MPT Posted March 12, 2017 Posted March 12, 2017 (edited) Other "quality" teams in the top 10: Detroit San Fran LA Rams Tennessee Dallas Philly All of those teams except the Lions have been to at least one Super Bowl since compensatory picks started. Most of them have been to more than one. Obviously compensatory picks are not a prerequisite to being a respectable franchise, but it's an undeniable advantage that the Bills could have easily utilized this year. Where is your source for the list of compensatory picks you're referencing? Still so much mis-information Sorry Cletus you are factually incorrect Yes, 1994 the Ravens have the most picks, until recently the Browns have had the least As part of their building program they had 7 alone in the last two years It's a legit way the NFL designed to help teams that lose high profile FA's to get compensation It's a real head shaker why folks here don't want compensation But of course if you have a chance to sign a real starter, an impact player, nobody is suggesting not signing any FA's Just not signing fringe depth players in lieu of a 3rd and 4th round 2018 pick Our waiting until Jun 1st or signing other released players, not pure UFA's jc It is indeed puzzling that so many people are pumped about signing backups in exchange for losing draft picks when we don't have many picks to start with. Edited March 12, 2017 by MPT
Wayne Cubed Posted March 12, 2017 Posted March 12, 2017 (edited) All of those teams except the Lions have been to at least one Super Bowl since compensatory picks started. Most of them have been to more than one. Obviously compensatory picks are not a prerequisite to being a respectable franchise, but it's an undeniable advantage that the Bills could have easily utilized this year. Where is your source for the list of compensatory picks you're referencing? Ok, well multiple teams in the bottom 10 in terms of compensatory picks have made the SB, mutiple times. So what does that say? You just said "quality teams" take advantage of the compensatory draft pick system. Now you're saying it's not a prerequisite for respectable franchises? So which is it? Edited March 12, 2017 by Wayne Cubed
MPT Posted March 12, 2017 Posted March 12, 2017 You just said "quality teams" take advantage of the compensatory draft pick system. Now you're saying it's not a prerequisite for respectable franchises? So which is it? It's not an either / or situation. There are teams that stockpile picks and gain an advantage from doing so. There are also teams that have been good regardless of compensatory picks. We are neither. Why not take advantage of a system that is in place to help teams who lose talented players? Especially when we eschew that advantage for players who aren't worth the picks they replaced. If we had signed Alshon Jeffery, A.J. Bouye, and Tony Jefferson, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
Wayne Cubed Posted March 12, 2017 Posted March 12, 2017 It's not an either / or situation. There are teams that stockpile picks and gain an advantage from doing so. There are also teams that have been good regardless of compensatory picks. We are neither. Why not take advantage of a system that is in place to help teams who lose talented players? Especially when we eschew that advantage for players who aren't worth the picks they replaced. If we had signed Alshon Jeffery, A.J. Bouye, and Tony Jefferson, we wouldn't be having this conversation. And as I pointed out, the Bills have taken advantage, they are in the top 1/3 of teams in total compensatory picks. And before this past year they were in the top 10. The Bills haven't eschewed anything yet. This thread was very, very premature. There are plenty of Bills FAs that will most likely be signed by other teams.
yungmack Posted March 12, 2017 Posted March 12, 2017 And as I pointed out, the Bills have taken advantage, they are in the top 1/3 of teams in total compensatory picks. And before this past year they were in the top 10. The Bills haven't eschewed anything yet. This thread was very, very premature. There are plenty of Bills FAs that will most likely be signed by other teams. Ah, man, now you ruined the OP's thesis that the Bills are clueless and maybe didn't understand compensatory picks.
wilcoam Posted March 12, 2017 Posted March 12, 2017 Correct the 2017 comp picks are not lost yet However we will have to stop signing FA's And cross our fingers at least 3 of ours get signed before Jun 1st That would give us 2 comp picks, likely a 3rd rounder for Gilmore, and a 4th for Woods We won't get anything for Brown unless 4 of our guys get signed and its likely only a 6th or 7th... Unless we sign a FA that negates... jc
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Correct the 2017 comp picks are not lost yet However we will have to stop signing FA's And cross our fingers at least 3 of ours get signed before Jun 1st That would give us 2 comp picks, likely a 3rd rounder for Gilmore, and a 4th for Woods We won't get anything for Brown unless 4 of our guys get signed and its likely only a 6th or 7th... Unless we sign a FA that negates... jc Why bother fielding a team this year. Seriously we need players. So a 15million $ player counts the same as any run of the mill player in this calculation?
BuffaloHokie13 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Based on the title I thought we got hit with a penalty for tampering or something...
2003Contenders Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Folks, please ignore anyone at this point who is freaking out about comp picks. They know not of what they speak. The formula is based on multiple factors: 1. Net loss vs. net gains of QUALIFIED unrestricted free agents. 2. The net-loss vs. net-gain is not purely based on head count. The contract size(s) and playing time also figure into the calculation. Obviously these factors cannot be truly evaluated until AFTER the 2017 season. Which is -- get this -- why the compensatory picks are not announced until late February/early March every year! Bottom line, no one should be wigging out about the Bills' potentially losing out on 2018 compensatory picks.
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Folks, please ignore anyone at this point who is freaking out about comp picks. They know not of what they speak. The formula is based on multiple factors: 1. Net loss vs. net gains of QUALIFIED unrestricted free agents. 2. The net-loss vs. net-gain is not purely based on head count. The contract size(s) and playing time also figure into the calculation. Obviously these factors cannot be truly evaluated until AFTER the 2017 season. Which is -- get this -- why the compensatory picks are not announced until late February/early March every year! Bottom line, no one should be wigging out about the Bills' potentially losing out on 2018 compensatory picks. Thank you! Based on the title I thought we got hit with a penalty for tampering or something... And some people get disciplined for lesser things like using a naughty word!
Estro Posted March 13, 2017 Author Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) Corey White and Jerome Felton are 2 more guys I'd expect to sign with other teams also. Just figured I'd correct the record too. Jerome Felton will not count as a UFA lost for us if he signs elsewhere. Long story short, players that are released than brought back on 1 year deals (like what happened to Felton last year at the start of the season) do not count as lost UFA in the compensatory pick formula. I've read and double re-read all the comp. pick rules on overthecap.com, and that's why I know that. For those that don't believe me or for those who'd like a better understanding of all the complexities of the comp. pick formula, knock yourself out: http://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/ It's a detailed read, but very informative w/ exactly how it works & their are plenty of FO's around the league that put the emphasis on both understanding and executing the acquisition of compensatory draft picks. Edited March 13, 2017 by Estro
wilcoam Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) Sorry, 2003contenders, despite having over 2,000 posts on this site, does not know how the comp picks work The formula for awarding the number of picks could bot be more clearer and so misunderstood Again, the amount of incorrect dis-information on this thread is staggering Estro thx again for the great and factual information and for starting this thread By the way Corey Brown was released by the Panthers so his signing today will not count against jc Edited March 13, 2017 by wilcoam
Boatdrinks Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 The Bills have not valued draft picks as highly as some other franchises have in the Whaley era. So there should be no surprise here; Whaley is unlikely to change his overall MO. There's more than one way to skin a cat, as they say. That said, Whaley has not been very good at drafting players with the picks he does have. Expect his wheeling and dealing of picks to continue , with middling results. Currently , the Bills have to worry about fielding a roster. Whatever the decisions were leading to this predicament, they probably can't worry too much about stockpiling future picks. They could sign only released players and street FAs going forward instead of 2nd /3rd tier FAs. There are only so many ways you can acquire players. Suggesting that they acquire more players via trade seems contrary to the philosophy of acquiring picks. It doesn't seem their prior decisions will allow them too much concern over this in 2017. They are where they are due to Whaley's previous dealings. Personally , I feel Whaley should have been shown the door with Rex, then a reset with a new GM and a HC chosen by him.
wilcoam Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Yes and no Boatdrinks DW got it right in 2015 when he parlayed lost FA's into 2 comp,picks There's no reason he should not be able to do it again this year Especially since Gilmore's loss almost assures a 3rd round comp pick and Woods loss a 4th round Again the NFL gives out 32 picks a year to mitigate FA losses IMO teams that fluff it off and don't take advantage of it are shortchanging themselves... jc
2003Contenders Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Sorry, 2003contenders, despite having over 2,000 posts on this site, does not know how the comp picks work jc Oh, I understand how the comp picks work fine, thank you. Obviously you are new around here, so I will be hospitable. :-) Still, since you called me out, I will respond by saying that nothing I referenced in my post is inaccurate. Perhaps you did not understand something I said, so allow me to reiterate: Compensatory picks stem from a formula developed by the NFL Management Council that is based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The compensatory formula only applies to certain free agents.
liverpoolkev Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) If I asked you if signing guys like Vladimir Ducasse, Jordan Poyer & a Fulback was worth forgoing a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick in next years draft would any smart GM say yes? Serious question, because that's what the Bills have done. You need to have a net loss of UFA's to lock in comp. picks the Bills have failed to do this. As of now, they have gained one more UFA than they've lost and they don't have many of their own UFA's left to be signed elsewhere. For a team that's no where near ready to compete for championships, to be blowing free draft picks to sign what amounts to depth players is asinine. http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/ There are many ways to work the comp. pick system, something teams ike the Ravens, Patriots and Packers seem to do every yr., yet the Bills are still totally lost. You can use trades, pickup guys that are cut, sign guys post June 1. The NFL has put in place a system that compensates and rewards teams for losing good FA's. This year that happens to be Gilmore (3rd rounder) and Wood (4th rounder), but instead of taking advantage of this system the Bills were in a big rush to sign K's, FB's and backup OL that have essentially cost them those 2 solid draft picks. Now that comp. picks can be traded, they are even more valuable, IMO, which makes this error on the Bills part even more infuriating. Another important and often forgotten part of this is that you can fill in holes on your roster with these comp. picks for very low rookie salaries. So say you use the 3rd and 4th round comp. picks on a FB & an OL instead of Vlad Ducasse and Patrick Dimarco. So, instead of paying veteran FA's $2-$3M per year you pay guys close to the vet min. of 600-700k. That's a significant savings that can be reallocated to other areas of need on the roster. For those that want to make the argument that the rookie pleyers may suck compared to the vets that were brought in via FA......fair point: But, my counter tot hat would be to just keep guys like Felton and Corey Graham then & still pick up the free 3rd and 4th round comp. picks. This is one small aspect to roster building and player management, but it's an important one. And it's one that many of the consistently good teams have figured out how to maneuver......and one the Bills still continually EFF UP. Sounds like WGR mumbo jumbo........this isn't hockey ......this isn't the collect the most picks draft., how did that work out for Cleveland last year,.... this is the NFL. as long as the GM continues to stock the team with good players that's all we should care about. So basically..... Bills fans don't care as long as we are heading in the right direction Edited March 13, 2017 by liverpoolkev
Thurman#1 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) And as I pointed out, the Bills have taken advantage, they are in the top 1/3 of teams in total compensatory picks. And before this past year they were in the top 10. The Bills haven't eschewed anything yet. This thread was very, very premature. There are plenty of Bills FAs that will most likely be signed by other teams. Wayne, I'm happy the Bills have used this under some GMs. That's great. But ultimately, I don't care that much because it's not relevant to our present situation. I want them to start using this winning strategy now and in the future. And that's not happening under Whaley. 2017 zero 2016 4th (Cardale Jones) and 6th (Kevon Seymour) 2015 zero 2014 zero Whaley isn't doing this consistently. He just isn't. Same as he doesn't trade back for more picks. That's the smart play, you gather more picks and give yourself more chances, through trades and comp picks. Whaley doesn't even appear aware of these options. During the same four years when Whaley brought in those two guys, this is what some other teams got: Top Ten Ravens: 2014: a third, two fourths and a fifth ... 2015: a 4th and two 5ths ... 2016: two 4ths and a 6th ... 2017: a 3rd ... (over four years, that's two thirds, five 4ths, three 5ths and a 6th: total of 11 and consistent, at least one every year) Bengals: 2014: a 6th and a 7th ... 2015 a 3rd and a 4th ... 2017: a 4th, a 5th, a 6th and a 7th ... (over four years, that's a 3rd, two 4ths, a 5th, two 6ths and two 7ths: total of 8) Cowboys: 2014: three 7ths ... 2016: a 4th (Dak Prescott) and three 6ths ... (over four years, that's a 4th, three 6ths and three 7ths, including Dak Prescott: total 7) Packers: 2014: a 3rd and a 5th .... 2015: three 6ths ... 2016: two 4ths ... 2017: a 5th (over four years, that's a 3rd, two 4ths, two 5ths and three 6ths: total 7, and consistent, at least one each year) Patriots: 2014: a 4th ... 2015: a 3rd and a 7th ... 2016: a 3rd and three 6ths ... 2017: a 5th (over four years, that's two 3rds, a 4th, a 5th, three 6ths and a 7th: total of 8 and consistency, at least one each year) Steelers: 2014: a 3rd, a 5th and a 6th ... 2015 a 6th ... 2016: a 6th ... 2017: a 3rd ... (over four years, that's two 3rds, a 5th, three 6ths: total of 8 and consistency, at least one each year) Broncos: 2015: a 4th and three 7ths (including Trevor Siemian) ... 2016: a 3rd, a 4th and a 6th ... 2017: a 3rd, a 5th, and two 7ths ... (over four years, that's two 3rds, two 4ths, a 5th, a 6th and five 7ths (including Trevor Siemian): total of 11) Chiefs: 2015: a 3rd, two 5ths and a 6th ... 2017: a 3rd, a 5th and two 6ths ... (over four years, that's two 3rds, two 5ths and three 6ths: a total of 7) Seahawks: 2015: a 4th, a 5th and two 6ths ... 2016: a 3rd, a 5th and a 6th ... 2017: two 3rds ... (over four years, that's four 3rds!!!!!!!!!!!!!, a 4th, two 5ths and a 6th: a total of 8) 49ers: 2014: a 3rd ... 2015: a 4th ... 2016: a 4th, a 5th and two 6ths ... 2017: a 4th ... (over four years, that's a 3rd, three 4ths, a 5th and two 6ths: a total of 7 and consistency, at least one each year) Honorable Mention Texans: 2014: a 4th, a 6th and a 7th ... 2015: a 5th and two 6ths ... 2017: a 4th (over four years, that's two 4ths, a 5th, three 6ths and a 7th: a total of 7) Jets: 2014: a 4th and three 6ths, 2017: a 3rd (a 3rd, a 4th and two 6ths: a total of 4) Panthers: 2015 two 5ths ... 2017: a 3rd ... (over four years, that's a 3rd and two 5ths: a total of 3) Rams: 2014: a 6th and two 7ths ... 2015 a 6th ... 2017: a 4th ... (over four years, that's a 4th, two 6ths and two 7ths: a total of 5) Lions: 2014: two 4ths ... 2016: a third and a 6th ... (over four years, that's a 3rd, two 4ths and a 6th: a total of 4) And during those four years, Whaley managed one 4th and one 6th. Oh, and today Belichick moved back eight spots in the draft, from 64th to 72nd, and picked up Kony Ealy, a guy whose contract is low and ends in one year, making him a likely UFA who'll count towards comp picks. They're always working this. We aren't. And should be. Edited March 13, 2017 by Thurman#1
GunnerBill Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 We were never likely to get many compensatory picks this year as last year we signed our key free agents. Even the Ravens who are the compensatory pick kings do not let high quality players walk just to get picks. What they have always done is willingly churned the middle of the roster.
QCity Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 If I asked you if signing guys like Vladimir Ducasse, Jordan Poyer & a Fulback was worth forgoing a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick in next years draft would any smart GM say yes? Serious question, because that's what the Bills have done. You need to have a net loss of UFA's to lock in comp. picks the Bills have failed to do this. As of now, they have gained one more UFA than they've lost and they don't have many of their own UFA's left to be signed elsewhere. For a team that's no where near ready to compete for championships, to be blowing free draft picks to sign what amounts to depth players is asinine. http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/ There are many ways to work the comp. pick system, something teams ike the Ravens, Patriots and Packers seem to do every yr., yet the Bills are still totally lost. You can use trades, pickup guys that are cut, sign guys post June 1. The NFL has put in place a system that compensates and rewards teams for losing good FA's. This year that happens to be Gilmore (3rd rounder) and Wood (4th rounder), but instead of taking advantage of this system the Bills were in a big rush to sign K's, FB's and backup OL that have essentially cost them those 2 solid draft picks. Now that comp. picks can be traded, they are even more valuable, IMO, which makes this error on the Bills part even more infuriating. Another important and often forgotten part of this is that you can fill in holes on your roster with these comp. picks for very low rookie salaries. So say you use the 3rd and 4th round comp. picks on a FB & an OL instead of Vlad Ducasse and Patrick Dimarco. So, instead of paying veteran FA's $2-$3M per year you pay guys close to the vet min. of 600-700k. That's a significant savings that can be reallocated to other areas of need on the roster. For those that want to make the argument that the rookie pleyers may suck compared to the vets that were brought in via FA......fair point: But, my counter tot hat would be to just keep guys like Felton and Corey Graham then & still pick up the free 3rd and 4th round comp. picks. This is one small aspect to roster building and player management, but it's an important one. And it's one that many of the consistently good teams have figured out how to maneuver......and one the Bills still continually EFF UP. You're absolutely correct, but good luck trying to explain this. The football IQ of some of the replies in this thread is embarrassing. I watch other teams manipulate picks years down the road with the shrewdness of a chess grandmaster, while Doug Whaley can't figure out how to open the box. 2. The net-loss vs. net-gain is not purely based on head count. Incorrect. It is.
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