2015 - 167 2016 - 35 Inaccuracy kills your playmakers ability to make big plays. Brady rarely throws the ball deep but he reads a defense, sees a matchup, & gets it out accurate to his guys to run. Fun fact, your boy Chris Hogan had more YAC this year than Sammy Watkins has had in his last 2 years. That's embarrassing. Fun fact....Tom Brady was throwing him passes Fun fact....Tom Brady is not in this draft class Fun fact....Tom Brady is not available in free agency Fun fact....Tom Brady is a first ballot HOF'r Fun fact.....we dont have him soooooooooo
Kirby Jackson Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 Sorry buddy. Is Davis any better than Watkins after the catch? Of course not. Watkins was one of the best YAC college WRs I have ever seen. Draft multiple WRs in the draft in later rounds. But to spend another top 10 pick on hoping Tyrod will become something he isn't is a bad move and would be another reason we miss the playoffs 17 years in a row. I don't think Davis is better after the catch than Watkins but same league. That's his game. I'd put the odds above 50% that he's the pick. I don't see Thomas being on the board and I don't see a trade down partner.
Augie Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 Fun fact....Tom Brady was throwing him passes Fun fact....Tom Brady is not in this draft class Fun fact....Tom Brady is not available in free agency Fun fact....Tom Brady is a first ballot HOF'r Fun fact.....we dont have him soooooooooo I did not find that to be fun at all. I like Sammy and want to see what he can do when fully healthy with decent QB play, BUT did it not seem last year that he looked to slide or get out of bounds as soon as he caught the ball? That did bother me, and it wasn't always a poorly thrown ball. But 35 yards is still shocking to me.
BuffaloFan68 Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 I'd really like to get Williams in the first & then a QB in the 2nd unless Adams falls to us. Go Bills!!!!!
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 23, 2017 Posted April 23, 2017 Fun fact....Tom Brady was throwing him passes Fun fact....Tom Brady is not in this draft class Fun fact....Tom Brady is not available in free agency Fun fact....Tom Brady is a first ballot HOF'r Fun fact.....we dont have him soooooooooo I'm not shocked you would defend this, but Again, Chris Hogan had more YACs in one season than Sammy Freakin' Watkins. Here's another example. Jordan Mathews, who is a #2 at best, had 256 YACs from a rookie qb who was hardly a star. http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/jordan-matthews-player-stats
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