Bills lose 3rd & 4th rd. draft picks in '18 due to stupidity

[klos63]

If the Bills don't get picks for Gilmore and Woods then yes, they did it wrong. Obviously it is too early to tell. 3rd and 4th round picks are valuable and also tradable now, so pretending it doesn't matter is naive. I don't know the numbers but I don't recall the Bills getting very many of them in the last 5 years. I sense that this subject has been kicked around here before.

As most subjects have.

[KevinMassare]

This can change the second Zach Brown, EJ, Hunter, Douzable, Bryant, Felton, Blanton, White, or Tate sign elsewhere.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Estro, Adam, FireChan and others, I want to say thank you for speaking up and explaining this stuff to us, even in the face of all the sarcasm and insults that add nothing to the discussion. Just got done reporting a post telling one of you to 'shut the !@#$ up.' I hope y'all realize its the ones running on emotion who are the most vocal. Some real well-reasoned posts here, I've learned from this thread, please don't get discouraged.

[wilcoam]

The mis-information on this thread by the average fan is flabbergasting

Look if you will just admit you don't understand how comp picks are awarded or why they are so important that's one thing

However to shrug your shoulders and or claim incorrect information is another

Nope, if the Zack Brown signs with another team we still get NOTHING

We will have signed 5 FA's and had 5 FA's our our own signed

There will be no compensation

 

The last time we awarded comp picks was in 2016 based on the FA's we lost in 2015

If you re-call we lost CJ Spiller, D Searcy, and L Smith, but gained TT

The result was 2 comp picks awarded to us, a 4th and 6th rounder

We picked Cardale Jones and Kevin Seymour

2 solid NFL pickups and a great job by DW by not signing other FA's to nullify the 2 extra picks

 

This year we stand to get much higher picks, likely a 3rd rounder for Gilmore, and a 4th for Woods, who knows for Zack

Unless we keep signing FA's or keep releasing players who have to replaced by FA's

Then we get nothing

And the OP is smart enough to figure that out

That signing bum fringe parts FA's like Poyer and Duccase might nullify a 3rd and 4th round 2018 free draft pick

Fingers crossed somebody signs EJM, Zack, Douzable, and more of our fringe players and we stop signing FA's

 

jc

[NewEra]

The threads have been amazing the past couple weeks.

[H2o]

We HAVE to sign FA's unless you want a team of UDFA's. We had more FA's than any other team and it's impossible to pick through other teams' released players to fill out a roster. You have to take into account whether these players we are sifting through actually want to come here as well. We had 20+ FA's this offseason. A lot of holes to fill and with the fact we have only 6 draft picks makes it that much harder. All of the talk about comp picks is moot with so many holes on our roster. It's just something else for people to b***h about. We're not losing picks because of Poyer and Ducasse because there will be even more signed from the 2nd tier..... Because we have to fill out our roster. It's simple math.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

We HAVE to sign FA's unless you want a team of UDFA's. We had more FA's than any other team and it's impossible to pick through other teams' released players to fill out a roster. You have to take into account whether these players we are sifting through actually want to come here as well. We had 20+ FA's this offseason. A lot of holes to fill and with the fact we have only 6 draft picks makes it that much harder. All of the talk about comp picks is moot with so many holes on our roster. It's just something else for people to b***h about. We're not losing picks because of Poyer and Ducasse because there will be even more signed from the 2nd tier..... Because we have to fill out our roster. It's simple math.

players signed after June 1st can fill out the roster with no effect on comp picks. They're not just filling out the roster they're targeting specific players they want. Hopefully it proves to be worth it.

[klos63]

players signed after June 1st can fill out the roster with no effect on comp picks. They're not just filling out the roster they're targeting specific players they want. Hopefully it proves to be worth it.

and how many of these FA's will be any good. Do you want to wait that long to address the teams needs and just hope the other teams passed on quality players?

[NewEra]

and how many of these FA's will be any good. Do you want to wait that long to address the teams needs and just hope the other teams passed on quality players?

No. We'd rather overpay for plauers and get stuck in bad contracts

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

and how many of these FA's will be any good. Do you want to wait that long to address the teams needs and just hope the other teams passed on quality players?

Maybe you're right dude I have no idea whether Ducasse or Poyer are better than what we could get June 1st. Do you? The Bills are saying that acquiring these specific players is worth risking both a 3rd and 4th round pick. Since these players are Bills now I only hope they're right in that assessment.

 

Its still very early in FA, we'll see what happens, I don't know nearly enough to make a rigid judgment about this one way or the other. Hopefully the FO is appropriately cognizant of this.

[H2o]

players signed after June 1st can fill out the roster with no effect on comp picks. They're not just filling out the roster they're targeting specific players they want. Hopefully it proves to be worth it.

Again, you are looking for scheme fit players who have to actually choose to come to Buffalo. To think that you can sift through June 1 cuts for this is naive at best and a foolish strategy. 20+ FA's all from June 1 cuts to make sure we keep those comp picks. Yeah, very realistic.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Again, you are looking for scheme fit players who have to actually choose to come to Buffalo. To think that you can sift through June 1 cuts for this is naive at best and a foolish strategy. 20+ FA's all from June 1 cuts to make sure we keep those comp picks. Yeah, very realistic.

now its scheme fits, a second ago it was 'just simple math.'

 

Again, hopefully Ducasse and Poyer are worth such a risk. I don't pretend to know.

[H2o]

now its scheme fits, a second ago it was 'just simple math.'

 

Again, hopefully Ducasse and Poyer are worth such a risk. I don't pretend to know.

Omg bruh, it's still simple math. A lot of holes to fill = having to sign players. Yes they want scheme fit players. Yes those players have to choose to sign with us and not someone else. Yes it is absolutely retarded to think you can do that with 6 draft picks and skimming through post June 1 cuts. How hard is that to understand?

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Omg bruh, it's still simple math. A lot of holes to fill = having to sign players. Yes they want scheme fit players. Yes those players have to choose to sign with us and not someone else. Yes it is absolutely retarded to think you can do that with 6 draft picks and skimming through post June 1 cuts. How hard is that to understand?

So for some reason you're certain that Ducasse and Poyer are sooo much better than what we could get post-June 1st that you would trade both a 3rd and 4th round pick for them.

[Thurman#1]

Really, the comp pick thing again? This is so stupid.

 

 

 

Honestly, it's the opposite of stupid. Comp picks, especially when acquired year after year after year directly relate to better rosters and being in better cap shape.

 

This article says it well, "Comp picks are rewards for smart teams." Exactly.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/02/24/compensatory-picks-are-a-reward-for-smart-teams/

 

"The list of teams that have received the most compensatory picks since 1994 is pretty similar to the list of the best teams in football since 1994: The Ravens have received the most compensatory picks, and they’ve won two Super Bowls. The Packers have received the second-most, and they’ve also won two Super Bowls. The Patriots are fourth, and they’ve won five Super Bowls. The 10 teams that have had the most compensatory picks have won most of the Super Bowls since 1994, with a total of 14 titles for those 10 teams.

"At the other end of the spectrum, the teams that don’t receive a lot of compensatory picks tend to be bad teams: There are 14 teams that have received fewer than 20 compensatory picks since the system started in 1994, and those 14 teams have won a combined two Super Bowls."

The Patriots love comp picks so much that they consistently trade for guys with expiring contracts who will draw comp picks when their contracts end.

The details matter, and this isn't a small detail. Comp picks are extra draft picks. So they make it easier and more palatable for your team to trade away a third or fourth rounder if they want something because they have their regular pick and a comp pick in the same round.

And comp picks are even more valuable starting this year, because they're more versatile ... as of this year you can trade them.

It's not a mistake that the best teams are the ones who have had the most comp picks over the years. It's a smart strategy to care, and it's the smart teams who do it.

And yes we should have made the effort, this year and every year.

[Estro]

The title of this thread is misleading plain and simple.

You wanna make a personal side bet with me that the Bills don't get a 3rd and 4th round compensatory pick in '18 because they signed too many UFA's? I've seen this type of ineptitude for far too long.

 

And if and when we don't make the playoffs in '17 I'd like you to reassess your blind love of the Bills, prior to the '18 NFL draft, & ask yourself if signing guys like Vlad Ducasse, Jordan Poyer, a kicker & a FB was worth forgoing a 3rd & 4th round pick.

Edited March 12, 2017 by Estro

[mannc]

As to the topic at hand, why don't we wait and see if/when Zach, Gragg, Bryant, Hunter, Tate, etc sign anywhere before we go blasting the organization for not betting a FA loss.

Don't forget EJ!

[Estro]

and how many of these FA's will be any good. Do you want to wait that long to address the teams needs and just hope the other teams passed on quality players?

To settle the debate for the posters who are either too ignorant or stubborn to understand the value of what we are giving up by signing some of these low end starters and backup UFA's let me ask you this?

 

How many teams do you think would offer us a 2018 3rd or 4th round pick in a trade for any of the following players: Jordan Poyer, Vlad DuCasse, Patrick DiMarco, or Stephen Hauschka? Because if we lose out on either one of those comp. picks that's what Doug Whaley will have done, which would be a total failure to properly assess value.

 

Imagine if Doug Whaley traded Vlad DuCasse tomorrow to the Vikings for a 2018 4th round pick. This entire board including myself would applaud him for pulling off a heist. You mean we get a free 4th next year & can still sign some bum who's probably better than Vlad Ducasse after June 1? Amazing. Yet if I point out the exact opposite, which as of today could very well happen, and we essentially give up a 4th round pick for signing Vlad DuCasse I'm criticized for criticizing the Bills. Makes no sense.

 

Would you rather have Corey Graham and a 2018 3rd round pick or Jordan Poyer?

 

Would you rather have a backup G that was cut or signed after June 1 & a 3rd round pick or Vlad Ducasse?

 

Would you rather have Jerome Felton & a 2018 3rd round pick or Patrick Dimarco?

 

These will all be legitimate ?'s if the Bills FO blows their opportunity to secure both the 3rd and 4th round compensatory picks.

Edited March 12, 2017 by Estro

[Thurman#1]

We HAVE to sign FA's unless you want a team of UDFA's. We had more FA's than any other team and it's impossible to pick through other teams' released players to fill out a roster. You have to take into account whether these players we are sifting through actually want to come here as well. We had 20+ FA's this offseason. A lot of holes to fill and with the fact we have only 6 draft picks makes it that much harder. All of the talk about comp picks is moot with so many holes on our roster. It's just something else for people to b***h about. We're not losing picks because of Poyer and Ducasse because there will be even more signed from the 2nd tier..... Because we have to fill out our roster. It's simple math.

 

 

 

We have to sign FAs. But there are ways to sign FAs without losing comp picks. And year after year we ignore those rules while the Pats and Ravens and others know them bone-deep and use them consistently.

 

1) You can sign FAs that were cut without losing comp picks.

 

2) You can sign untendered RFAs anytime without losing comp picks. It's only UFAs who count toward comp picks.

 

3) After June 1st you can sign anyone not given a "June 1st tender" by their original team without losing comp picks.

 

4) You can sign ANYONE after the UFA signing period (which ended July 27th last year) without losing a comp pick.

 

5) You can sign guys to small contracts pretty much anytime. There's a minimum salary to qualify and while nobody knows exactly what it is, they know fairly closely. Below that level you don't lose picks. And salaries go down as time passes and players get more desperate.

 

 

So it's not like you can't fill your team without losing comp picks. You can. But you have to be smart. You often see Belichick waiting till after those deadlines to sign guys exactly for this reason.

To settle the debate for the posters who are either too ignorant or stubborn to understand the value of what we are giving up by signing some of these low end starters and backup UFA's let me ask you this?

 

How many teams do you think would offer us a 2018 3rd or 4th round pick for any of the following players: Jordan Poyer, Vlad DuCasse, Patrick DiMarco, or Stephen Hauschka? Because if we lose out on either one of those comp. picks that's what Doug Whaley will have done, whic would be a total failure to properly assess value.

 

Would you rather have Corey Graham and a 2018 3rd round pick or Jordan Poyer?

 

Would you rather have a backup G that was cut or signed after June 1 & a 3rd round pick or Vlad Ducasse?

 

Would you rather have Jerome Felton & a 2018 3rd round pick or Patrick Dimarco?

 

These will all be legitimate ?'s if the Bills FO blows their opportunity to secure high compensatory picks.

 

 

 

Nice.

 

And yes they will be very legitimate questions.

[Estro]

 

 

 

Honestly, it's the opposite of stupid. Comp picks, especially when acquired year after year after year directly relate to better rosters and being in better cap shape.

 

This article says it well, "Comp picks are rewards for smart teams." Exactly.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/02/24/compensatory-picks-are-a-reward-for-smart-teams/

 

"The list of teams that have received the most compensatory picks since 1994 is pretty similar to the list of the best teams in football since 1994: The Ravens have received the most compensatory picks, and they’ve won two Super Bowls. The Packers have received the second-most, and they’ve also won two Super Bowls. The Patriots are fourth, and they’ve won five Super Bowls. The 10 teams that have had the most compensatory picks have won most of the Super Bowls since 1994, with a total of 14 titles for those 10 teams.

"At the other end of the spectrum, the teams that don’t receive a lot of compensatory picks tend to be bad teams: There are 14 teams that have received fewer than 20 compensatory picks since the system started in 1994, and those 14 teams have won a combined two Super Bowls."

The Patriots love comp picks so much that they consistently trade for guys with expiring contracts who will draw comp picks when their contracts end.

The details matter, and this isn't a small detail. Comp picks are extra draft picks. So they make it easier and more palatable for your team to trade away a third or fourth rounder if they want something because they have their regular pick and a comp pick in the same round.

And comp picks are even more valuable starting this year, because they're more versatile ... as of this year you can trade them.

It's not a mistake that the best teams are the ones who have had the most comp picks over the years. It's a smart strategy to care, and it's the smart teams who do it.

And yes we should have made the effort, this year and every year.

Great points. It appears most on this forum think comp. picks are just some lucky after thought, but your point about the Patriots actually creating additional comp. picks through trading for expiring contracts is a great one.

 

Just look at what they did with Martellus Bennett. Traded a 4th rounder for Bennett and a 6th rounder. Get a solid year of production out of him, let another team sign him for good $$$ and then get a 4th round compensatory draft pick the following year for losing him. Brilliant! It literally cost them nothing.

 

And they have just done the very same thing with Dwayne Allen. And guess what? They will get good production out of him in '17 & then let some other team overpay for likely his best statistical year as a result of playing with Brady, and then get a 4th round comp pick for losing him.