if no QB is taken in the top 9... do you?

[Chuck Wagon]

A or C...whatever you do, DONT take the QB at 10. There is a reason that many QB needy teams ahead of us would have passed on them and there are some great prospects at 10 for us that are bigger needs at positions we don't even have a starter. If we can trade back a few spots, that would be great.

 

 

So if we evaluate a QB to be worth the 10th pick, we shouldn't take them because nine of the worst run teams in the league also didn't take a QB? We have "starters" at every position, we won't be playing 9 on 11, our evaluation of the QBs should have nothing to do with what the nine teams in front of us do.

Edited April 7, 2017 by Chuck Wagon

[billieve420]

We haven't had much success in drafting QBs as it is. Unless one of these guys is a sure fire starter I wouldn't draft them on the hope they develop into something. Plus if other teams are passing it will say all we need to know about this QB class. Teams don't pass up on Franchise QBs. I don't want to go through another EJ situation where we feel forced to take one.

 

At pick #10 if QB is the highest rated player on the draft board go ahead and draft him otherwise you have to stick to picking the best player available.

[1billsfan]

I draft the qb. My order of preference: Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky.

If you think one of the available qbs is a franchise qb, why wouldn't you draft them? It's the most important position in today's NFL.

It doesn't matter how strong or weak the 2018 class is in that case.

The people who are passing on the qb just don't think highly of any of them.

This is not 2013 redux imo.

Depth at DB means you can get a good one in the second round, no?

 

I'd take Mahomes at #10 not only because he has the great talent, but he also has competitiveness, the right personality and the love of the game. You get that kind of combination, and you start feeling comfortable that he's not the boom/bust risk the "experts" say. His floor starts looking like Dalton, while his ceiling is Favre. Draft him and sit him for the year regardless. Develop him the right way.

 

You're an NFL afterthought until you get the QB, and whichever "elite" non-QB player you draft now, the chances are great that player won't be here in five years while the Bills are still looking for their franchise QB.

[racketmaster]

Draft OJ Howard if he is there or if one of top 2 safeties fall to us. If not there move down as we need extra picks. No need to draft QB this year unless it is a mid round pick like Peterman.

[Alphadawg7]

 

 

So if we evaluate a QB to be worth the 10th pick, we shouldn't take them because nine of the worst run teams in the league also didn't take a QB? We have "starters" at every position, we won't be playing 9 on 11, our evaluation of the QBs should have nothing to do with what the nine teams in front of us do.

 

I didn't say it should rely on the evaluation of the teams in front of us. I said, there is a reason that they will fall...why, because there are BETTER prospects in this draft at other positions. Our biggest need isn't QB either no mater what your position on TT is.

 

And stop with the semantics...sure, i can sign to the Bills and be listed as a "starter" that doesn't mean we have "starter quality" player at the position. So yes, I am fully aware there are more than enough players to roll out 11 guys, that doesn't mean those guys are quality players. We need help badly in our secondary and we really need another playmaker on offense at WR or even Howard.

 

We can always look QB in the 2nd if they want one. If the Bills grade a QB out to be the BPA on their board at 10, then I am sure they will pull the trigger. But I find that really hard to believe that under any scenario the BPA at 10 will be a QB considering the highest rated QB but most accounts is Trubisky and I have yet to see any one rate him as one of the 10 best players in the draft overall. Now I am fully aware that teams don't disclose their rankings and every team will rank them differently and any one of them, including us, could have any one of the QB's rated in their top 10.

 

But since NONE of us know the boards of the teams, all we can do is guess based on what is put out there and our own opinions on the prospects. The fact that there are several teams ahead of us that need a QB and its quite possible none of them will take one says a lot about the confidence in this class going into the draft. Who knows, maybe Trubs, Mahomes, or even a guy taken in the 6th round this year will go not to be the GOAT, its happened before, but we don't have the luxury of seeing the future.

 

Bottom line: I will hate taking a QB at 10 if we do go that way, however, I will root hard for them to succeed if we do. But I think its a mistake, especially since we could easily grab one in the 2nd still or take a guy like Peterson in the 3rd or Kelly in the 5th and let them compete with Cardale while TT gets a chance to see if what he can do with a better staff and healthy roster around him.

Edited April 7, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[BillsfanAZ]

Trade back for sure. By most accounts this is a weak QB class and none are ready to play yet. If one of the top safties drops you take him at 10.

[Dr. Who]

 

I'd take Mahomes at #10 not only because he has the great talent, but he also has competitiveness, the right personality and the love of the game. You get that kind of combination, and you start feeling comfortable that he's not the boom/bust risk the "experts" say. His floor starts looking like Dalton, while his ceiling is Favre. Draft him and sit him for the year regardless. Develop him the right way.

 

You're an NFL afterthought until you get the QB, and whichever "elite" non-QB player you draft now, the chances are great that player won't be here in five years while the Bills are still looking for their franchise QB.

Well, I agree with you. I hope OBD is on the same page, but I doubt it.

[BillsfanAZ]

 

I'd take Mahomes at #10 not only because he has the great talent, but he also has competitiveness, the right personality and the love of the game. You get that kind of combination, and you start feeling comfortable that he's not the boom/bust risk the "experts" say. His floor starts looking like Dalton, while his ceiling is Favre. Draft him and sit him for the year regardless. Develop him the right way.

 

You're an NFL afterthought until you get the QB, and whichever "elite" non-QB player you draft now, the chances are great that player won't be here in five years while the Bills are still looking for their franchise QB.

There isnt one draft site that has Mahomes as the top QB. What makes you so confident he will transition to the pro game so well that you are willing to spend a top ten pick on him?

[C.Biscuit97]

Trade back for sure. By most accounts this is a weak QB class and none are ready to play yet. If one of the top safties drops you take him at 10.

How often do we have to see how awful "experts" are at projecting qbs to stop trusting them?

 

If the Bills and their coaches believe there is a franchise changing qb, you draft him. Then, you develop him better than giving him some garbage college OC as his rookie year OC and qb coach.

[Dr. Who]

There isnt one draft site that has Mahomes as the top QB. What makes you so confident he will transition to the pro game so well that you are willing to spend a top ten pick on him?

His initial post indicates that he thinks his floor is Dalton and his ceiling is Favre. If you think that, you are probably willing to spend a top ten pick on him.

Consensus doesn't really matter, though I suspect a number of teams have a higher valuation on Mahomes than they are going to express in public.

Getting it right matters. Mahomes is not without risk, but no-risk qbs go first overall. Folks will have different criteria on risk-reward. I roll the dice on the fella.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

Draft the franchise QB.

 

 

is there one in this draft?

 

 

I believe there isn't but that's like saying there is. who can say with absolute certainty? I can't. drafting players has always been a crap shoot and they may take their chances on a QB but then again, they may wait until next year?

 

 

20 days and counting...

[Kirby Jackson]

His initial post indicates that he thinks his floor is Dalton and his ceiling is Favre. If you think that, you are probably willing to spend a top ten pick on him.

Consensus doesn't really matter, though I suspect a number of teams have a higher valuation on Mahomes than they are going to express in public.

Getting it right matters. Mahomes is not without risk, but no-risk qbs go first overall. Folks will have different criteria on risk-reward. I roll the dice on the fella.

I certainly would take issue with "the floor being Dalton." If his floor was Dalton and ceiling Favre he would 100% be the top pick in the draft. They are talking about Dalton as Trubisky's ceiling and he may very well be the first QB taken. Dalton is a pretty good starting QB.

 

I don't take as much issue with his massive upside but his floor is EJ. He has some flaws and comes from the Air Raid system.

[jeffismagic]

 

 

is there one in this draft?

 

 

I believe there isn't but that's like saying there is. who can say with absolute certainty? I can't. drafting players has always been a crap shoot and they may take their chances on a QB but then again, they may wait until next year?

 

 

20 days and counting...

Bills Pravda Jon Murphy trying to sell fans on another defense first draft. Yes, there are QBs in this draft with franchise potential. The idea of waiting for the perfect draft class is hilarious. The best draft class of the last two decades happened and the Bills missed on all 3 QBs and had to settle for QB 4, JP Losman. I'm tired of an organization this clueless.

 

Steelers, Giants, Chiefs all looking hard at QB. Bills are better at QB evaluation than these teams?

[C.Biscuit97]

The reason is because there are so many more high end prospects. Some will improve their stock and others will regress. By the time the draft starts next year maybe Josh Allen is the guy? Or Mason Rudolph? Or Luke Falk? Or Jake Browning?

 

The other reason is that every draft pick is a gamble. QBs are always going to get pushed up the board. If we were taking a guy at 10 this year, he by most accounts, won't be one of the 20 best players in this draft (according to grades). That doesn't mean that he won't pan out. If you were to take a QB at 10 next year, there are probably 3 players today at QB that are considered top 10 players in the 2018 draft. We know a lot can change from year to year but some drafts are better at some positions than others. It isn't a "wait until next year" as much as it is "get the best value." This is a GREAT year to need DBs and a lousy year to need OL. Next year appears to be a very strong QB class. It can always change but with the depth of the group it would be nearly impossible for it to be a lesser class than this. This QB class is okay (better than 2013 & maybe a little worse than 2014). Next year's class looks to be top heavy like 2015 and deep like 2004.

 

You can't draft 1st round QBs 2 years in a row. You just can't. You can't let Pro Bowl players pass while you keep trying guys out. You probably can't even do it every 2 years. In the salary cap era you need some of your better players to be on their rookie deals.

If Bills draft the next Brady, Dak, Russell Wilson, Romo, Carr, or countless other qbs the "experts" were wrong about, do we care that we missed out on the next Reggie Nelson?

 

There are millions of dbs. It's actually one of the few positions that the Bills are good at scouting. We took George Wilson from wr and made him into a good S.

 

And why can't you take a qb high next year? the money is not nearly the same and it trumiphs every other position. The Panthers took Clausen (who I hated) in the 2nd and drafted Cam #1 overall (who Mayock had behind Blaine Gabbert!!! And he's one of the best) the next year.

 

We need to stop pretending like it's ok to barely get 200 yard passing every game in a league that begs you to pass. For too long, the Bills are happy with 6s (Fitz and Tyrod), or 4 or 5s that have some 10 qualities (JP and EJ) or passed around old 5s (Orton). Let's get a 10 and don't stop trying until we do. And guess what? There will be another S or CB there next year and they look much better playing for a team with a big time qb instead of trying to hold onto a lead after the offense goes 3 and out 7 times in a row in the Miami heat!

Bills Pravda Jon Murphy trying to sell fans on another defense first draft. Yes, there are QBs in this draft with franchise potential. The idea of waiting for the perfect draft class is hilarious. The best draft class of the last two decades happened and the Bills missed on all 3 QBs and had to settle for QB 4, JP Losman. I'm tired of an organization this clueless.

 

Steelers, Giants, Chiefs all looking hard at QB. Bills are better at QB evaluation than these teams?

Agree. It's why I never minded the EJ pick. They traded down and got their choice of a qb. Now, EJ wasn't the right guy and their development of him was a joke but at least they took a shot.

 

But I'm sure people will say that Tyrod is good enough and make excuses like the defense wasn't good enough & everyone is hurt and ignore the opening day against Baltimore.

 

Shooters shoot. And if they miss, they shot again.

[BillsfanAZ]

How often do we have to see how awful "experts" are at projecting qbs to stop trusting them?

 

If the Bills and their coaches believe there is a franchise changing qb, you draft him. Then, you develop him better than giving him some garbage college OC as his rookie year OC and qb coach.

I agree with you that if the Bills staff think there is a franchise QB then pick him. Since we dont have access to the the Bills info, we have to go by what the "draft experts" say while watching highlights on our own. Lately it seems interest on the top QB's is waining so maybe the Bills think someone they like will be there in the second round. My opinion is to draft an immediate starter with the tenth pick. Find a QB in other rounds.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Bills Pravda Jon Murphy trying to sell fans on another defense first draft. Yes, there are QBs in this draft with franchise potential. The idea of waiting for the perfect draft class is hilarious. The best draft class of the last two decades happened and the Bills missed on all 3 QBs and had to settle for QB 4, JP Losman. I'm tired of an organization this clueless.

 

Steelers, Giants, Chiefs all looking hard at QB. Bills are better at QB evaluation than these teams?

It might have to do with the rest of the roster, maybe. All 3 of those teams defenses finished in the top half of the league for DVOA, ours was 26th. The Steelers QB publicly considered retirement this offseason, Eli Manning is 36, and Alex Smith is 32.

[C.Biscuit97]

I agree with you that if the Bills staff think there is a franchise QB then pick him. Since we dont have access to the the Bills info, we have to go by what the "draft experts" say while watching highlights on our own. Lately it seems interest on the top QB's is waining so maybe the Bills think someone they like will be there in the second round. My opinion is to draft an immediate starter with the tenth pick. Find a QB in other rounds.

I don't disagree but Watson seems special & there is a ton of game tape to show that. I guess we'll see.

[Dr. Who]

I certainly would take issue with "the floor being Dalton." If his floor was Dalton and ceiling Favre he would 100% be the top pick in the draft. They are talking about Dalton as Trubisky's ceiling and he may very well be the first QB taken. Dalton is a pretty good starting QB.

 

I don't take as much issue with his massive upside but his floor is EJ. He has some flaws and comes from the Air Raid system.

My agreement with 1billsfan has more to do with Mahomes' potential upside. I do not have confidence that his floor is Dalton. I love EJ the person and held out hope for him much longer than most. Mahomes' personality does not seem timid in the least. If EJ had Mahomes' talent, he'd have developed into a good qb, imo -- not great, because like Taylor he is risk averse as a player. Drafting the qb position is perhaps the trickiest in sports and I do think there is a chance Mahomes could bust. There are many safer picks, but I believe we need to be more daring.

[C.Biscuit97]

My agreement with 1billsfan has more to do with Mahomes' potential upside. I do not have confidence that his floor is Dalton. I love EJ the person and held out hope for him much longer than most. Mahomes' personality does not seem timid in the least. If EJ had Mahomes' talent, he'd have developed into a good qb, imo -- not great, because like Taylor he is risk averse as a player. Drafting the qb position is perhaps the trickiest in sports and I do think there is a chance Mahomes could bust. There are many safer picks, but I believe we need to be more daring.

I like this post a lot. I think it's a great point about risk adverse. I always felt like EJ had every physical tool you wanted in a qb but he played like a robot and didn't want to screw up. If you put Fitz' head into EJ's body, it would an all time great qb.

 

I like some things Tyrod does but he is too Alex Smith for me. Smith is definitely a starter in the league but are you really a threat? I haven't studied Mahomes as much but I do believe Watson is more Favre than Smith.

 

And I'd rather have Favre than Smith.

[Kirby Jackson]

If Bills draft the next Brady, Dak, Russell Wilson, Romo, Carr, or countless other qbs the "experts" were wrong about, do we care that we missed out on the next Reggie Nelson?

 

There are millions of dbs. It's actually one of the few positions that the Bills are good at scouting. We took George Wilson from wr and made him into a good S.

 

And why can't you take a qb high next year? the money is not nearly the same and it trumiphs every other position. The Panthers took Clausen (who I hated) in the 2nd and drafted Cam #1 overall (who Mayock had behind Blaine Gabbert!!! And he's one of the best) the next year.

 

We need to stop pretending like it's ok to barely get 200 yard passing every game in a league that begs you to pass. For too long, the Bills are happy with 6s (Fitz and Tyrod), or 4 or 5s that have some 10 qualities (JP and EJ) or passed around old 5s (Orton). Let's get a 10 and don't stop trying until we do. And guess what? There will be another S or CB there next year and they look much better playing for a team with a big time qb instead of trying to hold onto a lead after the offense goes 3 and out 7 times in a row in the Miami heat!

 

Agree. It's why I never minded the EJ pick. They traded down and got their choice of a qb. Now, EJ wasn't the right guy and their development of him was a joke but at least they took a shot.

 

But I'm sure people will say that Tyrod is good enough and make excuses like the defense wasn't good enough & everyone is hurt and ignore the opening day against Baltimore.

 

Shooters shoot. And if they miss, they shot again.

You still hold a certain love for EJ and resentment towards Tyrod that is kind of weird. You went from constantly defending a guy that did nothing because he wasn't given a fair shake to constantly criticizing a guy that is pretty good.

 

In terms of the guys that you mentioned, I have posted on here the likelihood of finding a franchise QB after the top 3. I need to find it but it is like 1 out of 10 or less. (It looks like 1 out of 16 but I can't find the original): http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/191863-to-qb-or-to-not-qb/?p=4234531

 

Just to refresh everyone's memories here are the guys that teams picked (outside of the top 3)in the 1st 2 rounds since 2006: Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Tavares Jackson, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Brohm, Henne, Sanchez, Freeman, Pat White, Tebow, Clausen, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick, Tannehill, Weeden, Osweiler, EJ, Geno, Manziel, Bridgewater, Carr, Jimmy G, Lynch and Hackenberg.

 

We all need to stop talking about Dak, Wilson and Brady like it is the norm. Franchise QBs are found in the top 3, the numbers don't lie. You don't need to just take guys to take them.

Edited April 7, 2017 by Kirby Jackson