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Posted (edited)

Lets revisit BBMB. Top 3 of your "statistical analysis"

 

Over the middle passes. which led to "The definition of the middle of the field"

3rd down "passing" stats when the bigger picture is total 3rd down conversions.

Holy crap... you're seriously coming back to this?

 

Fine, in 3rd down %, Taylor's 14th. The team is 13th.

 

What's your point?

Edited by transplantbillsfan
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Posted

They want to explain away why he took a paycut when he was putting up so many POINTS. Problem is they can't explain why Tyrod took a paycut.

 

I assumed the reason he took a pay cut was because he wants to be a starter in the NFL and the Bills situation at QB provides him the best opportunity to start and also the best opportunity to win given the many other variables that could come into place with moving to another team.

 

I thought Tyrod had explained when he came to Buffalo that his entire career intention has been to become a starter so he could prove he was better than he has been given credit for. I think he has been saying that since his pro day disappointment back when he came out of college and people wanted him to switch to wide receiver. He has had a chip on his shoulder since then.

Posted

 

I assumed the reason he took a pay cut was because he wants to be a starter in the NFL and the Bills situation at QB provides him the best opportunity to start and also the best opportunity to win given the many other variables that could come into place with moving to another team.

 

I thought Tyrod had explained when he came to Buffalo that his entire career intention has been to become a starter so he could prove he was better than he has been given credit for. I think he has been saying that since his pro day disappointment back when he came out of college and people wanted him to switch to wide receiver. He has had a chip on his shoulder since then.

How could anyone believe this? Aren't we meeting with every QB in this draft?

Posted

 

I assumed the reason he took a pay cut was because he wants to be a starter in the NFL and the Bills situation at QB provides him the best opportunity to start and also the best opportunity to win given the many other variables that could come into place with moving to another team.

 

I thought Tyrod had explained when he came to Buffalo that his entire career intention has been to become a starter so he could prove he was better than he has been given credit for. I think he has been saying that since his pro day disappointment back when he came out of college and people wanted him to switch to wide receiver. He has had a chip on his shoulder since then.

 

Yes, Tyrod wanted to start. The issue is why would he accept a restructured deal after putting up so many points (which we are told means he is a good QB)? I think there is a consensus here. Tyrod didn't play up to the contract he signed the year before and he decided he was better off here than elsewhere.

 

There are a few people that don't want to accept that but you can only spend so much time trying to reason with them. It also brings out angry emotional responses (see above) for those invested in the idea that Tyrod is something more than he is, a marginal NFL starter.

Posted

How could anyone believe this? Aren't we meeting with every QB in this draft?

 

Tyrod probably thinks he is a much, much better NFL QB than you obviously think he is.

 

So, if he compares himself to the other free agents and qb's coming out in the draft, I would bet HE THINKS Buffalo is his best opportunity to start and win.

 

In that scenario it totally makes sense he would make "doing whatever he has to do to stay in Buffalo for this year" his top priority. And that meant taking a big pay cut. Makes total sense to me.

Posted

 

Tyrod probably thinks he is a much, much better NFL QB than you obviously think he is.

 

So, if he compares himself to the other free agents and qb's coming out in the draft, I would bet HE THINKS Buffalo is his best opportunity to start and win.

 

In that scenario it totally makes sense he would make "doing whatever he has to do to stay in Buffalo for this year" his top priority. And that meant taking a big pay cut. Makes total sense to me.

You don't think he had an equal chance of starting in, say, NY? Or Chicago? Or Houston? Or Denver? Or Cleveland?

Posted

 

Yes, Tyrod wanted to start. The issue is why would he accept a restructured deal after putting up so many points (which we are told means he is a good QB)? I think there is a consensus here. Tyrod didn't play up to the contract he signed the year before and he decided he was better off here than elsewhere.

 

There are a few people that don't want to accept that but you can only spend so much time trying to reason with them. It also brings out angry emotional responses (see above) for those invested in the idea that Tyrod is something more than he is, a marginal NFL starter.

 

Count me in on the group that thinks Tyrod is going to play better (probably and hopefully much better) this year than either of his two previous years here. If he doesn't, there won't be too many Bills fans unwilling to move on from him. I am optimistic - in fact more so than I have been in a while - at least as of right now. Get a good receiver and a new right tackle and my optimism will be higher yet.

You don't think he had an equal chance of starting in, say, NY? Or Chicago? Or Houston? Or Denver? Or Cleveland?

 

I think HE THINKS his best opportunity is Buffalo. And I think he is right. I have not analyzed every other opportunity he has though. So, perhaps my opinion would change if I knew that. My gut tells me he knows what he is doing and he is doing it because he wants to prove he is way better than many people have historically given him credit for. And I believe there is a really good chance he proves himself correct about that. Time will tell.

Posted

 

Count me in on the group that thinks Tyrod is going to play better (probably and hopefully much better) this year than either of his two previous years here. If he doesn't, there won't be too many Bills fans unwilling to move on from him. I am optimistic - in fact more so than I have been in a while - at least as of right now. Get a good receiver and a new right tackle and my optimism will be higher yet.

 

I think HE THINKS his best opportunity is Buffalo. And I think he is right. I have not analyzed every other opportunity he has though. So, perhaps my opinion would change if I knew that. My gut tells me he knows what he is doing and he is doing it because he wants to prove he is way better than many people have historically given him credit for. And I believe there is a really good chance he proves himself correct about that. Time will tell.

 

Ok, that is fair. I have no issue with that. I personally believe Tyrod is at ceiling but I love the Kubiak/Shanahan offense and Dennison is a wild card.

Posted (edited)

Holy crap... you're seriously coming back to this?

 

Fine, in 3rd down %, Taylor's 14th. The team is 13th.

 

What's your point?

I'm coming back to the following quote

 

How many threads did you have on specific TT stats on the BBMB?

The "over the middle" went on for ever. 3rd down passing % as well.

 

 

Posted Today, 12:36 PM

transplantbillsfan, on 12 Apr 2017 - 03:28 AM, said:snapback.png

Thurm you're just too funny the way you pick straws out that fit a small random point you're trying to make as you neglect 99% of what's being said.

 

Kudo's 2016 3rd down %, was up from 2015's poorer 21 ranking --- (and they did it w/o Sammy :huh:).

 

Which makes on wonder ..... why are there so many comments about TT not having targets, meaning he didn't have his best weapon as the excuse for his down QBR?

 

As I and others stated (you'd call it speculation), with more passing attempts TT's numbers would drop, which they did.

 

Twelve less yards with 94 more passing attempts and one less game played 14 vs 15.

2016 (15 GS) 269 comp on 436 passes for 3023 yds Sammy 53.8% catch rate

2015 (14 GS) 242 comp on 380 passes for 3035 yds Sammy 62.5% catch rate

 

:huh: How does one improve yet not improve?

Edited by ShadyBillsFan
Posted

 

Ok, that is fair. I have no issue with that. I personally believe Tyrod is at ceiling but I love the Kubiak/Shanahan offense and Dennison is a wild card.

 

Yes. Many unknown variables this year - any one of which could throw a wrench in the season and cause a catastrophe. As a Bills fan I secretly fear that is going to happen - and kind of expect it - just wondering how it will happen.

 

But because they haven't lost a game yet this year and haven't done so embarrassingly, I hold on to optimism trying to justify my decision to shell out thousands of dollars yet again for another 8 home games.

Posted

Hi Thurm -

 

Thanks.

 

I think you have to look at what's guaranteed and then what's likely. Guaranteed was $40, and what's likely now is $30. Why is it likely? Because there's no upside to the Bills cutting him after 2017, because the cap hit is almost as bad as keeping him. So unless he becomes a public relations problem, the Bills will always keep him for 2018. Even if they've found another starter, he's a better backup than they could find anywhere else.

 

So I'm pretty sure Taylor looked at it as giving up $10 million.

 

However, if you review what's been said and and the contract history, I think the conclusion that these negotiations are a lot less about the money and a lot more about the option to terminate the contract. That is, it's always been about Taylor's freedom to make a new deal and who has the option to set him free.

 

He left Baltimore and wanted to go someplace where he could start. He didn't seem to spend any time or energy on getting a lot of money; he wanted to go somewhere where he had a good chance to start and where he would have a short contract. He signed a three year deal with Buffalo, but a major part of the deal for Tyrod was that he could opt out after two years.

 

So what happened? He played well his first year and the Bills were unhappy about the fact that Taylor could leave after year two. That meant that if Taylor had a good year two, the Bills would have to give him something like five years at $20 million per to keep him, and the Bills knew that they weren't going to be willing to commit that much to him after year two. They wanted to see him for at least three years.

 

So they go to Taylor and suggest renegotiating, so the Bills could have a full three years and then cut him without penalty if they wanted to. Taylor said no, because the option at the end of year two was what he wanted. He wasn't going to give up the option for nothing. He asked for a long-term deal with big money. Bills said no to the money, yes to the long-term IF the option to end it all without penalty at the end of year two came back to the Bills. Taylor said ok, he'll give up the option to get out because he has guaranteed money.

 

Year two happens and Taylor underperforms, in comparison to year one and also in terms of what's good enough to win in the NFL. Now the Bills are on the hotseat. They have the option to end the deal and avoid the guarantees, but they aren't sure about Taylor. If Taylor is the year-one QB, the contract is a bargain. If he's the year-two QB, they're overpaying and they may want to move on.

 

Meanwhile, Taylor doesn't have the same doubts. He's started for two years, he knows he can play in the league. His seasons are nothing like the seasons Manuel and most young QBs have in the league. He's seen guys bounce around the league. He knows for the next seven years he can get FItzpatrick-McCown money all day long. He's better than they are, and someone will always pay him to play or to be a quality backup on a contending team. That's his cushion. He knows that he's always going to be able to make the money he's guaranteed under his current contract. What he wants is to get the option back. He wants the leverage to be able to say in a year or two that he wants more money, more than he'd get locked up with the Bills through 2021 or whenever.

 

So I think Taylor looked at it and said, "I'm guaranteed $40. Under the two-year deal we're talking about, I'm almost certainly going to get $30. I'm almost certainly going to get the additional $10 in the next one or two years after that. So the guarantee of $40 doesn't mean a lot; I'm going to get the $40 either way. But under the new deal, my upside in 2019, 2020 and 2021 is much higher. The salary cap is going up. If I play well, I can get over $20 a year, maybe even $25 a year." I think Taylor listened to that, has confidence in his abilities and his future, and said "this is easy - I'll get the $40 either way, and the new deal gives me options."

 

Bills, likewise, liked the deal because THEY got the option to terminate without major pain after 2018. What the Bills gave up is the opportunity to have Taylor on the cheap if he turns out to be good.

 

I think what very well could happen is that in 2017 Taylor has a good year - say a passer rating around 94, which is his average. That would be at or around top 10. Bills win 9-10 games. And next February or March, Taylor and the Bills are renegotiating AGAIN. Why? Because at that point the Bills don't want to go into 2018 with Taylor playing on a one-year deal. If he has another good season, his price tag will go WAY up - as I said, in the low- to mid-20s. So they'll be talking about a new deal, 4-5-6 years, just like the last one, worth more than the deal the Bills just got away from, and with more than half of it guaranteed.

 

If Taylor has another mediocre season, Bills go looking for a new QB, keep Taylor for 2018 and then negotiate or let him walk.

 

What happened is that Taylor gave up some money to get out from under a long term deal. The Bills gave up the bargain price for a starting QB in order to get out from under the long-term future. They're both betting on what Taylor does in the next two seasons.

 

If Taylor didn't want to make that bet, he would have refused to renegotiate and called the Bills' bluff.

Always a pleasure to read your posts/insight.

 

thanks

Posted

Didn't Brady play for a lesser contract in order to gain better pieces around him and give him a better chance to win? Seems like a crazy idea, huh?

Great point BillsMedia,

 

If you want to build up to an even bigger payday for everyone concerned,

 

Don't be greedy...

Posted

When you start pointing at Brady's sacrifices to justify why Taylor did what he did then you are trolling. The only thing worth mentioning is that they played the same positions.

 

Nothing else is close, including the contractual details. Brady has been paid well for years, Taylor is a bench dweller in the prime of his career who just lost millions in order to keep a door open for himself. Hopefully he can earn those millions back otherwise he is nothing more than a place holder and soon to be the next in a long line of Bills QB fails.

Posted

When you start pointing at Brady's sacrifices to justify why Taylor did what he did then you are trolling. The only thing worth mentioning is that they played the same positions.

 

Nothing else is close, including the contractual details. Brady has been paid well for years, Taylor is a bench dweller in the prime of his career who just lost millions in order to keep a door open for himself. Hopefully he can earn those millions back otherwise he is nothing more than a place holder and soon to be the next in a long line of Bills QB fails.

 

Or Taylor wants to win, either one. Bench dweller? 2 time pro bowler. Either one. Trolling is hard, ehh?

Posted

 

Or Taylor wants to win, either one. Bench dweller? 2 time pro bowler. Either one. Trolling is hard, ehh?

If he wants to win and he is such a desired commodityaround the leauge, why didn't he take he take his pro bowl participate ribbons to Denver or Houston?

Posted

If he wants to win and he is such a desired commodityaround the leauge, why didn't he take he take his pro bowl participate ribbons to Denver or Houston?

 

Who knows, nobody does. EVERY POST IS SPECULATION, but on these message boards users claim them as facts. Nobody knows anything in regards to Tyrod Taylor, other than he is FORSURE going to be the 2017 Buffalo Bills starting QB. Stop reading into stuff and trying to develop a gameplan like you people are GM's. Watch the draft, watch the training camp, and watch the Bills games. Why are you trying to question every last thing about everything?

 

The only fact we know, is Tyrod Taylor is a 2 time pro bowl QB and will be starting for the Bills this year. Lets discuss draft options instead of making up arguments that favor YOUR individual position. I try to sit back and follow the Bills but these posts but most users are undoubtedly biased and have a clear mission to bash Tyrod in every wy possible. Does he have weaknesses? Yes. Does he have strengths? Yes. Is he our STARTER? Yes. What is there to discuss?

Posted

When you start pointing at Brady's sacrifices to justify why Taylor did what he did then you are trolling. The only thing worth mentioning is that they played the same positions.

 

Nothing else is close, including the contractual details. Brady has been paid well for years, Taylor is a bench dweller in the prime of his career who just lost millions in order to keep a door open for himself. Hopefully he can earn those millions back otherwise he is nothing more than a place holder and soon to be the next in a long line of Bills QB fails.

The point is still the same.

 

Take a little less money and the team benefits from it.

Posted (edited)

 

Who knows, nobody does. EVERY POST IS SPECULATION, but on these message boards users claim them as facts. Nobody knows anything in regards to Tyrod Taylor, other than he is FORSURE going to be the 2017 Buffalo Bills starting QB. Stop reading into stuff and trying to develop a gameplan like you people are GM's. Watch the draft, watch the training camp, and watch the Bills games. Why are you trying to question every last thing about everything

 

The only fact we know, is Tyrod Taylor is a 2 time pro bowl QB and will be starting for the Bills this year. Lets discuss draft options instead of making up arguments that favor YOUR individual position. I try to sit back and follow the Bills but these posts but most users are undoubtedly biased and have a clear mission to bash Tyrod in every wy possible. Does he have weaknesses? Yes. Does he have strengths? Yes. Is he our STARTER? Yes. What is there to discuss?

Who knows? Nobody does. Right

 

Name an instance when a 8? year professional athlete whom is yet to make any serious money at his craft left MILLIONS on the table so he could remain with a perennial loser..all while being in the prime of his career.

 

Informed speculation is always more worthy of a discussion than just throwing out misleading comparisons.

Edited by Commonsense
Posted

Who knows? Nobody does. Right

 

Name an instance when a 8? year professional athlete whom is yet to make any serious money at his craft left MILLIONS on the table so he could remain with a perennial loser?

 

Informed speculation is always more worthy of a discussion than just throwing out misleading comparisons.

 

He wants to win, and knows how close we are to doing so. No idea what story you're trying to make up here? Reaching like Jordan in Space Jam, terrible point.

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