Trying the ol' process of elimination re: the draft

[KollegeStudnet]

I do believe the backup QB spot needs to get stronger. Have nothing against Jones, but would love to see competition at that position. Still see the Bills going with Defense with the first pick and Peppers the likely candidate.

[HT02]

The potential impact that OJ Howard could have on the offense trumps everyone else, I think.

 

I agree with your summary. He's super talented and also seems like a culture fit.

 

With him as the pick, they'd bolster both the passing and running game. Tyrod (as well as the QB who eventually replaces him) need to be surrounded by weapons in order to consistently score enough to win games.

I agree with you on most points but I have two issues A) We have a pretty good tight end already who was open quite a bit. 2) Our likely starting QB for next year couldn't/wouldn't throw to him. If the Bills take Howard it will remind me of the decision to take Spiller #3 despite having Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch on the roster, Remember reading about how "although those guys are good, Spiller is a can't miss/all-time talent"

Edited April 4, 2017 by HT02

[LeGOATski]

As much as I hate to say it, I feel like our 1st round pick absolutely should NOT be Howard. TT can't throw over the middle. As long as he's the QB, we'd be wasting any elite talent at TE, because TT can't/won't throw there. Just look at Clay. He's an athletic TE who can block, run, get flexed out to WR, he's versatile, essentially everything you're saying about Howard, and is probably a top 5-10 TE, talent-wise, and his stats end up looking like a middling TE. Picking up a second one? Unless you consider this a rebuilding year, with a look to the future, and plan on drafting a QB high next year, Howard would be a waste.

Its about more than individual numbers. Clay contributed greatly to a productive offense. Howard would, too. With both on the field, defenses would be constantly guessing. At the same time, it gives the Bills a numbers advantage in the run game, which increases big plays for McCoy or Tyrod.

[LeGOATski]

I agree with you on most points but I have two issues A) We have a pretty good tight end already who was open quite a bit. 2) Our likely starting QB for next year couldn't/wouldn't throw to him. If the Bills take Howard it will remind me of the decision to take Spiller #3 despite having Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch on the roster, Remember reading about how "although those guys are good, Spiller is a can't miss/all-time talent"

It's not quite the same because Clay and Howard, as a pair, are more versatile. You can have them on the field simultaneously more often and they can spread out the defense more than any RB could.

 

Spiller and Jackson were strictly RBs and played with no really talented WRs/TEs. Stevie and Chandler were the best they ever had.

 

Clay/Howard combined with McCoy/Tyrod (not to mention Watkins), on the other hand, is so much more dynamic.

[2003Contenders]

The way I look at it, the Bills are in a pretty good spot picking 10th (as long as they don't do anything foolish). The Bills need to be agile and ready for anything, rather than zeroing in on a specific target. Given the various holes they have, this draft should line up perfectly for them to grab someone that can contribute right away. Also, this draft appears to have quality depth, where there is not much separating the 15th ranked player from, say, the 50th. That is why I would love to trade down and pick up an extra 2nd if the opportunity presents itself.

 

I know everyone has their own rankings, but just a cursory glance of players I would be comfortable with at #10:

 

Garrett

Thomas

Lattimore

Hooker

Adams

Allen

Howard

R. Foster

H. Reddick

Taco Charleton

M. Williams

C.Davis

 

That is 12 players -- minus any QBs that could go in the top 9. Also, there is always a team in the top 10 that makes a selection out of left field. I would love to see -- if, say, 3-4 of these players are still on the board at 10 -- the Bills trade down with a team like the Titans or Bucs who are supposedly infatuated with Mike Williams.

Edited April 4, 2017 by 2003Contenders

[John from Riverside]

I agree, and with Tyrod being a runner he might not finish the season so we end up with CJ and a late rounder to finish the season with so this team is dead in the water. If they move on from Tyrod after this season we will have nothing but CJ as a starter since the other QB would be a late rounder needing tons of work still. If they draft a top pick from 2018 he would be very vanilla or another journeyman wont sell tickets. It puts us in the exact same spot of QB need and this team a waste of space once again. Smart move in my opinion is to snag one of the top QBs this season. Im all in on DW @10 if Cleveland doesn't screw it up for us.

Filling your team with late rounders would have us set up for a top pick in 2018. IMO they need to stay right where they are and just pick trading back is just wasting picks IMO

I agree, Tyrod can't see who we have now why have more sitting wide open

Pretty much everybody? I don't agree that these QBs are that bad at all.

Nobody knows about the QBs that come out any year it's a crap shoot every draft unless they are a Manning/Luck.

DW to draft DW @10 Is my hope.

Well yeah but your not a draft pundit.....

[mjt328]

I certainly wouldn't rule out an OT.

One of our first targets in Free Agency was Ricky Wagner. We later brought in Andre Smith for a visit, before finally settling to bring back Jordan Mills.

There was also a report that the Bills have done a pre-draft visit with Cam Robinson, who is considered the top tackle prospect and a 1st Round Pick.

 

Besides that, I pretty much agree with your list.

 

I believe our 1st Round Pick will be a WR, TE, OT, LB or CB.

Which still doesn't narrow it down much.

Edited April 4, 2017 by mjt328

[ajmac]

After looking at the Bills depth for all positions, I believe the most glairing need based on depth is at OLB, with CB coming in at a close second, and DE coming in at a distant third. WR, Safety, and RT have a lot of depth, but still have question marks.

 

Within the draft, I really don't see a lot of depth at LB in the later rounds that would produce a possible day 1 starter. That would be my # 1 need since we have two starting OLBs that are career special teams aces. DB is stacked this year, and I believe we can find a day 1 starter / contributor in the later rounds. DE is set with their two starters, but lack serious depth in a scheme that requires a lot of subbing in and out. Fortunately there is some solid depth here as well that we can address in the later rounds as well. We have projected starters, and projected backups for WR, S, and RT, but seriously lack the guy we truly desire so I could see us making a play on either one of these positions early in the draft. With this being said, here is my prediction for the upcoming draft.

 

1-10: Trade to Browns for 1-12, 4-108, 5-175 (Browns take Deshaun Watson)

1-12: Bills take OLB Ha'ason Reddick (With his athleticism, he'll fit any scheme. I project him to play the "Will" but will rush the passer often)

2-44: Bills take TE Evan Engram (Will be primarily a move TE with Clay / O'Leary filling most blocking duties)

3-75: Bills take CB Shaquill Griffin (Could start day 1. Physical, long armed, tackling CB)

4-108: Bills take DE Dawuane Smoot (More of a run defending DE, but would be thrown in rotation immediately)

5-156: Bills take WR Robert Davis (Had a great combine, but lacked production in college. Will play a role on special teams)

5-171 Bills take CB Brian Allen (Another combine freak. Could push for playing time, but needs a lot of work)

5-175 Bills take WR Levonte "Kermit" Whitfield (Kermit provides insurance to Listenbee, and is also a great return man)

6-195 Bills take OL Jerry Ugokwe (McDermott likes this kids potential as well as the school he comes from)

 

Well there you have it. As you can see there are no QBs taken this year, but the Bills will surely add one via free agency after the draft. The Bills will also sign a few more pass rushers and LBs as well.

 

GO BILLS!

Not bad man...and I could see something very close to that happening. My worries are only, where are we going to get our LBs at?? We need at least two more of decent quality if we draft only one. I think we need two LB's two DB's and one decent offensive weapon and one rotational OL prospect. If we trade down, and I do see that almost as a must if we can find someone, we will need a special teams contributor. I know we have some depth here on the team.

[Captain_Quint]

Love this topic ... LB is a big concern, so I would understand if they traded down and picked up one later in the first round. I worry about CB and corner depth, but I think help could come from choices as late as Round 4 or Round 5. I hope we stay at #10 and take OJ Howard. Can you imagine the sets they could trot out with him, Clay Watkins, Holmes, Shady out of the backfield? Add in Tolbert as a receiving threat and Philly Brown in the slot and it could be a real nightmare for opposing defenses. I think OJ Howard makes the biggest impact at #10.

Indira gandhi's thong. Is that like the Shah's spleen?

[ROONDOGG55]

Not bad man...and I could see something very close to that happening. My worries are only, where are we going to get our LBs at?? We need at least two more of decent quality if we draft only one. I think we need two LB's two DB's and one decent offensive weapon and one rotational OL prospect. If we trade down, and I do see that almost as a must if we can find someone, we will need a special teams contributor. I know we have some depth here on the team.

I really wanted to pick up another LB and almost slotted Miami's LB Jermaine Grace in for one of the later 5th round selections. I decided not to with all of his issues off the field. I am almost positive McDermott will stay far away from guys like that, unless they are already on the roster. I do see us adding a few after the draft by way of undrafted FA(s) as well a veteran or two. Will be interesting to see what actually happens later this month.

[blacklabel]

Thank you for the great responses, everyone. I really appreciate it. Some good stuff here.

 

To those (or the one guy) really worried about Zach Brown's departure, I wouldn't fret. Yes, he had an excellent first half of the season, he was all over the field, blowing up running plays, forcing turnovers, tackling machine, etc. However, as the season went on he became more and more invisible. This is just speculation on my part but when you put the pieces together it seems pretty plausible. I believe as the season wore on, Rex continually lost more and more guys on the defensive side of the ball. The communication, substitutions, play call changes, etc. all of that stuff should have improved as the season went on but it actually got worse. I attribute this to guys checking out mentally and some (Brown included) checking out physically, and by that I mean, playing not to get hurt. Watch him during the last half of the season, he's in full-on self-preservation mode. I'm speculating that more and more defenders bailed on Rex's system, guys probably went off-script and since Rex is not very good with accountability, more guys likely checked out as they realized those who were already checked out weren't receiving any kind of reprimands. Brown was on a one-year deal, he felt like his first 8-9 games would be enough to cash in during free agency but right out of the gate his agency over-valued him which led to him hiring a new agent and finally procuring a deal almost a month into free agency. He's a fine player, but as I said in another thread, none of the losses they incurred in FA are irreplaceable guys. I love Robert Woods as a player, he has great character, he's a team-first guy but you can't blame him for leaving, especially if he was told by LA that they plan on throwing the ball a lot more than it was thrown during his time here.

 

As for the other losses, I was definitely a Gilmore fan and believe he played well during his tenure here. I do believe the injuries he suffered early in his career affected him mentally more than anything and I think this is why he became a below-average tackler. He was prone to lapses at times but so is every other corner in the league. Also, never discount the fact how many times some of these guys have had changes at their position coach, coordinator and defensive scheme. When you're having to learn a new system almost every year, it can get confusing. Of course, there'll be a crowd of people who will say, "He's a professional being paid millions, he shouldn't make mistakes." But that's just silliness. Yeah, they're professionals and yes they're paid well but far too often I think too many fans forget that these athletes are human just like us. Nobody is excluded from making mistakes.

 

Some of you talked about trading down and I'm certainly on that wagon this year. With only six picks and a number of holes to fill I think it'd be in their best interest to try and gain some extra picks. At ten, though, they are in a good position to come away with a very good player, no matter the position. It'll just depend on how the board will fall but if they stay at ten they're going to get a solid player. Just today Daniel Jeremiah (one of my favorite draft guys) put up his latest mock and he had the board fall so that Buffalo wound up with Jamal Adams at ten. Surely some will object, I don't think I've ever seen a 100% consensus among the fans but Adams is exactly the type of player McDermott would want. So while I'm all for them trading to acquire more picks, I'd say it'd have to be a pretty sweet deal to move off the ten spot, and how far down would they wanna go? Plus, they have to find a dance partner willing to move up. Easier said than done. If I had to bet (which I don't because I never win and at a casino I'd rather go throw quarters down the toilet because every so often it'll back up and I'll feel like a winner) I'd say they make moves in the second and third rounds. Just a hunch, though.

 

And for those against drafting Howard based on the lack of Clay's involvement last season, eh, again, not something I worry about that much. Clay was much more involved over the last 5 or 6 games and keep in mind how much practice time Clay misses due to numerous nagging injuries. Practice is where you gel and find your chemistry with your QB and implement your plans from week to week. If you're not able to get out there in practice and get on the same page with your teammates it's gonna make it that much more difficult to get involved on Sundays. I like Clay, I think he's a good player, but I don't think he plays out his entire deal here. Even when he was signed we saw that he came with somewhat of a "buyer beware" tag due to his knees needing procedures consistently. And then last season he struggled with his back and (I think?) hip. He's a gamer to go out there banged up every Sunday but missing a lot of practice time definitely impacted his game and involvement. And Howard just gives any QB a massive target to throw to. You don't need pinpoint accuracy with him, you just need "area code" accuracy (just get the ball within his range) and he'll have a good chance at coming down with it. He gives you more versatility than a receiver alone can, as I said, he can be lined up in a variety of spots and has a very well-rounded skill set. They'd find ways to get him involved. And if you put him, Watkins, McCoy and Clay all on the field at the same time, defenses will have to pick their poison, leaving one of those guys available to make plays. I dunno. Sometimes I think, especially in this, the information age, we tend to over-think and over-analyze. When I watch Howard I see a really good football player, plain and simple.

 

Again, really appreciate the good discussion. I'm a BBMB transplant so I'm still getting my footing on this board but it certainly provides the best outlet for Bills talk considering the comment sections on the Bills Facebook pages are just abysmal.

Edited April 5, 2017 by blacklabel

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

It all depends on who falls, If a Jonathan Allen or Solomon Thomas are there for us even though we have Jerry Hughes and SHaq Lawson I would have to believe they would be the best player available for us.

[HT02]

It's not quite the same because Clay and Howard, as a pair, are more versatile. You can have them on the field simultaneously more often and they can spread out the defense more than any RB could.

 

Spiller and Jackson were strictly RBs and played with no really talented WRs/TEs. Stevie and Chandler were the best they ever had.

 

Clay/Howard combined with McCoy/Tyrod (not to mention Watkins), on the other hand, is so much more dynamic.

My concern remains that Tyrod hasn't used the TE we already have who was wide open on a number of occasions. As far as being on the field at the same time I don't see many teams, including the Patriots using a lot of double TE formations in the wide open passing era, We also heard a lot about how Spiller and Jackson would be used creatively on the field at the same time. I'm not sold on using the first round pick to build depth,

[LeGOATski]

 

And for those against drafting Howard based on the lack of Clay's involvement last season, eh, again, not something I worry about that much. Clay was much more involved over the last 5 or 6 games and keep in mind how much practice time Clay misses due to numerous nagging injuries. Practice is where you gel and find your chemistry with your QB and implement your plans from week to week. If you're not able to get out there in practice and get on the same page with your teammates it's gonna make it that much more difficult to get involved on Sundays. I like Clay, I think he's a good player, but I don't think he plays out his entire deal here. Even when he was signed we saw that he came with somewhat of a "buyer beware" tag due to his knees needing procedures consistently. And then last season he struggled with his back and (I think?) hip. He's a gamer to go out there banged up every Sunday but missing a lot of practice time definitely impacted his game and involvement. And Howard just gives any QB a massive target to throw to. You don't need pinpoint accuracy with him, you just need "area code" accuracy (just get the ball within his range) and he'll have a good chance at coming down with it. He gives you more versatility than a receiver alone can, as I said, he can be lined up in a variety of spots and has a very well-rounded skill set. They'd find ways to get him involved. And if you put him, Watkins, McCoy and Clay all on the field at the same time, defenses will have to pick their poison, leaving one of those guys available to make plays. I dunno. Sometimes I think, especially in this, the information age, we tend to over-think and over-analyze. When I watch Howard I see a really good football player, plain and simple.

The lack of faith in Tyrod seems to blur people's strategic vision. He doesn't need to improve in order for Howard to be a valuable asset.

 

There's also the idea that the Bills should be stockpiling young talent for when they do find a franchise QB. Chances are that they'll be in a good position to draft Josh Allen or Luke Falk next year.

[NewEra]

Thank you for the great responses, everyone. I really appreciate it. Some good stuff here.

 

To those (or the one guy) really worried about Zach Brown's departure, I wouldn't fret. Yes, he had an excellent first half of the season, he was all over the field, blowing up running plays, forcing turnovers, tackling machine, etc. However, as the season went on he became more and more invisible. This is just speculation on my part but when you put the pieces together it seems pretty plausible. I believe as the season wore on, Rex continually lost more and more guys on the defensive side of the ball. The communication, substitutions, play call changes, etc. all of that stuff should have improved as the season went on but it actually got worse. I attribute this to guys checking out mentally and some (Brown included) checking out physically, and by that I mean, playing not to get hurt. Watch him during the last half of the season, he's in full-on self-preservation mode. I'm speculating that more and more defenders bailed on Rex's system, guys probably went off-script and since Rex is not very good with accountability, more guys likely checked out as they realized those who were already checked out weren't receiving any kind of reprimands. Brown was on a one-year deal, he felt like his first 8-9 games would be enough to cash in during free agency but right out of the gate his agency over-valued him which led to him hiring a new agent and finally procuring a deal almost a month into free agency. He's a fine player, but as I said in another thread, none of the losses they incurred in FA are irreplaceable guys. I love Robert Woods as a player, he has great character, he's a team-first guy but you can't blame him for leaving, especially if he was told by LA that they plan on throwing the ball a lot more than it was thrown during his time here.

 

As for the other losses, I was definitely a Gilmore fan and believe he played well during his tenure here. I do believe the injuries he suffered early in his career affected him mentally more than anything and I think this is why he became a below-average tackler. He was prone to lapses at times but so is every other corner in the league. Also, never discount the fact how many times some of these guys have had changes at their position coach, coordinator and defensive scheme. When you're having to learn a new system almost every year, it can get confusing. Of course, there'll be a crowd of people who will say, "He's a professional being paid millions, he shouldn't make mistakes." But that's just silliness. Yeah, they're professionals and yes they're paid well but far too often I think too many fans forget that these athletes are human just like us. Nobody is excluded from making mistakes.

 

Some of you talked about trading down and I'm certainly on that wagon this year. With only six picks and a number of holes to fill I think it'd be in their best interest to try and gain some extra picks. At ten, though, they are in a good position to come away with a very good player, no matter the position. It'll just depend on how the board will fall but if they stay at ten they're going to get a solid player. Just today Daniel Jeremiah (one of my favorite draft guys) put up his latest mock and he had the board fall so that Buffalo wound up with Jamal Adams at ten. Surely some will object, I don't think I've ever seen a 100% consensus among the fans but Adams is exactly the type of player McDermott would want. So while I'm all for them trading to acquire more picks, I'd say it'd have to be a pretty sweet deal to move off the ten spot, and how far down would they wanna go? Plus, they have to find a dance partner willing to move up. Easier said than done. If I had to bet (which I don't because I never win and at a casino I'd rather go throw quarters down the toilet because every so often it'll back up and I'll feel like a winner) I'd say they make moves in the second and third rounds. Just a hunch, though.

 

And for those against drafting Howard based on the lack of Clay's involvement last season, eh, again, not something I worry about that much. Clay was much more involved over the last 5 or 6 games and keep in mind how much practice time Clay misses due to numerous nagging injuries. Practice is where you gel and find your chemistry with your QB and implement your plans from week to week. If you're not able to get out there in practice and get on the same page with your teammates it's gonna make it that much more difficult to get involved on Sundays. I like Clay, I think he's a good player, but I don't think he plays out his entire deal here. Even when he was signed we saw that he came with somewhat of a "buyer beware" tag due to his knees needing procedures consistently. And then last season he struggled with his back and (I think?) hip. He's a gamer to go out there banged up every Sunday but missing a lot of practice time definitely impacted his game and involvement. And Howard just gives any QB a massive target to throw to. You don't need pinpoint accuracy with him, you just need "area code" accuracy (just get the ball within his range) and he'll have a good chance at coming down with it. He gives you more versatility than a receiver alone can, as I said, he can be lined up in a variety of spots and has a very well-rounded skill set. They'd find ways to get him involved. And if you put him, Watkins, McCoy and Clay all on the field at the same time, defenses will have to pick their poison, leaving one of those guys available to make plays. I dunno. Sometimes I think, especially in this, the information age, we tend to over-think and over-analyze. When I watch Howard I see a really good football player, plain and simple.

 

Again, really appreciate the good discussion. I'm a BBMB transplant so I'm still getting my footing on this board but it certainly provides the best outlet for Bills talk considering the comment sections on the Bills Facebook pages are just abysmal.

 

Nice topic and posts BBMBer. You're a good transplant.