Luxy312 Posted January 31, 2017 Posted January 31, 2017 Thanks for the Peterman/Webb breakdown... Peterman is a bit of a distraction for me.. He actually looks like he could be decent... Still can't agree with taking ANY of these kids At 10... At 10 I'd like to see immediate impact player... Preferrably on offense... -Ever heard of that OJ Howard kid? I want to see the Bills draft Howard about as much as I wanted to see them take Eric Ebron the year they drafted Watkins. Not drawing comparisons between the two, of course, but simply the fact that Ebron was the definitive TE that year like Howard is this year. None the less, Howard has gotten by in college with his size and athleticism. He's got a LOT of work to do, and the Bills already have Clay anyway for 3 more years. It would create $13.5 million in dead money to drop him or trade him. Howard is not the pick you seek (in my best Yoda voice).
GunnerBill Posted January 31, 2017 Author Posted January 31, 2017 I assume most QB's with 1st round grades either go 1 or 2 or right after the couple can't miss non-QB prospects. Curious where you had EJ graded out at? This is only my 4th year attempting to evaluate and grade so I started the year after EJ. In 2014 I had 3 Quarterbacks with first round grades. The highest was Bortles who I had a mid to high first round grade on. He was the 11th best player on my big board that year and went #3. 2015 I had Mariota and Winston graded in my "elite" prospect range and they were the 2nd and 3rd players on my big board and went 1 and 2. 2016 I had only two QBs with first round grades. The highest was Goff who was a few marks behind where I have Watson this year and was the 13th best player on my big board and went 1st Wentz was 18th on my big board and went 2nd. So Quarterbacks do get bumped up higher than their grade (didn't need me to tell you that right?) and above superior prospects at other positions.
#34fan Posted January 31, 2017 Posted January 31, 2017 (edited) I want to see the Bills draft Howard about as much as I wanted to see them take Eric Ebron the year they drafted Watkins. Not drawing comparisons between the two, of course, but simply the fact that Ebron was the definitive TE that year like Howard is this year. None the less, Howard has gotten by in college with his size and athleticism. He's got a LOT of work to do, and the Bills already have Clay anyway for 3 more years. It would create $13.5 million in dead money to drop him or trade him. Howard is not the pick you seek (in my best Yoda voice). Not the pick you seek, howard is... (in a better Yoda voice) Then who, in your opinion, is? So what if Clay is here? -Too many offensive weapons didn't seem to hurt the falcons this year... Edited January 31, 2017 by #34fan
Maury Ballstein Posted January 31, 2017 Posted January 31, 2017 Not the pick you seek, howard is... (in a better Yoda voice) Then who, in your opinion, is? So what if Clay is here? -Too many offensive weapons didn't seem to hurt the falcons this year... Except the no name tight ends. Bad choice of teams dude Toilolo in the house.
#34fan Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 Except the no name tight ends. Bad choice of teams dude Who the F--- needs tight ends when you got Mo Sanu and Julio Jones?... Spread out their season and a whole bunch of weapons saw action..... Jake Tamme, Justin Hardy, your guy Toilolo... Plus the embarrassment of riches they have at RB with Freeman and Coleman! Why does Sammy and Charles Clay have to be our only weapons? Why do you have such a problem with us striking it rich?
Maury Ballstein Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 Who the F--- needs tight ends when you got Mo Sanu and Julio Jones?... Spread out their season and a whole bunch of weapons saw action..... Jake Tamme, Justin Hardy, your guy Toilolo... Plus the embarrassment of riches they have at RB with Freeman and Coleman! Why does Sammy and Charles Clay have to be our only weapons? Why do you have such a problem with us striking it rich? Just bustin your balls. You pick a team w meh tight ends as a reason to have Clay and Howard. I like Howard for sure but we need a qb first, unless Cardale is ready to ball out.
biggerdaddynj Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 Thank you for the analysis. This just reinforces my belief that we should keep TT and draft a WR and CB in rounds 1 and 2. Draft a qb next year. Agree 100% (as if I matter!) and I think the BPA will be a WR or CB or S--all positions of need. And great work from the OP! Much appreciated. A+
Cripple Creek Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 Draft Grade Good read, thank you. Does your draft grade take into account that QBs will in many cases go earlier than expected based on the importance of the position?
GunnerBill Posted February 1, 2017 Author Posted February 1, 2017 Good read, thank you. Does your draft grade take into account that QBs will in many cases go earlier than expected based on the importance of the position? No. As I explained in my post just above my grade is based on their play. It is not intended to be a comment on where they stand on a big board or are likely to go in a mock or indeed the real thing. The grades do factor in positional importance to an extent... but they don't factor in likely draft position.
JohnC Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 No. As I explained in my post just above my grade is based on their play. It is not intended to be a comment on where they stand on a big board or are likely to go in a mock or indeed the real thing. The grades do factor in positional importance to an extent... but they don't factor in likely draft position. I would be interested to know what your draft grade was on Derek Carr? And I want to point out to the masses who are enamored with defense backs that Prescott had a second round rating from master GunnerBill yet he was able to seamlessly handle an offense as a rookie. I'm not arguing that rookie qbs should be immediate starters but I'm arguing that they should be put on the roster sooner rather than later. The wait until next year mantra has turned into wait until next generation when we can find a more appealing candidate. The fantasy of the future has turned into the futility of the present. It never freaking ends.
GunnerBill Posted February 1, 2017 Author Posted February 1, 2017 I had Carr right on the 1st/2nd borderline. That was a good overall class 2014 and I had 28 1st round grades - Carr was the 28th. I had a bottom 2nd round grade on Prescott. I am hardly a master.... there are people on here better at this than me. I just wanted to put my full explanation out this year particularly because I think there is a wide varience of view on the prospects in this class.
JohnC Posted February 1, 2017 Posted February 1, 2017 I had Carr right on the 1st/2nd borderline. That was a good overall class 2014 and I had 28 1st round grades - Carr was the 28th. I had a bottom 2nd round grade on Prescott. I am hardly a master.... there are people on here better at this than me. I just wanted to put my full explanation out this year particularly because I think there is a wide varience of view on the prospects in this class. The not so oblique point I wanted to make is that a qb can have a low first round or high second round grade and make a tremendous impact on a team. Khalil Mack was a top of the board ranked player in his draft year and was selected near the top of the draft by the Raiders. If you gave the Raiders a choice of keeping either Mack or Carr the Raiders without hesitation choose Carr. The Houston Texans selected Clowny with the first pick of his draft year. After a few injured years he finally has turned into a dynamic defensive player. Without any doubt the Texans would gladly give him up for a good (not great) qb. I'm not trying to blow smoke up your wazoo but I trust your measured judgments on evaluating qb prospects than the Bills scouting staff. Over the years they have demonstrated by their selections and bypassing prospects that they don't have a grasp on how to evaluate the qb position. Just think, Country Nix traded up in the third round to draft a track receiver who predictably couldn't cut it in the pros bypassing Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins. Both of these players would have had profound effects on this lackluster organization.
sjjr Posted February 2, 2017 Posted February 2, 2017 Thanks. I agree Watson is clearly ahead, although I am probably higher on Trubisky than I was at the start of my video evaluations. I don't see Mahomes / Fitz at all.... Mahomes has a cannon Fitz didn't even have a pea shooter.... interested to know what the comparison is you see? Gunslinger mentality maybe? I've not watched anything at all of Evans. I will at some point but probably not in this depth. Trubisky is interesting but he could be a system QB and might have the same adjustment problems that Goff has had. Definitely careful with the ball and accurate. Mahomes seems to be a gunslinger like Fitz in a spread system with a similar skill-set. You're right he probably has more tools. Still he will need time to develop and become more consistent. Evans might be interesting as a less talented Cam Newton type project. Let me know what you think. Don't know if Watson is MJ like his coach said but he is very poised, talented and plays his best when the lights are bright. He took his program to the next level and is a winner. The way he responded to the beating he took against in the 1st half against Alabama last month showed what he's made of. Whatever team he goes to will be better because he's there.
Coach Tuesday Posted February 2, 2017 Posted February 2, 2017 The not so oblique point I wanted to make is that a qb can have a low first round or high second round grade and make a tremendous impact on a team. Khalil Mack was a top of the board ranked player in his draft year and was selected near the top of the draft by the Raiders. If you gave the Raiders a choice of keeping either Mack or Carr the Raiders without hesitation choose Carr. The Houston Texans selected Clowny with the first pick of his draft year. After a few injured years he finally has turned into a dynamic defensive player. Without any doubt the Texans would gladly give him up for a good (not great) qb. I'm not trying to blow smoke up your wazoo but I trust your measured judgments on evaluating qb prospects than the Bills scouting staff. Over the years they have demonstrated by their selections and bypassing prospects that they don't have a grasp on how to evaluate the qb position. Just think, Country Nix traded up in the third round to draft a track receiver who predictably couldn't cut it in the pros bypassing Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins. Both of these players would have had profound effects on this lackluster organization. Buddy Nix was country dumb.
BuffaloRebound Posted February 3, 2017 Posted February 3, 2017 The not so oblique point I wanted to make is that a qb can have a low first round or high second round grade and make a tremendous impact on a team. Khalil Mack was a top of the board ranked player in his draft year and was selected near the top of the draft by the Raiders. If you gave the Raiders a choice of keeping either Mack or Carr the Raiders without hesitation choose Carr. The Houston Texans selected Clowny with the first pick of his draft year. After a few injured years he finally has turned into a dynamic defensive player. Without any doubt the Texans would gladly give him up for a good (not great) qb. I'm not trying to blow smoke up your wazoo but I trust your measured judgments on evaluating qb prospects than the Bills scouting staff. Over the years they have demonstrated by their selections and bypassing prospects that they don't have a grasp on how to evaluate the qb position. Just think, Country Nix traded up in the third round to draft a track receiver who predictably couldn't cut it in the pros bypassing Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins. Both of these players would have had profound effects on this lackluster organization. Excellent post. QB's probably need to be ranked differently than everyone else. The reward is far greater than any other position.
PaattMaann Posted February 3, 2017 Posted February 3, 2017 Gunner, great work...obvious you put in a lot of time and thank you! I have watched every 2016 game from both Mahomes and Watson (the only two QBs I would even want the Bills to draft)...and have slightly differing opinions than some things you mentioned. Mahomes - you nail a lot of his negatives, "slingy"/atrocious footwork, but you say he does NOT throw guys open but instead waits for them to be open like Tyrod? I couldn't disagree more here. In all of those games mentioned there are more than a handful of passes where he does exactly that and throws a dart to a spot that his WR has to get to...thats throwing guys open... Also, I thought he did a great job keeping his eyes downfield when the pocket collapsed. Granted, he was scrambling legit like 70% of the time because his line was puke, so I'm sure sometimes he was in survival mode, but there are also plenty of times he makes incredible plays because he is keeping his eyes downfield. Interesting you did not watch the WVU game, which was not quite a train wreck for him, but it was not a good showing against a pretty GREAT D...he did make some great decisions/throws/plays, but it was a really rough start to that game for him which worries me. Watson - he is a gamer. he makes some great plays. I don't see him throwing guys open like you did, at least not as the rule (maybe the exception). I see a lot of "lazy balls" that get picked all day in the NFL. He doesn't have a weak arm, it seems like he just makes some bad decisions/throws where he lobs the ball up in the air to his WR (Mike Williams a lot of the time) and lets him attempt to make a play...and not in a good way where he places it only so his WR can get it. I could see him continuing this in the NFL and throw 20+ picks. I am torn on Watson...I like his leadership, work ethic, personality, decision making (spread offense so it should be good)...but I cannot get over a lot of these balls that just hang in the air and look to be sure INTs....thoughts?
GunnerBill Posted February 3, 2017 Author Posted February 3, 2017 What I see is Watson letting balls go before his guys are out of their break. I don't see that when I watch Mahomes. Watson's arm isn't the strongest... he is certainly behind Mahomes who has an absolute cannon and Kizer who has plenty of arm too in that regard. But I think he has enough arm and I'm not sure I see the floaters that you do. The only guy here who I saw floaty balls from is Trubisky.... with the exception of the odd Mahomes ball that comes out sideways.... I absolutely think Watson will throw picks early in the NFL because he doesn't play scared and will always give his guy a chance to go and make a play. Winston has posted 33 picks in his first two years and I see Watson as likely to be in a similar range. But he will throw for plenty of yards and plenty of touchdowns too. If he copes with the more complicated playbook he is going to have to learn at the NFL level (and that is true of all these 5 guys.... probably a little less so Kizer) then he will be a franchise level Quarterback (not necessarily elite but an undisputed starter for a long time).
BaaadThingsMan Posted February 3, 2017 Posted February 3, 2017 Bills are taking Trubisky #1 overall...https://twitter.com/AFCEastBros/status/825916850735308800
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