Source: Bills Still Deciding on Watkins' 5th Year Option

[Saxum]

https://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/04/17/dan-rooney-dean-blandino-nfl-draft-peter-king

 

4. I think it would be amazing if the Bills—who traded a quarterback-like haul (first-round and fourth-round picks in 2015 to move up five spots in the 2014 draft) to get him—did not pick up the fifth-year option on wideout Sammy Watkins … and it would be a strong indication that the franchise is worried that his lingering foot injury in 2016 is a continuing factor. Watkins has averaged an unimpressive 51 catches a year in his three NFL seasons, missing 11 games due to injury in the process. He never was right all of 2016. But if this is his last year in Buffalo, it could be a harbinger of doom for GM Doug Whaley.

[Kirby Jackson]

I think gross production can be fine, there are dozens of metrics that could be considered a "standard stat".

 

Advanced stats that inflate or project across an entire season do bug me. You can't just double the the targets and get double the output. The NFL has so many variables that I just don't think it's that simple. He will never see double the targets in a run heavy offense. Now, as I previously mentioned, the quality of opportunities should be much higher assuming that our run game is setting up a very strong play action game.

 

DT and Sanders in the Kubiak/Dennyson offense both had their numbers fall across the board. Some of that can be blamed on poor QB play, but you have to put some blame on the scheme. Despite having the best WR combo in the league, they focused their energies on getting a run game jump started that never took off. Their play action game was a joke, and the passing game thoroughly missed the WR screens and deep balls that both of those guys could produced.

We aren't going to agree on gross stats as a good indicator. They are fun to put on a football card but I don't believe that they are a good indicator of anything. That's why advanced stats have taken their place. They normalize things. I don't want to see a comparison between a guy that had the ball thrown to him 96 times vs. a guy that had it thrown to him 160 times (Emmanuel Sanders). I'm not impressed that he had 88 more yards and 3 less TDs on 64 more passes thrown his way.

 

I don't think double the targets will result in double the production. At the same time we shouldn't expect more opportunities to produce drastically different results. The sample size of his career is big enough to project. The projection that I have been using has been at EXACTLY what he has done on a per target basis in his career. At 160 targets for the year, his production in his career would translate to 105 catches, 1,698 yards and 12 TDs. Maybe it would be more, maybe it would be less but what he has done on a per target basis is the best indicator.

 

I wouldn't have Sammy top 5. That is Julio, AB, Green, Beckham and Mike Evans. I think that Sammy has the talent to be in the tier with Julio, AB and Green. At the moment I have him with Dez (also because of health), Nelson and Fitz. The next group I would have Michael Thomas, Marshall, Demaryius, Baldwin, Cooper and Hilton.

 

With that I am going to bow out of this because it is just going round and round. It's okay to disagree.

Edited April 17, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[Bill_with_it]

ill be blunt, because i do this sometimes too, but are you essentially going with the argument despite someone watching the tape, knowing the pro evaluators, etc... that you are going to not believe their assessment because of the stat line and not actually having dug in on the players tape?

 

there are a lot of dudes that go gaga over youtube highlights here, but a few of the guys that you are chatting with put in real effort to this as more than a casual fan. or have solid histories within the bills organization and know the people personally. weve got folks here that do the full game all 22 week in and week out, not just a little WGR feature. some of them mutliple times focusing on different units. i appreciate their efforts a lot, even if i think they are a little crazy delving so deep -- but if it makes them happy, all the better for us.

 

but if you are like me and mostly watch the game live, snag a good breakdown or two, and use common sense -- include the folks kirby mentioned in his post as part of that good breakdown or two.

Just because someone looks at the all 22 100 times and posts her or his opinion of what he or she is viewing means nothing. Has any of these message board scouts worked for an organization in the scouting depqrtment? Went to a scouting school? Interned under a profootball organization in a scouting environment? No what the play call was? Stevie was open more often than not using all 22, using this as criteria as most of someone i this thread insinuate that getting open is indicative of a good receiver, well we know Stevie was nowhere near a top receiver. Thats the problem with the message board scouts. They think they know exactly what the reciever is supposed to do with out knowing what the reciever is supposed to do or the play call. Look Sammy has shown flashes of WHAT COULD BE unfortunately his injuries THUS far warrants a very cautious approach towards getting him locked up long term. As such the BILLS are taking a correct approach this far as they should they are professionals. They know the play call that the message board scouts dont know. They know the wrs dities during the play call that thebmeasage board scouts dont know. They know Sammys work ethic that the message board scouts dont know. They know Sammys injuries, ouchies, and what his medical future holds for right now that the message board scouts dont know.

Finally just because you dumped precious commodities into an asset is no reason to keep a player. The players production/abilities to produce measured in worth towards the organization is the sole reason a player should be retained. Not because you dumped 3 picks on him on draft day.

[TheElectricCompany]

We aren't going to agree on gross stats as a good indicator. They are fun to put on a football card but I don't believe that they are a good indicator of anything. That's why advanced stats have taken their place. They normalize things. I don't want to see a comparison between a guy that had the ball thrown to him 96 times vs. a guy that had it thrown to him 160 times (Emmanuel Sanders). I'm not impressed that he had 88 more yards and 3 less TDs on 64 more passes thrown his way.

 

I don't think double the targets will result in double the production. At the same time we shouldn't expect more opportunities to produce drastically different results. The sample size of his career is big enough to project. The projection that I have been using has been at EXACTLY what he has done on a per target basis in his career. At 160 targets for the year, his production in his career would translate to 105 catches, 1,698 yards and 12 TDs. Maybe it would be more, maybe it would be less but what he has done on a per target basis is the best indicator.

 

I wouldn't have Sammy top 5. That is Julio, AB, Green, Beckham and Mike Evans. I think that Sammy has the talent to be in the tier with Julio, AB and Green. At the moment I have him with Dez (also because of health), Nelson and Fitz. The next group I would have Michael Thomas, Marshall, Demaryius, Baldwin, Cooper and Hilton.

 

With that I am going to bow out of this because it is just going round and round. It's okay to disagree.

Yes, it is. It's certainly gone down a rabbit hole.

Please Sammy, catch a few 70 yards TDs to shut me and Kirby up!

[Kirby Jackson]

Yes, it is. It's certainly gone down a rabbit hole.

Please Sammy, catch a few 70 yards TDs to shut me and Kirby up!

Works for me!!

[NoSaint]

Just because someone looks at the all 22 100 times and posts her or his opinion of what he or she is viewing means nothing. Has any of these message board scouts worked for an organization in the scouting depqrtment? Went to a scouting school? Interned under a profootball organization in a scouting environment? No what the play call was? Stevie was open more often than not using all 22, using this as criteria as most of someone i this thread insinuate that getting open is indicative of a good receiver, well we know Stevie was nowhere near a top receiver. Thats the problem with the message board scouts. They think they know exactly what the reciever is supposed to do with out knowing what the reciever is supposed to do or the play call. Look Sammy has shown flashes of WHAT COULD BE unfortunately his injuries THUS far warrants a very cautious approach towards getting him locked up long term. As such the BILLS are taking a correct approach this far as they should they are professionals. They know the play call that the message board scouts dont know. They know the wrs dities during the play call that thebmeasage board scouts dont know. They know Sammys work ethic that the message board scouts dont know. They know Sammys injuries, ouchies, and what his medical future holds for right now that the message board scouts dont know.

Finally just because you dumped precious commodities into an asset is no reason to keep a player. The players production/abilities to produce measured in worth towards the organization is the sole reason a player should be retained. Not because you dumped 3 picks on him on draft day.

We actually do have guys around that have done the schools, or have a number of friends doing this professionally that help guide their opinions.

 

Additionally, ESPECIALLY at WR it counts for something to say you've actually watched the 22 or been at a lot of games. Otherwise, simply watching cbs on Sunday, you seeing Sammy on like 10% of his snaps

 

So when I call those dudes out on their opinions I tend to make sure I've backed mine up a bit extra or have more resources to support it. That's all.

Yes, it is. It's certainly gone down a rabbit hole.

Please Sammy, catch a few 70 yards TDs to shut me and Kirby up!

And a ton of 15-20 Yarders too

[DefenseWins]

yup. i think you have to.

you still don't cast him aside because of this.

 

Nobody is "casting him aside"... You are making a business decision to make him show you that he can put in a full season before you agree to pay him a boatload of cash... You can always tag him for about 3 million more than picking up the 5th year option right now... If he has an "elite" season this year you sign him to a long term deal... If he has another mediocre season you have a real decision to make... Ultimately he has to stay healthy if he is ever going to achieve "elite" status...

Edited April 18, 2017 by DefenseWins

[3rdand12]

We actually do have guys around that have done the schools, or have a number of friends doing this professionally that help guide their opinions.

 

Additionally, ESPECIALLY at WR it counts for something to say you've actually watched the 22 or been at a lot of games. Otherwise, simply watching cbs on Sunday, you seeing Sammy on like 10% of his snaps

 

So when I call those dudes out on their opinions I tend to make sure I've backed mine up a bit extra or have more resources to support it. That's all.

 

And a ton of 15-20 Yarders too

For those that do not already . You have earned respect here already. For many reasons . Thanks for keeping steady My Friend

 

Nobody is "casting him aside"... You are making a business decision to make him show you that he can put in a full season before you agree to pay him a boatload of cash... You can always tag him for about 3 million more than picking up the 5th year option right now... If he has an "elite" season this year you sign him to a long term deal... If he has another mediocre season you have a real decision to make... Ultimately he has to stay healthy if he is ever going to achieve "elite" status...

Funny thing is, he has his elite year finally and it costs money.

think about that risk reward ratio. Right now it is med + risk. which is enough to frown over for a GM

[Bill_with_it]

For those that do not already . You have earned respect here already. For many reasons . Thanks for keeping steady My Friend

 

Funny thing is, he has his elite year finally and it costs money.

think about that risk reward ratio. Right now it is med + risk. which is enough to frown over for a GM

Theres literally no risk. Julio Jones is making roughly 14.2 mil a year 2 years ago. Antonio Brown signed a contract this year for 17 mil a year with only 19 guaranteed. Were talking about a 1.2-4 mil increase over what his option is if he performs to jj and abs level. On the other hand we save 13 mil if his health continues to keep him from being productive. It really is a buisness decision. Wait and see if I am the Bills.

[Boatdrinks]

Nobody is "casting him aside"... You are making a business decision to make him show you that he can put in a full season before you agree to pay him a boatload of cash... You can always tag him for about 3 million more than picking up the 5th year option right now... If he has an "elite" season this year you sign him to a long term deal... If he has another mediocre season you have a real decision to make... Ultimately he has to stay healthy if he is ever going to achieve "elite" status...

The trouble with this approach is if he has an " elite " season as you put it. Then he is a FA and his price goes way up. If you tag him, you risk losing the player because they hate being tagged. You can be assured he will have no inclination to re-sign here for the show of no confidence they gave by not picking up his option. Decisions like these are what GMs get paid big $$ for. It's just not so easy as saying you don't pick the option up. If you don't pick it up, then plan on the player departing.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

So in your opinion, the option is about deciding the best way to keep him rather than what the media will report as "not picking up the 5th year option cause we don't want him".

 

I could agree with that, and that makes this "still deciding on picking up the option" thing make a whole lot more sense.

 

It is absurd that they wouldn't want to like the media is portraying it as.

Sort of. I think you take another year to determine what a good value is for him.

 

See, if they pick up the option, he's making 13.5 million in 2018, even if he plays 1 game and posts 10 yrds in 2017 unless there are some clauses...

 

However, if he posts an average year, maybe he can be tagged, then they attempt a better value long term deal closer to an average price point.

 

if he demands top 5 money and his production and availability haven't warranted it, maybe you look to move on. Or tag him for one more year then Let him walk or use one of the other types of tags that get you more in return.

 

Conversely if he blows up and sets records, you can still tag him and then figure out some long term deal that works...

 

In my view it's better business to pass on the option and yes.... it is unfortunate the media extracts the polarizing factoids from the conversation to build their own more dramatic narrative. But hey drama sells

[White Linen]

To this team he's already worth the 5th year option money. I think this has to be about whether that foot is a real long term concern.

 

April 20th is veteran camp and after they're satisfied the foot is good - they will pick up the 5th year.

[34-78-83]

I get it but even here "his teams don't win." They have won half of their games since his first draft as the GM. No one is saying that he is perfect but has been okay. If you analyze each and every decision that he has made as the GM you are going to find a lot of good. Reading TBD you'd think that the roster looked like 2006.

 

In terms of a "job that people would kill for" he earned it with the work that he did in Pittsburgh. I know for a fact that he could go back there tomorrow if he were fired. Kevin Colbert thinks very highly of him. The conversation is much better on here when we deal in reality. No one is saying that he is great but a lot of people are saying that he is awful. The truth lies somewhere in between.

 

I guess that I am just kind of exhausted by the Bills hate amongst Bills fans. The last year or so has gotten really bad. There used to be some things that we liked and some that we didn't. Now, to Gunner's point, no matter what they do the vocal majority hates it. It is guilty until proven innocent. They sign a guy that 90% of us have never seen play but automatically he sucks, because Bills. I just long for the days when things would be discussed and stand on their own merit. As an example, I loved the Hyde signing but thought they should tendered TD MG higher. I would say that is 1 good and 1 bad.

You aren't alone in this thought. Well put.

[3rdand12]

Sort of. I think you take another year to determine what a good value is for him.

 

See, if they pick up the option, he's making 13.5 million in 2018, even if he plays 1 game and posts 10 yrds in 2017 unless there are some clauses...

 

However, if he posts an average year, maybe he can be tagged, then they attempt a better value long term deal closer to an average price point.

 

if he demands top 5 money and his production and availability haven't warranted it, maybe you look to move on. Or tag him for one more year then Let him walk or use one of the other types of tags that get you more in return.

 

Conversely if he blows up and sets records, you can still tag him and then figure out some long term deal that works...

 

In my view it's better business to pass on the option and yes.... it is unfortunate the media extracts the polarizing factoids from the conversation to build their own more dramatic narrative. But hey drama sells

I think this covers a lot of ground. Thanks !

[Maury Ballstein]

Pay that man his money

[Wayne Arnold]

It's a great feature, but that doesn't mean we're any better at analyzing players. We're all just casual fans who have no idea on how to watch tape and measure play by play performance.

 

Goodness. It's football, not rocket science.

[dbflaBill]

If reports of the Bills not looking to extend Sammy are true, and for those fans that think hes a bust. His first 3 years compare very similar to Julio Jones first three. and Julio has Matt Ryan throwing to him

 

JJ

34 games played 174 receptions, 2737yds 20tds

 

sammy

37 games played 153 receptions 2459yds 17tds

 

Neither the Bills nor anyone should really be dogging sammy, and if the Bills let him walk it'd be a total joke. The stats are very comparable, if anything Sammy is the more productive WR based on the qbs he has had throwing to him.

[YoloinOhio]

@adamschefter

Cowboys officially have picked up 5th-year option for star guard Zack Martin, per @FieldYates.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Look, I'm very much for picking up the 5th year, but here's another comparison for Julio and Sammy:

 

JJ:

6'3"

220 lbs

33.75" arms

9.75" hands

4.39 40

38.5" Vertical

135" Broad

6.66 3-cone

4.25 20-yard shuttle

11.07 60 yard shuttle

 

 

SW:

6'1"

211 lbs

32" arms

9.625" hands

4.43 40

34" Vertical

126" Broad

6.95 3-cone

4.34 20-yard shuttle

[dbflaBill]

I'm not doubting JJ is the better WR. But Sammy measurables being less than JJ, further prove my point. He is close statistically with JJ in the first three years having less measurables and a much worse QB..