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Pats sign Gillislee to offer sheet

johnwalter

By johnwalter
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the bills will be relying heavily on the run this year.

 

they HAVE to sign him.

 

i mean i know they hit on RBs in the draft, the majority of times, but we could actually keep a draft rb free for once

I really doubt they will. And it's probably the smart move.

 

Always some risk, but he's a little too expensive.

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Ittakestime RFA

Ittakestime

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how often did he play with the starters in the regular season?

 

Exactly correct.

 

20 of his 27 attempts came in the 4th quarter. 20 of his 27 attempts came when the margin of victory was 15+ points.

 

He ran in blow outs.

 

Here is one play he played with the starters where he did well:

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34-78-83 Veteran

34-78-83

Posted
Posted

 

 

 

 

LAST year Shady was 400 yards away....2016.

 

That's still far short.....but his prediction was 2,000 yards for the 2015 season.

 

So as I said....Deranged Greggo was 800+ yards off the mark.

 

It was an ignorant, analysis-free prediction......Shady had 300 carries BUT was also coming off leading the NFL in fewest yards per touch in 2014.......and the only season in his career when Shady reached 2,000 yards was the aberration year of 2013 when he had nearly 400 touches in the Chip Kelly offense that was running like 90 offensive play per game and caught the league totally off guard(see Nick Foles season).

 

It's possible that 2013 year was his "break" year.......that season where a back gets too many touches and thereafter is never as productive again with a similar workload.

 

The Bills got more out of Shady by using him less last season..........he's not even close to the $ value per carry they thought they were getting.......but with less carries in 2016 in MORE healthy/available games than 2015 and the subsequently better per-play production.....is an indicator of what I am talking about.

 

Factoring in another year closer for McCoy to the RB cliff........I would suggest that EVEN LESS carries this year would be a good idea if the plan is to keep getting high per-play production for another year.

 

And that being the case.........Mike Gillislee would probably be even more valuable this year.

 

Example: The Bills were for the most part very efficient on the ground in 2016.......but replace Shady's carries in Miami (when he tried to play thru a recurrence of his hammy injury) with MG and MG is a 115 carry back.......and Shady is just a 190 carry back.......and both of their numbers are better....and the Bills probably WIN that crucial game.

 

Times have changed in the NFL.....it doesn't make sense to just keep pounding your veteran lead back hoping he ends up with decent numbers on a high volume of carries.

 

When you are bringing a knife to a gun-fight by trying to outscore teams with your ground game against their pass game........you need to be as efficient with that blade as possible.

Ah ok you didn't need to put the rest in the post responding to me but its all good. I thought you all were talking 2016.
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YoloinOhio Hall of Famer

YoloinOhio

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the bills will be relying heavily on the run this year.

 

they HAVE to sign him.

 

i mean i know they hit on RBs in the draft, the majority of times, but we could actually keep a draft rb free for once

why would you not want one of the RBs in this draft?
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PolishDave Veteran

PolishDave

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If he's so utterly replaceable then losing him to the pats at that cost is a great win...

 

I don't think he's a great player but I do think I'd rather have the relatively sure thing than the shot in the dark in the 5th round.

 

You know....

 

In all honesty I think it really is....

 

Not a GREAT win, but yes, a win nonetheless.

 

Chalk a small win up for the Bills. It might be the only win we get against the Patriots this year. bah dump dum.

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NewEra Hall of Famer

NewEra

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Posted (edited)

 

 

1) Between home games featuring a veteran laden Bills team against young teams in the first half......as well as weak-to-middling road opponents.........I see 9 VERY WINNABLE games before the Bills play the Pats the first time.

 

If they are 7-4 before the Pats game.....they got a real chance to sneak in.

 

And that first game is at home.......the beginning of a 3 game homestand.....if there is a winnable one against a healthy Pats team it's probably that one.

 

Additionally, the Pats balls-out style has lead to a lot of late seasons where they are pretty banged up down the stretch........ so playing them later is likely a statistical plus.

 

AND......there is always that chance that the Patriots have homefield tied up going into the second to last game of the year in NE and you get a break.

 

Losses to the Pats are demoralizing......they are clearly the measuring stick for the Bills......so the timing of the schedule for this veteran team is absolutely BUENO.

 

2) RB's are a dime-a-dozen in general.........but this team is ALL-IN on running the football.......as evidenced by the investment in another FB......and Shady is reaching a point where it could end fast and you can't just assume it won't.

 

Ask the Minnesota Vikings......one minute they were all about pounding the rock and had the best back in football who was showing no end in sight......so they slept on the RB position for a few years.........and then he gets hurt and his two replacements averaged 3.4 ypc on nearly 300 carries. That is not a typo.....that really happened.

 

The best thing to do IMO is have a committee of decent backs......that is what they should have done from the outset with Roman........but the Bills went the Minnesota Vikings direction.....they shot their playmaker wad of $ on the RB position....they NEED that position to score the majority of their TD's and control the game.

 

To put MG's "backup" contribution in further perspective.......he had about 30 less yards as a reserve RB than the Bills leading yardage producing WR.....Bob Woods.........and 8 TD's to a measly 1 for Woods.

 

"Backup" just doesn't quite do his contribution justice.

 

They *might* be able to replace his production with a 5th round pick.........but they might end up like the 2016 Minnesota Vikings if the 29 year old Shady goes down too.

 

3) I will be GLAD if they match the offer so that they don't compound their initial error.

 

The value of a 5th round pick is not very much......it's a jip to say the least for what MG has proven he can do..........they should have no problem acquiring an additional one with a modest trade on draft day if so inclined...... just trade back a couple spots in round 2 or deal in other rounds. The dealing might not be as easy this year but there are a lot of teams with a lot of extra picks and they won't all have room for that many new faces on their roster so trades will be made for some of those comp picks etc..

Fair assessment. I'm too tired for a full reply, long day at work.

 

I'll just say this. I love Gillislee. When he gets the ball I get excited. I hope we match. That being said, I also believe that the FO has a plan. What that plan may be, I don't know, but I trust that they have a plan and will fill the hole properly. They haven't had a good track record with qbs and head coaches, but I think the FO has shown they have have the ability to spot talent and build a playoff caliber football team. If we lose gillislee, it isn't the end of the world and it won't be known if the FO made a mistake or made the right choice til after the season or even in a couple years based on how that 5th rd pick pans out.

 

For the record, I said Gillislee was our #2 rb, not a "backup".

 

I'm just not a fan of talking in absolutes. No one knows how this will turn out. We'll just have to wait and see.

Edited by NewEra
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Coach Tuesday Hall of Famer

Coach Tuesday

Posted
Posted

That being said, I also believe that the FO has a plan. What that plan may be, I don't know, but I trust that they have a plan and will fill the hole properly. They haven't had a good track record with qbs and head coaches, but I think the FO has shown they have have the ability to spot talent and build a playoff caliber football team. If we lose gillislee, it isn't the end of the world and it won't be known if the FO made a mistake or made the right choice til after the season or even in a couple years based on how that 5th rd pick pans out.

 

This is where you and I differ. I do not believe that the Bills' front office has a plan of any kind.

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Pbomb RFA

Pbomb

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Posted

This is where you and I differ. I do not believe that the Bills' front office has a plan of any kind.

whether the plan works or not is up for debate but to say they dont have a plan is ridiculous. So they just show up to work and take wild guesses at things and make random moves?
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eball Hall of Famer

eball

Posted
Posted

 

 

 

2) RB's are a dime-a-dozen in general.........but this team is ALL-IN on running the football.......as evidenced by the investment in another FB......and Shady is reaching a point where it could end fast and you can't just assume it won't.

 

Ask the Minnesota Vikings......one minute they were all about pounding the rock and had the best back in football who was showing no end in sight......so they slept on the RB position for a few years.........and then he gets hurt and his two replacements averaged 3.4 ypc on nearly 300 carries. That is not a typo.....that really happened.

 

The best thing to do IMO is have a committee of decent backs......that is what they should have done from the outset with Roman........but the Bills went the Minnesota Vikings direction.....they shot their playmaker wad of $ on the RB position....they NEED that position to score the majority of their TD's and control the game.

 

To put MG's "backup" contribution in further perspective.......he had about 30 less yards as a reserve RB than the Bills leading yardage producing WR.....Bob Woods.........and 8 TD's to a measly 1 for Woods.

 

"Backup" just doesn't quite do his contribution justice.

 

They *might* be able to replace his production with a 5th round pick.........but they might end up like the 2016 Minnesota Vikings if the 29 year old Shady goes down too.

 

 

 

How would you compare the Vikings OL and running scheme to the Bills? I think that plays into the discussion, because my initial thoughts (with absolutely no research) are that the Vikings' backups would have probably had much more success behind Buffalo's OL.

 

Bottom line -- I think this MG offer sheet is getting way more attention than it rightfully deserves. You are still clinging to your predictions of a Shady downfall rather than giving any credence to the suggestion that the Bills simply don't believe MG is worth more than the tender they placed upon him.

 

It seems that to some there are only two answers -- either the Bills have no idea what they're doing (5th round tender on an uber-important RB), or MG is a dime-a-dozen RB and who cares if he leaves. The truth is likely somewhere towards the middle, but I'm guessing the Bills don't believe MG is a key to the season.

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