GoBills808 Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 stop using big words you dont understand Your talking like you actually know something You dont The problem is the if Live in reality This is a pretty good summation of the pro-Taylor advocates. Well done John.
transplantbillsfan Posted March 16, 2017 Author Posted March 16, 2017 It has been widely reported who the Bills were looking at once they decided not to pick up the option. Ignore it if you want. Yes, it was also widely reported that the Bills would inevitably be moving on from Tyrod and finding a new QB when last season ended. How did that work out? I'm actually really surprised those guys have jobs because it's really just mostly a joke.
jeffismagic Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 You need to go easy on these "I know the inner workings of the bills" posts You look like a buffoon John, don't be angry because you are not converting anyone to the CoT. Let me give you a hint. Real QBs acquire fans through their play. It speaks for itself without cult members massaging stats to make their favorite bridge QB look better than he is. Are you mad at the Bills for asking Tyrod take a paycut? Take it up with them.
HappyDays Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 (edited) Is this the part where you credit Taylor for the rushing game? Well let's see. Gillislee and McCoy were #1 and #3 respectively in rush YPA. Gillislee' 5.71 YPA is the best YPA since... well since anything at least in the last 10 years. Maybe if you go far back enough you'll find a RB that beats it. Funny enough last year's leader was Thomas Rawls whose QB was... Russell Wilson. You may see the beginnings of a pattern starting to emerge. But maybe Gilllislee has just been a hidden rushing prodigy all along, and it's just a coincidence that mobile QBs have had their RBs leading the NFL in YPA the last two seasons. Now use some common sense - if you're a defensive coordinator and you know Tyrod Taylor can run at any moment, don you have to leave a player on him? A player that would otherwise be on a RB for example? Edited March 16, 2017 by HappyDays
transplantbillsfan Posted March 16, 2017 Author Posted March 16, 2017 Trans, I know sometimes some of the posters push your buttons with your Tyrod threads, but I just wanted to say I for one enjoy them myself. I enjoyed them over at the old board also. I think you post good info and make good points when it comes down to the QB position. A lot of ppl would not take the time for threads like that. Anyway, just wanted to say that lol. Keep up the good info man.And I will share my gummy bears with you. Thanks man... much appreciated! I'm really not going to start threads much at all over here since I know the general animosity some posters have towards the subject, even over here. That's why I just concentrated all my efforts into a single long thread. Any other stats I find and/or compile I'll just stick here.
RevWarRifleman Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 Transplantbillsfan, congratulations on putting the longest post EVER on the board! This one will never be broken. Mainly, his ability to extend plays. But man, he's got to improve his game in other areas if he wants to help the Bills get to & win some playoff games. Things he needs to step up his game on: anticipating routes better where he gets the ball out quicker & lets the receiver run to the ball. Another one throwing to the middle of the field.
GoBills808 Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 Well let's see. Gillislee and McCoy were #1 and #3 respectively in rush YPA. Gillislee' 5.71 YPA is the best YPA since... well since anything at least in the last 10 years. Maybe if you go far back enough you'll find a RB that beats it. Funny enough last year's leader was Thomas Rawls whose QB was... Russell Wilson. You may see the beginnings of a pattern starting to emerge. But maybe Gilllislee has just been a hidden rushing prodigy all along, and it's just a coincidence that mobile QBs have had their RBs leading the NFL in YPA the last two seasons. Now use some common sense - if you're a defensive coordinator and you know Tyrod Taylor can run at any moment, don you have to leave a player on him? A player that would otherwise be on a RB for example? And the two years before that it was DeMarco Murray and Justin Forsett respectively, I believe. Neither of whom had particularly mobile quarterbacks. So just to get this straight, your argument in favor of Taylor is now...Mike Gillislee's YPA? How much further are you going to go with this?
John from Riverside Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 John, don't be angry because you are not converting anyone to the CoT. Let me give you a hint. Real QBs acquire fans through their play. It speaks for itself without cult members massaging stats to make their favorite bridge QB look better than he is. Are you mad at the Bills for asking Tyrod take a paycut? Take it up with them. "massaging stats" You mean providing data to support their opinion? As opposed to "I know what the bills are actually thinking.....i dont have a shred of real evidence to the fact but hey I KNOW"
HappyDays Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 (edited) And the two years before that it was DeMarco Murray and Justin Forsett respectively, I believe. Neither of whom had particularly mobile quarterbacks. So just to get this straight, your argument in favor of Taylor is now...Mike Gillislee's YPA? How much further are you going to go with this? Okay I'm done with this argument, it is actually plainly obvious to me without looking at stats that a mobile QB helps the run game. Plainly obvious. I figured I'd back it up with stats too but I see that's not your game so have fun. Edited March 16, 2017 by HappyDays
jeffismagic Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 "massaging stats" You mean providing data to support their opinion? As opposed to "I know what the bills are actually thinking.....i dont have a shred of real evidence to the fact but hey I KNOW" John, you might be lost but don't assume that life is as hard for everyone else. The Bills were not going to pick up the option. Fact. Bills were looking at Glennon and asking about Siemian. Fact Tyrod took a significant paycut after his agent inquired what else was out there. Fact. Tyrod got paid like a bridge QB. Fact. Sean McDermott said Tyrod was the best move for the Bills "at this time". Fact.
K-9 Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 Not sure how anyone can argue that a running QB doesn't help the running game. Of course it does and Tyrod certainly did. Tyrod needs to help the passing game as much as he helps the running game. That's the issue. Lets hope being in Dennison's system helps raise him to another level. While I think it's against the odds for a 2 year starter going into his seventh year to suddenly raise his ceiling, stranger things have happened. There is just no sense arguing the TT question any longer. He's our starter so we need to embrace that and hope for the best.
HappyDays Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 (edited) You realize we played the 2nd easiest schedule in the league in terms of opponent's pass defense, of course. You also weirdly credit the Eagles defense as a mark against Wentz, while ignoring the Bills' stellar run game that probably had more to do with propping up our QB because, well...it's actually the same side of the ball. https://mobile.twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/837691406944698368/photo/1 I'm using this for reference. It paints a pretty bleak picture, but really just confirms what I saw on Sundays last year. I meant to come back to this. 2nd easiest pass defense schedule according to what? Knowing what I know about how most football stats are calculated, I would guess they are using total yards. Which would be entirely wrong and go to prove nothing. Football Outsiders uses DVOA in their strength of schedule ratings which is a hundred times better than total yards, but they unfortunately do not keep track of pass/rush defense strength of schedule. So let me know if I'm mistaken on that but I'm willing to bet the Sharp site is using total yards. The rest of that do document is classic cherry picking. I took a quick look at some of those stats at the Washington Post advanced NFL stats tool and found what I expected, which is that those stats tell you nothing. For example Brian Hoyer leads the NFL in completion percentage in "close games." Aaron Rodgers is near the bottom. So what does it tell me to know that Tyrod doesn't perform well there, without context? All it shows is that Tyrod is imperfect, which is what we already knew. He has strengths and flaws. He has a career passer rating of 94.2. If he doesn't perform better this year he will likely be sent packing. DVOA in my opinion is the stat that controls for context more than any other so I usually defer to that. They had him 14th in DYAR/8th in DVOA in 2015, and 19th in both in 2016. And that doesn't account for his rushing either, those are pure passing stats. Meanwhile Wentz was 28th in DYAR/27th in DVOA in 2016. He was mostly abysmal after Week 4, like EJ Manuel bad for real. Going off just on-field performance so far, Tyrod is clearly the better choice for 2017, although beyond that it is harder to say at this point. Edited March 16, 2017 by HappyDays
jeffismagic Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 Not sure how anyone can argue that a running QB doesn't help the running game. Of course it does and Tyrod certainly did. Tyrod needs to help the passing game as much as he helps the running game. That's the issue. Lets hope being in Dennison's system helps raise him to another level. While I think it's against the odds for a 2 year starter going into his seventh year to suddenly raise his ceiling, stranger things have happened. There is just no sense arguing the TT question any longer. He's our starter so we need to embrace that and hope for the best. Are there play calls where the running threat can help the running back? Sure. But how much does a running QB actually help? No one has quantified this effect. Bandit tried but there were only 2 games without TT in 2015 and sample size too small.
transplantbillsfan Posted March 16, 2017 Author Posted March 16, 2017 John, you might be lost but don't assume that life is as hard for everyone else. The Bills were not going to pick up the option. Fact. Bills were looking at Glennon and asking about Siemian. Fact Tyrod took a significant paycut after his agent inquired what else was out there. Fact. Tyrod got paid like a bridge QB. Fact. Sean McDermott said Tyrod was the best move for the Bills "at this time". Fact. Saying something is a fact doesn't actually make an opinion a fact. You know that, right?
BuffaloHokie13 Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 Playing tougher pass defenses on more attempts, and a rookie to boot? Not really in the slightest. Think about it: if Taylor had more interceptions AND the fewest amount of attempts, he would literally be the worst QB in the league. As of now and probably for the rest of his career, he's going to need to be near the bottom in attempts to be marginally effective, and I don't think that's a realistic way to consistently win games from an offensive perspective. Tougher Pass Defenses? I'd say they were pretty similar, really. By DVOA, the average ranked Pass D Tyrod faced was 18.5. Compared to 16.9 for Wentz. By Passing Yards, the average ranked Pass D Tyrod faced was 12.9. Compared to 18.8 for Wentz. By Passing TDs, the average ranked Pass D Tyrod faced was 16.9. Compared to 15.3 for Wentz. They also had games against 5 common opponents (BAL, SEA, CIN, PIT, CLE). Tyrod in those games: 93 Completions, 136 Attempts, 968 Yards, 68.4% Completion, 7.12 YPA, 4 TD, 3 INT, 32 Rushes, 144 Rush Yards, 1 Rush TD. Ratings were 79.9, 90.8, 70.9, 100.1, and 105.2 respectively. Wentz in those games: 126 Completions, 215 Attempts, 1,275 Yards, 58.6% Completion, 5.9 YPA, 7 TD, 6 INT, 11 Rushes, 32 Rush Yards, 1 Rush TD. Ratings were 52.7, 61.2, 58.2, 125.9, and 101.0 respectively. In looking at the stats, it shows what we know. Tyrod was more steady and efficient, Wentz had major ups and downs and significantly more attempts. Again, on the year Wentz played in 1 more game than Tyrod, and he threw 171 more passes for 1 less TD, 8 more INTs, and 759 more yards. For me this year will be very interesting for Wentz. The Eagles went and upgraded his weapons, so it will be fun to see how he adjusts and if he takes the next step.
xRUSHx Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 (edited) What Tyrod did on the field in 2016? He handed off well to the best RB in the NFL, something any backup can do. He ran more then he threw. He couldn't see wide open receivers He had consecutive 3 and outs in big games He failed to win any big games He got one 300, too bad he needed a OT quarter to get it. What kept him around? Whaley of course, Whaley doesn't know it's a QB driven league it's why he will never be a GM of a playoff team. In short he wasn't good enough, want to stop Tyrod, make him be a QB. I expect the same from him and I expect once again OBD in trouble at the most important position in football come this time next season. Same old Tyrod, same old Bills, not good enough for primetime. Goodbye Whaley in 2019, take your other teams backup QBs with you. Edited March 16, 2017 by xRUSHx
thebandit27 Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 Are there play calls where the running threat can help the running back? Sure. But how much does a running QB actually help? No one has quantified this effect. Bandit tried but there were only 2 games without TT in 2015 and sample size too small. Actually, it's not that I "tried, but"...I actually did quantify it. If you don't accept it based upon the sample size, that's fine, but call it like it is: the data reflect that the run game was a half-yard-per-carry better with Taylor in the game than without him in 2015.
jeffismagic Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 Saying something is a fact doesn't actually make an opinion a fact. You know that, right? Which of the premises do you disagree with?
HappyDays Posted March 16, 2017 Posted March 16, 2017 Tougher Pass Defenses? I'd say they were pretty similar, really. By DVOA, the average ranked Pass D Tyrod faced was 18.5. Compared to 16.9 for Wentz. By Passing Yards, the average ranked Pass D Tyrod faced was 12.9. Compared to 18.8 for Wentz. By Passing TDs, the average ranked Pass D Tyrod faced was 16.9. Compared to 15.3 for Wentz. They also had games against 5 common opponents (BAL, SEA, CIN, PIT, CLE). Tyrod in those games: 93 Completions, 136 Attempts, 968 Yards, 68.4% Completion, 7.12 YPA, 4 TD, 3 INT, 32 Rushes, 144 Rush Yards, 1 Rush TD. Ratings were 79.9, 90.8, 70.9, 100.1, and 105.2 respectively. Wentz in those games: 126 Completions, 215 Attempts, 1,275 Yards, 58.6% Completion, 5.9 YPA, 7 TD, 6 INT, 11 Rushes, 32 Rush Yards, 1 Rush TD. Ratings were 52.7, 61.2, 58.2, 125.9, and 101.0 respectively. In looking at the stats, it shows what we know. Tyrod was more steady and efficient, Wentz had major ups and downs and significantly more attempts. Again, on the year Wentz played in 1 more game than Tyrod, and he threw 171 more passes for 1 less TD, 8 more INTs, and 759 more yards. For me this year will be very interesting for Wentz. The Eagles went and upgraded his weapons, so it will be fun to see how he adjusts and if he takes the next step. This is an excellent post, thank you for doing all that work.
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