Getting the top pick in 2018 ?

[Buffalo Barbarian]

This IS NOT A TANKING THREAD.

 

I have been in favor of a partial tank meaning gut the offense and focus on defense, which would have given us a poor record while maintaining a competitive team and hopefully the top pick in 2018.

 

However, with the signing of TT and other offensive additions we are looking at another 8-8 year. I LOVE the Sean McDermott hire but with a new coach and vastly different Offensive and Defensive systems from Wrecks it will take a lot to even have a average season this yr.

 

I feel that Sam Darnold is the best QB to come out since Luck and we should do whatever it takes to get him. Now if he does as good next yr no team would be willing to give up that pick next year. However Teams like to have assets now and are willing to give up picks for the future, so trading with a team we think will be the worst THIS year, like San Fran or Cleveland, can get us their top pick in 2018 while giving up something this yr.

 

Therefore I would trade this yrs number one for a second or third AND that teams next yr first round pick.

 

Now it's possible we don't get the top pick but with two first round picks this would give us the opportunity to move up to number one and then trade more picks if need be to acquire it IF Sam plays worthily.

 

Now everyone will decry that we will be losing our first this year, but are we going to get a game changer at 10 this year ?? Perhaps but this is a deep draft and with an extra 2 or 3 there's a good possibility that we can get a great player in the second as we would have in the first. A stud LB or DL would be nice in the first but until we get a Elite QB we will never be a contender in this league and I believe Darnold will be that guy.

[bilzfancy]

I've thought about this with the Jets, say they draft Fournette at 6, then wanted their QB, possibly at 10, giving up their 2nd and 4th this year, and a first and 3rd next year, should the Bills do it?

[PromoTheRobot]

 

So you're not saying we should tank, but we should tank.

Edited April 1, 2017 by PromoTheRobot

[H2o]

It's a nice thought, but I don't think this is an option for them. We need players, especially on defense, and this is a deep defensive draft. It has what would normally be 1st round talent through the 1st two with the upper tier looking like real impact players. We are likely to come out of the 1st two days with a LB, a CB, either a WR or S. I know you are trying to find a way for the team to have the fire power to move up for Darnold, but I don't see them making a trade within the division nor do I see anyone in this draft for which someone would give up what you are proposing. I see teams moving around with assets from this draft, but not giving up a 1st and 3rd next year. No Darnold for us my friend, not unless we suck that bad in 2017.

[jr1]

here's a 2018 mock for reference http://walterfootball.com/draft2018.php

[YoloinOhio]

I'm not convinced any of the QBs will be worth it, and scouts are saying the same. Too early to determine anything and it's entirely possible Darnold doesn't declare.

It's a common theme with the folks studying his film that he has a long way to go.

Edited April 1, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[frogger]

If Houston doesn't land Romo, they could trade their 2017 first and their 2018 first round pick to move to the tenth, depends on how desperate they are. They could also assume that their 2018 pick will be a late 1st round pick. Having two firsts will allow us to trade up

[Gugny]

I honestly don't think that much of an effort is going to be necessary, this season, to lose at least 10 games. We're going to have a top 5 pick next year without trading anything to anyone.

 

Furthermore, I don't see ANY teams in the league that will imminently fare worse than the Bills this season.

 

I know it won't happen, but I'd rather keep our picks this year - build the D - and trade one/more of our valuable players for more picks next year. That's not a call for a tank. It's just being smart, IMO.

 

I just hope that once it's clear that the Bills are no good this season, that they just sit Tyrod and let Cardale Jones play the rest of the season out (my guess is that it'll be clear by week 5). We still don't know what the kid can do.

[fansince88]

Really? So why even play any games this year because if you say we cant get to the playoffs why try.

[Nanker]

A Billzy tank job:

[Chuck Wagon]

I'm not convinced any of the QBs will be worth it, and scouts are saying the same. Too early to determine anything and it's entirely possible Darnold doesn't declare.

It's a common theme with the folks studying his film that he has a long way to go.

 

 

It's also a common refrain that next year's QB is the one to get. Last year at this time the refrain was "I'm not 100% sold on Wentz or Goff, but Deshaun Watson is the guy". Similar things happened with Matt Barkley and Jimmy Clausen just to name a couple. Next years guy gets anointed as the one you want, plays the entire year under an intense microscope and gets his nits picked apart. Darnold has looked good, but he hasn't played a lot of football yet, by the time Andrew Luck was going to be in the draft he was a Stanford graduate with almost twice as much experience as Darnold will have.

[Webster Guy]

I like the idea of getting another 1st for next year and dealing our 10th spot this year. I just wonder how many GM's/owners have that kind of long term strategy.

 

If I were an owner and I had to win a single championship in ten years or I get shot, I'd go with your idea. Maybe even 2 or 3 years of dealing my 1st round picks and then you pull the trigger on a monster draft with stud rookies on reasonable 5 year contracts. They grow together like Dak and Zeke Elliot will.

 

Most fans would hate the wait though. And bold strategic plans like that would keep Sully writing for another 5 years, we just can't have that.

[papazoid]

you will NEVER get players and coaches to "tank".....their livelihoods here or on another team are at stake.

 

it is highly UNLIKELY you will get a dead man walking, half lame duck GM (whaley) who needs to make the playoffs to have any shot at keeping his job willing to tank......errr, I mean look to the long term future.

 

it is highly UNLIKELY you will get a fairly new team owner who just acknowledged the pain the fans have endured from all these losing seasons to throw away the 2017 season.

 

 

having said that....as the team is currently constructed, you are only one TT season ending injury from it happening on it's own.

[Mark Vader]

I'm all for trading down this year.

 

If that nets us a first round pick next year, that would be great.

 

As far as Sam Darnold goes, let's see how he does this year, and if he chooses to declare.

 

If he decides to stay at USC, no problem. There are other very good QB's available in 2018.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I've thought about this with the Jets, say they draft Fournette at 6, then wanted their QB, possibly at 10, giving up their 2nd and 4th this year, and a first and 3rd next year, should the Bills do it?

 

That would be a nice haul and it is possible they could be the worst. I think it is worth a shot and if we don't get the top pick we would have a ton of ammo to move up if Darnold lives up to expectations. I say do it.

So you're not saying we should tank, but we should tank.

 

What part of acquiring another teams pick suggests Tanking??

 

Clearly the organization isn't tanking but also knows TT is not the future which is why they bullied him down his contract. So they need to do whatever it takes to get a franchise QB.

I'm not convinced any of the QBs will be worth it, and scouts are saying the same. Too early to determine anything and it's entirely possible Darnold doesn't declare.

It's a common theme with the folks studying his film that he has a long way to go.

 

Scouts were buzzing about Darnold at the combine which tells me they think he is special when they are talking about him a year ahead of time when they are supposed to be focusing on this yrs draft.

 

Darnold is the real deal and if he plays like last year will be number one over all.

I honestly don't think that much of an effort is going to be necessary, this season, to lose at least 10 games. We're going to have a top 5 pick next year without trading anything to anyone.

 

Furthermore, I don't see ANY teams in the league that will imminently fare worse than the Bills this season.

 

I know it won't happen, but I'd rather keep our picks this year - build the D - and trade one/more of our valuable players for more picks next year. That's not a call for a tank. It's just being smart, IMO.

 

I just hope that once it's clear that the Bills are no good this season, that they just sit Tyrod and let Cardale Jones play the rest of the season out (my guess is that it'll be clear by week 5). We still don't know what the kid can do.

 

It's possible but we found a way to not be bad enough for Luck, I'd rather be assured of the top pick than hopeful. Our defense will be fine now that Wrecks is gone.

Really? So why even play any games this year because if you say we cant get to the playoffs why try.

 

what does this have to do with getting ANOTHER teams top pick. We can still make the playoffs AND get that pick.

I like the idea of getting another 1st for next year and dealing our 10th spot this year. I just wonder how many GM's/owners have that kind of long term strategy.

 

If I were an owner and I had to win a single championship in ten years or I get shot, I'd go with your idea. Maybe even 2 or 3 years of dealing my 1st round picks and then you pull the trigger on a monster draft with stud rookies on reasonable 5 year contracts. They grow together like Dak and Zeke Elliot will.

 

Most fans would hate the wait though. And bold strategic plans like that would keep Sully writing for another 5 years, we just can't have that.

 

maybe our GM should try this since it's been 17 yrs

you will NEVER get players and coaches to "tank".....their livelihoods here or on another team are at stake.

 

it is highly UNLIKELY you will get a dead man walking, half lame duck GM (whaley) who needs to make the playoffs to have any shot at keeping his job willing to tank......errr, I mean look to the long term future.

 

it is highly UNLIKELY you will get a fairly new team owner who just acknowledged the pain the fans have endured from all these losing seasons to throw away the 2017 season.

 

 

having said that....as the team is currently constructed, you are only one TT season ending injury from it happening on it's own.

 

Dude did you not read the first sentence?! I said we wont tank therefore we need to acquire more picks next yr for Darnold.

I'm all for trading down this year.

 

If that nets us a first round pick next year, that would be great.

 

As far as Sam Darnold goes, let's see how he does this year, and if he chooses to declare.

 

If he decides to stay at USC, no problem. There are other very good QB's available in 2018.

 

This is true but I think Darnold is the best. Josh Rosen and Josh Allen as well as the rest of the class have flaws.

[GunnerBill]

Okay let's start from the premise that Darnold is the guy. I haven't evaluated him at all yet but I have seen a couple of respected vices, including the PFF guy (and of course our own Blokes), say in recent weeks that people should hold their horses on declaring him the next Andrew Luck consensus #1 QB. But if I start from your premise that Darnold IS the guy....

 

Then I think in order from your strategy to work you better be able to predict who is going to be the worst team in the NFL in 2017. Maybe it is Cleveland again (if it is them I guess that's a non-starter they have shown they are about accumulating picks almost to the detriment of spending them on quality players), maybe it is San Fran (though I'd expect Shanahan to be able to find a way to 6 or 7 wins even with Brian Hoyer.... he has done it before, maybe it is Chicago (if they don't go QB it well could be them). The Bears are the ones there who might most go for your offer because I think that Pace and Fox are beginning to feel the heat and need improvement now. But maybe it is someone else? How many years have we seen a totally unexpected team start slow and the basically mail it in? Indy the Manning neck year and Houston in Kubiak's last season there spring to mind. You couldn't have predicted either of those ending up #1 overall.

 

If you don't predict that correctly and we have accepted the premise that Darnold is the guy then you are not finding any team willing to give up the chance to select him at #1 overall just for 2 first round picks. In 2015 when Winston and Mariota were there (closest to Luck since he came out) the rumour is a team - probably Philly - offered 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a couple of late round picks to move up to #2 and Tennessee turned it down. If you are saying Darnold will be higher consensus than those 2 guys then I don't think having say the #4 overall pick in 2018 and the #12 pick in 2018 would tempt a team.

[4merper4mer]

Scouts were once buzzing about some dude named Jay Clocker too but I don't even think he got drafted.

[BringBackFergy]

You had me at "Darnold is the best QB since Luck"...no thanks.

[Mark80]

I am always a fan of acquiring more picks as a rule of thumb. Drafted players are cheaper than FA to fill your holes and more likely to re-sign with your team at a lower rate than a FA when their rookie deals expire. The best franchises out there fill their rosters with drafted players who contribute all throughout the roster. However, your plan just has too many variables in it to be the reason I'm trading for future picks. First, Darnold has to improve on his stellar performance this year. That is saying a lot. It is not enough for a college QB to maintain their levels of play, they have to show progression too IMO, which will be hard to do after such a great season. It's very possible he regresses this season and is not the sure fire pick some believe he is at this time.

 

Second, you have to depend on that team you traded to not turning it around this year. It happens every year. A team that is not expected to do anything suddenly clicks and they make a run. The Panthers in 2015 come to mind off a terrible 2014. Granted, usually that jump comes with a capable QB leading the squad, but you never know who is going to do it. So, if we make that trade and the team ends up being a playoff team, where does that leave us? It is very possible that teams pick next year is worse than our 10th this year.

 

If we are trading down I want to get multiple picks for this years draft since you know what you are getting or trading a round up for next years draft (a 3rd this year for 2nd next year) to guarantee you win value wise. Especially when dealing with first round picks, one for one (with another 2nd or 3rd thrown in) is just too risky for my liking.

[4merper4mer]

You had me at "Darnold is the best QB since Luck"...no thanks.

What? You don't want a turnover machine who can win the division once in a while if it turns out to be the worst division in the history of football? And all of this for only 83% of your salary cap?