2020 Our Year For Sure Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 I like Cian Fahey, but the gate swings both ways with this type of analysis https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fanragsports.com/nfl/patrick-mahomes-best-qb-nfl-draft/amp/ Want
HappyDays Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 Nice stat. Justin Higdon @afc2nfc 1st down conversion % on 3rd&long passes (7+ yd) this year Mahomes 45.2 Trubisky 40.8 Watson 38.3 Kizer 33.9 Allen 32.7 Falk 30 Kaaya 26.2 I hadn't seen this before Bandit but it's cool to see because I have Mahomes as QB1 and Trubisky as QB2. Stats are basically useless when evaluating the jump from college to the NFL. Does that stat have any kind of past correlation? I can't find the data anywhere.
thebandit27 Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 His analysis makes no sense even in his own terms. He concludes that Mahomes's floor is Eli Manning and his ceiling is Ben Roethlisberger which is an absurd thing to say in any context. He spends one section trashing Mahomes's decision making, then says his decision making is worthy of a 3rd round prospect. All he does is point out Mahomes's rare wow plays, which yes he does have, while downplaying his flaws. I mean he mentions all of Mahomes's flaws but concludes if you can just fix those flaws he will be fine. Well that's the point of the other article, QBs rarely fix major flaws like that. Like it's pretty well established that Mahomes's footwork is his worst trait, but that article only brings it up once, says he sometimes misses "day one" footwork mechanics. So he ignores all of Mahomes's flaws and buys into the big plays everyone with a Twitter account has seen. Well the entire body of work taken as a whole is scary. Many of his wow plays are because he's playing against lesser talent. This article points out a few plays where his receiver bailed him out or a defender dropped a sure pick six. He won't get away with that in the NFL. He lacks the basic fundamentals and arm strength isn't enough to overcome that. You're missing the point. ANY article thay focuses on a handful of plays will invariably fail to assess his entire body of work. As for my opinion, I've watched every throw of his from both 2015 and 2016 (twice), so I feel darn comfortable with what I'm putting out there.
billspro Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 I have no clue why there's this odd need to perpetuate a myth that every Mahomes supporter is simply focused on his arm strength. It's bizarre to say the least. Not that I expect everyone to have read my QB evaluation thread, but I covered my position on him at length: solid measurables, can extend plays--but also shows the ability to speed up his snap-to-release time when necessary, able to make his pre-snap reads, can drop his deep throws in the bucket, and most importantly he showed progress in terms of keeping his feet calm and climbing the pocket more often in 2016. He's not a perfect prospect; he needs to improve upon his erratic footwork and develop more of a comfort level in the pocket--become more consistent with climbing to safety instead of breaking out the back (sound familiar?). Nearly every Mahomes supporter acknowledges all of this; perhaps it makes more sense to make your analysis about the player and not his supporters. I just wouldn't feel comfortable with him in the first or second round. I would be very happy with him as a third round prospect. It is hard to find plays that will translate to the NFL on tape. I have watched a lot of his games. That system is very QB friendly but is nothing like an NFL offence. Goff essentially played in the same system last year and his first year was horrific. He makes some absolutely spectacular plays on tape, Manziel like. I always get concerned when I see a QB back pedal in the face of pressure, run into sacks, and feel pressure when it is not there.
OldTimer1960 Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 I know that it is Only Bucky Brooks' opinion, but this article is pretty in line with how I see Patrick Mahomes (see my earlier post) http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000796741/article/cleveland-browns-dont-need-qb-richard-sherman-trade-talk
OldTimer1960 Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 You're missing the point. ANY article thay focuses on a handful of plays will invariably fail to assess his entire body of work. As for my opinion, I've watched every throw of his from both 2015 and 2016 (twice), so I feel darn comfortable with what I'm putting out there. Bandit: I really respect your opinion on these players. I am sure that you have watched more than the two games that I watched. I see the play making talent that you see, but I also think that there are some (many?) of those big plays that might be turnovers in the NFL. Can/will he learn to be more disciplined? Can/will he learn to read complex NFL defenses will running a more conventional offense? I don't know the answer. If he does, he could be outstanding, if not he might not last long in the league. If the Bills are in a gambling mood on draft day, I can see the talent that would interest them. I am just not sure it would be a good bet.
thebandit27 Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 Bandit: I really respect your opinion on these players. I am sure that you have watched more than the two games that I watched. I see the play making talent that you see, but I also think that there are some (many?) of those big plays that might be turnovers in the NFL. Can/will he learn to be more disciplined? Can/will he learn to read complex NFL defenses will running a more conventional offense? I don't know the answer. If he does, he could be outstanding, if not he might not last long in the league. If the Bills are in a gambling mood on draft day, I can see the talent that would interest them. I am just not sure it would be a good bet. I appreciate the sentiment! It seems we're pretty much in agreement on Mahomes. He's not my QB1 because he's a clean prospect who's an odds-on bet to be great; he's my QB1 because of what he could be if he continues to progress. One of the reasons that I'd like Buffalo to take a shot on him is that tyrod is under contract for 2 years, so he has time to work on his mechanical flaws.
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 ...so what are the deterrents that have this kid rated in the middle of the pack among draft pundits in their "Top 10 QB Draft Picks" assessments?.......pledging my ignorance because I do not get to see college ball..................
17 Josh Allen Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 (edited) Well Guess what some other teams will feel comfortable like the Cards, Steelers, Giants and Saints. They will be happy to scoup him up in the 1st round and then he will lead there teams to playoff and Super Bowl wins. But we're probably doomed anyways because I got a gut feeling the Jets will grab him. So keep studing those draft boards for the wide outs and defense backs. Maybe you will wake up out of your slumber and get on board the Mahomes train. We will not be a consistent winer and make the playoffs consitantly until we get a QB. We need to start drafting some QB's . Nothing else matters. I repeat NOTHING else matters. You could have 7 Jerry Rices it would not matter, you could have 5 first round draft picks it would not matter. Unless you draft QB's you are not going any where. You and me and everyone else is just wasting there time. Prediction Mr. Mahomes will be the first QB picked in this draft and he will go on to win 2 Super Bowls and make the Hall of Fame. I don't hide I tell it like it is. I just wouldn't feel comfortable with him in the first or second round. I would be very happy with him as a third round prospect. It is hard to find plays that will translate to the NFL on tape. I have watched a lot of his games. That system is very QB friendly but is nothing like an NFL offence. Goff essentially played in the same system last year and his first year was horrific. He makes some absolutely spectacular plays on tape, Manziel like. I always get concerned when I see a QB back pedal in the face of pressure, run into sacks, and feel pressure when it is not there. Edited April 2, 2017 by billsareback
John from Riverside Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 Came here to post this, this is an excellent breakdown of Mahomes's game. It even compares to Tyrod briefly at the end. To sum it up: poor ball placement, poor pocket presence, poor footwork, poor anticipation, poor decision making. But he looks good when he breaks out of the pocket to the right. No thanks at #10. agreed...i would jump all over him in the 2nd though
jeffismagic Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 agreed...i would jump all over him in the 2nd though Wow, the CoT wants to discount QB's in the draft so they can continue to wait for Tyrod. Touching.
Just Joshin' Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 Let's look at this a different way..... By all accounts, McDermott is a structured and disciplined coach. Will he be in favor of a QB who may not be in that mode? I think McDermott would be in favor of aggression but controlled aggression.
jeffismagic Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 Let's look at this a different way..... By all accounts, McDermott is a structured and disciplined coach. Will he be in favor of a QB who may not be in that mode? I think McDermott would be in favor of aggression but controlled aggression. If the choice is McDermott's my guess is he will punt. So no QB for Buffalo this year.
YoloinOhio Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 (edited) If the choice is McDermott's my guess is he will punt. So no QB for Buffalo this year. gonna hold on tight to that narrative as long as you possibly can, eh Edited April 2, 2017 by YoloinOhio
thebandit27 Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 I just wouldn't feel comfortable with him in the first or second round. I would be very happy with him as a third round prospect. It is hard to find plays that will translate to the NFL on tape. I have watched a lot of his games. That system is very QB friendly but is nothing like an NFL offence. Goff essentially played in the same system last year and his first year was horrific. He makes some absolutely spectacular plays on tape, Manziel like. I always get concerned when I see a QB back pedal in the face of pressure, run into sacks, and feel pressure when it is not there. Somehow I missed this post--sorry about that I really don't have an issue with any of what you said. It's merely a case where I like the upside of his skill set enough to gamble on him. Let's face it--each of the top QBs in this class is a gamble, so if I miss, I want it to be on the guy with the greatest upside.
YoloinOhio Posted April 2, 2017 Posted April 2, 2017 Well Guess what some other teams will feel comfortable like the Cards, Steelers, Giants and Saints. They will be happy to scoup him up in the 1st round and then he will lead there teams to playoff and Super Bowl wins. But we're probably doomed anyways because I got a gut feeling the Jets will grab him. So keep studing those draft boards for the wide outs and defense backs. Maybe you will wake up out of your slumber and get on board the Mahomes train. We will not be a consistent winer and make the playoffs consitantly until we get a QB. We need to start drafting some QB's . Nothing else matters. I repeat NOTHING else matters. You could have 7 Jerry Rices it would not matter, you could have 5 first round draft picks it would not matter. Unless you draft QB's you are not going any where. You and me and everyone else is just wasting there time. Prediction Mr. Mahomes will be the first QB picked in this draft and he will go on to win 2 Super Bowls and make the Hall of Fame. I don't hide I tell it like it is. the Bills are in the same position as the teams you mentioned. They have a starter and can draft another to develop.
jeffismagic Posted April 3, 2017 Posted April 3, 2017 Chargers say they need a young quarterback Posted by Michael David Smith on April 3, 2017, 5:26 AM EDT “I think we do have to get a young quarterback on campus. We have to start developing someone because we have two veteran quarterbacks,” Lynn said. “Both of them are long in the tooth. I think they have some good years left in them — don’t get me wrong. But, you have to start thinking about down the line too.” The Chargers have worked out Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes, Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs and Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer and may draft one of them as the heir apparent to Rivers. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/03/chargers-say-they-need-a-young-quarterback/ Wow. A newly hired coach that understands you have to have a QB and you can't just think about the next year...That name Lynn sounds familiar, didn't he want the Buffalo job and got passed over here?
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 3, 2017 Posted April 3, 2017 Chargers say they need a young quarterback Posted by Michael David Smith on April 3, 2017, 5:26 AM EDT “I think we do have to get a young quarterback on campus. We have to start developing someone because we have two veteran quarterbacks,” Lynn said. “Both of them are long in the tooth. I think they have some good years left in them — don’t get me wrong. But, you have to start thinking about down the line too.” The Chargers have worked out Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes, Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs and Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer and may draft one of them as the heir apparent to Rivers. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/03/chargers-say-they-need-a-young-quarterback/ Wow. A newly hired coach that understands you have to have a QB and you can't just think about the next year...That name Lynn sounds familiar, didn't he want the Buffalo job and got passed over here? You do realize that their youngest QB has more experience than all of our QBs combined, right?
jeffismagic Posted April 3, 2017 Posted April 3, 2017 You do realize that their youngest QB has more experience than all of our QBs combined, right? Some said Anthony Lynn was just a running backs, pound the ball coach. He probably got passed over here because he was on Rex's staff. But if the Chargers who already have Rivers invest in a 1st round QB while our new "aggressive" coach is focused on defensive scheme fits for his zone defense, it will again show the Pegulas to be clueless in hiring. Pegula's are 0-6 in hires so far with McDermott too soon to call. But the Tyrod Taylor extension is a huge red flag and passing on a top QB prospect will be another for me.
Roundybout Posted April 3, 2017 Posted April 3, 2017 Some said Anthony Lynn was just a running backs, pound the ball coach. He probably got passed over here because he was on Rex's staff. But if the Chargers who already have Rivers invest in a 1st round QB while our new "aggressive" coach is focused on defensive scheme fits for his zone defense, it will again show the Pegulas to be clueless in hiring. Pegula's are 0-6 in hires so far with McDermott too soon to call. But the Tyrod Taylor extension is a huge red flag and passing on a top QB prospect will be another for me. Going into the season with only Cardale on the roster would have been one for me.
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