KGun12TD Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 If that scenario is there we may be able to trade back twice and still get a good player and more picks!
BarleyNY Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 Problem is EVERYBODY wants to trade back. Finding a team to do that is not going to be easy. https://www.profootballfocus.com/draft-daily-why-we-likely-wont-see-many-first-round-trades/?utm_content=buffer39320&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl Hers a PFF article that covers that very thing. It's a very, very deep and flat draft past Garrett and maybe one or two others. Isn't that what the OP suggested...He found at least 2 QB needy teams that might be trading partners...What is the problem with that. No one is saying that a trade back from 10 is impossible, but it's looking very unlikely. In the event you can gain additional ammunition in the first 3 rounds of this draft - or premium future picks - yes, you do it. Just don't bank in it. I don't know if the team has given any of them a 1st round grade. If so, sure, take that guy. But I think that's questionable at this point based on what I've seen in the media. I certainly wouldn't reach for any of them. I'm so with you. This isn't the draft to squander premium picks.
Like A Mofo Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 Problem is EVERYBODY wants to trade back. Finding a team to do that is not going to be easy. Noooooo its easy because someone makes a mock and makes it so
billspro Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 Draft a QB for sure. There are not many chances to get your pick of any QB in the class. This isn't 2013 where you are taking a 3rd round prospect in the 1st round. The top four guys are legit 1st-early second round prospects, there is a franchise QB in this draft.
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 Me personally I stick to my guns and draft Watson. But it really depends how you feel about each of these QBs. Agree 100%. You don't pass on a potential franchise qb for a S or some low impact position. That's why we are are a below franchise. It's the move we always do. Next year's qbs are better (they always are).
Kirby Jackson Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 I am starting to think that no QB goes off the board in the top 9. I don't think any QB is worthy of going in the top 9. I would start calling Arizona & Houston and trying to get them into that 10th slot. If you could get Houston's 2018 first and a 2nd or 3rd this year it would be a home run. The 2018 QB draft IS a better QB draft. I don't think that is even debatable. It has higher end talent (at least today) and will be much deeper (no matter what).
mjt328 Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 The Bills need to do their homework on every QB prospect. If another franchise quarterback slides past them (like Derek Carr or Dak Prescott), I think Doug Whaley and the rest of the scouting staff should be replaced. With that said... If the Bills don't like any of the prospects, I definitely think they should do everything in their power to trade down.
The Jokeman Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 Problem is EVERYBODY wants to trade back. Finding a team to do that is not going to be easy. The Texans might be up for it. Yet not sure they have the picks to move up unless we take some late ones this year or a conditional 2018 pick.
Kirby Jackson Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 The Texans might be up for it. Yet not sure they have the picks to move up unless we take some late ones this year or a conditional 2018 pick. Their 2018 first should be our target. Let them come up and get their QB. The Bills will go into 2018 with (probably) a top 15 (ish) pick and a top 25 (ish) pick (at worst). They can go up and get their QB.
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 I am starting to think that no QB goes off the board in the top 9. I don't think any QB is worthy of going in the top 9. I would start calling Arizona & Houston and trying to get them into that 10th slot. If you could get Houston's 2018 first and a 2nd or 3rd this year it would be a home run. The 2018 QB draft IS a better QB draft. I don't think that is even debatable. It has higher end talent (at least today) and will be much deeper (no matter what). I respect your opinion a lot Kirby and I get that it appears to look that way, but given how Qbs develop, how can you possibly make a definitive claim like this? What if Darnold with a full season of tape on him regresses badly? Or Rosen struggles with injuries again? Or defenses just taken away Jackson's run game and he struggles to win games with his arms? I'm so sick of this wait until next year stuff. What if, and this might be crazy, the guy who smoked Alabama back to back years in the championship is the best qb of the next 2 draft classes? And even if you draft him, why can't you draft a guy next year? It's one of the reasons I thought re-signing Tyrod was spinning your wheels. The Bills got his price down so much I understand but I think we are better long term playing a young guy who sinks or swims and possibly tanking for a great draft pick for this supposedly great qb class.
Alphadawg7 Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 A or C...whatever you do, DONT take the QB at 10. There is a reason that many QB needy teams ahead of us would have passed on them and there are some great prospects at 10 for us that are bigger needs at positions we don't even have a starter. If we can trade back a few spots, that would be great.
jeffismagic Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 A or C...whatever you do, DONT take the QB at 10. There is a reason that many QB needy teams ahead of us would have passed on them and there are some great prospects at 10 for us that are bigger needs at positions we don't even have a starter. If we can trade back a few spots, that would be great. Absolutely. Let's just extend Tyrod for another 5 years and be done with it.
rayray808 Posted April 7, 2017 Author Posted April 7, 2017 my opinion: if no QB is taken by #9 it really comes down to our scouts/GM getting first crack at guessing who the franchise QB is from the group. I am confident that one exists in this batch, and it is up to us to FINALLY guess right. If you do, playoff drought ends. If you guess wrong? Well, that is when the owners need to decide if you are a right fit for the job or not. Getting "first dibs" on guessing (all drafts are a guess) who the franchise guy is at the QB position is very rare and usually up to the team who holds the #1 pick. Even at 10, if no QB is taken, then theoretically itʻs as if we are a team who needs a QB and has the first pick in the draft. Even if you are on the "wait until next years draft, there are better QBʻs" you are still going to be guessing at which one is better and most likely wonʻt get the first crack at taking the guy you feel is best. With that said, we all have our guesses on who the franchise guy could be and the logic is usually based on the following: Go with the guy who wins big games, and has proved it on the big stage = Deshaun Watson Go with the guy who passes the eye test and seems like the safest bet = Mitch Trubisky Go with the guy who seems to have that "it" factor aka the wild card = Pat Mahomes I am fine with either because I see the positive in all three options. However if my job was on the line? I go with the guy whom I watched square up against an Alabama defense that was filled with first round prospects and win a national title doing so. I have him sit a year behind Tyrod and watch a QB with similar skills run an offense and learn. If we have a winning season next year then good for us, and good for Deshaun as he can continue to learn. If the wheels start falling off towards the end of the season I slowly plug in Watson at QB and cut ties with Tyrod at the end of the year. Next years first round pick can now be used to move our new team forward with our new QB.
jeffismagic Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 my opinion: if no QB is taken by #9 it really comes down to our scouts/GM getting first crack at guessing who the franchise QB is from the group. I am confident that one exists in this batch, and it is up to us to FINALLY guess right. If you do, playoff drought ends. If you guess wrong? Well, that is when the owners need to decide if you are a right fit for the job or not. Getting "first dibs" on guessing (all drafts are a guess) who the franchise guy is at the QB position is very rare and usually up to the team who holds the #1 pick. Even at 10, if no QB is taken, then theoretically itʻs as if we are a team who needs a QB and has the first pick in the draft. Even if you are on the "wait until next years draft, there are better QBʻs" you are still going to be guessing at which one is better and most likely wonʻt get the first crack at taking the guy you feel is best. With that said, we all have our guesses on who the franchise guy could be and the logic is usually based on the following: Go with the guy who wins big games, and has proved it on the big stage = Deshaun Watson Go with the guy who passes the eye test and seems like the safest bet = Mitch Trubisky Go with the guy who seems to have that "it" factor aka the wild card = Pat Mahomes I am fine with either because I see the positive in all three options. However if my job was on the line? I go with the guy whom I watched square up against an Alabama defense that was filled with first round prospects and win a national title doing so. I have him sit a year behind Tyrod and watch a QB with similar skills run an offense and learn. If we have a winning season next year then good for us, and good for Deshaun as he can continue to learn. If the wheels start falling off towards the end of the season I slowly plug in Watson at QB and cut ties with Tyrod at the end of the year. Next years first round pick can now be used to move our new team forward with our new QB. This class is starting to look like 2014. One franchise QB, one good starter, one marginal starter and one QB who can't play in the NFL for the top 4.
rayray808 Posted April 7, 2017 Author Posted April 7, 2017 This class is starting to look like 2014. One franchise QB, one good starter, one marginal starter and one QB who can't play in the NFL for the top 4. Totally agree! 2014: Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Carr, Garropollo Bortles: one great season, one bad season - jury still out but potential to remain a starter in the league Manziel: off season issues were red flags from the jump Bridgewater: was starting to gain momentum in the league but awful injury in practice derailed that Carr: arrows pointing up, incredible season Garropollo: high value now, small sample size, on a Super Bowl team so tough to call Letʻs say we are at 10 when these guys came out and none were drafted. Using my logic above here is how they would rank: Go with the guy who wins big games, and has proved it on the big stage = Terry Bridgewater Go with the guy who passes the eye test and seems like the safest bet = Blake Bortles Go with the guy who seems to have that "it" factor aka the wild card = Johny Manziel (looking at on field performance only) I personally would have drafted Terry Bridgewater at 10, and if you take away the fluke injury at practice I think our team would be in a good place right now with him at QB. Obviously in hindsight waiting and grabbing Carr in the second round would be the ideal move but that would be a stretch and not really hold ground to this convo of the 1st round QB dilemma.
Kirby Jackson Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 (edited) I respect your opinion a lot Kirby and I get that it appears to look that way, but given how Qbs develop, how can you possibly make a definitive claim like this? What if Darnold with a full season of tape on him regresses badly? Or Rosen struggles with injuries again? Or defenses just taken away Jackson's run game and he struggles to win games with his arms? I'm so sick of this wait until next year stuff. What if, and this might be crazy, the guy who smoked Alabama back to back years in the championship is the best qb of the next 2 draft classes? And even if you draft him, why can't you draft a guy next year? It's one of the reasons I thought re-signing Tyrod was spinning your wheels. The Bills got his price down so much I understand but I think we are better long term playing a young guy who sinks or swims and possibly tanking for a great draft pick for this supposedly great qb class. The reason is because there are so many more high end prospects. Some will improve their stock and others will regress. By the time the draft starts next year maybe Josh Allen is the guy? Or Mason Rudolph? Or Luke Falk? Or Jake Browning? The other reason is that every draft pick is a gamble. QBs are always going to get pushed up the board. If we were taking a guy at 10 this year, he by most accounts, won't be one of the 20 best players in this draft (according to grades). That doesn't mean that he won't pan out. If you were to take a QB at 10 next year, there are probably 3 players today at QB that are considered top 10 players in the 2018 draft. We know a lot can change from year to year but some drafts are better at some positions than others. It isn't a "wait until next year" as much as it is "get the best value." This is a GREAT year to need DBs and a lousy year to need OL. Next year appears to be a very strong QB class. It can always change but with the depth of the group it would be nearly impossible for it to be a lesser class than this. This QB class is okay (better than 2013 & maybe a little worse than 2014). Next year's class looks to be top heavy like 2015 and deep like 2004. You can't draft 1st round QBs 2 years in a row. You just can't. You can't let Pro Bowl players pass while you keep trying guys out. You probably can't even do it every 2 years. In the salary cap era you need some of your better players to be on their rookie deals. Edited April 7, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
Dr. Who Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 I draft the qb. My order of preference: Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky. If you think one of the available qbs is a franchise qb, why wouldn't you draft them? It's the most important position in today's NFL. It doesn't matter how strong or weak the 2018 class is in that case. The people who are passing on the qb just don't think highly of any of them. This is not 2013 redux imo. The reason is because there are so many more high end prospects. Some will improve their stock and others will regress. By the time the draft starts next year maybe Josh Allen is the guy? Or Mason Rudolph? Or Luke Falk? Or Jake Browning? The other reason is that every draft pick is a gamble. QBs are always going to get pushed up the board. If we were taking a guy at 10 this year, he by most accounts, won't be one of the 20 best players in this draft (according to grades). That doesn't mean that he won't pan out. If you were to take a QB at 10 next year, there are probably 3 players today at QB that are considered top 10 players in the 2018 draft. We know a lot can change from year to year but some drafts are better at some positions than others. It isn't a "wait until next year" as much as it is "get the best value." This is a GREAT year to need DBs and a lousy year to need OL. Next year appears to be a very string QB class. It can always change but with the depth of the group it would be nearly impossible for it to be a lesser class than this. This QB class is okay (better than 2013 & maybe a little worse than 2014). Next year's class looks to be top heavy like 2015 and deep like 2004. You can't draft 1st round QBs 2 years in a row. You just can't. You can't let Pro Bowl players pass while you keep trying guys out. You probably can't even do it every 2 years. In the salary cap era you need some of your better players to be on their rookie deals. Depth at DB means you can get a good one in the second round, no?
Kirby Jackson Posted April 7, 2017 Posted April 7, 2017 (edited) I draft the qb. My order of preference: Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky. If you think one of the available qbs is a franchise qb, why wouldn't you draft them? It's the most important position in today's NFL. It doesn't matter how strong or weak the 2018 class is in that case. The people who are passing on the qb just don't think highly of any of them. This is not 2013 redux imo. Depth at DB means you can get a good one in the second round, no? It does. What it means is you can get a guy at 44 this year that may have went 24 in a different draft. The flip side you may take an OL at 44 that would have went 64 in a different draft. This is a good year to need DBs for sure (and we do). Bandit or Gunner has like 27 DBs in the top 100 players. Edited April 7, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
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