Gunner's FINAL Mock 2017 - v.3.0 now posted (see page 4)!

[YoloinOhio]

Nice work Gunner. I don't think the Chargers will trade up and don't think they will draft Malik Hooker. I think they stay at 7 and Foster will be their pick there. I agree there won't be a bunch of QBs going in the 1st but one will go very high. I have a feeling it's either Mahomes or Trubisky to SF.

I predict the Bills successfully trade down, grab an extra 2nd and 4th, and take the best available WLB at their new 1st round spot. Then QB in the 2nd along with best available player at WR, TE, CB or DE.

[Coach Tuesday]

Nice work Gunner. I don't think the Chargers will trade up and don't think they will draft Malik Hooker. I think they stay at 7 and Foster will be their pick there. I agree there won't be a bunch of QBs going in the 1st but one will go very high. I have a feeling it's either Mahomes or Trubisky to SF.

I predict the Bills successfully trade down, grab an extra 2nd and 4th, and take the best available WLB at their new 1st round spot. Then QB in the 2nd along with best available player at WR, TE, CB or DE.

 

I can see that happening. They may think that Peterman or Webb in Round 2 would offer better value and would give them a Kirk Cousins-type player to develop for a year or two under Tyrod. If Tyrod excels, you can trade them; if he falters, they could take the reins.

Edited April 13, 2017 by Coach Tuesday

[JohnC]

Nice work Gunner. I don't think the Chargers will trade up and don't think they will draft Malik Hooker. I think they stay at 7 and Foster will be their pick there. I agree there won't be a bunch of QBs going in the 1st but one will go very high. I have a feeling it's either Mahomes or Trubisky to SF.

I predict the Bills successfully trade down, grab an extra 2nd and 4th, and take the best available WLB at their new 1st round spot. Then QB in the 2nd along with best available player at WR, TE, CB or DE.

Because this draft is so rich with talent on the defensive side more teams will desire trading down than moving up. That will result in the value of the return to trade down to be less. The so-called value chart will be devalued.

 

You make an excellent observation that pivot points will come quickly in this draft, starting with San Fran. Do they go for a qb or do they play it cautiously and go with the best player? If they take a qb then the the fallout for the other qbs is going to happen sooner in this draft than later.

 

As I have often stated to the point of belaboring the point the Bills will be making a big mistake if they don't select a qb with their first pick, including trading down to still do so.

[thebandit27]

Nice work Gunner. I don't think the Chargers will trade up and don't think they will draft Malik Hooker. I think they stay at 7 and Foster will be their pick there. I agree there won't be a bunch of QBs going in the 1st but one will go very high. I have a feeling it's either Mahomes or Trubisky to SF.

I predict the Bills successfully trade down, grab an extra 2nd and 4th, and take the best available WLB at their new 1st round spot. Then QB in the 2nd along with best available player at WR, TE, CB or DE.

 

Opinion or #scoop?

[YoloinOhio]

 

I can see that happening. They may think that Peterman or Webb in Round 2 would offer better value and would give them a Kirk Cousins-type player to develop for a year or two under Tyrod. If Tyrod excels, you can trade them; if he falters, they could take the reins.

its worth noting that Peterman is the only one so far that they've actually brought to OBD. May not mean anything but interesting nonetheless.

[YoloinOhio]

 

Opinion or #scoop?

No trade up is uninformed opinion ... don't think Hooker will be going there is "informed" opinion ... Foster is who I think they should take

[Dr. Who]

Because this draft is so rich with talent on the defensive side more teams will desire trading down than moving up. That will result in the value of the return to trade down to be less. The so-called value chart will be devalued.

 

You make an excellent observation that pivot points will come quickly in this draft, starting with San Fran. Do they go for a qb or do they play it cautiously and go with the best player? If they take a qb then the the fallout for the other qbs is going to happen sooner in this draft than later.

 

As I have often stated to the point of belaboring the point the Bills will be making a big mistake if they don't select a qb with their first pick, including trading down to still do so.

Well, I'm with you and Jeffismagic on this -- and I absolutely see the scheme fit with lb and Foster, Bills weak at lb, etc. -- but if we pass on Trubisky and Mahomes to fill a hole on D, it will be more of the same bad strategy. I think this qb class is underrated. The fact that they all need a year of seasoning has folks buying that this is 2013 redux. It's not. Ah, well, at least this mock, it isn't another cb.

Edited April 13, 2017 by Dr. Who

[YoloinOhio]

Well, I'm with you and Jeffismagic on this -- and I absolutely see the scheme fit with lb and Foster, Bills weak at lb, etc. -- but if we pass on Trubisky and Mahomes to fill a hole on D, it will be more of the same bad strategy. I think this qb class is underrated. The fact that they all need a year of seasoning has folks buying that this is 2013 redux. It's not. Ah, well, at least this version, it isn't another cb.

i don't think it's like 2013. More like 2014. I'm good with the QB pick coming in the 2nd if they really like one. Don't think any are likely graded high enough by the Bills to warrant a top pick though. Jmo. I think Zach Cunningham is McD's type of player at WLB and will be our pick somewhere mid to later first after trading back. Edited April 13, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[Dr. Who]

i don't think it's 2013. More like 2014. I'm good with the pick coming in the 2nd if they really like one. I think Zach Cunningham is McD's type of player and will be our pick somewhere mid to later first after trading back.

You may be right, but all the qbs worth taking will be long gone by #44.

[YoloinOhio]

You may be right, but all the qbs worth taking will be long gone by #44.

that would be where we differ, I don't think that will be the case.

[H2o]

Great stuff brother

[Dr. Who]

that would be where we differ, I don't think that will be the case.

Yes, I think teams actually have the qbs rated higher than the popular view among most pundits and there are too many qb needy teams, including teams like the Cards and Steelers with aging vets that will be looking to add qb early. I don't really include Kizer, though I suspect he will go before #44 as well. Mahomes, Trubisky, and Watson are the qbs I am interested in. If one of them is there at #44, I will be very surprised. I will then be apoplectic when the Bills pass on whoever is there to take a different player.

Edited April 13, 2017 by Dr. Who

[jeffismagic]

You may be right, but all the qbs worth taking will be long gone by #44.

Come on man, get on the Nathan Peterman hype train. Did you know he took snaps under center?!

[GunnerBill]

So here goes.... my final first round mock of 2017. The last one always gets tough because you have to decide how much of the information that does the rounds in the final 24 hours is misinformation. I hope I have struck the right balance this time here goes........

 

ENJOY THE DRAFT!

 

 

1 Browns - Myles Garrett, Defensive End, Texas A&M

PICK UNCHANGED - I am nervous about the Trubisky #1 rumours though.

 

2 49ers - Jamal Adams, Safety, LSU

PICK UNCHANGED - If the 9ers stay at #2 I think Adams is their pick. Don't be shocked though if the Browns pick Garrett at 1 and then pay a King's ransom to get up and take Trubisky at #2 to keep the ownership happy.

 

3 Bears - DeShaun Watson, Quarterback, Clemson

PICK UNCHANGED - More nervous about this one than I have been but I am sticking with Watson at #3.

 

4 Jaguars – Soloman Thomas, Defensive End, Stanford

The Jaguars are an enigma here at #4, but they need to get better pass rush. Doug Marrone’s Bills teams lived and died by pass rush and Tom Coughlin rode great D-lines to two Superbowl wins with the Giants. The Jaguars picked Dante Fowler Junior in the 1^st round in 2015 but so far that hasn’t worked out so Thomas could well be the target.

 

Pick change - #4 was previously the Los Angeles Chargers picking Malik Hooker, Safety

 

5 TRADE - Browns – Mitch Trubisky, Quarterback, University of North Carolina (Browns get #5 & #83; Titans get #12, #52, #65 & a 2018 4^th round pick)

PICK UNCHANGED - I still have the Browns using their 2^nd first round pick on Trubisky but now as part of a trade up to keep him away from the Jets and Bills who might also be interested.

 

6 Jets - Marshon Lattimore, Cornerback, Ohio State

PICK UNCHANGED – second best player in the whole draft by my board and plays at a position of need. No brainer.

 

7 Chargers – Malik Hooker, Safety, Ohio State

PICK UNCHANGED – I had considered a trade up previously but I think with Cleveland trying to get up for their Quarterback the price of picks higher up is now too high so the Chargers just sit tight and take what falls.

 

8 Panthers – Christian McCaffrey, Running Back, Stanford

There is a lot of heat around on this one and it does make a certain amount of sense. Jonathan Stewart was injured a lot last season and McCaffrey is versatile enough to take some of the backfield workload whilst also operating as that short route option that Cam Newton has been missing in the passing game.

 

Pick change - previously Soloman Thomas, Defensive End

 

9 Bengals - Jonathan Allen, Defensive Tackle, Alabama

PICK UNCHANGED – Pretty much best player available for a line that needs to get younger and more productive than their 2016 efforts.

 

10 Bills – Corey Davis, Wide Receiver, Western Michigan

The Bills have multiple needs and could go any number of ways at #10 but based on rumours from within the organisation receiver is very much an option and Davis is the top wideout on their board and mine.

 

Pick change - previously Rueben Foster, Linebacker

 

11 Saints – Derek Barnett, Defensive End, Tennessee

I have had the Saints going with a defensive back in previous updates but given they have two first rounders and this is a deep secondary class maybe they wait to address the back end and start with the front end. They need someone to start opposite Cameron Jordan and provide some pass rush….. Barnett may just be that guy.

 

Pick change - previously Marlon Humphrey, Cornerback

 

12 (From Browns) Titans – Mike Williams, Wide Receiver, Clemson

PICK UNCHANGED – This is the ideal outcome for Tennessee as they slide back seven spots and still pick up their true #1 receiver and get back their 2^nd round pick that they traded to Cleveland in the move up for Jack Conklin last April.

 

13 Cardinals – OJ Howard, Tight End, Alabama

I think the Cardinals will target a Quarterback high in this draft, I am just not convinced it will be here where I think they take OJ Howard to give Carson Palmer’s failing arm a big intermediate target in the middle of the field.

 

Pick change - previously Corey Davis, Wide Receiver

 

14 Eagles – Marlon Humphrey, Cornerback, Alabama

I am going back to my version 1.0 selection here. If Humphrey is still on the board at this spot he is a really good fit for Jim Schwartz in this defense that is in desperate need of corners.

 

Pick change - previously John Ross, Wide Receiver

 

15 Colts – Leonard Fournette, Running Back, LSU

The Fournette slide comes to a halt. I personally think the Colts need to focus on defense but Frank Gore is currently their starting running back and is around 107 years old so the chance to take Fournette here might be too great to pass up.

 

Pick change - previously Hassan Reddick, Linebacker

 

16 Ravens – John Ross, Wide Receiver, Washington

I have had the Ravens going pass rusher at this spot all draft season, but with the top 3 off the board this now feels like a reach. They could slide back a few spots if someone wanted to come up for John Ross or they could simply stand pat and select the speedy wideout themselves.

 

Pick change - previously Derek Barnett, Defensive End

 

17 Redskins – Hassan Reddick, Linebacker, Temple

Washington needs linebackers and at this stage Reddick might just be too intriguing a prospect to miss. I had Dalvin Cook here in my last update and if the Redskins are comfortable with him off the field he might still be their selection.

 

Pick change - previously Dalvin Cook, Running Back

 

18 Titans – Tre’Davius White, Cornerback, LSU

I have long thought that the Titans would split their two first round picks one on offense and one on defense but had liked the idea of them picking up a sideline to sideline linebacker here. They still have a need at corner though, despite bringing Logan Ryan over from New England in free agency. White would be a year 1 starter.

 

Pick change, previously Zach Cunningham, Linebacker

 

19 TRADE! Giants - Ryan Ramzyck, Offensive Tackle, Wisconsin (Giants get #19 and #162; Buccaneers get #23 and #87)

PICK UNCHANGED – The offensive line run starts right around pick 20 for me so I still think the Giants might want to get here to be ahead of that queue and get Ramzyck.

 

20 Broncos – Forrest Lamp, Guard, Western Kentucky

Denver would likely go Ramzyck if the is still on the board at this stage but if not maybe they select Lamp who is the highest graded lineman on my draft board.

 

Pick change - previously Cam Robinson, Offensive Tackle

 

21 Lions - Malick McDowell Defensive Tackle Michigan State

PICK UNCHANGED – Sticking to my guns on this one, and the Lions are staying in the state of Michigan for their first rounder.

 

22 Dolphins – Rueben Foster, Linebacker, Alabama

Foster is in for a dramatic fall in my opinion. There are character concerns, failed drug tests and injury concerns all playing into a cocktail of bad that is likely to scare teams off on draft night. One team that has proven it is willing to take a calculated risk on talent that is falling is the Miami Dolphins who may well repeat their bold move for Tunsil last April.

 

Pick change – previously Forrest Lamp, Guard

 

23 (From Giants) Buccaneers – David Njoku, Tight End, Miami

I think tight end makes a lot of sense here for the Buccaneers as they continue to build around Jameis Winston. Unlike my last update Howard is off the board but Njoku is also a first round talent and might even be more dynamic after the catch.

 

Pick change - previously OJ Howard, Tight End

 

24 Raiders – Jarrad Davis, Linebacker, Florid

Provided that Derek Carr returns from injury as good as he was before breaking his leg late in 2016 then the Raiders are just a small improvement in the defense away from being very genuine Superbowl contenders. Jarrad Davis has a bit of aggression and swagger about him that would appear a very nice fit for the silver and black right in the middle of that defense.

 

Pick change - #24 was previously the Cardinals selecting DeShone Kizer, Quarterback

 

25 Texans - Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback, Texas Tech

PICK UNCHANGED – As I have said all offseason the Texans need a Quarterback. Mahomes is a swing for the fences but he is a swing they have to take.

 

26 Seahawks – Cam Robinson, Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Another pick where I am reverting to my version 1.0 selection and going with Cam Robinson. Whether he ends up at left tackle, right tackle or at guard he will likely upgrade Seattle’s line.

 

Pick change - previously Taco Charlton, Defensive End

 

27 Chiefs – Zach Cunningham, Linebacker, Vanderbilt

The Chiefs in recent years are one of those teams that always seem to draft a guy the year before it is a pressing need. Zach Cunningham profiles pretty nicely as a long term replacement for Derrick Johnson.

 

Pick change - previously Christian McCaffrey, Running Back

 

28 Cowboys – Gareon Conley, Cornerback, Ohio State

I should start by saying I think Conley is an overrated prospect. In my opinion he has been ridiculously overhyped as the draft has approached. The rape allegations are expected to drop him out of the 1^st round now but what about if Dallas is high on him? They have shown a willingness to overlook character questions before and they have a major need at corner.

 

Pick change - previously Tre’Davious White, Cornerback

 

29 Packers - Takkarist McKinley, Outside Linebacker - UCLA

PICK UNCHANGED – The Packers biggest need is pass rush. McKinley fits as a 3-4 OLB.

 

30 Steelers - Jabrill Peppers, Safety, Michigan

PICK UNCHANGED - The Steelers are believed to love Peppers athleticism and potential. Will they hate his diluted sample result or be able to overlook that enough to select him? My guess is that they will.

 

31 TRADE Cardinals – DeShone Kizer, Quarterback, Notre Dame (Cardinals get #31; Falcons get #45 & #77)

Arizona is doing its due diligence on these Quarterbacks because of the alarming drop off in Carson Palmer’s playin 2016. Because of that, and the risk that the rookie may have to play at some point in 2017, I think Arians goes with the one QB he thinks is “ready to go”. I very much suspect that is Kizer and he trades up here to get the 5^th year option and to make sure he is ahead of the Saints who might also have their eye on a guy to groom for the future.

 

32 Saints - Budda Baker, Safety, Washington

PICK UNCHANGED - I still like this selection. If the Saints go pass rush at #11 I think defensive back must be the favourite for #32. Baker would be the BPA by my board.

[thebandit27]

Really good stuff Gunner; enjoy the draft.