FireChan Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 No i have no idea.... Well see if a QB throws 100 times and his receivers drop 10 balls, that's the same drop rate as a QB who throws 50 times and his receivers drop 5 balls. Crazy, huh? It's almost like "throwing less" doesn't matter at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 All of the stats I just listed were 2016 compared to 2015. You're welcome to disagree but the numbers almost across the board and the eye test disagree with you. TT did enough to not tank the offense. But he still played worse than in 2015. I actually agree with you about the offense. It was better under Lynn than Roman mainly because it was more about ball control and moving the chains. Roman's offense had this "all-or-nothing" mentality that got really frustrating. When a team has a 3rd and medium down and the play-design is a shot to the end zone on a relatively consistent basis, something is wrong. Lynn actually focused on moving the chains and keeping the offense on the field, which was really reflected in the team's 3 and out % and TOP under Lynn (with Taylor) for those 13 games. Taylor was underwhelming in 2016 compared to 2015, but he actually was an important part of why Lynn's offense was successful in that respect, at least. In 2015 Taylor was near the bottom of the league in terms of 3rd down conversion % on passes on 3rd down while in 2016 he was in the top half of the league. He was also significantly better at executing in the red zone after helping to keep those extended drives alive with those 3rd down conversions. Scored more. Rushed more. Ran more plays per drive. Scored more points per drive. Had more yards per drive. Had more time per drive. Had less 3 and outs. Had a higher score percentage. TT sucked. His individual stats all went down. Everyone else played great. And again Taylor was a reason the team scored more, ran more plays per drive, scored more points per drive, had more yards per drive, had less 3 and outs per drive, and had a higher score percentage. Saying "TT sucked, Everyone else played great" is incredibly misleading... and wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 (edited) I actually agree with you about the offense. It was better under Lynn than Roman mainly because it was more about ball control and moving the chains. Roman's offense had this "all-or-nothing" mentality that got really frustrating. When a team has a 3rd and medium down and the play-design is a shot to the end zone on a relatively consistent basis, something is wrong. Lynn actually focused on moving the chains and keeping the offense on the field, which was really reflected in the team's 3 and out % and TOP under Lynn (with Taylor) for those 13 games. Taylor was underwhelming in 2016 compared to 2015, but he actually was an important part of why Lynn's offense was successful in that respect, at least. In 2015 Taylor was near the bottom of the league in terms of 3rd down conversion % on passes on 3rd down while in 2016 he was in the top half of the league. He was also significantly better at executing in the red zone after helping to keep those extended drives alive with those 3rd down conversions. And again Taylor was a reason the team scored more, ran more plays per drive, scored more points per drive, had more yards per drive, had less 3 and outs per drive, and had a higher score percentage. Saying "TT sucked, Everyone else played great" is incredibly misleading... and wrong. How so? He played worse across the board. Clearly they didn't need him to do what they did in 2015 because they beat that production in 2016 with him being worse. Hockey analogy. If I'm a crappy goalie and my team wins 50 games, then next year I play even crappier and my team wins 60, would you say I'm a reason we won all those games? No. Edited April 4, 2017 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Real McClappy Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Loosely translated: "I, Thurman#1, am one of those level people. You, John, and those like you who believe Taylor could improve can go on believing what you like, but we 'level-people' are justified in belittling you and your delusional opinions while you can't touch my opinion, because I'm almost certainly right, as I nearly always am." Did you act the same way about Fitz in the past the way you do about Tyrod? Tyrod Taylor is a simple stop gap QB. Hopefully the Bills find another QB soon or another coaching staff will bit the dust along with another GM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Your argument would hold more water if "drive killing drops" didn't happen all the time to every team in the NFL. TT had 11 dropped passes in 15 games in 2016. Good for 25th in the league grossly. By drop percentage, he had the 11th lowest in the NFL counting QB's with over 300 attempts. https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/dropped-passes-by-quarterback/2016/ It's a hard argument to swallow that our WR's were underwhelming in the drop category with the numbers above. Especially when you consider TT's accuracy issues. That chart is one I see people reference. I'm sorry, but it's really hard to trust those kinds of charts. I remember 2 drops from the New England game alone that were pretty clearly plays the WR simply should have made, but didn't: 2-5-BUF 12(3:59) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short left to 85-C.Clay. Through receiver's hands at BUF 15, crossing from middle. 2-24-BUF 30(11:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Clay (32-D.McCourty) [91-J.Collins]. Receiver and coverage at NE 49. Both of those were from the 2nd New England game. That was also the game where Brandon Tate had the clear and obvious drop on the medium range throw along the right sideline; that one was actually charted as a drop. One guy I only found out about last year was a guy named Cian Fahey who worked for Football Outsiders for a while and creates his own QB catalogue every year. He actually charts accurate vs. inaccurate throws for every single NFL QB and even has categories called "failed receptions" and "created receptions." Obviously these would be human eyes watching every single snap from every single NFL QB, but I think it'll be interesting to see some more qualitative comparative data when it comes to some of these QB & WR discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 How so? He played worse across the board. Clearly they didn't need him to do what they did in 2015 because they beat that production in 2016 with him being worse. Hockey analogy. If I'm a crappy goalie and my team wins 50 games, then next year I play even crappier and my team wins 60, would you say I'm a reason we won all those games? No. No, he was not simply "worse across the board." It's gross exaggerations like that that are just frustrating and lead posters like John to saying there's "Taylor hate." In reality, I don't think John was referring to people hating Taylor the person, more people being "haters," which is very different and more about blind bias and a lack of any objectivity whatsoever. Of course, I could be wrong... But no, he wasn't "worse across the board." For one, he was significantly better in 2016 in the red zone: 2015- 17/31, 90 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT. Passer Rating of 86.4 2016- 30/50, 240 yards, 11 TDs, 0 INTs. Passer Rating of 111.7 Also, Taylor's passer rating with less than 2 minutes remaining in the half still noticeably improved from 2015 (61.0) to 2016 (85.2). That's a significant improvement. And with 66 passes in 2016 and 53 in 2015, you can't call it a small sample size. Also, in 2015 he was at the bottom of the league with a 37.2% conversion % those 3rd down passes converting for 1st down. In 2016, he improved to 14th in the NFL and improved by more than 3% to 41.5%. Those are 3 aspects of Quarterbacking most people would consider pretty important and Taylor improved noticeably in all 3 phases, so again, implying that Taylor just sucked and was lucky that the rest of the team made up for him sucking just isn't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 (edited) No, he was not simply "worse across the board." It's gross exaggerations like that that are just frustrating and lead posters like John to saying there's "Taylor hate." In reality, I don't think John was referring to people hating Taylor the person, more people being "haters," which is very different and more about blind bias and a lack of any objectivity whatsoever. Of course, I could be wrong... But no, he wasn't "worse across the board." For one, he was significantly better in 2016 in the red zone: 2015- 17/31, 90 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT. Passer Rating of 86.4 2016- 30/50, 240 yards, 11 TDs, 0 INTs. Passer Rating of 111.7 Also, Taylor's passer rating with less than 2 minutes remaining in the half still noticeably improved from 2015 (61.0) to 2016 (85.2). That's a significant improvement. And with 66 passes in 2016 and 53 in 2015, you can't call it a small sample size. Also, in 2015 he was at the bottom of the league with a 37.2% conversion % those 3rd down passes converting for 1st down. In 2016, he improved to 14th in the NFL and improved by more than 3% to 41.5%. Those are 3 aspects of Quarterbacking most people would consider pretty important and Taylor improved noticeably in all 3 phases, so again, implying that Taylor just sucked and was lucky that the rest of the team made up for him sucking just isn't right. Mostly worse across the board then. It's great that he improved in critical situations but I'm reluctant to give him a pass for his play suffering elsewhere and overshadowing that. Edited April 4, 2017 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Mostly worse across the board then. It's great that he improved in critical situations but I'm reluctant to give him a pass for his play suffering elsewhere and overshadowing that. Fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 I actually agree with you about the offense. It was better under Lynn than Roman mainly because it was more about ball control and moving the chains. Roman's offense had this "all-or-nothing" mentality that got really frustrating. When a team has a 3rd and medium down and the play-design is a shot to the end zone on a relatively consistent basis, something is wrong. Lynn actually focused on moving the chains and keeping the offense on the field, which was really reflected in the team's 3 and out % and TOP under Lynn (with Taylor) for those 13 games. Taylor was underwhelming in 2016 compared to 2015, but he actually was an important part of why Lynn's offense was successful in that respect, at least. In 2015 Taylor was near the bottom of the league in terms of 3rd down conversion % on passes on 3rd down while in 2016 he was in the top half of the league. He was also significantly better at executing in the red zone after helping to keep those extended drives alive with those 3rd down conversions. And again Taylor was a reason the team scored more, ran more plays per drive, scored more points per drive, had more yards per drive, had less 3 and outs per drive, and had a higher score percentage. Saying "TT sucked, Everyone else played great" is incredibly misleading... and wrong. It was "better" under Lynn for about 2.8 points per game. Last season I thought that would be enough but now I see that I underestimated that. It also grew "stale" under Lynn much like it did under Roman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 It was "better" under Lynn for about 2.8 points per game. Last season I thought that would be enough but now I see that I underestimated that. It also grew "stale" under Lynn much like it did under Roman. 2.8 points a game is a lot considering how many games are decided by 3 points or less in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 (edited) Saying TT wasn't as sharp as he was in 2015 does not mean that people are saying he sucks. It's s huge reason people are referred to as "The CoT". You guys need to comprehend this. All the stats in the world won't justify - not winning games when the running game gets stuffed. not overcoming an 8 point deficit in the 4th QTR. Here you go again with cherry picking stats Also, in 2015 he was at the bottom of the league with a 37.2% conversion % those 3rd down passes converting for 1st down. In 2016, he improved to 14th in the NFL and improved by more than 3% to 41.5%. What is the "teams" overall 3rd down converting for 1st down rate? Taylor is also involved in those plays is he not? 2.8 points a game is a lot considering how many games are decided by 3 points or less in the NFL. Which is why I thought it would be enough. Edited April 4, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 He's still the 20th ranked qb of 32. Not exactly playoff material. On to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffismagic Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 The idea that Tyrod Taylor is a bargain is wrong. His salary cap number was kept low this year but the Bills owe him 18,000,000 next year. If we cut him we create dead cap. Terrible idea to saddle a team that needs to rebuild and replenish its roster with an expensive bridge QB. Not only that, if we draft a top QB they have to play in an offense designed around this limited BRIDGE QB. Just fantastic strategy. Let's ruin another QB because we our catering to Tyrod, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 The idea that Tyrod Taylor is a bargain is wrong. His salary cap number was kept low this year but the Bills owe him 18,000,000 next year. If we cut him we create dead cap. Terrible idea to saddle a team that needs to rebuild and replenish its roster with an expensive bridge QB. Not only that, if we draft a top QB they have to play in an offense designed around this limited BRIDGE QB. Just fantastic strategy. Let's ruin another QB because we our catering to Tyrod, where do you get Dennison's offense is only designed for TT? who was it designed for in Denver? Did McD bring in Dennison because he only had a designed offense that would only cater to certain players, in this case TT? I think your exaggerating here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffismagic Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 where do you get Dennison's offense is only designed for TT? who was it designed for in Denver? Did McD bring in Dennison because he only had a designed offense that would only cater to certain players, in this case TT? I think your exaggerating here. The offense will be designed around Tyrod. That offense will not be the best one for developing a pocket passer behind him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 (edited) the bills offense scored the 7th most points "IF" the bill defense had given up the 7th least points, the bills would have made the playoffs and TT would be viewed alot differently Edited April 4, 2017 by papazoid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 The offense will be designed around Tyrod. That offense will not be the best one for developing a pocket passer behind him. well, if that's the case, and say it does fail. don't you think McD would find a replacement going forward if it did fail rather than keep him (Dennison) and ruin the so called drafted pocket passer QB, assuming they even draft one? I think before crying fail it would be best to allow it to play out as you or I or anyone on this board (aside from those who are very adamant about TT failing) do not know if the Dennison/Taylor combo is going to fail or succeed? you may try to not put the cart before the horse or exaggerate about it failing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffismagic Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 well, if that's the case, and say it does fail. don't you think McD would find a replacement going forward if it did fail rather than keep him (Dennison) and ruin the so called drafted pocket passer QB, assuming they even draft one? I think before crying fail it would be best to allow it to play out as you or I or anyone on this board (aside from those who are very adamant about TT failing) do not know if the Dennison/Taylor combo is going to fail or succeed? you may try to not put the cart before the horse or exaggerate about it failing. I don't think you would ruin a Trubisky or Mahomes, just slow down his development. My fear is that McDermott is more focused on the today and not worried about tomorrow. That is how most coaches operate and we need someone to rein that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 TT is today the QB of the future at #10 is tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 (edited) I don't think you would ruin a Trubisky or Mahomes, just slow down his development. My fear is that McDermott is more focused on the today and not worried about tomorrow. That is how most coaches operate and we need someone to rein that in. that is your fear. doesn't mean it's true. I disagree, you do focus more on today as today's focus can determine the future. and so far, it looks like he is building not only a staff and team but a culture that should not cause worry but bring encouragement for tomorrow. sometimes it's best to look for the positive possibilities then to see nothing but negative results that frankly, haven't even transpired yet, and may not. McD is building for the present and the future and personally I think it looks like chances are good it will be a bright one under his rein...? Edited April 4, 2017 by DaBillsFanSince1973 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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