PolishDave Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 I get it - you want to tweak the roster every year and say all the Bills needed was this or that and we would have made it to the wild card game. How many years do the Bills have to miss the playoffs before the expert roster tweakers realize that it is time to blow the thing up? 20? We're almost there. Tanking is pointless unless you are essentially guaranteed to get a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback. And you aren't guaranteed of that. What you are suggesting doing is betting everything on Red on a Roulette wheel for one spin. It's friggin dumb when you are betting the equivalent of all of your paychecks for the next 3-5 years. You would have a very good chance of being homeless for years. Enjoy your cardboard box house. You get better by evaluating talent better than the other teams do (both in the draft and free agency), by managing your player salaries better than other teams do and by employing the best coaches. None of those things require tanking. None.
Boatdrinks Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 (edited) I don't care about the WC game. The fact is that the #1 pick in hockey has a very high success rate at the next level. This is not true with college QBs drafted into the NFL. You just don't need the #1 pick or get any kind of a guarantee by having it. The biggest reason the Bills haven't found a QB in 20 years is they haven't drafted enough of them. The two times they actually drafted a QBin round one it was getting table scraps with JP Losman and possibly the worst year in the last ten with EJ Manuel( probably could have drafted in second round or lower). It hasn't been due to a lack of tanking. There are playoff caliber QBs they passed on when they had the chance. Cleveland has been tanking for around 15 years. Let's not excuse the Bills' poor drafting by saying they haven't tanked enough to get a guy. Edited February 1, 2017 by Boatdrinks
BillsFanInJax Posted February 1, 2017 Author Posted February 1, 2017 Tanking is not pointless. Move up the board. Collect the best "blue chip" talent out there on both sides of the ball for 3 or 4 drafts. What you are suggesting the Bills have already done for the last 17 years. How did that work out? Are the Bills any closer? No.
KOKBILLS Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 Tyrod back = reload. Tyrod gone = rebuild. That seems to be the popular theory... IMHO though...No one has properly explained exactly how you reload while taking on that TT contract, filling the roster that has 20 something UFA's opening up more than a couple needs, and only 6 Draft picks currently... So good luck with that TT is back reload...It's theory at best...But probably more like fantasy...
Boatdrinks Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 Tanking is not pointless. Move up the board. Collect the best "blue chip" talent out there on both sides of the ball for 3 or 4 drafts. What you are suggesting the Bills have already done for the last 17 years. How did that work out? Are the Bills any closer? No. No, it isn't . I am suggesting that they start drafting QBs, which they largely have ignored doing for the last 17 years. A move up for leftovers because they couldn't pull it off for the guy they really wanted ( Ben R) cost them a shot at Rodgers. A trade down for a QB that likely would have even went in the first round , out of sheer desperation. That been the extent of their realistic QB drafting. Nothing to do with tanking as they could have drafted numerous good QBs if they had made better decisions. It's a failure of the Bills FO thing, not tied to tanking in a given year.
PolishDave Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 Tanking is not pointless. Move up the board. Collect the best "blue chip" talent out there on both sides of the ball for 3 or 4 drafts. What you are suggesting the Bills have already done for the last 17 years. How did that work out? Are the Bills any closer? No. Tanking still doesn't help you identify talent better, coach better or manage your salary cap better than the other teams.
Boatdrinks Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 That seems to be the popular theory... IMHO though...No one has properly explained exactly how you reload while taking on that TT contract, filling the roster that has 20 something UFA's opening up more than a couple needs, and only 6 Draft picks currently... So good luck with that TT is back reload...It's theory at best...But probably more like fantasy... It's not crazy to think the Bills could have squeezed a couple more wins out of a better scheme on D and a WR corp not devastated by injury. I'm not vouching for that strategy, just saying it's possible the Bills brass goes that route.
BillsFanInJax Posted February 1, 2017 Author Posted February 1, 2017 Dallas went 4-12 in 2015 (the type of record a Tank brings) In 2016 they drafted EE with the fourth pick in the draft. That's a "no brainer". Then they picked up Jaylon Smith in round 2 (who did not play due to knee). Round 4 Dak.Prescott. 2016 record 13-3 - Playoffs. Meanwhile we are intrigued with Cardale Jones, and draft a guy who was hurt. 2016 record 7-9. Out for the 17th year in a row. Tank.
PolishDave Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 It's not crazy to think the Bills could have squeezed a couple more wins out of a better scheme on D and a WR corp not devastated by injury. I'm not vouching for that strategy, just saying it's possible the Bills brass goes that route. A healthy Sammy Watkins, Ragland, Lawson and having Dareus all year probably leads to playoffs this past season and Rex would still be coaching. Tyrod would already be locked in as QB for next few years. And our main concern would be how to beat the Patriots next year and make it back to the bowl. Seasons usually take unexpected turns somewhere.
KOKBILLS Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 It's not crazy to think the Bills could have squeezed a couple more wins out of a better scheme on D and a WR corp not devastated by injury. I'm not vouching for that strategy, just saying it's possible the Bills brass goes that route. That strategy would be assuming basically the same roster, and that roster staying healthy...And that's not going to happen (at least the same roster part)...And that roster had a couple gaping holes...Especially at S and WR... What I'm saying is...It's basically impossible based on the state of the team, the cap, UFA's, TT's contract if you pick it up, and the small amount of Draft picks...It's a pipe-dream...If they pick up Taylor's option and somehow figure out how to tweak this team under the cap and squeeze out 2 more wins it would be a minor miracle, and one hell of a major accomplishment...Not saying it's impossible...But the odds are really, really against it...
billsfan89 Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 The NFL isn't like the NBA, NHL, or MLB where you can sell off players for prospects and draft choices and short change your near future to rebuild for a long prosperous future. Very few players in the NFL command high draft picks. So it is not like the Bills can sell off a lot of players for a massive haul of draft picks. Even some of our "Most Tradable" players like Darby on cheap contracts will not get a very high return. So you either let a lot of talent go and not pursue free agents in the hopes of freeing up your cap in the next couple of years and getting a franchise QB with a high draft choice. I think when you have a solid QB in Tyrod, other talent on the roster, solid collection of draft choices, and some cap space to work with I think you are better trying to move upwards as opposed to scrapping the general direction of the team.
Boatdrinks Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 Dallas went 4-12 in 2015 (the type of record a Tank brings) In 2016 they drafted EE with the fourth pick in the draft. That's a "no brainer". Then they picked up Jaylon Smith in round 2 (who did not play due to knee). Round 4 Dak.Prescott. 2016 record 13-3 - Playoffs. Meanwhile we are intrigued with Cardale Jones, and draft a guy who was hurt. 2016 record 7-9. Out for the 17th year in a row. Tank. Meanwhile , the 2015 Bills went 8-8. Starting QB Taylor missed several games, all losses with EJ Manuel under center. The defense also cost them in a few losses. They had a shot to make the playoffs if they had managed just a few more plays here and there. The Bills were known to be high on Dak Prescott as a middle round prospect. GM Whaley gave up his fourth round pick in a questionable move up to take Reggie Ragland in the second round. He then spent his third round pick on Adolphus Washington, a rotational DT. Either one of those picks could have been used for Dak Prescott , who plays a much more important position. No tank necessary. Let the draft come to you instead of giving away picks in moveups for non - quarterbacks. The Tank is needless and just a magic bullet theory that overlooks ( and excuses) the bad drafting by the Bills hierarchy.
re enlightener Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 (edited) First- if we do rebuild, key guys like dareus, clay, glenn, hughes, darby, ragland lawson, and watkins will all be young enough in 2-3 years when we are ready to make a run again. But we really just need to see this off season how the first 2 or 3 moves play out and go from there.... will gilmore take a reasonable offer? will tyrod stay? will williams stay? will williams stay (23) will zach or lorax stay? will woods stay? will we draft a qb? will the new coach be great? if the first 2 or 3 of these things dont work out...might as well start a rebuild as they already have forced our hand ie gilmore leaves, tyrod leaves, williams retires- REBUILD, but If they go well for the Bills I say reload for a run now, hand the new coach the keys to the ferrari and see what he does with it. Edited February 1, 2017 by re enlightener
FireChan Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 (edited) PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. Let's pretend it's Jan 2016. We look at our upcoming 2016-2017 schedule against 2015's records. 2015 record 2016 results Pats (12-4): W, L Jets (10-6): L, W Miami (6-10): L, L Cinci (12-4) W Pitt (10-6) L Balt (5-11) L Cleve (3-13) W Cards (13-3) W Sea (10-6) L LA (7-9) W SF (5-11) W Jags (5-11) W Raiders (7-9) L We beat previous 13-3, 12-4 (Brady-less), 12-4, and 10-6 teams. We lost to previous 7-9, 5-11, and 6-10 (twice) teams. There's no way to accurately predict any of this from the previous year. Too many variables. So you look at the 2017 schedule and what? You know that OAK is going to be good again? That DEN isn't just a middling 9-7 team without a QB? That the LA Chargers are going to do ANYTHING? That anyone in the NFC South isn't a one-year fluke (CAR, ATL). Btw, ATL pulled a NE by beating down a weak division (5-1 in the NFC S) to a first rd bye and home field. So some of those teams will be good next year, some will be bad, and we'll lose to around 9 of them. Sounds about right. Tanking is not pointless. Move up the board. Collect the best "blue chip" talent out there on both sides of the ball for 3 or 4 drafts. What you are suggesting the Bills have already done for the last 17 years. How did that work out? Are the Bills any closer? No. We haven't tanked at all. We've had 1 year in the last 17 with a top 3 pick. That's bad management. Folks wonder why the Bills don't have a QB? This team systematically puts themselves in a position to miss out year after year. 2016 was the first year I can remember where we didn't win a meaningless end of the year game that only hurt our draft position. Edited February 1, 2017 by FireChan
SoulMan Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 I think we will be amazed at the difference good coaching would make. We are 4 - 5 good moves from respectability. Not the Chris Hogan type moves, but good moves. Sound coaching will end the drought.
Greybeard Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. Let's pretend it's Jan 2016. We look at our upcoming 2016-2017 schedule against 2015's records. 2015 record 2016 results Pats (12-4): W, L Jets (10-6): L, W Miami (6-10): L, L Cinci (12-4) W Pitt (10-6) L Balt (5-11) L Cleve (3-13) W Cards (13-3) W Sea (10-6) L LA (7-9) W SF (5-11) W Jags (5-11) W Raiders (7-9) L We beat previous 13-3, 12-4 (Brady-less), 12-4, and 10-6 teams. We lost to previous 7-9, 5-11, and 6-10 (twice) teams. There's no way to accurately predict any of this from the previous year. Too many variables. So you look at the 2017 schedule and what? You know that OAK is going to be good again? That DEN isn't just a middling 9-7 team without a QB? That the LA Chargers are going to do ANYTHING? That anyone in the NFC South isn't a one-year fluke (CAR, ATL). Btw, ATL pulled a NE by beating down a weak division (5-1 in the NFC S) to a first rd bye and home field. Congrats on the work you did. Nice presentation. I had the Bills with 5 wins going into the season, so they really outperformed my expectations.
FireChan Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. Let's pretend it's Jan 2016. We look at our upcoming 2016-2017 schedule against 2015's records. 2015 record 2016 results Pats (12-4): W, L Jets (10-6): L, W Miami (6-10): L, L Cinci (12-4) W Pitt (10-6) L Balt (5-11) L Cleve (3-13) W Cards (13-3) W Sea (10-6) L LA (7-9) W SF (5-11) W Jags (5-11) W Raiders (7-9) L We beat previous 13-3, 12-4 (Brady-less), 12-4, and 10-6 teams. We lost to previous 7-9, 5-11, and 6-10 (twice) teams. There's no way to accurately predict any of this from the previous year. Too many variables. So you look at the 2017 schedule and what? You know that OAK is going to be good again? That DEN isn't just a middling 9-7 team without a QB? That the LA Chargers are going to do ANYTHING? That anyone in the NFC South isn't a one-year fluke (CAR, ATL). Btw, ATL pulled a NE by beating down a weak division (5-1 in the NFC S) to a first rd bye and home field. We lost to the Jets twice. We only beat 2 good 2015 teams in the Cards and Bungles.
chris heff Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 The NFL isn't like the NBA, NHL, or MLB where you can sell off players for prospects and draft choices and short change your near future to rebuild for a long prosperous future. Very few players in the NFL command high draft picks. So it is not like the Bills can sell off a lot of players for a massive haul of draft picks. Even some of our "Most Tradable" players like Darby on cheap contracts will not get a very high return. So you either let a lot of talent go and not pursue free agents in the hopes of freeing up your cap in the next couple of years and getting a franchise QB with a high draft choice. I think when you have a solid QB in Tyrod, other talent on the roster, solid collection of draft choices, and some cap space to work with I think you are better trying to move upwards as opposed to scrapping the general direction of the team. I don't get why people don't understand this, you are absolutely right.
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