Bills lose 3rd & 4th rd. draft picks in '18 due to stupidity

[cd1]

Would not the most rational approach be to let FA play out and then see where the team stands with respect to compensation picks? The only reason I can see for the OP is to promote hysteria.

To promote hysteria OR to dazzel us lowly board dwellers with his immence NFL DRAFT SKILLS.

 

It is truely amazing how many MELTDOWNS have been publically displayed on this board and it is just hours into the Free Agency.

[Tenhigh]

This place is getting a little crazy. Why are we already complaining about something that very likely may not come to pass, and we wont know either way for quite some time? BBFS?

[harmonkillebrew]

It's a fair point and highlights Whaley's over-reliance on free agents, potentially to the detriment of a more sustainable draft-based strategy. I"m not sure of the formula, and I think you get a ceiling of 2 comp picks, so we might balance out in the end given all the guys we lost. But yeah, if re-signing Mills and Lo cost us picks than that was stupid, shortsightedness

[cd1]

This Bills team (under new management) is two years old.

 

QUESTION: How many players on an active NFL roster?

 

ANS: Teams are only allowed to have 53 players on their active roster. Of these 53, only 46 players can dress out for the actual game.

 

QUESTION: How many draft picks have "the NEW BILLS TEAM" had to fill roster spots?

 

ANS: 13 - 2015 (6 picks) & 2016 (7 picks)

 

MATH: 53 - 13 = ? (you figure it out)

 

The previous owner left this team on life support for MOST of the infamous SEVENTEEN YEARS.

 

If you start from almost scratch you can not build a 53 man roster with a hand full of draft picks per year.

 

The only alternative is to use the FA to fill in holes.

 

So theres that...

[Dr. Fong]

You know that they have a roster to fill, right?

 

This is such a pointless post.

[Chuck Wagon]

First off, anyone who dismisses losing a 3rd / 4th round pick because of signing a fullback and a kicker as being a draft nerd or a panic instigator is a moron. It's an extremely legitimate point, one that causes franchises like Baltimore and New England to take a VERY measured approach to FA. Where has trying to find 5 starters in FA every year gotten us as a franchise? You don't think we should try to tag a page from perennial winners?

 

Second, none of us understand how the comp pick formula truly works, teams in the league aren't quite exactly sure, but I will say, if the players we've signed offset losing a pick from Gilmore, the formula is broken and needs to be re-evaluated. I understand the panic and recognize we need to build our base through the draft as much as anyone does, but lets see how it plays out. The one signing that leaves me scratching my head at this point is Ducasse. He's a near minimum guy who is 30 and was on the street in the middle of last year. I really hope he doesn't figure into the formula.

 

To the "they have a roster to fill" crowd, there are plenty of avenues to accomplish building the roster and unrestricted FA is just one. If anyone believes we are going to sign the 4-5 starters we currently project to need with this remaining crop of talent, I'm sorry to say your expectations will not be fulfilled. I think we'll see plenty of UDFAs and post June 1st signings have a chance to make this team in camp. I also think we'll see our final roster going into the season with plenty of guys cut from other teams. Rome wasn't built in a day and playoff teams aren't built in FA.

[klos63]

 

 

 

Honestly, it's the opposite of stupid. Comp picks, especially when acquired year after year after year directly relate to better rosters and being in better cap shape.

 

This article says it well, "Comp picks are rewards for smart teams." Exactly.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/02/24/compensatory-picks-are-a-reward-for-smart-teams/

 

"The list of teams that have received the most compensatory picks since 1994 is pretty similar to the list of the best teams in football since 1994: The Ravens have received the most compensatory picks, and they’ve won two Super Bowls. The Packers have received the second-most, and they’ve also won two Super Bowls. The Patriots are fourth, and they’ve won five Super Bowls. The 10 teams that have had the most compensatory picks have won most of the Super Bowls since 1994, with a total of 14 titles for those 10 teams.

"At the other end of the spectrum, the teams that don’t receive a lot of compensatory picks tend to be bad teams: There are 14 teams that have received fewer than 20 compensatory picks since the system started in 1994, and those 14 teams have won a combined two Super Bowls."

The Patriots love comp picks so much that they consistently trade for guys with expiring contracts who will draw comp picks when their contracts end.

The details matter, and this isn't a small detail. Comp picks are extra draft picks. So they make it easier and more palatable for your team to trade away a third or fourth rounder if they want something because they have their regular pick and a comp pick in the same round.

And comp picks are even more valuable starting this year, because they're more versatile ... as of this year you can trade them.

It's not a mistake that the best teams are the ones who have had the most comp picks over the years. It's a smart strategy to care, and it's the smart teams who do it.

And yes we should have made the effort, this year and every year.

These are also teams that have deep rosters already and don't have a need to acquire numerous FA's. There are 2 ways to look at this.

Our Bills could have easily signed lots of FA's that didn't count towards the formula for getting comp picks

Brandon Marshall was one such player

There are plenty other examples including Jarius Byrd

I can't list all the rest because I do not know of a source on the net listing just released players

Another way was to pony up a bit and sign our own FA's like Lorax

That also didn't count against

Again the OP makes an excellent high football acumen post here

Would you rather have Ducasse at your backup G the next two years or a 3rd round pick in 2018 which could net the next John Miller

Would you rather Poyer as your backup S the next two years or a 3rd round pick in 2018 that could net your the next Adolphus Washington

The answer(s) are rather obvious

Again without the nice 2 comp picks DW got us in 2016 Cardale Jones and Kevin Seymour would not be on our roster

 

jc

So does the fact the DW acquired 2 comp picks last year prove he's not stupid and maybe just adapts to the current situation differently than last years situation? Would you be ok with the team having signed no FA's so far ?

It's a fair point and highlights Whaley's over-reliance on free agents, potentially to the detriment of a more sustainable draft-based strategy. I"m not sure of the formula, and I think you get a ceiling of 2 comp picks, so we might balance out in the end given all the guys we lost. But yeah, if re-signing Mills and Lo cost us picks than that was stupid, shortsightedness

I believe it's 4.

[cd1]

First off, anyone who dismisses losing a 3rd / 4th round pick because of signing a fullback and a kicker as being a draft nerd or a panic instigator is a moron., It's an extremely legitimate point, one that causes franchises like Baltimore and New England to take a VERY measured approach to FA. Where has trying to find 5 starters in FA every year gotten us as a franchise? You don't think we should try to tag a page from perennial winners?

 

Second, none of us understand how the comp pick formula truly works, teams in the league aren't quite exactly sure, but I will say, if the players we've signed offset losing a pick from Gilmore, the formula is broken and needs to be re-evaluated. I understand the panic and recognize we need to build our base through the draft as much as anyone does, but lets see how it plays out. The one signing that leaves me scratching my head at this point is Ducasse. He's a near minimum guy who is 30 and was on the street in the middle of last year. I really hope he doesn't figure into the formula.

 

To the "they have a roster to fill" crowd, there are plenty of avenues to accomplish building the roster and unrestricted FA is just one. If anyone believes we are going to sign the 4-5 starters we currently project to need with this remaining crop of talent, I'm sorry to say your expectations will not be fulfilled. I think we'll see plenty of UDFAs and post June 1st signings have a chance to make this team in camp. I also think we'll see our final roster going into the season with plenty of guys cut from other teams. Rome wasn't built in a day and playoff teams aren't built in FA.

WAIT - Did you just say FIRST off those who disagree with the OP are MORONS. and SECOND no body really knows how it works (including OP I would imagine)?

 

Well, that is one way to cover your ass. But, you did say it with such supperiority.

 

I guess we all have been schooled.

[klos63]

It's a fair point and highlights Whaley's over-reliance on free agents, potentially to the detriment of a more sustainable draft-based strategy. I"m not sure of the formula, and I think you get a ceiling of 2 comp picks, so we might balance out in the end given all the guys we lost. But yeah, if re-signing Mills and Lo cost us picks than that was stupid, shortsightedness

Signing your own FA's doesn't cost you picks.

[flomoe]

It is stupid to think we could or should wait to fill out our roster players post FA, sifting through post June 1 cuts, other teams' released players, other teams' non-tendered RFA's, or UDFA's. You want to talk about a sh*t roster? Uhhhh, yeah, that would be us. 20+ FA's. Again, 20+ FA's. Only 6 draft picks. We have to sign players. This year is not a feasible one to try to make this argument, but you top notch message board GM's think you have this sh*t COMPLETELY figured out. You guys are clueless. Completely f***ing clueless. Someone mentioned Brandon Marshall. Whotf says Marshall would even want to come to Buffalo? Who says Whaley didn't make a call at least? None of you know. Another person mentioned re-signing some of our own. We did a couple, but do you honestly expect us to "get the band back together" when they made sh*tty music? We are the Bills, a team who hasn't been in the playoffs in 17 years. And no it's not because of f***ing comp picks.

ALL OF THIS!!!

 

Maybe this thing should just get closed, it's ridiculous but fun reading the morons that think you build teams through 3rd and 4th round comp picks.

Fuc|<ing Brilliant!!

[klos63]

Our Bills could have easily signed lots of FA's that didn't count towards the formula for getting comp picks

Brandon Marshall was one such player

There are plenty other examples including Jarius Byrd

I can't list all the rest because I do not know of a source on the net listing just released players

Another way was to pony up a bit and sign our own FA's like Lorax

That also didn't count against

Again the OP makes an excellent high football acumen post here

Would you rather have Ducasse at your backup G the next two years or a 3rd round pick in 2018 which could net the next John Miller

Would you rather Poyer as your backup S the next two years or a 3rd round pick in 2018 that could net your the next Adolphus Washington

The answer(s) are rather obvious

Again without the nice 2 comp picks DW got us in 2016 Cardale Jones and Kevin Seymour would not be on our roster

 

jc

You're making a huge assumption that Marshall would want to sign with Buffalo.

Byrd is still available, so they might sign him.

 

 

 

Yeah, it is.

 

We're not going to be competing for the Super Bowl this year. And we're in cap trouble still, though a bit less so after Tyrod's re-negotiation.

 

So yeah, we need to start emulating the successful teams that use the system effectively. Doing this means we get cheaper players so we can bring in more and have them cost less. Which is what a team with cap pressure should be doing anyway.

 

Our moves should all be aimed more at the future than at next year. Successful teams tend to have long-range orientations, and so should we. Successful teams tend to get high-priced FAs only very occasionally, and so should we, and successful teams tend to be careful about the cap, not just shifting contracts and problems downstream, and so should we.

 

Being careful of comp picks helps accomplish all these goal, it has you getting more picks which means higher chances of draft success, it means you tend to spend less on FAs which also increases your chances of success. And it shouldn't be done for only one year, but every single year. Occasionally it will maybe make sense not to work that way, but most years you should be gathering and hoarding picks, including comp picks. That's why the teams with the most comp picks over the years correspond almost one-to-one with the most successful teams in the league.

Why not? and no we are not.

[xsoldier54]

I'll tell you what's stupid. It's this thread. You don't plan your offseason worrying about how many comp picks you'll have the following saeason. That would be assinine. But hey don't let that get in the way of your vitriol.

[BillsFan130]

I really dont understand this comp pick business, but if what you are saying is true, then that just shows how incompetent the bills front office is once again

[Arkady Renko]

The problem the Bills have with this is that they are too quick to cut players and then sign similarly-skilled FAs.

[Chuck Wagon]

WAIT - Did you just say FIRST off those who disagree with the OP are MORONS. and SECOND no body really knows how it works (including OP I would imagine)?

 

Well, that is one way to cover your ass. But, you did say it with such supperiority.

 

I guess we all have been schooled.

 

 

So you don't think there's a cause for concern if we used 3rd and 4th round picks on a fullback, kicker and backup guard? This place would have a meltdown if Whaley took a kicker or a fullback in the 3rd round.

 

There's cause for hesitation because none of us truly know the formula and that's from all sides. But I've seen plenty of posters dismiss the loss of Gilmore partially because we'll get a third round pick out of it, which we don't know to be the case. I'm merely pointing out that some of the best run teams in the league (the Ravens, Pats, Packers) absolutely worry about what they'll get back from the comp pick formula. Well run teams don't try to find 5 starters in free agency every single year, they build a cheap sustainable talent base through the draft. Our lack of draft picks through the Whaley years has been well documented, it's partially due to trading up to get players and partially due to attempting to patch cracks on the roster through free agency every year.

Edited March 12, 2017 by Chuck Wagon

[BillsFan130]

I'll tell you what's stupid. It's this thread. You don't plan your offseason worrying about how many comp picks you'll have the following saeason. That would be assinine. But hey don't let that get in the way of your vitriol.

It's a fair point though.. If the bills were a championship contender I would agree with you, but they aren't even close. The Bills need to think of things like this when you are trying to build a championship team years down the road

[GunnerBill]

Here is how I see it:

 

1. I'm not usually in the camp that spends a lot of time worrying about compensatory picks. I think there is a bit of a culture on this board to value picks more than players. Draft picks are a means to an end - that end is good players who can contribute on Sundays in autumn. The Browns have been collecting picks for years (though not as methodically as they are right now admittedly) and they have wasted them. It is about picking good football players pure and simple. Picks are a means to an end and for those who say "the draft is a lottery" well no it isn't. It is about talent evaluation do it well and 7 picks are sufficient.

 

2. I also understand the argument that the Bills have a lot of their own FAs and so needed to do a lot of surgery to the roster this season, the first with a new coaching staff. That was to be expected anyway. So the argument that the Bills are not in a position to sit and wait for post June cuts and rather they need to go and target good players now to strengthen the roster I could get behind.

 

Here comes the but....

 

3. However....... their free agent signings so far are two safeties (no issue there that was an obvious area of need even before they cut Graham and Williams), two full backs and a swing guard. I mean seriously? If they had signed two safeties, a decent vet corner and a decent vet wideout I would be absolutely defending the Bills and saying it is too easy for people to value picks. But they haven't. They have got themselves into the position where now in order to benefit from decent level compensatory picks next year they are relying on teams to sign Justin Hunter or Chris Gragg or Douzable...... (Zach Brown and Corbin Bryant will get signed they are players who definitely belong on a 53 the other 3 are all borderline) for the sake of having good full back depth and a swing guard.

 

I have generally been a defender of Whaley but this particular opening to free agency has left me scratching my head in so many ways. From letting Gilmore walk to valuing LoRax at $4.5m a year to the great full back frenzy..... it is clouded, confused thinking.

[dave mcbride]

The OP is right aboutthe probable outcome, but it's an "it is what it is" type of situation. The Bills have to sign FAs to fill out their roster, and while they're more expensive than rookies, it's not really a problem at all unless you're giving a bunch of them huge contracts -- which you don't need to do. If you look at last year, they signed brown and lorax for peanuts, and they were way better than any 4th or 5th round pick likely would have been.

 

This debate at the end of the day is really about the salary cap and control over years, not the draft per se. But if the Bills have a cheap qb (relatively speaking) and no real payday monsters besides Dareus, Sammy, and McCoy next season, they should be fine. Sammy will be entering year five and will get nicely paid.

 

More broadly, you can build mostly through FA, mostly through the draft, or through a relatively even mix of both. It can work any way and suggesting that it's mostly through the draft ignores the fact that a lot of teams had success building through FA (Denver recently, Arizona).

[klos63]

Here is how I see it:

 

1. I'm not usually in the camp that spends a lot of time worrying about compensatory picks. I think there is a bit of a culture on this board to value picks more than players. Draft picks are a means to an end - that end is good players who can contribute on Sundays in autumn. The Browns have been collecting picks for years (though not as methodically as they are right now admittedly) and they have wasted them. It is about picking good football players pure and simple. Picks are a means to an end and for those who say "the draft is a lottery" well no it isn't. It is about talent evaluation do it well and 7 picks are sufficient.

 

2. I also understand the argument that the Bills have a lot of their own FAs and so needed to do a lot of surgery to the roster this season, the first with a new coaching staff. That was to be expected anyway. So the argument that the Bills are not in a position to sit and wait for post June cuts and rather they need to go and target good players now to strengthen the roster I could get behind.

 

Here comes the but....

 

3. However....... their free agent signings so far are two safeties (no issue there that was an obvious area of need even before they cut Graham and Williams), two full backs and a swing guard. I mean seriously? If they had signed two safeties, a decent vet corner and a decent vet wideout I would be absolutely defending the Bills and saying it is too easy for people to value picks. But they haven't. They have got themselves into the position where now in order to benefit from decent level compensatory picks next year they are relying on teams to sign Justin Hunter or Chris Gragg or Douzable...... (Zach Brown and Corbin Bryant will get signed they are players who definitely belong on a 53 the other 3 are all borderline) for the sake of having good full back depth and a swing guard.

 

I have generally been a defender of Whaley but this particular opening to free agency has left me scratching my head in so many ways. From letting Gilmore walk to valuing LoRax at $4.5m a year to the great full back frenzy..... it is clouded, confused thinking.

Tolbert doesn't count against comp picks, Panthers cut him last month. The team believes it upgraded the fullback position by signing a Pro Bowl player and we now have a short yardage back, with we didn't have before. There is logic to the FB signings.

[GunnerBill]

Tolbert doesn't count against comp picks, Panthers cut him last month. The team believes it upgraded the fullback position by signing a Pro Bowl player and we now have a short yardage back, with we didn't have before. There is logic to the FB signings.

Ah okay. But Tolbert out Hauschka in my point remains.

 

And teams don't win by "upgrading the full back position". Felton is a good blocker and when we cut him last year he spent a week sitting out there before we brought him back for vet minimum. Full backs should be cheap.

 

Having said that DiMarco does know the offense. At least that is something

Edited March 12, 2017 by GunnerBill