Source: Bills Still Deciding on Watkins' 5th Year Option

[Buffalo86]

On a per game or per target basis you would be for sure. If you want to take cumulative, you still may be wrong. Everyone knows that cumulative stats though aren't a very good indicator. If my team throws 65 times a game and the QB averages 300 yards a game my team (and QB) aren't very good. You would say, but he had 4,800 yards and I would say he had 3.4 yards per attempt!! That is why anyaltics and advanced statistics have taken over. They normalize the stats so that we can accurately compare. When that happens Sammy is borderline top 5 and definitely top 10.

 

He does need to stay healthy. Playing 12 1/3 games a year isn't ideal. The Bills also need to throw him the ball more than 6.5 times a game. Julio is getting 11 targets and Brown 11.2. Is there any reason, especially with the quality of pass catchers on this roster, that he doesn't get 10 targets a game? If he did his production would be right there with the best in the game.

IF he could stay healthy & IF the Bills were intent on throwing him the ball 10+ times per game, he could be worth it. IMO, we haven't seen enough evidence of either of these.

[Kirby Jackson]

IF he could stay healthy & IF the Bills were intent on throwing him the ball 10+ times per game, he could be worth it. IMO, we haven't seen enough evidence of either of these.

That is more than fair. The problem is that you have until May 2nd to decide. They will exercise it but he does need to get healthy and they do need to use him.

[Buffalo86]

We will just agree to disagree that he's not worth the money. He's 23 and has shown elite ability when healthy, played through injury, not gotten in trouble, and is going to be very difficult to replace. #1 WRs make a lot of money. It's the NFL.

Fair enough. I'm not saying he's dead to me; I just haven't seen enough from him yet.

[YoloinOhio]

I don't remember similar discussion over Gilmore's option a couple years ago and pretty sure he missed more games than Sammy with injury. No one batted an eye with that one.

Edited April 14, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[BarleyNY]

I don't remember similar discussion over Gilmore's option and pretty sure he missed more games than Sammy with injury. No one batted an eye with that one.

To be fair, there's really not much dissent here. "No" votes are under 12%.

[YoloinOhio]

To be fair, there's really not much dissent here. "No" votes are under 12%.

I see that, but referring to those who are against it. Don't recall it ever even coming up as an issue with Gilmore.

[Kirby Jackson]

I don't remember similar discussion over Gilmore's option last year and pretty sure he missed more games than Sammy with injury. No one batted an eye with that one.

...and with all due respect to Gilmore he is a really good player. Sammy CAN BE one of the best players in the league. If you called BB right now and said "we will give you Watkins for Gilmore" the trade paperwork would be on your desk before you hung up the phone.

[thebandit27]

I'm more interested in why he has continued to get less targets than many #1 receivers in the league.

 

Yes, you can blame the coaching staff, the offensive scheme, Tyrod's ability, his injury struggles, I get that, but at some point, you have to consider that Sammy may not be all he's cracked up to be when it comes to route running, separation, rapport with his QB, etc. etc. If he was really burning corners left and right and streaking down the field wide open, he'd have all the targets he'd need to be elite.

 

Like I said, it's been a combination of factors, but by far the greatest contributor is the fact that the Bills simply don't throw the ball much. Dead last in the NFL in attempts for 2 consecutive years.

 

Let's face it: that he tore the league up, down, and sideways during the final 9 games of 2015 is evidence that he can produce at an elite level when given the targets (and he was the 4th-most targeted WR in the NFL over that 9-game stretch).

[BarleyNY]

I see that, but referring to those who are against it. Don't recall it ever even coming up as an issue with Gilmore.

Don't forget that the troll factor is present here and would've been there too. That doesn't account for the whole 12%, but it's part of it.

Edited April 14, 2017 by BarleyNY

[TheElectricCompany]

 

Like I said, it's been a combination of factors, but by far the greatest contributor is the fact that the Bills simply don't throw the ball much. Dead last in the NFL in attempts for 2 consecutive years.

 

Let's face it: that he tore the league up, down, and sideways during the final 9 games of 2015 is evidence that he can produce at an elite level when given the targets (and he was the 4th-most targeted WR in the NFL over that 9-game stretch).

It shouldn't be surprising we are low on attempts, our running game is the best in the league by a wide margin and we shouldn't get away from that. However, this should setup a strong play action game and leave Sammy with lots of favorable matchups deep downfield, which is one of the reasons I think he has a high YPC number. I just don't think that 9 game run means as much as you. He's a good receiver, but greatness is being good consistently, and that's really the only barrier stopping him from entering the elite conversation (although, it's a big barrier). He has flashed talent, but the league is full of guys who have flashed talent and never put it together of an extended period of time.

Edited April 14, 2017 by TheElectricCompany

[YoloinOhio]

Don't forget that the troll factor is present here and would've been there too. That doesn't account for the whole 12%, but it's part of it.

true, and I have a feeling some didn't read the article. Sal said HE believes it will be picked up, but the source said it hadn't been decided. For one, it could have been decided and the source didn't want to leak anything before the org was ready to announce. Also, only one team has publically decided so far and that's LA Rams. Edited April 14, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[thebandit27]

It shouldn't be surprising we are low on attempts, our running game is the best in the league by a wide margin and we shouldn't get away from that. However, this should setup a strong play action game and leave Sammy with lots of favorable matchups deep downfield, which is one of the reasons I think he has a high YPC number. I just don't think that 9 game run means as much as you. He's a good receiver, but greatness is just being good consistently, and that's really the only barrier stopping him. He has flashed talent, but the league is full of guys who have flashed talent and never put it together of an extended period of time.

 

It's not surprising.

 

The only thing we differ on is that I believe that he has been good consistently, and I place a much greater portion of the responsibility for his lack of usage on the play-calling (for better or worse).

[BuffaloHokie13]

Okay, so out of curiosity I did some research. Here are the stats for the top 2 receivers every year in the Kubiak/Dennison offense since 2010:

 

2010 Houston Texans:

Andre Johnson - 86 Catches, 138 Targets, 1216 Yards, 8 TD

Kevin Walter - 51 Catches, 80 Targets, 621 Yards, 5 TD

 

2011 Houston Texans (An outlier, for certain):

Owen Daniels - 54 Catches, 84 Targets, 677 Yards, 3 TD

Arian Foster - 53 Catches, 71 Targets, 617 Yards, 2 TD

 

2012 Houston Texans:

Andre Johnson - 112 Catches, 164 Targets, 1598 Yards, 4 TD

Owen Daniels - 62 Catches, 103 Targets, 716 Yards, 6 TD

 

2013 Houston Texans:

Andre Johnson - 109 Catches, 181 Targets, 1407 Yards, 5 TD

Deandre Hopkins - 52 Catches, 93 Targets, 802 Yards, 2 TD

 

2014 Baltimore Ravens:

Steve Smith - 79 Catches, 133 Targets, 1065 Yards, 6 TD

Torrey Smith - 49 Catches, 93 Targets, 767 Yards, 11 TD

 

2015 Denver Broncos:

Demaryius Thomas - 105 Catches, 176 Targets, 1304 Yards, 6 TD

Emmanuel Sanders - 76 Catches, 137 Targets, 1135 Yards, 6 TD

 

2016 Denver Broncos:

Demaryius Thomas - 90 Catches, 145 Targets, 1083 Yards, 5 TD

Emmanuel Sanders - 79 Catches, 139 Targets, 1032 Yards, 5 TD

 

Based on that, I think it's reasonable to expect a healthy Sammy to see 140-160 Targets with #2 (Clay maybe?) seeing another 90-105 Targets. Also, considering only 1 receiver on that list eclipsed 10 TDs I probably wouldn't expect a 10 TD Season out of Sammy.

[Pbomb]

We are discussing if he is a top tier receiver in today's NFL, not how he compared to past Bills. Through his career, he has not put together numbers that place him in the top 10 of receivers (I'd argue top 15).

 

although through their first 3 years his numbers are very similar to julio, antonio, and demaryius. But hey lets just get rid of him then we can need a number 1 and 2 wr

[klos63]

Yeah, this conversation is really stupid. The Bills can't be that dumb. Pick up the option and thrown him the football more than 6.5 times a game.

Agreed, just because the team hasn't officially decided, I'm sure there is no doubt they will pick up his option. He will be great for years to come.

[TheElectricCompany]

although through their first 3 years his numbers are very similar to julio, antonio, and demaryius. But hey lets just get rid of him then we can need a number 1 and 2 wr

Were Julio, Antonio and DT considered elite after year 3? I'd strongly argue no.

Please look at my posts. I said multiple times we should keep Sammy.

[Beef Jerky]

The Bills are deciding they just haven't done it yet.

[mannc]

Watkins has been somewhat of a disappointment so far, but only because the expectations were so high and because of the astounding success of that year's WR class as a whole. When he's on the field, he is a matchup problem who opens up the entire offense. There is no question the Bills will pick up his 5th year option and will probably end up franchising him in year 6.

[Bill_with_it]

Good luck getting that through the NFLPA. The second the tender is signed it is guaranteed unless an injury occurs outside the scope of his job. I suppose if he blows off his hand that summer in a 4th of July incident you may be able to recover the money. It doesn't work for a lingering foot injury that you are well aware of: http://www.thefootballeducator.com/nfl-cba-article-10-franchise-transition-players/

 

© If a player subject to a Franchise Player designation accepts the Required Tender, the resulting Player Contract shall be fully guaranteed if the players contract is terminated because of lack of comparative skill; as a result of an injury sustained in the performance of his services under his Player Contract; and/or due to a Clubs determination to create Room for Salary Cap purposes. For purposes of this Subsection only, any contract termination due to the failure of the player to establish or maintain his excellent physical condition will be subject to review of a neutral physician appointed by the parties, whose physical findings will be conclusive in any arbitration proceeding relating to the physical condition of the player at the time of the exam, provided that such exam takes place within twenty (20) days of the contract termination.

 

If you want to use rules to call someone out at least read them first.

Did you read what you copied and pasted? It means his pay isnt guaranteed he has to go to arbitration if the club deems not to pay him beaciase of injury= not guaranteed.

 

Sigh...I thought, up until this post, we actually found a subject you could argue without going off the deep end...apparently I was wrong.

 

You need to read the CBA, because there's a LOT more to what you're saying than the team simply deeming him unfit...which is why in the long history of the tag, we can't readily recall any team attempting to do that. Do you honestly believe that's a realistic possibility?

 

As to Gilislee, that's an absurd comparison. Gilly averaged 6.7 attempts per game--nowhere near enough to project what he could do if given a full workload over the course of a season. You also need to look at efficiency in context: he ranked 40th in carries, and 29th in yards. That's good, but not a major statistical outlier.

 

Watkins, by contrast, ranked 47th in targets in 2015, yet he finished 22nd in yards and tied for 14th in TDs. That's absolutely ridiculous. For comparison's sake, the guys that finished ahead of him in yards and had at least as many TDs are as follows:

 

Doug Baldwin - 104 targets

Brandin Cooks - 129 targets

AJ Green - 132 targets

Allen Robinson - 153 targets

Odell Beckham - 159 targets

Brandon Marshall - 174 targets

DeAndre Hopkins - 192 targets

Antonio Brown - 195 targets

Julio Jones - 204 targets

 

Sammy had 95 targets--95.

 

Go back and read the links I posted--context. It matters.

 

 

No, it's not new, and it's not all-encompassing. It is, however, very handy in showing how efficient guys are when they're given opportunities.

 

 

Absolutely--he's been poorly utilized (with the exception of the final 10 games of 2015)

No matter what you do to try to muddy the watters his pay isnt guaranteed against injury if we franchise him and yards per target is not a meteic that any rational evaluator would ise to determine a wrs starus as elite. Point still stands TD mike has higg yards per carry are you going to pay him top hb money? No that would be silly because he hasnt shown a propensity to perform at that level in any sustained manner.

True, but paying top 10 money to a WR who hasn't peformed to that standard isn't exactly a solid team building move. If you look at the guys who are up for FA in 2018, you'll have a really hard time finding someone who'd be worthy of tag consideration:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/

Paying top ten money to a wr who hasnt shown he is top ten would be another cap crushing mistake.

[Kirby Jackson]

Did you read what you copied and pasted? It means his pay isnt guaranteed he has to go to arbitration if the club deems not to pay him beaciase of injury= not guaranteed.

...unless the injury is within the scope of his job. Please read it again. Watkins injury clearly is within the scope of his job, hence it is guaranteed.

 

If a player subject to a Franchise Player designation accepts the Required Tender, the resulting Player Contract shall be fully guaranteed if the players contract is terminated because of lack of comparative skill; as a result of an injury sustained in the performance of his services under his Player Contract; and/or due to a Clubs determination to create Room for Salary Cap purposes.

Edited April 14, 2017 by Kirby Jackson