What 1 position should the Bills focus on in FA?

[papazoid]

with TT

#1-OT

#2- WR

#3-QB

#4-CB (assuming no Gilmore)

#5-FS

 

without TT

#1- QB

#2-OT

#3- QB

#4- WR

#5-CB

#6- FS

[GunnerBill]

 

Roderick Johnson, Florida State, would be awesome at 44.

 

I have a 3rd round grade on him. Gets beaten inside too often is what you see on the tape. Don't see the aggressive initial punch I like from offensive tackles. He is very athletic and I think (given the Bills are going to be moving to more of a stretch zone scheme) he is a better fit for a zone blocking team. He is smart and hard to confuse I just think that he is sloppy in his technique. I expect he will go in the 2nd but that is a round too high for me.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

 

I have a 3rd round grade on him. Gets beaten inside too often is what you see on the tape. Don't see the aggressive initial punch I like from offensive tackles. He is very athletic and I think (given the Bills are going to be moving to more of a stretch zone scheme) he is a better fit for a zone blocking team. He is smart and hard to confuse I just think that he is sloppy in his technique. I expect he will go in the 2nd but that is a round too high for me.

Interesting. Having watched quite a few FSU games, I was just going based off of my "eye test." I think his shortcomings can be coached up, and he could be a quality starting RT or (at the very least) OG.

 

You like Garret Bolles, Antonio Garcia, or Taylor Moton better? I see those guys going in the 2nd-3rd round in many mocks.

[GunnerBill]

Interesting. Having watched quite a few FSU games, I was just going based off of my "eye test." I think his shortcomings can be coached up, and he could be a quality starting RT or (at the very least) OG.

 

You like Garret Bolles, Antonio Garcia, or Taylor Moton better? I see those guys going in the 2nd-3rd round in many mocks.

 

So Bolles is my favourite of those...... but he is still raw and he is 25 by the start of next season. I think that limits his value. I have Johnson ahead of Garcia and I see Morton eventually as a guard, his feet are not good enough to be a tackle for me.

 

It is just a really ropey offensive tackle class to my eyes.

 

EDIT: But I repeat there will be first round tackles.... and there will be guys I have 3rd and maybe even some with 4th round grades who go in the 2nd. Offensive line talent around the league is not good. The last couple of draft classes have helped but this looks like a down year at the position to me. Won't stop teams reaching though!

Edited February 8, 2017 by GunnerBill

[ALF]

If the Bill's had cap space by not keeping Taylor, there's RT Ricky Wagner

 

http://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/2016/12/29/14100832/baltimore-ravens-offseason-priority-1-rt-ricky-wagner

[KRT88]

for me in order:

 

1. RT

2. Safety

3. 2nd WR

 

CB position is all draft and UFA

TE position isn't super pressing but depth could help

QB is draft and development

LB's doesn't appear to be a great depth but based on last year's UFA find, you can find one with less than top priority.

DL depth early in the draft

 

TRADE DOWN - collect 2nd and 3rd round picks!!!!

[GunnerBill]

It's a good class for safeties and receivers. I think if you could trade down even a few spots in the first (and maybe again in the 2nd) and pick up an extra 2 and an extra 3 you'd have a great shot of getting 3 or 4 impact players and still filling those needs. If they could do that I'm not against taking 2 safeties and 2 receivers. It is also an extremely good tight end class to all extents and purposes (though I haven't got too far in my work on the position so far) so I think this would be a good year to be taking a tight end in the middle rounds - there should be value there.

 

Make tackle the #1 FA target.

[ice2145]

This team has an abundance of holes. As seen by the variety of opinions here. The obvious answer to me is QB. Without a top tier QB, is it extremely difficult to win a super bowl. Exception is an outrageous defense like the Broncos two year ago. Our defense is not even close to that now or in the foreseeable future. Hands down a QB but that's easier said then done. OBD doesn't exactly have a stellar track record when it comes to finding and or developing a QB. Refer to EJ, Fitz, Trent Edwards, JP, Rob Johnson, ...

[Kirby Jackson]

This team has an abundance of holes. As seen by the variety of opinions here. The obvious answer to me is QB. Without a top tier QB, is it extremely difficult to win a super bowl. Exception is an outrageous defense like the Broncos two year ago. Our defense is not even close to that now or in the foreseeable future. Hands down a QB but that's easier said then done. OBD doesn't exactly have a stellar track record when it comes to finding and or developing a QB. Refer to EJ, Fitz, Trent Edwards, JP, Rob Johnson, ...

The #1 QB available in FA is going to be your QB. I don't know how you upgrade from that in FA. If you move on from TT it is in the draft. You may sign a veteran guy too but that isn't to improve the QB position; it is so that you have a veteran on the roster.

[GunnerBill]

The #1 QB available in FA is going to be your QB. I don't know how you upgrade from that in FA. If you move on from TT it is in the draft. You may sign a veteran guy too but that isn't to improve the QB position; it is so that you have a veteran on the roster.

 

Unless Romo becomes a FA. I know he is only a short term option... but he is an upgrade. Not saying he would come here.... think it is less likely rather than more likely. But Tyrod wouldn't be the #1 QB FA if Romo is out there. Romo would set the market.

Edited February 10, 2017 by GunnerBill

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Unless Romo becomes a FA. I know he is only a short term option... but he is an upgrade. Not saying he would come here.... think it is less likely rather than more likely. But Tyrod wouldn't be the #1 QB FA if Romo is out there. Romo would set the market.

Romo is a total wildcard though. I agree that he's an upgrade (potentially) on the field. The problem is will he stay on the field? He's 37 and hasn't played a full season since 2014. He is looking at a 2 year deal somewhere if he hits the market. In addition, teams looking for a QB outside of Houston and maybe Denver & KC aren't close. That's his whole market. The market for TT could be Arizona, SF, Chicago, Cleveland, Jets, Denver, maybe KC, maybe JAX, and maybe even Houston (the last 3 unlikely). His age makes him a more viable option for someone like SF than Romo.

 

I would be really surprised if TT didn't sign the biggest QB contract this offseason if he hits the market (this assumes Cousins stays). I would think that the AAV will be in line with Romo's but with another year or 2 added. Romo may not even get a 2nd year guaranteed. Romo will be something like 2 years $38M with $22M guaranteed, with a $17M year one cap hit. TT is probably looking at 3 years and $45M with $30M guaranteed with $25M of that $30M hitting in the 1st 2 years.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[Hyphe23]

Unless they plan on drafting a WR in the first I think they need to address WR with quantity and quality in FA.

[GunnerBill]

Romo is a total wildcard though. I agree that he's an upgrade (potentially) on the field. The problem is will he stay on the field? He's 37 and hasn't played a full season since 2014. He is looking at a 2 year deal somewhere if he hits the market. In addition, teams looking for a QB outside of Houston and maybe Denver & KC aren't close. That's his whole market. The market for TT could be Arizona, SF, Chicago, Cleveland, Jets, Denver, maybe KC, maybe JAX, and maybe even Houston (the last 3 unlikely). His age makes him a more viable option for someone like SF than Romo.

 

I would be really surprised if TT didn't sign the biggest QB contract this offseason if he hits the market (this assumes Cousins stays). I would think that the AAV will be in line with Romo's but with another year or 2 added. Romo may not even get a 2nd year guaranteed. Romo will be something like 2 years $38M with $22M guaranteed, with a $17M year one cap hit. TT is probably looking at 3 years and $45M with $30M guaranteed with $25M of that $30 hitting in the 1st 2 years.

 

I think your number for Romo's first year is a little low I think he will be 2 years close to $20m guaranteed for the 1st.... think you are about right on Tyrod.

[ice2145]

Romo is a total wildcard though. I agree that he's an upgrade (potentially) on the field. The problem is will he stay on the field? He's 37 and hasn't played a full season since 2014. He is looking at a 2 year deal somewhere if he hits the market. In addition, teams looking for a QB outside of Houston and maybe Denver & KC aren't close. That's his whole market. The market for TT could be Arizona, SF, Chicago, Cleveland, Jets, Denver, maybe KC, maybe JAX, and maybe even Houston (the last 3 unlikely). His age makes him a more viable option for someone like SF than Romo.

 

I would be really surprised if TT didn't sign the biggest QB contract this offseason if he hits the market (this assumes Cousins stays). I would think that the AAV will be in line with Romo's but with another year or 2 added. Romo may not even get a 2nd year guaranteed. Romo will be something like 2 years $38M with $22M guaranteed, with a $17M year one cap hit. TT is probably looking at 3 years and $45M with $30M guaranteed with $25M of that $30M hitting in the 1st 2 years.

Good insight Kirby. Sounds like we don't have a lot of great options.

Edited February 10, 2017 by ice2145

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I think your number for Romo's first year is a little low I think he will be 2 years close to $20m guaranteed for the 1st.... think you are about right on Tyrod.

I agree, that is maybe a little low, teams aren't going to want to tie up much guaranteed in future years on Romo though was the point. He's a pretty big risk still. They may kick a little down the road but not a ton. If he can't stay healthy they don't want $10M plus in dead cap next year because of it. Teams will hedge a little I suspect (especially those good teams that are close). They can't afford to have a big chunk of dead cap space while there window is still open.

Good insight Kirby. Sounds like we don't have a lot of great options.

If we decide to move on from TT the best option is probably to draft the guy that you like the best and sign someone like McCown to be the veteran back-up / bridge guy if necessary.

[GunnerBill]

I agree, that is maybe a little low, teams aren't going to want to tie up much guaranteed in future years on Romo though was the point. He's a pretty big risk still. They may kick a little down the road but not a ton. If he can't stay healthy they don't want $10M plus in dead cap next year because of it. Teams will hedge a little I suspect (especially those good teams that are close). They can't afford to have a big chunk of dead cap space while there window is still open.

 

Yea agreed. $20m guaranteed year 1 with another $20m in year 2, $2-3m as a guaranteed bonus in year 2 escalating to $10m guaranteed if he starts a full 16 games in 2017. Something in that ballpark.

[GunnerBill]

This team will bottom out with a McCown or rookie QB next season and McDermott will be on the hot seat in 2018 with Whaley likely gone after next season.

 

I'll have a $10 charity bet with you Scott that Whaley is still the Bills GM in 2018. Loser donates to a charity of the victor's choice.

[aristocrat]

This team will bottom out with a McCown or rookie QB next season and McDermott will be on the hot seat in 2018 with Whaley likely gone after next season.

 

I think it depends on what we do in free agency. If mccown is our qb its number one pick time. But I think watson could give us the same production as tt. If we use the cap space to sign gilmore, brown and a safety and some depth guys our defense could get back to form. Still have the big run game to carry the offense and a healthy sammy to feed. I'm not high on trub, mahomes i go back and forth on thought. watson i think is going to be a good one. but no guarantee he's there.

[GunnerBill]

That depends on what they do with a Tyrod.

 

If they release him and replace him with a Hoyer or McCown I'll take that bet.

 

Even if they draft a guy 1st round? Or is the contingent on releasing Tyrod and not taking a Qb early?

[ALF]

It's a good class for safeties and receivers. I think if you could trade down even a few spots in the first (and maybe again in the 2nd) and pick up an extra 2 and an extra 3 you'd have a great shot of getting 3 or 4 impact players and still filling those needs. If they could do that I'm not against taking 2 safeties and 2 receivers. It is also an extremely good tight end class to all extents and purposes (though I haven't got too far in my work on the position so far) so I think this would be a good year to be taking a tight end in the middle rounds - there should be value there.

 

Make tackle the #1 FA target.

 

This looks like a very good plan , quick rebuild