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Recent draft history shows 1st rd QBs more likely to fail


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If after extensive scouting a team thinks a QB is worth a first round pick then they should draft the guy in round 1. If not, they shouldn't. It should be the same mentality with Qbs as with other positions. Use a round 1 pick on a guy you believe merits a round 1 pick, and if you think the guy is elite, then move up if you need to and take him.

 

That's what Whaley did with Sammy. Many criticize that move, but at the time Sammy was considered by many to be the top pick, and Whaley saw an elite guy and went after him. His injuries have obviously affected that, but if you see a guy you think as truly elite, then you move up. And if you're wrong you face he criticism. If you don't see that elite quality, or you grade a guy as less than a round 1 pick, then it's folly to throw away picks to move up or waste a first round pick on a QB just because that's the position he plays.

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So let's not try and live with mediocrity.

You have to be in it to win it. Best prospects of the class have better odds to be great or at least be a backup. Taking late round projects is just throwing crap at the wall and hope it sticks. Reminds me of the late round Brown pick who is out of the league, couldn't even become a backup.

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there are also teams on that list who guessed right and made it to Super Bowls because of it

Right on.

QB driven league if you don't have a franchise worthy QB your just wishing on one mircle season from a guy not good enough. Have to build around a QB not the other way around it's why this team is still spinning it's wheels and swapping staffs at a alarming rate. Begins and ends with QB.

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I CANNOT understate just how much I agree with this sentiment. Good to great QBs in recent memory that have not been Drafted in the 1st round: Dak, Wilson, Dalton, Brees, Romo, Brady, Carr (yes it was top 2nd, but still a 2nd), Cousins....I think what it shows is that good to great QBs can be found and maybe even, are better found in the 2nd Round and sometimes 3rd. I think the Bills need to tread carefully and examine what skills / mental acumen / leadership translates to the NFL level and go with it....

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Most qbs drafted will fail. It's laughable how people try to pretend like they know anything about scouting qbs.

 

That said and I know everyone hates him, but a guy like EJ might have had a better chance if he went later in the draft to a better team. One of the best things that happened to Tyrod is getting drafted in the 6th and playing for Baltimore. A lot less pressure to develop.

 

But the main problem with the Bills is they have no plan. Once they played EJ, he should have gotten 2 years to play through the struggles. If they draft a guy and don't want him to play right away, then let him sit. It's why now is the perfect time to draft a qb. No pressure to play right away.

 

Yes a big issue is that drafting a QB early means that there is pressure to push them into the lineup early and push them off the team when they fail.

 

If Tyrod had been an early round pick he'd probably have never been able to stick in Baltimore long enough to develop into the productive NFL QB that he is now.

 

Low expectations made his progress FEEL like progress.

 

EJ is an extremely slow developer........but he has talent and a good temperament. When they drafted him I thought he would take a LONG time to develop but it was worth a shot.

 

To me a first round pick used on a QB that you feel has great potential is always a pick well spent........but you have to keep expectations in check. Where they were picked really should mean nothing once they are in the building.

 

I disagree about leaving him in there to fail though.......they shouldn't have started him in the first place........the whole deal with cutting Fitz/drafting EJ/signing Kolb/cutting TJax was a sham setup designed to get a rookie QB in the lineup early and he just wasn't ready.

 

I think if given a few more years he could turn into what Todd Collins was at the end of his career with Washington/KC. I thought his ceiling was like a Phil Simms.......more intangible value than tangible.......but not for lack of talent.

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Only one QB worth drafting in this class and that's Mahomes. He is the best player in this draft. He is a game changer and the next Rogers. Who ever gets this guy the fortunes of there franchise are about to change.

Edited by billsareback
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Only one QB worth drafting in this class and that's Mahomes. He is the best player in this draft. He is a game changer and the next Rogers. Who gets this guy the fortunes of the franchise is about to change.

I'm with you my friend. Unfortunately, Bills don't put a lot of thought, time, or resources into the QB position.

 

John Murphy trying to sell the don't even try to draft a QB strategy today.

 

They're getting the fans in the right mindset to accept mediocrity.

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John Murphy can kiss my Azz. He is a loser shill, I wish he would go away he's bad luck. Time to draft Mahomes and let's start winning with a game changing QB. Who ever gets him is going to be one lucky team.

Edited by billsareback
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Yes a big issue is that drafting a QB early means that there is pressure to push them into the lineup early and push them off the team when they fail.

 

If Tyrod had been an early round pick he'd probably have never been able to stick in Baltimore long enough to develop into the productive NFL QB that he is now.

 

Low expectations made his progress FEEL like progress.

 

EJ is an extremely slow developer........but he has talent and a good temperament. When they drafted him I thought he would take a LONG time to develop but it was worth a shot.

 

To me a first round pick used on a QB that you feel has great potential is always a pick well spent........but you have to keep expectations in check. Where they were picked really should mean nothing once they are in the building.

 

I disagree about leaving him in there to fail though.......they shouldn't have started him in the first place........the whole deal with cutting Fitz/drafting EJ/signing Kolb/cutting TJax was a sham setup designed to get a rookie QB in the lineup early and he just wasn't ready.

 

I think if given a few more years he could turn into what Todd Collins was at the end of his career with Washington/KC. I thought his ceiling was like a Phil Simms.......more intangible value than tangible.......but not for lack of talent.

Good post and I agree with it.

 

Biggest problem with the Bills is they never had a plan. Whaley wanted one thing, Marrone wanted another. He won't have become Carr but EJ & him had very similar production through 10 games. Carr got to keep playing and progressively got better.

 

Funny, that the Raiders are the team that signed EJ. It's also funny the Raiders' GM had a worse record than Whaley but now that Carr is good, he's a good GM.

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Ok so let's just draft a corner back and miss the playoffs again. Grow a pair and man up. We need a QB, Nuff said

 

If you analyse the success/failure of players taken in the first round by position, most players taken using this metric have failed.

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