Chilly Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) There's always a ton of discussion on this board about passing offense, with people dismissing our passing offense because of the lack of total yards or touchdowns. Statistically, total yards and touchdowns are a pretty bad indicator of success. Chase Stuart did this study in 2012: http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/ ANY/A, NY/A, Passer Rating, and Touchdowns per Attempt are the stats most correlated with winning. Since this is a Bills forum, and Tyrod is obviously going to come up, here's where he ranked the past two seasons: 2016 ANY/A - 18th NY/A - 24th Passer Rating - 18th TD % - 18th 2015 ANY/A - 9th NY/A - 11th Passer Rating - 8th TD % - 13th By these measures, Tyrod was around QB #10 in 2015, and QB #20 in 2016. Edited March 13, 2017 by Chilly
Boatdrinks Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 20 in 2016 seems about right. 10 in 2015 is a bit high, but maybe around 14-16.
Meathead Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) the nfl has continuously modified its rules to favor the qb and to a lesser extent the receivers so now we find out qb stats are the biggest determining factor to winning shocking, huh? i wish theyd change the rules back to allow contact with the wrs down the field and tilt the balance back towards the dbs. that would reduce the reliance on qbs and stop the game from becoming so completely one-dimensional so that there were more ways to win than just landing that super qb Edited March 13, 2017 by Meathead
The_Dude Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Tyrod sucks. That's why he restructured his deal...nobody else wanted to pay him either.
dave mcbride Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) The only passing related stat that truly correlates with winning and losing over the long term is passer rating differential: http://www.si.com/more-sports/2011/06/23/most-importantstatpasserratingdifferential The two teams with the best passer rating differential in 2016? New England (1st) and Atlanta (2nd). Edited March 13, 2017 by dave mcbride
FireChan Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 There's always a ton of discussion on this board about passing offense, with people dismissing our passing offense because of the lack of total yards or touchdowns. Statistically, total yards and touchdowns are a pretty bad indicator of success. Chase Stuart did this study in 2012: http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/ ANY/A, NY/A, Passer Rating, and Touchdowns per Attempt are the stats most correlated with winning. Since this is a Bills forum, and Tyrod is obviously going to come up, here's where he ranked the past two seasons: 2016 ANY/A - 18th NY/A - 24th Passer Rating - 18th TD % - 18th 2015 ANY/A - 9th NY/A - 11th Passer Rating - 8th TD % - 13th By these measures, Tyrod was around QB #10 in 2015, and QB #20 in 2016. So TT was the 12th worst QB and we're picking tenth? Makes sense.
row_33 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Looking like you belong out there as a leader and having half a clue what you are doing is overlooked. Might be worth 80 percent of success.
Chilly Posted March 13, 2017 Author Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) The only passing related stat that truly correlates with winning and losing over the long term is passer rating differential: http://www.si.com/more-sports/2011/06/23/most-importantstatpasserratingdifferential The two teams with the best passer rating differential in 2016? New England (1st) and Atlanta (2nd). Chase in fact mentions PRD in his article and links to the one you just provided. They're all tied together. While PRD on a team-by-team basis is an examination of both your QB's performance & how other QBs perform against your team, the variables above look at just how your QB is performing - one half of PRD. The difference here is the above is an attempt to isolate QB performance while PRD looks at overall team performance. Edited March 13, 2017 by Chilly
jr1 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Bills scored 3 more points the the Redskins but Tyrod sucks
Chilly Posted March 13, 2017 Author Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) Bills scored 3 more points the the Redskins but Tyrod sucks By any objective measure, though, Kirk Cousins had a significantly better season than Tyrod. These stats are all adjusted for # of passing attempts: 2016 Cousins ANY/A - 4th NY/A - 3rd Passer Rating - 7th TD % - 16th Edited March 13, 2017 by Chilly
Thurman#1 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) Bills scored 3 more points the the Redskins but Tyrod sucks Bills passing TDs: 17 Bills defensive TDs: 3 Bills running TDs: 29 And again, we're the only team in the league that scored more TDs running than passing. Scoring isn't a QB stat. It's an offensive stat with a major component from the defense and STs in terms of field position. For our offense, they got the ball in better field position than average this year. And yet our defense saw opponents start drives in much better field position than average. Which shows our defense and STs did better in terms of field position than most would think and our offense worse. And as for the offense, the pass game was well below average and the run game was terrific. So, while "sucks" is a bit strong, yeah, Cousins is a lot better than Tyrod, and Tyrod is a bit below average. Edited March 13, 2017 by Thurman#1
Chilly Posted March 13, 2017 Author Posted March 13, 2017 One of the other fun things to do is to play with these stats on the passing charts at pro football reference: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm Here are some non-Bills things that stick out to me: Jameis Winston 2016 ANY/A - 21st NY/A - 17th Passer Rating - 21st TD % - 12th Average: 18th 2015 ANY/A - 16th NY/A - 9th Passer Rating - 28th TD % - 24th Average: 19th Ouch. It's one of the reasons why I'm not sold on Jameis yet. Dak Prescott 2016 ANY/A - 3rd NY/A - 4th Passer Rating - 3rd TD % - 9th WOW that was a great year! Marcus Mariota 2016 ANY/A - 8th NY/A - 7th Passer Rating - 10th TD % - 4th Marcus is gonna be a star, and his stats are already there. Better than Jameis IMO. Ryan Tannehill 2016 ANY/A - 17th NY/A - 12th Passer Rating - 12th TD % - 11th This one surprised me. I'd probably put him around QB20 but he fell right near QB13 last season.
John from Riverside Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 what was the common denominator between 2015 and 2016 How many games did Sammy Watkins miss in the 2 years? That is all you need to know
ganesh Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 20 in 2016 seems about right. 10 in 2015 is a bit high, but maybe around 14-16. He had healthy WR's in 2015 and none of anybody useful for 2016.
dave mcbride Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Chase in fact mentions PRD in his article and links to the one you just provided. They're all tied together. While PRD on a team-by-team basis is an examination of both your QB's performance & how other QBs perform against your team, the variables above look at just how your QB is performing - one half of PRD. The difference here is the above is an attempt to isolate QB performance while PRD looks at overall team performance. Don't get me wrong -- I liked the piece! I just think that the differential evidence is overwhelming.
HappyDays Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 The only passing related stat that truly correlates with winning and losing over the long term is passer rating differential: http://www.si.com/more-sports/2011/06/23/most-importantstatpasserratingdifferential The two teams with the best passer rating differential in 2016? New England (1st) and Atlanta (2nd). Hahaha this is great because so many people have told me passer rating doesn't really matter, or it's easy to manipulate. Turns out it's easily the most important stat to look at when evaluating a team's success.
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Tyrod sucks. That's why he restructured his deal...nobody else wanted to pay him either. this is some serious substance added to the thread.
thebandit27 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 I would like to applaud the OP for bringing some new context to the Tyrod discussion. Nice work.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 what was the common denominator between 2015 and 2016 How many games did Sammy Watkins miss in the 2 years? That is all you need to know The QB and or play calling and the "unwillingness" to use the field in passing situations is the common denominator. FWIW in 2016 TT had 12 less passing yards w/o Sammy and his RAT dropped 10 pts. Sammy missed 11 games in 2 seasons, Clay missed 1 more games due to injury in 2015 than 2016. When Sammy was playing he'd be killing it in the first half then they forget he existed in the 2nd half and they'd lose the game. This happened on the 2015 KC game and 2016 OAK game. What about Justin Hunter? Big guy who did well in the RZ who IMO he was underutilized and had as many TD's as Clay with 4. The key knock on TT is his inability to pass with anticipation most of the time. It appears as if he waits for the receiver to stop and turn before delivering the ball.
racketmaster Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Good post. All things considered (minimal turnovers and rushing ability), I think Tyrod fits in around that 10-15 range of quarterbacks.
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