Source: Bills Still Deciding on Watkins' 5th Year Option

[oldmanfan]

Agreed see if he can manage some semblence of a complete season before committing 13 mil to him. If he can manage a complete season franchise him and negotiate a full contract before the franchise tag kicks in. Its pretty simple, keep emotions out and let a good buisness decision prevail.

Quite reasonable.

[Kirby Jackson]

Stop spreading rampant wrong information

No the franchise tag isnt fully guaranteed:

5. Franchise tender is guaranteed, with one exception.

 

Once a player signs the franchise tag, the one-year salary becomes fully guaranteed. But theres a little-known exception.

 

Under Article 10, Section 2© of the CBA, the contract can be terminated if the player fails to establish or maintain his excellent physical condition.

TD mike is picking up a ton of yards per carry are we gonna sign him to what would almost equate to top ten pay because he is geeting hefty yards per touch? No that's ludicrous as is the notion to put Watkins in the same stratosphere as elite wrs.

Good luck getting that through the NFLPA. The second the tender is signed it is guaranteed unless an injury occurs outside the scope of his job. I suppose if he blows off his hand that summer in a 4th of July incident you may be able to recover the money. It doesn't work for a lingering foot injury that you are well aware of: http://www.thefootballeducator.com/nfl-cba-article-10-franchise-transition-players/

 

© If a player subject to a Franchise Player designation accepts the Required Tender, the resulting Player Contract shall be fully guaranteed if the players contract is terminated because of lack of comparative skill; as a result of an injury sustained in the performance of his services under his Player Contract; and/or due to a Clubs determination to create Room for Salary Cap purposes. For purposes of this Subsection only, any contract termination due to the failure of the player to establish or maintain his excellent physical condition will be subject to review of a neutral physician appointed by the parties, whose physical findings will be conclusive in any arbitration proceeding relating to the physical condition of the player at the time of the exam, provided that such exam takes place within twenty (20) days of the contract termination.

 

If you want to use rules to call someone out at least read them first.

Edited April 14, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[PromoTheRobot]

He was thought of as the top WR prospect in a multi year span. He has been dynamic when healthy (highest yards per target). He has the respect of coaches and personnel people all over the league. He is a no doubt number 1 that is young and played in a run first system. Teams will be falling over themselves to add a guy, that if targeted, is one of the best receivers in football. He is a nightmare for them. It is the type of investment that a contending team would jump at.

The Bills have a playoff streak to preserve.

[Buffalo86]

I'd probably decline. As others have stated, we could work out a new deal or tag him if he finally realizes his potential in 2017. The notion that we HAVE TO do it just because Whaley severely overpaid is absurd to me. Sometimes you have to face the fact that you've made a mistake & move on. I don't think I'd pay top 10 money for a guy who's never broken the top 20.

[Matt_In_NH]

If they dont pick it up it tells me they have major concerns on health.

[Kirby Jackson]

I'd probably decline. As others have stated, we could work out a new deal or tag him if he finally realizes his potential in 2017. The notion that we HAVE TO do it just because Whaley severely overpaid is absurd to me. Sometimes you have to face the fact that you've made a mistake & move on. I don't think I'd pay top 10 money for a guy who's never broken the top 20.

Can you name the 20 better receivers? Be prepared though to support it...

[Real McClappy]

Yeah, this conversation is really stupid. The Bills can't be that dumb. Pick up the option and thrown him the football more than 6.5 times a game.

That is what I was getting at earlier. How many targets does AB and JJ get a game? The fact we invested so heavily into Watkins and not giving him 10 targets a game when healthy is So Billsy.

Edited April 14, 2017 by Real McCoy

[TheElectricCompany]

? - How does that contradict the entire body of work? Watkins had over 2K receiving yds in his first two seasons, which was a lot more than Andre Reed, Lee Evans, and especially Eric Moulds.

We are discussing if he is a top tier receiver in today's NFL, not how he compared to past Bills. Through his career, he has not put together numbers that place him in the top 10 of receivers (I'd argue top 15).

[thebandit27]

Stop spreading rampant wrong information

No the franchise tag isnt fully guaranteed:

5. Franchise tender is guaranteed, with one exception.

 

Once a player signs the franchise tag, the one-year salary becomes fully guaranteed. But theres a little-known exception.

 

Under Article 10, Section 2© of the CBA, the contract can be terminated if the player fails to establish or maintain his excellent physical condition.

TD mike is picking up a ton of yards per carry are we gonna sign him to what would almost equate to top ten pay because he is geeting hefty yards per touch? No that's ludicrous as is the notion to put Watkins in the same stratosphere as elite wrs.

 

Sigh...I thought, up until this post, we actually found a subject you could argue without going off the deep end...apparently I was wrong.

 

You need to read the CBA, because there's a LOT more to what you're saying than the team simply deeming him unfit...which is why in the long history of the tag, we can't readily recall any team attempting to do that. Do you honestly believe that's a realistic possibility?

 

As to Gilislee, that's an absurd comparison. Gilly averaged 6.7 attempts per game--nowhere near enough to project what he could do if given a full workload over the course of a season. You also need to look at efficiency in context: he ranked 40th in carries, and 29th in yards. That's good, but not a major statistical outlier.

 

Watkins, by contrast, ranked 47th in targets in 2015, yet he finished 22nd in yards and tied for 14th in TDs. That's absolutely ridiculous. For comparison's sake, the guys that finished ahead of him in yards and had at least as many TDs are as follows:

 

Doug Baldwin - 104 targets

Brandin Cooks - 129 targets

AJ Green - 132 targets

Allen Robinson - 153 targets

Odell Beckham - 159 targets

Brandon Marshall - 174 targets

DeAndre Hopkins - 192 targets

Antonio Brown - 195 targets

Julio Jones - 204 targets

 

Sammy had 95 targets--95.

 

Go back and read the links I posted--context. It matters.

 

Yards per target is suddenly the new metric for NFL WRs? News to me.

I love isolated performance stats that contradict the entire body of work.

I think they'll pick up the option, as they should.

 

No, it's not new, and it's not all-encompassing. It is, however, very handy in showing how efficient guys are when they're given opportunities.

That is what I was getting at earlier. How many targets does AB and JJ get a game? The fact we invested so heavily into Watkins and not giving him 10 targets a game when healthy is So Billsy.

 

Absolutely--he's been poorly utilized (with the exception of the final 10 games of 2015)

[Kirby Jackson]

That is what I was getting at earlier. How many targets does AB and JJ get a game? The fact we invested so heavily into Watkins and not giving him 10 targets a game when healthy is So Billsy.

I used the last 3 years, Julio is getting 11 targets a game and AB 11.2.

[Buffalo86]

Can you name the 20 better receivers? Be prepared though to support it...

If we're talking about actual production, I could just copy & paste the WR stats leaders over his three years in the league. However, if we're taking the traditional Bills' fan perspective of "what could've been," that would be much harder to quantify.

[Kirby Jackson]

If we're talking about actual production, I could just copy & paste the WR stats leaders over his three years in the league. However, if we're taking the traditional Bills' fan perspective of "what could've been," that would be much harder to quantify.

You said he wasn't top 20. I am asking who they are?

[YoloinOhio]

I'd probably decline. As others have stated, we could work out a new deal or tag him if he finally realizes his potential in 2017. The notion that we HAVE TO do it just because Whaley severely overpaid is absurd to me. Sometimes you have to face the fact that you've made a mistake & move on. I don't think I'd pay top 10 money for a guy who's never broken the top 20.

your method of tagging instead is ignoring the options/tools available for roster building and maintenance. Sammy is the only one eligible for the 5th year option in 2018 while all UFAs are eligible for the tag. If you use the tag on him, you don't have it available for anyone else. If you use the tag on him now, and can't work out a long term deal, tagging him again is a crazy cap hit most teams won't take on which is why it's rarely used twice. It would be much more beneficial to use the option in 2018 and tag in 2019. Obviously working out a long term deal is what the Bills want but at this stage it's no guarantee. They need to use the tools available and the 5th year option in the CBA is one of the best tools out there for a FO. Especially considering the team can withdraw it later if needed. No brainer. Edited April 14, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[Buffalo86]

You said he wasn't top 20. I am asking who they are?

I said his production hasn't been in the top 20. Am I wrong?

[BarleyNY]

First, the franchise tag is fully guaranteed at the moment of signing.

 

As for Sammy, as I said earlier in the thread, he lead the entire NFL in yards/target over his first 2 seasons in the league (cumulative). I've said many times here that the number one predictor of WR success is targets, and Sammy plays in an offense that happens to have attempted the fewest passes in the NFL for 2 consecutive years. That he has managed to produce as he has is actually quite remarkable.

 

Take the entire 2015 season as an example: Amari Cooper--who many would consider a top-10 NFL WR--made the pro bowl, whereas Watkins did not. Cooper had 72 receptions and 1,070 yards with 6 TDs on 130 targets in 16 games. Watkins had 60 receptions on 95 targets and 1,047 yards with 9 TDs in 13 games,

 

Compare that, for example, to another pro bowler (and likely consensus top-10 NFL WR) Jarvis Landry's 2015 season. He had 94 receptions on 165 targets and 1,157 yards with 4 TDs in 16 games.

 

In other words, Sammy is equaling (or, it can be argued, out-producing) these guys despite being given far, far fewer opportunities.

 

I maintain that his only issue is availability.

 

Forget the trade-up, the guy started 29 of 32 games for his first 2 seasons and was outstanding when actually utilized like a No. 1 WR...that's why you pick up the option.

I gotta step in with my 2¢. I love the potential of Watkins. It is a no brainer to pick up his option for that reason alone. But it is extraordinarily dangerous to focus on a single stat like yards/target. His success in that regard is notable, but the Bills offense is made for very high yards/target. There's a reason we are discussing whether or not to pick up Watkins' option and not how big of a long term contract to offer him. His total production doesn't match his talent. Injuries - including those he's played through, but was hampered by - are certainly a big part of that. So is scheme. What happens if and when he's targeted more? His body will be asked to deal with more strain and punishment. What then? The one issue that has been my biggest concern with him may be his saving grace, however. His injuries haven't been contact related. Man, that bothers me, but at least he hasn't had issues with hits. Julio Jones had similar foot and soft tissue issues and was able to get right physically. He's been a stud since. If Sammy can do that, then we're in business. If not or, God forbid, he doesn't until after he moves on to another team, then.......well, I think we all know how those stories go.

 

I just don't like how this story is tracking right now. Watkins needs PRODUCTION to get the Bills to give him the big contract he surely wants. Let's game this out, assuming his option is picked up:

 

2017:

- Highly productive, like the 1500 yard seasons JJ & AB each had in one of their 1st four seasons. That gets him a big contract from the Bills before he plays out his option year.

- Good season or worse, say 1k yards again or injury plagued. This gets him to his option year.

 

2018 after the latter:

- Highly productive. Gets him franchised, which would lead to a LTD, trade or his departure after 2019.

- Good or worse. He's a FA. Outside possibility of tag if he had two good seasons in 2017 and 2018.

 

Watkins will want his money, of course. But he also will want his stats, which would lead to more money. Is he going to get that in Buffalo with the current scheme and QB? That's a tough sell. He's not staying here of his own free will if the next two seasons look like the last two. An excellent 2017 season for him would go a long way toward him staying here, so a lot is riding on that. That's why I'm holding my breath.

Edited April 14, 2017 by BarleyNY

[Buffalo86]

your method of tagging instead is ignoring the options/tools available for roster building and maintenance. Sammy is the only one eligible for the 5th year option in 2018 while all UFAs are eligible for the tag. If you use the tag on him, you don't have it available for anyone else. If you use the tag on him now, and can't work out a long term deal, tagging him again is a crazy cap hit most teams won't take on which is why it's rarely used twice. It would be much more beneficial to use the option in 2018 and tag in 2019. Obviously working out a long term deal is what the Bills want but at this stage it's no guarantee. They need to use the tools available and the 5th year option in the CBA is one of the best tools out there for a FO. Especially considering the team can withdraw it later if needed. No brainer.

True, but paying top 10 money to a WR who hasn't peformed to that standard isn't exactly a solid team building move. If you look at the guys who are up for FA in 2018, you'll have a really hard time finding someone who'd be worthy of tag consideration:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/

Edited April 14, 2017 by Buffalo86

[Kirby Jackson]

I said his production hasn't been in the top 20. Am I wrong?

On a per game or per target basis you would be for sure. If you want to take cumulative, you still may be wrong. Everyone knows that cumulative stats though aren't a very good indicator. If my team throws 65 times a game and the QB averages 300 yards a game my team (and QB) aren't very good. You would say, but he had 4,800 yards and I would say he had 3.4 yards per attempt!! That is why anyaltics and advanced statistics have taken over. They normalize the stats so that we can accurately compare. When that happens Sammy is borderline top 5 and definitely top 10.

 

He does need to stay healthy. Playing 12 1/3 games a year isn't ideal. The Bills also need to throw him the ball more than 6.5 times a game. Julio is getting 11 targets and Brown 11.2. Is there any reason, especially with the quality of pass catchers on this roster, that he doesn't get 10 targets a game? If he did his production would be right there with the best in the game.

[thebandit27]

I gotta step in with my 2¢. I love the potential of Watkins. It is a no brainer to pick up his option for that reason alone. But it is extraordinarily dangerous to focus on a single stat like yards/target. His success in that regard is notable, but the Bills offense is made for very high yards/target. There's a reason we are discussing whether or not to pick up Watkins' option and not how big of a long term contract to offer him. His total production doesn't match his talent. Injuries - including those he's played through, but was hampered by - are certainly a big part of that. So is scheme. What happens if and when he's targeted more? His body will be asked to deal with more strain and punishment. What then? The one issue that has been my biggest concern with him may be his saving grace, however. His injuries haven't been contact related. Man, that bothers me, but at least he hasn't had issues with hits. Julio Jones had similar foot and soft tissue issues and was able to get right physically. He's been a stud since. If Sammy can do that, then we're in business. If not or, God forbid, he doesn't until after he moves on to another team, then.......well, I think we all know how those stories go.

 

I just don't like how this story is tracking right now. Watkins needs PRODUCTION to get the Bills to give him the big contract he surely wants. Let's game this out, assuming his option is picked up:

 

2017:

- Highly productive, like the 1500 yard seasons JJ & AB each had in one of their 1st four seasons. That gets him a big contract from the Bills before he plays out his option year.

- Good season or worse, say 1k yards again or injury plagued. This gets him to his option year.

 

2018 after the latter:

- Highly productive. Gets him franchised, which would lead to a LTD, trade or his departure after 2019.

- Good or worse. He's a FA. Outside possibility of tag if he had two good seasons in 2017 and 2018.

 

Watkins will want his money, of course. But he also will want his stats, which would lead to more money. Is he going to get that in Buffalo with the current scheme and QB? That's a tough sell. He's not staying here of his own free will if the next two seasons look like the last two. An excellent 2017 season for him would go a long way toward him staying here, so a lot is riding on that. That's why I'm holding my breath.

 

My point isn't to focus on YPT as the defining metic, but rather to show that the guy produces as a No. 1 WR despite not being given anywhere near the same opportunity as the league's most productive. I mean, Julio Jones got 204 targets in 2015 compared to Sammy's 95...and yet Sammy had more TDs and 60% of Julio's yards on less than 50% of his touches.

 

I'm not against the wait-and-see approach, but that's my original point in this thread: picking up his option is still taking a wait-and-see approach.

[YoloinOhio]

True, but paying top 10 money to a WR who hasn't peformed to that standard isn't exactly a solid team building move. If you look at the guys who are up for FA in 2018, you'll have a really hard time finding someone who'd be worthy of tag consideration:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/

We will just agree to disagree that he's not worth the money. He's 23 and has shown elite ability when healthy, played through injury, not gotten in trouble, and is going to be very difficult to replace. #1 WRs make a lot of money. It's the NFL.

[TheElectricCompany]

 

No, it's not new, and it's not all-encompassing. It is, however, very handy in showing how efficient guys are when they're given opportunities.

 

I'm more interested in why he has continued to get less targets than many #1 receivers in the league.

 

Yes, you can blame the coaching staff, the offensive scheme, Tyrod's ability, his injury struggles, I get that, but at some point, you have to consider that Sammy may not be all he's cracked up to be when it comes to route running, separation, rapport with his QB, etc. etc. If he was really burning corners left and right and streaking down the field wide open, he'd have all the targets he'd need to be elite.

Edited April 14, 2017 by TheElectricCompany