Source: Bills Still Deciding on Watkins' 5th Year Option

[kota]

You pick it up on potential alone.

[bobobonators]

Regarding the trade for Sammy duscussed by several in this thread:

 

Im a big fan of Sammy and think he will be a stud once he puts this foot thing behind him. That being said, trading up for a WR in one of the deepest WR classes in a long time was the wrong move in hindsight (which is always 20/20).

 

No way in hell we dont pick up the option

[Bill from NYC]

 

Bill, most of this is simply false.

 

Cooper is 6'1", 211 lbs

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/amari-cooper?id=2552487

Sammy is 6'1", 211 lbs.

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/sammy-watkins?id=2543457

 

Cooper's drop rate was 7.1% as a rookie and 2.3% last year.

Sammy's drop rate was 3.1% as a rookie, 3.1% in year 2, and 3.9% last year

 

On a per-target basis, Sammy smokes Cooper despite playing with a QB that is clearly not the passer that Carr is at the current time.

 

And that brings me back to my point: Cooper is probably a top-10 WR in the NFL by most accounts.

 

Sammy has 2 seasons of performing like a No. 1 WR despite a staggering lack of opportunity in comparison to his peers.

 

The only issue with him is availability. Now, if someone places a higher level of emphasis on that than someone else, sure, that's an argument worth having.

 

Whether or not he's as productive as other guys when given the targets is not up for debate.

I stand corrected. When Sammy came up I seem to recall him being listed as shorter than 6'1'. My bad.

 

As long as Sammy remains on the Bills, I hope he has a better career than Cooper. Remember, I have seen much more of Amari than I have of Sammy. What I am sure of is that Watkins has great moves, better than most receivers I have ever seen. He has the talent. That is beyond question. If he has as much heart as he has talent (and the right attitude), he could be a hall of fame type player.

 

Cooper as you know is a year behind Watkins. He is one excellent football player and seems like a great kid. I liked him in college as much as I did Jones. I am reasonably sure that he will continue to improve and excel. We shall see.

[The Jokeman]

Pick it up but also draft a viable replacement (as most WRs take three seasons before reaching their potential) to either compliment or replace Sammy if he can't stay healthy.

[Dr.Sack]

I would only because you've given up a small fortune to acquire Watkins. We can't keep on losing 1st round talent, and the 5th year option is designed to help you retain those players. Is Watkins a top WR? No not yet. Will he ever be? Remains to be seen. There's too much upside with Watkins, that's why not picking up the 5th year option makes little sense.

[NoSaint]

That's good that you're well connected with established NFL scouts, but I don't see them making the kind of ridiculous statements this thread is full.

 

I just don't see how someone could walk away from watching Sammy live and on tape over the past three seasons and think the guy is the best thing since sliced bread. It's perfectly fine for some to disregard the consistency and production of established top tier receivers and both inflate and project what Sammy could do if his situation was perfected. Again, he's not a bad receiver, he's certainly quality and has big play ability, but it's this top 3-10 stuff that makes me scratch my head.

 

If the guy really burns corners left and right and is open every play, how is it that 3 offensive coordinators and 2 head coaches couldn't find a way to get him the ball consistently? There are only two possible scenarios: Our coaches were so incredibly incompetent that they missed a top tier receiver right in front of their eyes, or he's just not as good as we think. Take your pick.

ill be blunt, because i do this sometimes too, but are you essentially going with the argument despite someone watching the tape, knowing the pro evaluators, etc... that you are going to not believe their assessment because of the stat line and not actually having dug in on the players tape?

 

there are a lot of dudes that go gaga over youtube highlights here, but a few of the guys that you are chatting with put in real effort to this as more than a casual fan. or have solid histories within the bills organization and know the people personally. weve got folks here that do the full game all 22 week in and week out, not just a little WGR feature. some of them mutliple times focusing on different units. i appreciate their efforts a lot, even if i think they are a little crazy delving so deep -- but if it makes them happy, all the better for us.

 

but if you are like me and mostly watch the game live, snag a good breakdown or two, and use common sense -- include the folks kirby mentioned in his post as part of that good breakdown or two.

[NoSaint]

I stand corrected. When Sammy came up I seem to recall him being listed as shorter than 6'1'. My bad.

 

As long as Sammy remains on the Bills, I hope he has a better career than Cooper. Remember, I have seen much more of Amari than I have of Sammy. What I am sure of is that Watkins has great moves, better than most receivers I have ever seen. He has the talent. That is beyond question. If he has as much heart as he has talent (and the right attitude), he could be a hall of fame type player.

 

Cooper as you know is a year behind Watkins. He is one excellent football player and seems like a great kid. I liked him in college as much as I did Jones. I am reasonably sure that he will continue to improve and excel. We shall see.

yup -- i think watkins, cooper, OBJ are that next generation of ELITE talents behind the AJ Green/dez bryant/julio type of players that are right at their peak now (all 5 years older). i dont know that all three make it, but i think theres a pretty good shot for each one.

[TheElectricCompany]

ill be blunt, because i do this sometimes too, but are you essentially going with the argument despite someone watching the tape, knowing the pro evaluators, etc... that you are going to not believe their assessment because of the stat line and not actually having dug in on the players tape?

 

there are a lot of dudes that go gaga over youtube highlights here, but a few of the guys that you are chatting with put in real effort to this as more than a casual fan. or have solid histories within the bills organization and know the people personally. weve got folks here that do the full game all 22 week in and week out, not just a little WGR feature. some of them mutliple times focusing on different units. i appreciate their efforts a lot, even if i think they are a little crazy delving so deep -- but if it makes them happy, all the better for us.

 

but if you are like me and mostly watch the game live, snag a good breakdown or two, and use common sense -- include the folks kirby mentioned in his post as part of that good breakdown or two.

I value that some folks like to spend their time doing this, it's not my cup of tea, but to each their own.

 

However, I am naturally suspicious when someone starts arguing that 1) an elite player is not really that good or 2) a good player is closer to elite because of all these advanced stats or in depth film watching. We know where Sammy ranks in total production, so when folks are arguing how he's top 5 or something, yeah, it grinds my gears. We've all got a little homer to us, but let's be real about what other elite receivers have produced and the hill Sammy has to climb to reach that category. Again, he's clearly talented, but we've had plenty of guys with potential.

 

I cross my fingers that a 2017 campaign of 91 catches, 1,395 yards and 12 TDs put to rest this argument.

 

yup -- i think watkins, cooper, OBJ are that next generation of ELITE talents behind the AJ Green/dez bryant/julio type of players that are right at their peak now (all 5 years older). i dont know that all three make it, but i think theres a pretty good shot for each one.

OBJ already rewrote the record books for receivers through 3 years, Julio is the only receiver in the league I would take over him straight up.

Edited April 17, 2017 by TheElectricCompany

[GunnerBill]

There is a nuanced difference between arguing he IS top 5 and arguing he is talented enough (capable in my words) to be a top 5 receiver.

 

I think you can argue the second of those without the stellar production based on proper film study and analysis of the bald statistics. To argue the first I think you do need the production to back it up.

OBJ already rewrote the record books for receivers through 3 years, Julio is the only receiver in the league I would take over him straight up.

Julio, Brown and AJ Green are 1,2,3 for me. I think you can have an argument after that around as many as 6 or 7 guys but I would go Beckham and Bryant.

[TheElectricCompany]

There is a nuanced difference between arguing he IS top 5 and arguing he is talented enough (capable in my words) to be a top 5 receiver.

 

I think you can argue the second of those without the stellar production based on proper film study and analysis of the bald statistics. To argue the first I think you do need the production to back it up.

 

Julio, Brown and AJ Green are 1,2,3 for me. I think you can have an argument after that around as many as 6 or 7 guys but I would go Beckham and Bryant.

Yeah, I would only put OBJ that high because I think he's the best speed threat and his performance in years 1-3 is unprecedented. If he had Julio's size I think you have a case for him being #1.

 

I would rank them:

Julio - OBJ - Antonio Brown - AJ Green - Demaryius Thomas - Dez.

 

However, I don't think the dropoff to guys like Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald and Emmanuel Sanders is very severe. The quality of wide receivers in 2017 is very high.

Edited April 17, 2017 by TheElectricCompany

[GunnerBill]

However, I don't think the dropoff to guys like Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald and Emmanuel Sanders is very severe. The quality of wide receivers in 2017 is very high.

Hopkins, Cooper and Watkins would all be above Sanders and Hilton on my list.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

Cap figure could be a reason. I'd rather get Watkins inked to a 6 year deal prior to the end of his deal than pay him $13M base one year THEN have to spread another deal out over six years. The franchise tag is not THAT much higher than $13M.

It is likely right about 10% more unless, some huge deal or retirement/cut happens.

 

So is it worth risking $1.3 million for another season of information AND is there likely to be anyone else they'd need the tag after next season?

 

That's why this isn't a easy choice.

[TheElectricCompany]

Hopkins, Cooper and Watkins would all be above Sanders and Hilton on my list.

 

I respectfully disagree based on production & playmaking ability.

 

Outside of the top 5, I don't really have a firm ranking in mind. I think you could make a case for many guys, but I would argue there are clearly 10 guys that are better than Sammy right now, if not 15.

Edited April 17, 2017 by TheElectricCompany

[GunnerBill]

I respectfully disagree based on production & playmaking ability.

 

Outside of the top 5, I don't really have a firm ranking in mind. I think you could make a case for many guys, but I would argue there are clearly 10 guys that are better than Sammy right now, if not 15.

I don't disagree that beyond the top 3 or 4 (without getting to 5) you can rank many different ways because beyond those top 3 and probably Beckham the way you measure production produces drastically different results and so I think then you have to go to the tape and there is bound to be some subjectivity. I think having Sammy at 15 and behind the likes of Sanders and Hilton is too low. He is a much more complete and talented receiver than they. But if you look just at the bald stat of receiving yards you can make the argument.

 

Personally somewhere between about 8 and 12 feels about right to me for Sammy Watkins at this stage. His ceiling is higher in my opinion than a lot of those other guys but there is something to the argument that ceilings only become relevant when guys reach them.

Edited April 17, 2017 by GunnerBill

[TheElectricCompany]

I don't disagree that beyond the top 3 or 4 (without getting to 5) you can rank many different ways because beyond those top 3 and probably Beckham the way you measure production produces drastically different results and so I think then you have to go to the tape and there is bound to be some subjectivity. I think having Sammy at 15 and behind the likes of Sanders and Hilton is too low. He is a much more complete and talented receiver than they. But if you look just at the bald stat of receiving yards you can make the argument.

 

Personally somewhere between about 8 and 12 feels about right to me for Sammy Watkins at this stage. His ceiling is higher in my opinion than a lot of those other guys but there is something to the argument that ceilings only become relevant when guys reach them.

Fair enough. Problem is, if you take all stats out of the equation, and make it all about "talent" and "completeness", it becomes far too vague and open to interpretation, and that's likely what this "How good is Sammy?" debate comes down (and why I continue to default to production).

Edited April 17, 2017 by TheElectricCompany

[Kirby Jackson]

Fair enough. Problem is, if you take all stats out of the equation, and make it all about "talent" and "completeness", it becomes far too vague and open to interpretation, and that's likely what this "How good is Sammy?" debate comes down (and why I continue to default to production).

But you are defaulting to gross production (which isn't a very good indicator). That's why advanced stats were created. The guy who has 30 carries for 100 yards isn't as effective as the guy who has 15 carries for 96 yards. Watkins hasn't seen the ball like those other guys. If he did his numbers would dwarf many of them. When he has seen it he has been dynamic (like top of the league good). He HAS to stay healthy and that is a fair argument. He has played in 77% of his games so far. He has been grossly misused outside of a 9 game stretch in 2015 after he said "throw me the ball." He led the league in receiving from that point forward. Targets and health are the only things holding him back. I strongly suspect Dennison is going to make a point to get him the football. Here is a look at targets from 2015 (when he was mostly healthy). There are a bunch of guys that got DOUBLE the looks!! Richard Rogers had more balls thrown his way!! That is totally unacceptable. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/receiving-targeted?season_id=13. It isn't just a QB thing either because Deandre Hopkins is consistently near the top of that list. Edited April 17, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[GunnerBill]

Fair enough. Problem is, if you take all stats out of the equation, and make it all about "talent" and "completeness", it becomes far too vague and open to interpretation, and that's likely what this "How good is Sammy?" debate comes down (and why I continue to default to production).

You misunderstand what I am saying. I am saying beyond those top 4 you can look at what you would call "production" many different way. Yes you can look at bald receiving yards numbers and they will give you one picture - but an incomplete one in my view. Then you have to drill down into targets and what they are doing with those targets whether than be YPC, % of targets for TDs or any other metric.

[TheElectricCompany]

But you are defaulting to gross production (which isn't a very good indicator). That's why advanced stats were created. The guy who has 30 carries for 100 yards isn't as effective as the guy who has 15 carries for 96 yards. Watkins hasn't seen the ball like those other guys. If he did his numbers would dwarf many of them. When he has seen it he has been dynamic (like top of the league good). He HAS to stay healthy and that is a fair argument. He has played in 77% of his games so far. He has been grossly misused outside of a 9 game stretch in 2015 after he said "throw me the ball." He led the league in receiving from that point forward. Targets and health are the only things holding him back. I strongly suspect Dennison is going to make a point to get him the football. Here is a look at targets from 2015 (when he was mostly healthy). There are a bunch of guys that got DOUBLE the looks!! Richard Rogers had more balls thrown his way!! That is totally unacceptable. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/receiving-targeted?season_id=13. It isn't just a QB thing either because Deandre Hopkins is consistently near the top of that list.

I think gross production can be fine, there are dozens of metrics that could be considered a "standard stat".

 

Advanced stats that inflate or project across an entire season do bug me. You can't just double the the targets and get double the output. The NFL has so many variables that I just don't think it's that simple. He will never see double the targets in a run heavy offense. Now, as I previously mentioned, the quality of opportunities should be much higher than what many WRs are used to, assuming that our run game is setting up a very strong play action game.

 

DT and Sanders in the Kubiak/Dennyson offense both had their numbers fall across the board. Some of that can be blamed on poor QB play, but you have to put some blame on the scheme. Despite having the best WR combo in the league, they focused their energies on getting a run game jump started that never took off. Their play action game was a joke, and the passing game thoroughly missed the WR screens and deep balls that both of those guys have excelled at. We do have a run game in place, so it will be interesting if their offense can be more effective here.

You misunderstand what I am saying. I am saying beyond those top 4 you can look at what you would call "production" many different way. Yes you can look at bald receiving yards numbers and they will give you one picture - but an incomplete one in my view. Then you have to drill down into targets and what they are doing with those targets whether than be YPC, % of targets for TDs or any other metric.

I have never claimed its a simple as yards, that would be too easy to rank 'em that way, but yards are certainly not a throwaway number.

I imagine that we'll never come to a consensus on even 5 key stats that determine the effectiveness of a WR.

Edited April 17, 2017 by TheElectricCompany

[GunnerBill]

I imagine that we'll never come to a consensus on even 5 key stats that determine the effectiveness of a WR.

Probably not which is why I think beyond those obvious stand outs there is room for considerable difference of opinion. I think you are a little low on Sammy but I understand your reasoning even if I don't entirely agree with it.

[What a Tuel]

It is likely right about 10% more unless, some huge deal or retirement/cut happens.

 

So is it worth risking $1.3 million for another season of information AND is there likely to be anyone else they'd need the tag after next season?

 

That's why this isn't a easy choice.

 

So in your opinion, the option is about deciding the best way to keep him rather than what the media will report as "not picking up the 5th year option cause we don't want him".

 

I could agree with that, and that makes this "still deciding on picking up the option" thing make a whole lot more sense.

 

It is absurd that they wouldn't want to like the media is portraying it as.

Edited April 17, 2017 by What a Tuel