Are we ramping up to war with North Korea?

[DC Tom]

 

North Korean nukes are miniaturized, can fit on missiles, report says

North Korea reportedly has produced a compact nuclear warhead that can be placed inside one of its advanced missiles – which are already believed to be capable of reaching half of the United States.

The jarring assessment was prepared in July by the Defense Intelligence Agency, according to The Washington Post. The Post was read parts of the DIA analysis and the document was verified by other U.S. officials, the newspaper reported.

Further, it is now believed that dictator Kim Jong Un may control up to 60 nuclear weapons

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/08/north-korean-nukes-are-miniaturized-can-fit-on-missiles-report-says.html

How could the U.S. know this for sure . Just like WMDs in Iraq ?

 

 

Indirectly, by measuring their uranium enrichment or plutonium generation capacity. That statement basically means "NK could have enriched enough fuel for 60 weapons, if their industry has been running at 100%."

 

And regarding missiles that can "reach" the US...that doesn't mean they'll hit ****. The CEP of those may well be measured in miles - which, yes, does matter even when you're aiming nukes.

[row_33]

More worrying, perhaps, than the fact they might be able to put them on ICBMs is that they probably already have tactical nuclear missiles. So an invasion would get real ugly real quick if we attacked. Cuba (Russia) had them in 1962 and we didn't know. Imagine if Kennedy had did what the military wanted and attacked?

 

It's kind of established now that 1962 was a completely justified response to JFK putting missiles in Turkey the prior year, and he was fully warned this would happen in response.

 

Through back channels JFK agreed to remove all the missiles in Turkey quietly over the next year in exchange for the Russians taking the missiles and ships back.

 

The worst part of the tapes is JFK musing that ASoviets putting missiles in Cuba would be just like the US putting them in Turkey, to which someone says "WE DID THAT LAST YEAR UNDER YOUR ORDERS MR. PRESIDENT..."

The other major deflator of the false history of Camelot is that NOBODY agreed with JFK's position to not go to war, some have been branded as doves in the negotiations, but NOBODY WAS.

[ALF]

Time to put trade sanctions on China . They are the only country able to control N Korea

[Tiberius]

It's kind of established now that 1962 was a completely justified response to JFK putting missiles in Turkey the prior year, and he was fully warned this would happen in response.

 

Through back channels JFK agreed to remove all the missiles in Turkey quietly over the next year in exchange for the Russians taking the missiles and ships back.

 

The worst part of the tapes is JFK musing that ASoviets putting missiles in Cuba would be just like the US putting them in Turkey, to which someone says "WE DID THAT LAST YEAR UNDER YOUR ORDERS MR. PRESIDENT..."The other major deflator of the false history of Camelot is that NOBODY agreed with JFK's position to not go to war, some have been branded as doves in the negotiations, but NOBODY WAS.

 

Those missiles were approved under Eisenhower but became operational under Kennedy.

[Deranged Rhino]

Time for Greg to go to work here

 

 

Was working on some related research when this news broke strangely enough. Weird synchronicity...

 

Tom's answer got it right in terms of how they are estimating things. I'll say this off the cuff though:

 

1) If it's truly 60 warheads, then most military intervention plans are off the table as that's a huge number to try to "contain" in a first strike (unless you're talking a pre-emptive nuclear strike which would be problematic for other reasons). Any first strike short of a nuclear one cannot guarantee getting all those warheads, and unless they're willing to risk Japan and South Korea in the crossfire, that puts the US in a bit of a straight jacket in terms of their options.

 

2) It's going to be impossible for the world to get NK to give up their weapons peacefully thanks, in no small part, to the example the US recently made of Libya. The US (and the world) pressured Libya for years to give up their chemical and nuclear programs. This was sold to Gadaffi as the only way to guarantee his regime's existence. If he didn't disarm, the west would invade. So, in 2003-2004 Libya complied (mostly... though not entirely) and instead of being welcomed into the international community as they were promised, 44 (under HRC's advice) launched a regime change war and turned Libya into what it is today: the hub for human trafficking and slavery in the world. In other words, the US made it clear that if you're a tin-pot dictator of a nation that's hostile to the west, the only thing that prevents the US from launching a regime change war is having these types of weapons programs to begin with. Giving up the programs doesn't deter the west, it encourages them to more forcefully engage in regime change wars. The DPRK was paying attention to Libya, as was Iran. They see what happens after they give up their weapon programs - the DPRK won't negotiate imo.

 

3) That leaves only internal regime change (through sanctions and espionage) as the only real viable option here. But those plans all have their own inherent risks and take years...

 

This is going to get messier before it gets resolved. I'll dig in deeper in a bit.

Edited August 8, 2017 by Deranged Rhino

[ALF]

Thanks for your research Greg , much appreciated.

 

I can't believe the N Korean military has not assassinated that mad man by now .

 

That country has $trillions in mineral resources and can thrive with S Korea and China with sanctions removed.

[Doc Brown]

AP statement out by Trump saying, "If North Korea escalates nuclear threat, 'they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.' Nagasaki and Hiroshima citizens are skeptical.

[GG]

AP statement out by Trump saying, "If North Korea escalates nuclear threat, 'they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.' Nagasaki and Hiroshima citizens are skeptical.

 

Great, a blowhard bad haircut plump-boy cage match.

[ALF]

AP statement out by Trump saying, "If North Korea escalates nuclear threat, 'they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.' Nagasaki and Hiroshima citizens are skeptical.

 

Good grief

[Kelly the Dog]

AP statement out by Trump saying, "If North Korea escalates nuclear threat, 'they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.' Nagasaki and Hiroshima citizens are skeptical.

Trump just keenly entered the "I know you are but what am I" phase of his trenchant defense strategy against NK, which is a wily approach.

[row_33]

Trump just keenly entered the "I know you are but what am I" phase of his trenchant defense strategy against NK, which is a wily approach.

 

better than the hide your head in the sand while covering your butthole, praying that nothing happens like Obama did.

 

thanks bud, great job for 8 years, may you be first in line to suffer any dire consequences...

[Kelly the Dog]

 

better than the hide your head in the sand while covering your butthole, praying that nothing happens like Obama did.

 

thanks bud, great job for 8 years, may you be first in line to suffer any dire consequences...

Actually it's likely to be much worse than the terribly poor policy we have been going with forever. The problem is, if Obama's wrong like his predecessors, we kick the can down the road a bit, which is what happened. Not a solution, just a fact. If Trump's wrong, which he often is, we get some form of nuclear war or international terror. And since no one believes what Trump says outside of a bunch of deplorables like you appear to be, it's just going to provoke Fat Boy into doing something crazier, not be scared of Trump.

[GG]

Actually it's likely to be much worse than the terribly poor policy we have been going with forever. The problem is, if Obama's wrong like his predecessors, we kick the can down the road a bit, which is what happened. Not a solution, just a fact. If Trump's wrong, which he often is, we get some form of nuclear war or international terror. And since no one believes what Trump says outside of a bunch of deplorables like you appear to be, it's just going to provoke Fat Boy into doing something crazier, not be scared of Trump.

 

Unless the message is really aimed at SK and China to take fat-boy out, since they'll be the ones in the front lines of fat-boy's tantrums

[Deranged Rhino]

Unless the message is really aimed at SK and China to take fat-boy out, since they'll be the ones in the front lines of fat-boy's tantrums

Good luck with that if it's truly his plan.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

Unless the message is really aimed at SK and China to take fat-boy out, since they'll be the ones in the front lines of fat-boy's tantrums

I think that is the only solution that has any decent chance of working.

 

I sincerely doubt that if that were the case, it would be SK and China's strategy to have Trump do and say what he did, they would just go in and do it after clandestine consultation with US military/agency folks. This was HIGHLY likely an impulsive **** tweet from the report he just saw.

[Deranged Rhino]

I think that is the only solution that has any decent chance of working.

 

I sincerely doubt that if that were the case, it would be SK and China's strategy to have Trump do and say what he did, they would just go in and do it after clandestine consultation with US military/agency folks. This was HIGHLY likely an impulsive **** tweet from the report he just saw.

That solution can only work if China wants it to. They clearly do not though, and haven't for decades. The last thing China wants, outside of a war, nuclear or otherwise, on the peninsula (the refugee influx alone would cripple China's economy inside of a year) is a unified Korean peninsula that's a proxy of the west.

 

If we're going to put all our chips in on China stopping their support of the DPRK, we're going to lose big.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Seems like diplomacy doesn't work with strongmen huh?

[Doc Brown]

Trump just keenly entered the "I know you are but what am I" phase of his trenchant defense strategy against NK, which is a wily approach.

If any other president in recent history said what Trump said today, bomb shelters would be the top searched item on google. Trump always talks in superlatives though so we know he's just being Trump, but I'm wondering if the rest of the world just pushes his comments aside as just ramblings of our harmless drunk uncle like America does.

[GG]

That solution can only work if China wants it to. They clearly do not though, and haven't for decades. The last thing China wants, outside of a war, nuclear or otherwise, on the peninsula (the refugee influx alone would cripple China's economy inside of a year) is a unified Korean peninsula that's a proxy of the west.

 

If we're going to put all our chips in on China stopping their support of the DPRK, we're going to lose big.

 

Trump is the kind of crazy that would get China to move. Their bigger fear is not a unified peninsula, but the flow of North Korean refugees. They're already surrounded by Western proxies. Trump sounding off with a scorched earth trade policy and a scorched earth response to fatboy will get Beijing's ear.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

 

Trump is the kind of crazy that would get China to move. Their bigger fear is not a unified peninsula, but the flow of North Korean refugees. They're already surrounded by Western proxies. Trump sounding off with a scorched earth trade policy and a scorched earth response to fatboy will get Beijing's ear.

 

I'd imagine so, after the utterly useless overtures from Clinton, Bush 2 and Obama.