It's Hard To Win In The NFL

[H2o]

We've all discussed the great teams of recent years and how they do so. Ownership, FO personnel, coaching staffs, and the players all work in conjunction for these organizations. Stability in all areas of these organizations working together to produce results are present. Let's analyze the Bills.

 

Ownership:

The Pegula's swept in to save the day. They bought the team to keep it in Buffalo. They already owned the Sabres, but the NFL is an entirely different beast. They unexpectedly had the residing coach quit and made a rookie mistake by falling for the "flashy" hire of Rex Ryan. Disastrous. Now they look to right the ship with McDermott. I believe they truly want to win and will do whatever it takes to reach their goal. Good people, driven to win, and committed to the area. I give ownership a check.

 

FO Personnel:

This is where the mixed bag comes in. I, myself, think Whaley has done a quality job raising the talent level of this team. The drafts have been a mixed bag, but with 3 coaches since he took over his job has been challenging to say the least. Scheme changes and trying to get corresponding players for those have hamstrung his efforts. Stability is needed for Whaley and his scouts to be truly judged IMO, but that's just my two. Even though I like Whaley and think he has done fairly well as a whole, I still give this area of our organization an incomplete.

 

Coaching Staff:

Marrone, but more so Jim Schwartz, had this team headed in the right direction. Defense was top 5 and the offense did just enough. After a 9-7 season Doug chose to use an opt out clause to search for greener pastures. That left us in a coaching search. Instead of making the right hire at the time, which IMO would have been Jim Schwartz, the Pegs got suckered into Rex Ryan. A loud-mouthed, arrogant clown who refused to see that the NFL had passed his system by. It was evident the last 3 years in NY and completely obvious in Buffalo. His approach set this team back and turned a top 5 defense into a bottom 3rd one. He didn't admit defeat, he instead brought in his brother who was worse than he was. The results that followed cost him his job and likely provided the nails in the coffin that was his coaching career. On to the McDermott hire. We do not yet know how this will pan out. We have nothing to go by on the field. All we have is an appearance of an organization that has now become tight-lipped and dealing with all processes internally. That in itself is a welcome change from the three ring circus that was OBD the last couple of seasons. Still, the coaching staff has been able to show nothing to us all as of yet so an incomplete is all I can give here.

 

Players:

The team has talent. People in frustration, or just because they don't like a player or two, or because we lost a player or two may say this team does not. The truth of the matter is we do. A top 5 RB with a hell of a compliment in TD Mike, a solid OL outside of RT, one of the better TE's, Sammy, and the interchangeable pieces in the front four on defense is one of the better in the league. People single out the QB, and I'm not a big Tyrod fan, but to think we can't win with him is simply not true. The Ravens and Bucs won SB's with Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson respectively. If McD can get our top 5 defense back, that even with the changes in the secondary is very possible IMO, then Tyrod and the running game may be seen in a completely different light. Even by me. Our players need to be put in a position to succeed. The coaching staff needs to play to their strengths. The square peg in a round hole method does not work. If we can get back to being an attacking defense, with two of the best DT's in the NFL leading the charge, then we can make some noise. The overall health in key positions is also important. The year we were top 5 we stayed fairly healthy along the defensive front 7. Finding a WR to pair with Sammy and couple of key cogs in this loaded defensive draft will be of utmost importance. Roster? Are we close? I think so, close to ending the playoff drought anyway. I don't think we are near competing for a SB by any means. But to get in and see what happens, I think we are right in the fringe. Because of the few needs we need to hit on in the draft I give the roster a not quite there yet.

 

Winning cures all. If we can start by getting in the playoffs, then building on that, the whole culture of the organization will change before our very eyes. Hopefully we can get away from the dysfunction that has haunted us for so long and become a model of consistency and stability like the rest of the upper echelon teams in the NFL. Hopefully, HOPEFULLY, soon for all of our sakes. We deserve a team and organization we can believe in again.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

We've all discussed the great teams of recent years and how they do so. Ownership, FO personnel, coaching staffs, and the players all work in conjunction for these organizations. Stability in all areas of these organizations working together to produce results are present. Let's analyze the Bills.

 

Ownership:

The Pegula's swept in to save the day. They bought the team to keep it in Buffalo. They already owned the Sabres, but the NFL is an entirely different beast. They unexpectedly had the residing coach quit and made a rookie mistake by falling for the "flashy" hire of Rex Ryan. Disastrous. Now they look to right the ship with McDermott. I believe they truly want to win and will do whatever it takes to reach their goal. Good people, driven to win, and committed to the area. I give ownership a check.

 

FO Personnel:

This is where the mixed bag comes in. I, myself, think Whaley has done a quality job raising the talent level of this team. The drafts have been a mixed bag, but with 3 coaches since he took over his job has been challenging to say the least. Scheme changes and trying to get corresponding players for those have hamstrung his efforts. Stability is needed for Whaley and his scouts to be truly judged IMO, but that's just my two. Even though I like Whaley and think he has done fairly well as a whole, I still give this area of our organization an incomplete.

 

Coaching Staff:

Marrone, but more so Jim Schwartz, had this team headed in the right direction. Defense was top 5 and the offense did just enough. After a 9-7 season Doug chose to use an opt out clause to search for greener pastures. That left us in a coaching search. Instead of making the right hire at the time, which IMO would have been Jim Schwartz, the Pegs got suckered into Rex Ryan. A loud-mouthed, arrogant clown who refused to see that the NFL had passed his system by. It was evident the last 3 years in NY and completely obvious in Buffalo. His approach set this team back and turned a top 5 defense into a bottom 3rd one. He didn't admit defeat, he instead brought in his brother who was worse than he was. The results that followed cost him his job and likely provided the nails in the coffin that was his coaching career. On to the McDermott hire. We do not yet know how this will pan out. We have nothing to go by on the field. All we have is an appearance of an organization that has now become tight-lipped and dealing with all processes internally. That in itself is a welcome change from the three ring circus that was OBD the last couple of seasons. Still, the coaching staff has been able to show nothing to us all as of yet so an incomplete is all I can give here.

 

Players:

The team has talent. People in frustration, or just because they don't like a player or two, or because we lost a player or two may say this team does not. The truth of the matter is we do. A top 5 RB with a hell of a compliment in TD Mike, a solid OL outside of RT, one of the better TE's, Sammy, and the interchangeable pieces in the front four on defense is one of the better in the league. People single out the QB, and I'm not a big Tyrod fan, but to think we can't win with him is simply not true. The Ravens and Bucs won SB's with Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson respectively. If McD can get our top 5 defense back, that even with the changes in the secondary is very possible IMO, then Tyrod and the running game may be seen in a completely different light. Even by me. Our players need to be put in a position to succeed. The coaching staff needs to play to their strengths. The square peg in a round hole method does not work. If we can get back to being an attacking defense, with two of the best DT's in the NFL leading the charge, then we can make some noise. The overall health in key positions is also important. The year we were top 5 we stayed fairly healthy along the defensive front 7. Finding a WR to pair with Sammy and couple of key cogs in this loaded defensive draft will be of utmost importance. Roster? Are we close? I think so, close to ending the playoff drought anyway. I don't think we are near competing for a SB by any means. But to get in and see what happens, I think we are right in the fringe. Because of the few needs we need to hit on in the draft I give the roster a not quite there yet.

 

Winning cures all. If we can start by getting in the playoffs, then building on that, the whole culture of the organization will change before our very eyes. Hopefully we can get away from the dysfunction that has haunted us for so long and become a model of consistency and stability like the rest of the upper echelon teams in the NFL. Hopefully, HOPEFULLY, soon for all of our sakes. We deserve a team and organization we can believe in again.

Wow! Great post I think I could have written it myself. I have a new friend.

 

Having said that, get ready for the onslaught.

 

We all know compensatory picks seal the deal to success!

[Negan]

I don't think it's that hard to win in the NFL, my 3rd grade cousin would have won the superbowl if he was the Falcons head coach up 28-3

[WhoTom]

I don't think it's that hard to win in the NFL, my 3rd grade cousin would have won the superbowl if he was the Falcons head coach up 28-3

 

Yeah, but could your 3rd grade cousin have built that lead in the first place?

[bigdogtim]

I will skip the Jauron jokes and agree that it is hard to win in the NFL, and over the last several years has gotten even harder. The instant replays and internet experts have called everything into question and put every decision under a microscope and out of context in the flow of the game.

 

On top of that, it has become the No Fun League and almost touch football. While this is good for player health and safety, it creates situations that favor superior athletes to superior scheme all too often. I think part of Belichick's** success is that he plugs in athletes to take advantage of these changes moreso than others. Success has afforded him that luxury though.

 

Rex tried to do something similar on offense by going smash mouth to avoid the no touching rules, but was surprisingly oblivious on the defensive side of the ball. Maybe Matt Patricia is a bigger asset to the Pats*** than we give him credit for being?

 

I trust that I used sufficient asterisks.***

[jeffismagic]

 

Yeah, but could your 3rd grade cousin have built that lead in the first place?

 

Shanahan was one of the few people on the planet that could have gotten that lead. Too bad Dan Quinn didn't rein him in and manage the game properly.

Edited March 18, 2017 by jeffismagic

[Chuck Wagon]

I don't think Schwartz was the right guy for head coach, I think he's an excellent defensive coordinator, but he seemed in over his head as HC in Tennesee. I think the right move would have been to bring in Hue Jackson as HC, allow him to develop his offense and retain Schwartz as DC with full control over that side of the ball at all costs.

 

Rex was a complete disaster. Any coach who inherits a top 5 defense and sets about making it better by completely overhauling the scheme does not belong at HC in this league. Our window to make a run was the last couple of years and Rex made sure to personally slam that shut (as well as slamming shut his career window).

 

 

I have a hard time judging Whaley. Our talent level has certainly risen under him, he's performed well in the early part of the draft and with under the radar FA pickups, but we are without a franchise QB, have several holes on the roster without resources to fully address them and have been in bad salary cap shape, those fall at his feet. I think there's certainly better GMs, but by the same token I think he's better than anyone we had running the franchise before him. The more concerning factor is Russ Brandon's continued presence and continued influence on the team. The guy is a cockroach who won't go away.

 

 

I do think Taylor can win, but we need to follow the Chiefs model, but our defense isn't near their level. We've lost Mario, Kiko, Gilmore, Bradham, Williams, Graham, McKelvin off the Schwartz defense, with some young replacements for a few spots (and no replacements for others) and none of replacements have shown they can hit the level we got out of those guys that year. That's where the real talent drain has hit hard, partially due to age but mainly due to Rex throwing away quality players for not being scheme fits.

[Elite Poster]

The offense was hot garbage with marrone.

[cd1]

 

Nice OP, Nice

 

 

Edited March 18, 2017 by cd1

[jeffismagic]

I don't think Schwartz was the right guy for head coach, I think he's an excellent defensive coordinator, but he seemed in over his head as HC in Tennesee. I think the right move would have been to bring in Hue Jackson as HC, allow him to develop his offense and retain Schwartz as DC with full control over that side of the ball at all costs.

 

Rex was a complete disaster. Any coach who inherits a top 5 defense and sets about making it better by completely overhauling the scheme does not belong at HC in this league. Our window to make a run was the last couple of years and Rex made sure to personally slam that shut (as well as slamming shut his career window).

 

 

I have a hard time judging Whaley. Our talent level has certainly risen under him, he's performed well in the early part of the draft and with under the radar FA pickups, but we are without a franchise QB, have several holes on the roster without resources to fully address them and have been in bad salary cap shape, those fall at his feet. I think there's certainly better GMs, but by the same token I think he's better than anyone we had running the franchise before him. The more concerning factor is Russ Brandon's continued presence and continued influence on the team. The guy is a cockroach who won't go away.

 

 

I do think Taylor can win, but we need to follow the Chiefs model, but our defense isn't near their level. We've lost Mario, Kiko, Gilmore, Bradham, Williams, Graham, McKelvin off the Schwartz defense, with some young replacements for a few spots (and no replacements for others) and none of replacements have shown they can hit the level we got out of those guys that year. That's where the real talent drain has hit hard, partially due to age but mainly due to Rex throwing away quality players for not being scheme fits.

 

Kiko never played under Schwartz but he was a loss from the 2013-2014 group. Searcy also was never replaced when Rex was here.

 

I think Whaley did create a playoff roster by 2015 but Rex and his scheme change kept them out that year. But Whaley now has to deal with a ridiculous organizational structure where we have a meddling owner, Head Coach that is equal to the GM or stronger, and a personnel department that seems tasked these last few years with quick fixes and pushes (last year's 3 picks on an inside linebacker to save the Rex defense).

 

During this period the Bills have thrown away draft picks and shown no coherent long term vision. The future is bleak until we have a great football mind empowered to create a plan for long term success.

[BillsPride12]

It's Hard to Win in The NFL is the only concept the Bills have mastered over the last 17 years

[TPS]

Nice summary of the issues. Re Whaley, I've argued his drafting should be judged starting in 2014, his first full year as GM with his key staff in place, specifically Monos. 75% of their picks are currently on the roster.

[Chuck Wagon]

 

Kiko never played under Schwartz but he was a loss from the 2013-2014 group. Searcy also was never replaced when Rex was here.

 

I think Whaley did create a playoff roster by 2015 but Rex and his scheme change kept them out that year. But Whaley now has to deal with a ridiculous organizational structure where we have a meddling owner, Head Coach that is equal to the GM or stronger, and a personnel department that seems tasked these last few years with quick fixes and pushes (last year's 3 picks on an inside linebacker to save the Rex defense).

 

During this period the Bills have thrown away draft picks and shown no coherent long term vision. The future is bleak until we have a great football mind empowered to create a plan for long term success.

 

 

We are on the same page. Some here can view "comp picks" as a joke, but it's not a coincidence that New England, Baltimore, Green Bay, Pittsburgh etc rarely dabble in FA much and treat draft picks in general, but comp picks too as gold. Filling 5 holes with under the radar FAs every single year is not a model to success, neither is hitting an offseason with almost half the roster spaces unfilled. A franchise should never operate under a "playoffs or bust" mandate, if ownership doesn't trust the front office to build a sustainable winner from the ground up then the front office should already be replaced, not allowed to try to prove itself short term by spiting the long term.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Well written, thanks.

 

1) I agree on Whaley. Changing the scheme ultimately changes who he is trying to acquire and it really messes up the "building" of a roster

 

2) I agree on the talent perspective. Last year we had a roster with playoff talkent IMO. I believe that the coaching staff restricted them from reaching their full potential. Lack of leadership from the head coach and a lazy approach In practice, tagged with the player friendly, lack of discipline approach was reciprocated onto the field.

 

I'm hoping McDermott will hold the players to a higher standard and will stick around long enough for the FO to find players that will work well in his schemes

[jeffismagic]

 

 

We are on the same page. Some here can view "comp picks" as a joke, but it's not a coincidence that New England, Baltimore, Green Bay, Pittsburgh etc rarely dabble in FA much and treat draft picks in general, but comp picks too as gold. Filling 5 holes with under the radar FAs every single year is not a model to success, neither is hitting an offseason with almost half the roster spaces unfilled. A franchise should never operate under a "playoffs or bust" mandate, if ownership doesn't trust the front office to build a sustainable winner from the ground up then the front office should already be replaced, not allowed to try to prove itself short term by spiting the long term.

 

All of the teams you mentioned have front offices and GMs that take the long view at the draft. Pegula defended his org structure as saying it was common. Common with who? Other teams that lose. The only team you mentioned that allows their head coach incredible power at the draft is New England and Belichick operates as a GM, not your average coach.

 

Most coaches think in terms of tactics. Good GM's think in terms of strategy. Bills are following the model of teams that lose.

Edited March 18, 2017 by jeffismagic

[Green Lightning]

Nice OP, Nice

 

 

God I hate emoticons, especially of this ilk. However I agree on the OP's thoughtful post, but a simple +1 would convey the meaning without the bad clip art.

[Saxum]

I don't think it's that hard to win in the NFL, my 3rd grade cousin would have won the superbowl if he was the Falcons head coach up 28-3

Ask him next time you see him in hall between classes and let us know if all of the kids in your school are truly clueless.

I don't think Schwartz was the right guy for head coach, I think he's an excellent defensive coordinator, but he seemed in over his head as HC in Tennesee. I think the right move would have been to bring in Hue Jackson as HC, allow him to develop his offense and retain Schwartz as DC with full control over that side of the ball at all costs.

 

Schwartz was also formerly the head coach of the NFL's Detroit Lions.

Edited March 18, 2017 by Koolaid

[snafu]

I don't think anyone should give ownership a pass, like the OP does.

I like the summary, and it highlights my thought.

 

-- Whaley and the scouting department have had a hard time keeping up with coaching and scheme changes.

-- there have been three head coaches since the Pegulas took over. I'm making a presumption that there was more to the Marrone story than just saying he wanted to move to greener pastures. If so, then that's an ownership problem too. But in any event, their poor choice of Marrone's replacement is squarely on ownership.

-- the fact that the team has talent is not so relevant because of the first two statements. There is currently a mishmosh of talent which doesn't fit any one scheme. This is directly related to the coaching turnover and the resulting scramble to change personnel to fit new schemes.

 

I don't think anyone can say that the Pegulas aren't trying. I think it is safe to say that they haven't mastered when to be hands-off and when to get involved. Some owners never get it right. I hope that's not the case with the Bills.

[BillsVet]

Nice summary of the issues. Re Whaley, I've argued his drafting should be judged starting in 2014, his first full year as GM with his key staff in place, specifically Monos. 75% of their picks are currently on the roster.

It's not saying much when a player isn't cut during his rookie contract.

[cd1]

God I hate emoticons, especially of this ilk. However I agree on the OP's thoughtful post, but a simple +1 would convey the meaning without the bad clip art.

WOW - tuff crowd