Trying the ol' process of elimination re: the draft

[blacklabel]

Over the last two years the Bills have become increasingly tight-lipped about their prospect visits and haven't revealed much of anything in terms of the draft. And that's fine. I don't mind this "one voice" process they're going with. For years they were pretty transparent about things and now they're trying to keep everything super close to the vest.

 

Taking a look at the roster as it is right now, I'm trying to slim down their immediate areas of need. That's not to say they won't draft at these positions but if they do I'm pretty sure it'll be later. That said, I think the only two spots you can rule out an early round pick would be at RB and OL. Most think they could use an upgrade at RT but I think they're going to roll with Mills, Henderson, Kouandjio and even Ducasse as possibilities in that spot. They'll battle for the position during camp. The RB group remains strong with Shady and Gillislee. J. Williams has potential, we'll see how it shakes out, but again, not a position they will look to add to early on.

 

That leaves every other position (aside from special teams) as an option in the early rounds. Breaking it down:

 

QB - I don't see them taking one in the first but if they have any interest in one of the top five or six signal-callers they can't wait any longer than the third round where someone like Nate Peterman might still be available.

 

WR - It's no secret that everyone feels a need for another solid wideout to take attention away from Watkins. For a while, I've thought it'd make sense to add an offensive playmaker early on since the draft isn't quite as deep with offensive talent as it is with defensive.

 

TE - They're said to be high on OJ Howard and personally, he's one of my favorite players in the draft. He exemplifies the type of player McDermott wants in terms of his character, team-first mentality, his willingness to excel in all areas of his position and his off-field life is clean. I certainly think he's in play for them in the first round. He gives them more versatility than a receiver since he can be lined up in-line (where he's a great blocker) and can also be lined up in the slot and out wide in certain sets. Versatility and character seem to be two of the most prioritized traits McDermott is looking for and he has both.

 

DL - With them going back to the 4-3 we should see an improvement on the DL. Hughes, Williams and Dareus were great in 2014 and I don't think you'll find any objectors when someone says Lawson is an upgrade over Mario Williams. They could use some depth here but if one of the top DL were to make it to ten (maybe Jonathan Allen because of the injury concerns?) I think it'd be hard for them to pass it up.

 

LB - They could definitely use some help here. I do think McDermott is going to expect Ragland to be his QB on defense but I don't really buy for a second that they're content with Ramon Humber on the outside. Alexander can hopefully keep up his momentum from last season but he's 33 or 34 and is only on a two year deal. Drafting a young, talented LB that can be guided by a true pro like Alexander isn't a bad idea at all. Reuben Foster could be available, but his character concerns might scare them off.

 

DB - I 100% believe that Hyde and Poyer are your day one starters at the safety spots. Depth is needed and barring one of the top safeties sliding down to ten, I don't think they'll go safety in round one. I also don't think they'll go corner in round one because of the excellent depth at the position in this draft.

 

So, with all that in mind, I think the most likely scenario in the first couple rounds will be an offensive playmaker UNLESS a marquee front seven defender becomes available, with additions to the secondary coming in rounds two or three.

 

Thoughts?

[ROONDOGG55]

After looking at the Bills depth for all positions, I believe the most glairing need based on depth is at OLB, with CB coming in at a close second, and DE coming in at a distant third. WR, Safety, and RT have a lot of depth, but still have question marks.

 

Within the draft, I really don't see a lot of depth at LB in the later rounds that would produce a possible day 1 starter. That would be my # 1 need since we have two starting OLBs that are career special teams aces. DB is stacked this year, and I believe we can find a day 1 starter / contributor in the later rounds. DE is set with their two starters, but lack serious depth in a scheme that requires a lot of subbing in and out. Fortunately there is some solid depth here as well that we can address in the later rounds as well. We have projected starters, and projected backups for WR, S, and RT, but seriously lack the guy we truly desire so I could see us making a play on either one of these positions early in the draft. With this being said, here is my prediction for the upcoming draft.

 

1-10: Trade to Browns for 1-12, 4-108, 5-175 (Browns take Deshaun Watson)

1-12: Bills take OLB Ha'ason Reddick (With his athleticism, he'll fit any scheme. I project him to play the "Will" but will rush the passer often)

2-44: Bills take TE Evan Engram (Will be primarily a move TE with Clay / O'Leary filling most blocking duties)

3-75: Bills take CB Shaquill Griffin (Could start day 1. Physical, long armed, tackling CB)

4-108: Bills take DE Dawuane Smoot (More of a run defending DE, but would be thrown in rotation immediately)

5-156: Bills take WR Robert Davis (Had a great combine, but lacked production in college. Will play a role on special teams)

5-171 Bills take CB Brian Allen (Another combine freak. Could push for playing time, but needs a lot of work)

5-175 Bills take WR Levonte "Kermit" Whitfield (Kermit provides insurance to Listenbee, and is also a great return man)

6-195 Bills take OL Jerry Ugokwe (McDermott likes this kids potential as well as the school he comes from)

 

Well there you have it. As you can see there are no QBs taken this year, but the Bills will surely add one via free agency after the draft. The Bills will also sign a few more pass rushers and LBs as well.

 

GO BILLS!

[LeGOATski]

The potential impact that OJ Howard could have on the offense trumps everyone else, I think.

 

I agree with your summary. He's super talented and also seems like a culture fit.

 

With him as the pick, they'd bolster both the passing and running game. Tyrod (as well as the QB who eventually replaces him) need to be surrounded by weapons in order to consistently score enough to win games.

[Baba Booey]

I'm hoping trade back. Pick up 2nd round pick and take Reddick or Cunningham in the late teens. If no partner to trade with I think you take best available receiver. Be it Williams,Davis, or Howard.

[YoloinOhio]

I'm hoping trade back. Pick up 2nd round pick and take Reddick or Cunningham in the late teens. If no partner to trade with I think you take best available receiver. Be it Williams,Davis, or Howard.

i agree with this, but am partial to Howard over either of the 2 WRs if they stay at 10. If one of them is still there later in the 1st after a trade down, maybe. Edited April 4, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[switz1610]

After looking at the Bills depth for all positions, I believe the most glairing need based on depth is at OLB, with CB coming in at a close second, and DE coming in at a distant third. WR, Safety, and RT have a lot of depth, but still have question marks.

 

Within the draft, I really don't see a lot of depth at LB in the later rounds that would produce a possible day 1 starter. That would be my # 1 need since we have two starting OLBs that are career special teams aces. DB is stacked this year, and I believe we can find a day 1 starter / contributor in the later rounds. DE is set with their two starters, but lack serious depth in a scheme that requires a lot of subbing in and out. Fortunately there is some solid depth here as well that we can address in the later rounds as well. We have projected starters, and projected backups for WR, S, and RT, but seriously lack the guy we truly desire so I could see us making a play on either one of these positions early in the draft. With this being said, here is my prediction for the upcoming draft.

 

1-10: Trade to Browns for 1-12, 4-108, 5-175 (Browns take Deshaun Watson)

1-12: Bills take OLB Ha'ason Reddick (With his athleticism, he'll fit any scheme. I project him to play the "Will" but will rush the passer often)

2-44: Bills take TE Evan Engram (Will be primarily a move TE with Clay / O'Leary filling most blocking duties)

3-75: Bills take CB Shaquill Griffin (Could start day 1. Physical, long armed, tackling CB)

4-108: Bills take DE Dawuane Smoot (More of a run defending DE, but would be thrown in rotation immediately)

5-156: Bills take WR Robert Davis (Had a great combine, but lacked production in college. Will play a role on special teams)

5-171 Bills take CB Brian Allen (Another combine freak. Could push for playing time, but needs a lot of work)

5-175 Bills take WR Levonte "Kermit" Whitfield (Kermit provides insurance to Listenbee, and is also a great return man)

6-195 Bills take OL Jerry Ugokwe (McDermott likes this kids potential as well as the school he comes from)

 

Well there you have it. As you can see there are no QBs taken this year, but the Bills will surely add one via free agency after the draft. The Bills will also sign a few more pass rushers and LBs as well.

 

GO BILLS!

 

 

ROON can you share your thoughts on trading down?

[LeGOATski]

i agree with this, but am partial to Howard over either of the 2 WRs if they stay at 10. If one of them is still there later in the 1st after a trade down, maybe.

No-brainer, I think. There are no questions about his ability to separate or catch the ball. His versatility is a plus for a team as run-oriented as the Bills.

[ROONDOGG55]

 

 

ROON can you share your thoughts on trading down?

The Saint's are openly looking for a Drew Brees replacement, and the Browns desperately need a QB, so I see the Browns trading up two spots to snag him. I used the draft pick trade "thing" from CBS to determine the picks worth. 10th is worth 1300 while 12th is worth 1200. The Browns 4th and 5th round picks equal around 100 together making it an even trade.

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

After looking at the Bills depth for all positions, I believe the most glairing need based on depth is at OLB, with CB coming in at a close second, and DE coming in at a distant third. WR, Safety, and RT have a lot of depth, but still have question marks.

 

Within the draft, I really don't see a lot of depth at LB in the later rounds that would produce a possible day 1 starter. That would be my # 1 need since we have two starting OLBs that are career special teams aces. DB is stacked this year, and I believe we can find a day 1 starter / contributor in the later rounds. DE is set with their two starters, but lack serious depth in a scheme that requires a lot of subbing in and out. Fortunately there is some solid depth here as well that we can address in the later rounds as well. We have projected starters, and projected backups for WR, S, and RT, but seriously lack the guy we truly desire so I could see us making a play on either one of these positions early in the draft. With this being said, here is my prediction for the upcoming draft.

 

1-10: Trade to Browns for 1-12, 4-108, 5-175 (Browns take Deshaun Watson)

1-12: Bills take OLB Ha'ason Reddick (With his athleticism, he'll fit any scheme. I project him to play the "Will" but will rush the passer often)

2-44: Bills take TE Evan Engram (Will be primarily a move TE with Clay / O'Leary filling most blocking duties)

3-75: Bills take CB Shaquill Griffin (Could start day 1. Physical, long armed, tackling CB)

4-108: Bills take DE Dawuane Smoot (More of a run defending DE, but would be thrown in rotation immediately)

5-156: Bills take WR Robert Davis (Had a great combine, but lacked production in college. Will play a role on special teams)

5-171 Bills take CB Brian Allen (Another combine freak. Could push for playing time, but needs a lot of work)

5-175 Bills take WR Levonte "Kermit" Whitfield (Kermit provides insurance to Listenbee, and is also a great return man)

6-195 Bills take OL Jerry Ugokwe (McDermott likes this kids potential as well as the school he comes from)

 

Well there you have it. As you can see there are no QBs taken this year, but the Bills will surely add one via free agency after the draft. The Bills will also sign a few more pass rushers and LBs as well.

 

GO BILLS!

 

So the Bills have Cardale Jones as backup? Terrible idea imo, a rookie QB in the 1st 3 rounds is a must imo.

[ROONDOGG55]

 

So the Bills have Cardale Jones as backup? Terrible idea imo, a rookie QB in the 1st 3 rounds is a must imo.

 

No not at all sir! The Bills will sign a vet and rookie FA after the draft. Between those 3, there will be a competition for backup which Cardarle will most likely win.

[CEN-CAL17]

OLB Reddick or WR Mike Williams- Sleeper Cam Robinson

CB QWilson/Witherspoon

WR Ardarius Stewart or OLB Elijah Lee

[LeGOATski]

 

No not at all sir! The Bills will sign a vet and rookie FA after the draft. Between those 3, there will be a competition for backup which Cardarle will most likely win.

Lol. Great reply to someone who obviously doesn't want Cardale as the backup.

[John from Riverside]

The more that time goes on the more I think the bills try to trade down and take a guy like Cunningham in the 1st round. My reasoning is

 

- We only have 6 picks as of now

 

- Pretty much EVERYBODY thinks the top 4 qbs are not day 1 starters.....I think it makes one of them really appealing in the 2nd....and frankly I dont discount the brotherhood of the bills buying into drafting Chad Kelly later....who despite his off the field issues is one of the best qbs in this draft and a family icon in buffalo.

 

- Tight Ends are deep in this draft

 

- Corners are deep in this draft

 

- last year our D was in the 20's while our O was top 10 in scoring......the HC might just think he needs to get his defense right again before he does anything else.

 

Personally talent wise? i would like OJ Howard at this point in the 1st....but that is just me.

[Haplo848]

As much as I hate to say it, I feel like our 1st round pick absolutely should NOT be Howard. TT can't throw over the middle. As long as he's the QB, we'd be wasting any elite talent at TE, because TT can't/won't throw there. Just look at Clay. He's an athletic TE who can block, run, get flexed out to WR, he's versatile, essentially everything you're saying about Howard, and is probably a top 5-10 TE, talent-wise, and his stats end up looking like a middling TE. Picking up a second one? Unless you consider this a rebuilding year, with a look to the future, and plan on drafting a QB high next year, Howard would be a waste.

[bisonbrigade]

Trade Back as many times as possible there is way to many holes. The Bills need a CB, Gilmore is gone. Bills need a WR, Woods and Goodwin gone, Bills need a LB, Zach Brown gone. The Bills are in BIG trouble. I would trade back as many times as possible. This team is a far away from 10-6 and a playoff spot. Try more like 5-11.

 

[mannc]

The Saint's are openly looking for a Drew Brees replacement, and the Browns desperately need a QB, so I see the Browns trading up two spots to snag him. I used the draft pick trade "thing" from CBS to determine the picks worth. 10th is worth 1300 while 12th is worth 1200. The Browns 4th and 5th round picks equal around 100 together making it an even trade.

IMO, this is the most realistic and attractive trade down scenario for the Bills. They move back a little and recoup some of the late round picks Whaley has donated to other teams. Edited April 4, 2017 by mannc

[ROONDOGG55]

IMO, this is the most realistic and attractive trade down scenario for the Bills. They move back a little and recoup some of the late round picks Whaley has donated to other teams.

Exactly what I was thinking as well. Browns have plenty of picks for the next decade so this wouldn't hurt at all.

[1billsfan]

Trade Back as many times as possible there is way to many holes. The Bills need a CB, Gilmore is gone. Bills need a WR, Woods and Goodwin gone, Bills need a LB, Zach Brown gone. The Bills are in BIG trouble. I would trade back as many times as possible. This team is a far away from 10-6 and a playoff spot. Try more like 5-11.

 

 

I think there will be very few trades this draft because there's so much depth at many positions. GMs who trade away picks will catch a TON of heat in this draft.

 

That being said, the Bills are in a very good position at #10 to add a pick or two in a trade down scenario to a team that's looking for a QB which has falling to the Bills spot (if they don't want that QB for themselves of course).

 

If they don't go QB, I see the Bills going LB in the 1st right now, because they will probably feel like they can draft a very good CB in the 2nd and a very good WR in the 3rd round.

[xRUSHx]

 

So the Bills have Cardale Jones as backup? Terrible idea imo, a rookie QB in the 1st 3 rounds is a must imo.

I agree, and with Tyrod being a runner he might not finish the season so we end up with CJ and a late rounder to finish the season with so this team is dead in the water. If they move on from Tyrod after this season we will have nothing but CJ as a starter since the other QB would be a late rounder needing tons of work still. If they draft a top pick from 2018 he would be very vanilla or another journeyman wont sell tickets. It puts us in the exact same spot of QB need and this team a waste of space once again. Smart move in my opinion is to snag one of the top QBs this season. Im all in on DW @10 if Cleveland doesn't screw it up for us.

Trade Back as many times as possible there is way to many holes. The Bills need a CB, Gilmore is gone. Bills need a WR, Woods and Goodwin gone, Bills need a LB, Zach Brown gone. The Bills are in BIG trouble. I would trade back as many times as possible. This team is a far away from 10-6 and a playoff spot. Try more like 5-11.

 

Filling your team with late rounders would have us set up for a top pick in 2018. IMO they need to stay right where they are and just pick trading back is just wasting picks IMO

As much as I hate to say it, I feel like our 1st round pick absolutely should NOT be Howard. TT can't throw over the middle. As long as he's the QB, we'd be wasting any elite talent at TE, because TT can't/won't throw there. Just look at Clay. He's an athletic TE who can block, run, get flexed out to WR, he's versatile, essentially everything you're saying about Howard, and is probably a top 5-10 TE, talent-wise, and his stats end up looking like a middling TE. Picking up a second one? Unless you consider this a rebuilding year, with a look to the future, and plan on drafting a QB high next year, Howard would be a waste.

I agree, Tyrod can't see who we have now why have more sitting wide open

The more that time goes on the more I think the bills try to trade down and take a guy like Cunningham in the 1st round. My reasoning is

 

- We only have 6 picks as of now

 

- Pretty much EVERYBODY thinks the top 4 qbs are not day 1 starters.....I think it makes one of them really appealing in the 2nd....and frankly I dont discount the brotherhood of the bills buying into drafting Chad Kelly later....who despite his off the field issues is one of the best qbs in this draft and a family icon in buffalo.

 

- Tight Ends are deep in this draft

 

- Corners are deep in this draft

 

- last year our D was in the 20's while our O was top 10 in scoring......the HC might just think he needs to get his defense right again before he does anything else.

 

Personally talent wise? i would like OJ Howard at this point in the 1st....but that is just me.

Pretty much everybody? I don't agree that these QBs are that bad at all.

Nobody knows about the QBs that come out any year it's a crap shoot every draft unless they are a Manning/Luck.

DW to draft DW @10 Is my hope.

Edited April 4, 2017 by xRUSHx

[indiragandhi'sthong]

Love this topic ... LB is a big concern, so I would understand if they traded down and picked up one later in the first round. I worry about CB and corner depth, but I think help could come from choices as late as Round 4 or Round 5. I hope we stay at #10 and take OJ Howard. Can you imagine the sets they could trot out with him, Clay Watkins, Holmes, Shady out of the backfield? Add in Tolbert as a receiving threat and Philly Brown in the slot and it could be a real nightmare for opposing defenses. I think OJ Howard makes the biggest impact at #10.