dave mcbride Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 Oh no, I know the market. Don't worry about that. Here are the deals of people who started at some point for their team in 2016 having been signed as bridge guys: RGIII - 2 years; $15m; $6.75 guaranteed; $7.5m per year McCown - 3 years; $14m; $6.25m guaranteed; $4.6m per year Keenum - 2 years; $3.9m; $0m guaranteed; $1.85m per year Fitzpatrick - 2 years; $12m; $12m guaranteed; $6m per year Bradford - 2 years; $35m; $22m guaranteed; $17.5m per year Gabbert - 3 years; $6m; $0.5m guaranteed; $2m per year So you look at those Quartebacks and say "the only one comparable to Taylor as a player is Bradford". Fine. So let's take Bradford as the top of the "bridge" market. His cap hit per year is in the same ball park as Tyrod.... but his 2 year contract was always designed with an acceptable out after the first year. If the Vikings wanted to cut him now (in a world where poor Teddy B was healthy again) it would save them $14m against the cap and cost them just $4m in dead money. If that was the Tyrod situation - pay him $17.5m this year and have only $4m dead money if you cut him after 2017 then it would be a no brainer that you take up the option. I've even advocated paying him as much as $20m for 1 year if you could find a way of vastly reducing the dead money associated with a pre-2018 cut. If the Bills cut Tyrod pre-2018 on this contract that is $14.5m in dead cap. It is too much. So no, once you get below the cap hits per year and properly dig into the contract you find it it not the going rate for a bridge. Fitz Had a one year, $12 million deal in reality. http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2016/07/ryan_fitzpatricks_jets_contract_heres_exactly_how.html
GunnerBill Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 No offense, but I'm starting to think that the phrase "long term" is the enemy of reason among Bills fans. This is a short term league, and McDermott WILL be fired if he has successive 4-12 seasons. Nothing is precluding the Bills from paying Taylor his garden variety contractual salary, drafting a qb early, and still managing the cap with relative ease. I think this approach is why it is 17 years. We are constantly trying to add those few pieces and reload to make a playoff run. I am not advocating a tank. I am advocating take a step back and look at how they really want to build this team the next 3 or 4 years.
Maury Ballstein Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 (edited) I guess I'm in the minority.... but I think this is an easy decision. You pick up the option because he's the best one available and the Tyrod led offense WAS NOT THE PROBLEM. FIX THE DEFENSE, LEAVE THE OFFENSE ALONE. It was the McCoy led offense btw. Run game 1 Pass game 32 Edited March 6, 2017 by Ryan L Billz
simpleman Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 According to Yahoo's Charles Robinson, "multiple NFL sources" anticipate free agent Mike Glennon landing a deal worth $14-15 million per year. Remind me again how we're grossly overpaying for Tyrod. As mothers used to say, "If all your friends jumped off a cliff, would you do it too?" Stupid is as stupid does. Would you ask the Texans for advice on how much we should pay for TT?
Buffalo86 Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 It would take a foolish front office to pay Glennon that much. Maybe we should consider ourselves lucky to be so cash strapped.
Dorkington Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 It would take a foolish front office to pay Glennon that much. Maybe we should consider ourselves lucky to be so cash strapped. Or that's just the reality of how much the position costs.
GunnerBill Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 Fitz Had a one year, $12 million deal in reality. http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2016/07/ryan_fitzpatricks_jets_contract_heres_exactly_how.html Yes... I reflect that in the above... it was $12m fully guaranteed.
bobobonators Posted March 6, 2017 Author Posted March 6, 2017 As mothers used to say, "If all your friends jumped off a cliff, would you do it too?" Stupid is as stupid does. Would you ask the Texans for advice on how much we should pay for TT? People who bring up this tired argument are out of touch with the basic principles of supply and demand. Paying a QB - who was named to back to back pro bowls and has a ridiculously good TD/INT ratio and is still 27yrs old - a salary that amounts to a cap hit that would put him around the 20th highest paid QB in the NFL isnt stupid is as stupid does.
GunnerBill Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 This seems to be the mentality from most and I don't understand it....it doesn't have to be one or the other. You can keep Tyrod AND draft a first or second round QB. Why is that so hard to comprehend for some? It isn't..... but you would hope by year 2 that Tyrod is the backup.... and do I want to pay that to a backup when this team has so many other holes or by then do I want to be putting pieces around my young starting Quarterback?
cd1 Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 Well, one thing is, if we dump TT and go with X (the bargin guy), Cardale, and a Rookie, most everyone (in this thread anyways) will just sit back and enjoy next season secure in the notion that "hey, at least we saved a ton of money". You know THAT is why I watch football!
dave mcbride Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 It isn't..... but you would hope by year 2 that Tyrod is the backup.... and do I want to pay that to a backup when this team has so many other holes or by then do I want to be putting pieces around my young starting Quarterback? No, you hope he takes another step forward with a better receiving corps and builds on what he showed in the Miami and Seattle games. Well, one thing is, if we dump TT and go with X (the bargin guy), Cardale, and a Rookie, most everyone (in this thread anyways) will just sit back and enjoy next season secure in the notion that "hey, at least we saved a ton of money". You know THAT is why I watch football! Ha! Good post.
GunnerBill Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 No, you hope he takes another step forward with a better receiving corps and builds on what he showed in the Miami and Seattle games. Well you see that is probably why we disagree. I don't think you are ever going to get that Tyrod for 16 games. You clearly still have some hope he could find that consistency and thereby become a viable long term option. I don't believe that is possible. I see too much on tape that has stagnated or got worse from year 1 that prevents me believing he could ever put it together for 16 games. If I thought that you could get Seattle or Miami Tyrod for 16 games I would have picked up the option immediately. I don't - that is why I am in the "he is a bridge" camp.
Big Turk Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 (edited) Oh no, I know the market. Don't worry about that. Here are the deals of people who started at some point for their team in 2016 having been signed as bridge guys: RGIII - 2 years; $15m; $6.75 guaranteed; $7.5m per year McCown - 3 years; $14m; $6.25m guaranteed; $4.6m per year Keenum - 2 years; $3.9m; $0m guaranteed; $1.85m per year Fitzpatrick - 2 years; $12m; $12m guaranteed; $6m per year Bradford - 2 years; $35m; $22m guaranteed; $17.5m per year Gabbert - 3 years; $6m; $0.5m guaranteed; $2m per year So you look at those Quartebacks and say "the only one comparable to Taylor as a player is Bradford". Fine. So let's take Bradford as the top of the "bridge" market. His cap hit per year is in the same ball park as Tyrod.... but his 2 year contract was always designed with an acceptable out after the first year. If the Vikings wanted to cut him now (in a world where poor Teddy B was healthy again) it would save them $14m against the cap and cost them just $4m in dead money. If that was the Tyrod situation - pay him $17.5m this year and have only $4m dead money if you cut him after 2017 then it would be a no brainer that you take up the option. I've even advocated paying him as much as $20m for 1 year if you could find a way of vastly reducing the dead money associated with a pre-2018 cut. If the Bills cut Tyrod pre-2018 on this contract that is $14.5m in dead cap. It is too much. So no, once you get below the cap hits per year and properly dig into the contract you find it it not the going rate for a bridge. EDIT: and I am still not saying that means you have to cut him. But if you don't you are overpaying. There is no question about it. The evidence is there. I have been 50/50 all year, I see the argument both ways..... cutting Tyrod probably means you are worse at Quarterback in 2017 than you were in 15 and 16. I get it. Keeping him makes it another 2 years you are bumbling along with a guy you know is not the long term answer. Neither is a particularly attractive option. My gut says cut ties and try and get your guy in the draft and bring in a Siemian or someone to compete / start initially. Except 5 of those 6 on that list are scrubs who are not starting QB's in this league...Bradford is, Tyrod is....that list isn't really quite an accurate comparison...but you are definitely spot on with the options the Bills are faced with... Edited March 6, 2017 by matter2003
John from Riverside Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 Well you see that is probably why we disagree. I don't think you are ever going to get that Tyrod for 16 games. You clearly still have some hope he could find that consistency and thereby become a viable long term option. I don't believe that is possible. I see too much on tape that has stagnated or got worse from year 1 that prevents me believing he could ever put it together for 16 games. If I thought that you could get Seattle or Miami Tyrod for 16 games I would have picked up the option immediately. I don't - that is why I am in the "he is a bridge" camp. I think it is hard to make that determinination when he is not throwing to his starting receivers
jrober38 Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 If Glennon gets $14-15 million per year, then Taylor is severely underpaid on his current deal.
jrober38 Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 Who is going to give a **** about how much money Tyrod is making if the guy who takes his spot is better? And if he's better then the team would've found a franchise QB and the team will be winning football games. You really think Bills fans are going to say, "Yea we are winning, and this new QB is great but look at all that cap space Tyrod is taking up as a back up." The Bills can cut Taylor and designate him a post June 1st cut and clear a ton of cap space. His contract isn't an issue at all. Pegula will have to pay him his guaranteed money, but his contract has little impact on our cap situation if we find a better QB.
Wayne Cubed Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 Well, one thing is, if we dump TT and go with X (the bargin guy), Cardale, and a Rookie, most everyone (in this thread anyways) will just sit back and enjoy next season secure in the notion that "hey, at least we saved a ton of money". You know THAT is why I watch football! That's not the point. Tyrod requires a good/very good team around him to succeed. He hasn't shown he can carry the team. By picking up his option, the Bills are limiting what they can do, financially, to maintain the defense and offense, which Tyrod needs to win games. As it stands the Bills next season will need a #2 WR, #3 WR, FB, RT, DE, LBx2, and probably a safety or 2. All of that with $18m in cap space and 6 draft picks, which will take up $5m in cap space themselves. So with that in mind can the Bills realistically compete next year picking up Tyrods contract as it is? Or could they get the same level of QB play, save some money, and build a good team for a rookie QB to come into? Who is going to give a **** about how much money Tyrod is making if the guy who takes his spot is better? And if he's better then the team would've found a franchise QB and the team will be winning football games. You really think Bills fans are going to say, "Yea we are winning, and this new QB is great but look at all that cap space Tyrod is taking up as a back up." Scott, if Tyrod is taking up a lot of cap space and you have a rookie QB playing well, you are missing out on something. The rookie QB contract would be cheap at that point, the Bills could be building a team around the rookie QB while he is still on the cheap.
jrober38 Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 Scott, if Tyrod is taking up a lot of cap space and you have a rookie QB playing well, you are missing out on something. The rookie QB contract would be cheap at that point, the Bills could be building a team around the rookie QB while he is still on the cheap. Designate him a post June 1st cut and you clear $13 mil in cap space next year...
Wayne Cubed Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 Designate him a post June 1st cut and you clear $13 mil in cap space next year... Exactly, and use that money to rebuild the team. That way a rookie QB is coming into a nice situation.
CodeMonkey Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 According to Yahoo's Charles Robinson, "multiple NFL sources" anticipate free agent Mike Glennon landing a deal worth $14-15 million per year. Remind me again how we're grossly overpaying for Tyrod. Because Glennon's agent is trying to bump his market value doesn't make it so. Also, because one player is overpaid doesn't change if another player is or not.
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