Teddy Bridgewater expected to miss all of 2017 season

[BringBackOrton]

Bortles would be around average. He had 22 turnovers and a 3-13 record. That's why the stat is irrelevant. It isn't telling you anything. Bortles threw a ton because the offense, led by him, was trash.

 

We had the best running game in football by a mile. 3 of the top 4 yards per carry teams were the Bills, Cowboys and Titans. Each of those teams has an extremely mobile QB. You can't just separate things out. They don't work independently of one another. It's a combination of a variety of factors. That's the point. The dominant Bills running game offers less opportunities to throw TDs than someone like Bortles. The situation dictates how you play. McCoy had 68 yards, 90 yards, and 10 yards (on 5 carries) in the 3 games he played without TT. The Bills lost to a team that went to the playoffs and 2 teams that finished 5-11. How good was that running game without TT under center?

One outlier doesn't invalidate a stat.

 

Especially when you're judging that outlier by W-L and excluding every other factor that contributes to W-L. Ridiculous.

 

I remember when Lesean McCoy won RB of the year without TT as his QB. Unless he was working voodoo as a glorified practice dummy in Baltimore, I'm sure it didn't have much to do with him.

Edited July 15, 2017 by jmc12290

[Kirby Jackson]

One outlier doesn't invalidate a stat.

 

Especially when you're judging that outlier by W-L and excluding every other factor that contributes to W-L. Ridiculous.

 

I remember when Lesean McCoy won RB of the year without TT as his QB. Unless he was working voodoo as a glorified practice dummy in Baltimore, I'm sure it didn't have much to do with him.

I think McCoy is GREAT. He's a top 3 back without question. The running game works so well right now for a lot of reasons. That's the point. If you put McCoy behind the Giants OL he isn't the same player. They aren't separate parts. They are pieces to a puzzle. They all work together. Also, what is "Running back of the year?" That's not a real thing.

 

In terms of Bortles, I sarted by bringing up his 78.8 rating, 49.2 QBR, and 22 turnovers IN ADDITION to his record. You are the one that is trying to add validity to that stat. I simply added perspective, Bortles was awful but that stat would say he was decent. It doesn't tell the story for the same reason as above. There are a lot of reasons that Bortles threw 23 TDs and it starts with their terrible running game. He had the same number of TDs as Stafford. That's how they had to score. It's a 180 from the Bills.

 

Flacco threw the ball 236 times more than Tyrod last year and had less TDs. 20 TDs passing on 672 attempts isn't as good to me as Kaepernick's 16 TDs in 331 attempts. Efficiency is infinitely more important than gross numbers.

Edited July 15, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[HappyDays]

The situation dictates how you play. McCoy had 68 yards, 90 yards, and 10 yards (on 5 carries) in the 3 games he played without TT. The Bills lost to a team that went to the playoffs and 2 teams that finished 5-11. How good was that running game without TT under center?

If you remove Tyrod's rushing attempts and yards entirely, our overall rush YPA in 2015 was 4.6 and in 2016 was 5.2.

 

So our rush YPA when Tyrod is in the game, not including his attempts, is an average of 4.9.

 

In the Bengals game if you take away EJ's rushes our YPA was 4.0. For the Jags it was 3.9 and the Jets it was 2.4 (took away Cardale's and EJ's).

 

So our rush YPA when Tyrod is NOT in the game, taking away all QB rushing attempts, is an average of 3.4.

 

For comparison, 4.9 YPA would be #1 in 2015 and #2 in 2016 (#1 was also us so...).

While 3.4 YPA would have you #32 in 2015 and #30 in 2016.

 

Again, I took away all QB rush yards. The rest of the rushing offense goes from best in the league to worst in the league when Tyrod is off the field. And obviously if you included Tyrod's attempts the difference would get even bigger.

 

It is a small sample size but there's clearly a trend here. The rushing offense simply clicks betters when he's on the field and it's not exactly hard to see why.

[MiltonWaddams]

Came on here expecting to read some Bridgewater news. I guess our threads now digress to food (Maclin) or Tyrod. Good to know.

[JerseyBills]

Anyone remember I think Shefter or Polian talking about the pre draft interview process and said Teddy and EJ Manuel were two of the nicest, genuine QB''s he talked to in the last 10 years or something like that?

 

Such a Shame. One of the very few non Bill qbs I rooted for.

Edited July 15, 2017 by JerseyBills

[BringBackOrton]

I think McCoy is GREAT. He's a top 3 back without question. The running game works so well right now for a lot of reasons. That's the point. If you put McCoy behind the Giants OL he isn't the same player. They aren't separate parts. They are pieces to a puzzle. They all work together. Also, what is "Running back of the year?" That's not a real thing.

 

In terms of Bortles, I sarted by bringing up his 78.8 rating, 49.2 QBR, and 22 turnovers IN ADDITION to his record. You are the one that is trying to add validity to that stat. I simply added perspective, Bortles was awful but that stat would say he was decent. It doesn't tell the story for the same reason as above. There are a lot of reasons that Bortles threw 23 TDs and it starts with their terrible running game. He had the same number of TDs as Stafford. That's how they had to score. It's a 180 from the Bills.

 

Flacco threw the ball 236 times more than Tyrod last year and had less TDs. 20 TDs passing on 672 attempts isn't as good to me as Kaepernick's 16 TDs in 331 attempts. Efficiency is infinitely more important than gross numbers.

Tyrod was 18th in passing TD "efficiency." AKA right around his total. Below average.

 

I know your schtick is the "that's not a real thing," game, but it makes you look childish and petty. http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/article-1/LeSean-McCoy-Wins-FedEx-Ground-Award/023f2d21-dfc2-4b88-a061-bca0757928bd

 

 

Can't wait to see you play the semantics game and tell me the "Ground Player of the Year" doesn't mean just running backs, it also includes fullbacks!

 

Enjoy your "L."

Edited July 15, 2017 by jmc12290

[Kirby Jackson]

Tyrod was 18th in passing TD "efficiency." AKA right around his total. Below average.

 

I know your schtick is the "that's not a real thing," game, but it makes you look childish and petty. http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/article-1/LeSean-McCoy-Wins-FedEx-Ground-Award/023f2d21-dfc2-4b88-a061-bca0757928bd

 

 

Can't wait to see you play the semantics game and tell me the "Ground Player of the Year" doesn't mean just running backs, it also includes fullbacks!

 

Enjoy your "L."

I stand corrected. That's a huge honor, an award, voted on by the fans, that I didn't even know existed. He's a great back and that's not a surprise. If you want to dance in the end zone because you knew that the "Fed Ex Ground Player of the Year" was a thing go for it.

 

My point remains and Happy Days research absolutely validates it. That's not childish and petty. It is facts. Things don't happen in silos. They are not independent of one another especially in the NFL. You can't take a top 10 DVOA offense in back-to-back years and exclude the QB from the equation. You can't exclude the coaches, backs, OL or pass catchers either. Not everyone has the same amount of impact though. By the very nature of the position the QB will ALWAYS be the most important player in offense. I don't think anyone will debate that.

 

The Bills have gotten decent QB play. That's all that I've ever said. I'd put Tyrod above Alex Smith & Tannehill and just below Flacco and Dalton. That's not saying that you can't do better but you can absolutely do worse (and the Bills have for almost 20 years).

[BringBackOrton]

I stand corrected. That's a huge honor, an award, voted on by the fans, that I didn't even know existed. He's a great back and that's not a surprise. If you want to dance in the end zone because you knew that the "Fed Ex Ground Player of the Year" was a thing go for it.

 

My point remains and Happy Days research absolutely validates it. That's not childish and petty. It is facts. Things don't happen in silos. They are not independent of one another especially in the NFL. You can't take a top 10 DVOA offense in back-to-back years and exclude the QB from the equation. You can't exclude the coaches, backs, OL or pass catchers either. Not everyone has the same amount of impact though. By the very nature of the position the QB will ALWAYS be the most important player in offense. I don't think anyone will debate that.

 

The Bills have gotten decent QB play. That's all that I've ever said. I'd put Tyrod above Alex Smith & Tannehill and just below Flacco and Dalton. That's not saying that you can't do better but you can absolutely do worse (and the Bills have for almost 20 years).

I'm actually dancing in the end zone because you went the snarky and childish, "I'm so well-read" route and it revealed your schtick for what it was.

 

The QB is the most important player on the O. I never denied this. But if you stack every player independently against their contemporaries, some of them end up 4th in production and some of them end up 19th. Those are just the facts.

Edited July 15, 2017 by jmc12290

[MPT]

 

not really. tyrod and him throw about the same yards but teddy threw less tds and more pick plus has half the rushing yards. teddy isn't even tyrod.

Not sure why, but this made me chuckle.

[Kirby Jackson]

I'm actually dancing in the end zone because you went the snarky and childish, "I'm so well-read" route and it revealed your schtick for what it was.

 

The QB is the most important player on the O. I never denied this. But if you stack every player independently against their contemporaries, some of them end up 4th in production and some of them end up 19th. Those are just the facts.

If you use total TDs. If you use a more all-inclusive stat like QBR that same guy is 9th. Any stat that isn't normalized doesn't work for comparison. Flacco threw the ball 236 times more than Tyrod. Shouldn't he throw for more TDs? Of course he should.

 

I wasn't being snarky or petty for any other reason that will ever pass the sniff test around here. There are too many educated posters to think that "19th in TDs" matters. The first thing that anyone will say is "that's because they were able to run the ball so well." That doesn't mean Bortles performed better. The offense, led by Taylor, has been top 10 DVOA the last 2 years. You can't just apply some nebulous stat and act like it's telling a story.

 

It's the same way with passing yards, rushing yards, INTs, etc.. Gross stats don't tell a story. That's why teams don't care about them. What you do each attempt is a much more telling story (and still not perfect because things aren't independent of one another). If a guy throws 672 times he should have more yards, TDs and INTs than the guy that throws it 436 times. Julian Edelman was targeted 195 times last year. He should have a lot of catches. I don't need those guys ranked to tell me that's common sense. By the same token the team that runs it the most in the league should be near the top of the league in yardage. Take basketball for an example, if Steph Curry is 9 for 28 and scores 26 points in a game that's not better than Lillard going 8 for 11 for 24 points. There are far too many advanced stats and information out there that do a better job of telling a story than to try to pass through gross passing yards, TDs, rushing yards, INTs, receptions, etc...as an indicator of "production." The irony is 19th is about where I'd have Tyrod ranked (I may have him a spot or 2 lower). The point wasn't that ranking is out of whack. The point was that stat is useless.

 

Back to Bridgewater (another guy I would have ranked around 19 when healthy)....

Edited July 15, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[BringBackOrton]

If you use total TDs. If you use a more all-inclusive stat like QBR that same guy is 9th. Any stat that isn't normalized doesn't work for comparison. Flacco threw the ball 236 times more than Tyrod. Shouldn't he throw for more TDs? Of course he should.

 

I wasn't being snarky or petty for any other reason that will ever pass the sniff test around here. There are too many educated posters to think that "19th in TDs" matters. The first thing that anyone will say is "that's because they were able to run the ball so well." That doesn't mean Bortles performed better. The offense, led by Taylor, has been top 10 DVOA the last 2 years. You can't just apply some nebulous stat and act like it's telling a story.

 

It's the same way with passing yards, rushing yards, INTs, etc.. Gross stats don't tell a story. That's why teams don't care about them. What you do each attempt is a much more telling story (and still not perfect because things aren't independent of one another). If a guy throws 672 times he should have more yards, TDs and INTs than the guy that throws it 436 times. Julian Edelman was targeted 195 times last year. He should have a lot of catches. I don't need those guys ranked to tell me that's common sense. By the same token the team that runs it the most in the league should be near the top of the league in yardage. Take basketball for an example, if Steph Curry is 9 for 28 and scores 26 points in a game that's not better than Lillard going 8 for 11 for 24 points. There are far too many advanced stats and information out there that do a better job of telling a story than to try to pass through gross passing yards, TDs, rushing yards, INTs, receptions, etc...as an indicator of "production." The irony is 19th is about where I'd have Tyrod ranked (I may have him a spot or 2 lower). The point wasn't that ranking is out of whack. The point was that stat is useless.

Tyrod is 18th in TD%. That accounts for attempts and efficiency. I understand you don't like the facts, but it doesn't change them.

 

And if you'd like to see a good comparison, McCoy/Gillislee were the most efficient duo in terms of TD per attempt in the NFL, while TT lived at 18th. Another feather in Tyrod's cap, I suppose, instead of credit to those guys.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Tyrod is 18th in TD%. That accounts for attempts and efficiency. I understand you don't like the facts, but it doesn't change them.

 

And if you'd like to see a good comparison, McCoy/Gillislee were the most efficient duo in terms of TD per attempt in the NFL, while TT lived at 18th. Another feather in Tyrod's cap, I suppose, instead of credit to those guys.

Right, they ran those attempts, not Tyrod. But if you think Tyrod doesn't play a part in that efficiency you are fooling yourself. McCoy had great numbers against 8 in the box, The fact that 1 of those 8 was almost always required to spy the QB played a major part in his success against those fronts. That doesn't take away from McCoy's success, it just provides context. Similarly, defenses are hesitant to attack us aggressively due to a fear of the QB keeping the ball and gashing them for a big gain, which buys time before contact for all runners.

[BringBackOrton]

Right, they ran those attempts, not Tyrod. But if you think Tyrod doesn't play a part in that efficiency you are fooling yourself. McCoy had great numbers against 8 in the box, The fact that 1 of those 8 was almost always required to spy the QB played a major part in his success against those fronts. That doesn't take away from McCoy's success, it just provides context. Similarly, defenses are hesitant to attack us aggressively due to a fear of the QB keeping the ball and gashing them for a big gain, which buys time before contact for all runners.

All QB's play a part in their run game. I've yet to see a single poster say "Thanks to Tom Brady, Legarrette Blount had one of the best years of his career," in the same vein that TT gets praised for a HoF RB doing HoF RB things.

 

I'd love someone to argue that TT helps his offense and run game more than Brady does.

Edited July 15, 2017 by jmc12290

[BuffaloHokie13]

All QB's play a part in their run game. I've yet to see a single poster say "Thanks to Tom Brady, Legarrette Blount had one of the best years of his career," in the same vein that TT gets praised for a HoF RB doing HoF RB things.

 

I'd love someone to argue that TT helps his offense and run game more than Brady does.

Literally nobody brought up Tom Brady but you here. Are you secretly feeling like Tyrod is in Brady's realm when it comes to their effects on a team's rushing efficiency?

 

Also, every skill player on the Patriots that has success gets credited to Tom Brady. Every single one.

Edited July 15, 2017 by BuffaloHokie13

[Kirby Jackson]

Tyrod is 18th in TD%. That accounts for attempts and efficiency. I understand you don't like the facts, but it doesn't change them.

 

And if you'd like to see a good comparison, McCoy/Gillislee were the most efficient duo in terms of TD per attempt in the NFL, while TT lived at 18th. Another feather in Tyrod's cap, I suppose, instead of credit to those guys.

I like facts as much as anyone on this board. Of all of the things that have been said about me on here "not liking facts" is probably the least accurate statement.

 

The running game on a YPC basis was one of the best ever. Happy Days illustrated earlier how much more effective they were with Taylor under center. It's the sum of the parts that makes things work. That's why I've argued how underrated the OL is. The yards before contact stats tell that story. They've blown open holes. Roman and Kromer did a nice job with the design of it all. I fully expect to see the running game take a step back but still be near the top of the league.

 

We will see if Gillislee succeeds in New England. We've plugged in a lot of backs that have been effective over the last few years. McCoy is a different story. He's a star. He's the Bills best player. He's also in a situation where his skill set can flourish. He wouldn't have been as effective behind Eli Manning. I'm not even sure what you are arguing at this point? In the NFL guys don't operate independent of the other 10 guys on the field. That's why coaching is so important in the NFL. You can't just run LeBron out there and overcome the rest of the players. Drew Brees has thrown for over 15,000 yards and 102 TDs over the last 3 years and has a record of 21-26.

 

Bridgewater is a great example of a guy that "managed the game" well. He did what was asked and put his team in position to succeed. Alex Smith is similar in that sense as well. Teddy reminds me of Smith but is a little better passer. Those are guys that you can win with but don't win because of.

Right, they ran those attempts, not Tyrod. But if you think Tyrod doesn't play a part in that efficiency you are fooling yourself. McCoy had great numbers against 8 in the box, The fact that 1 of those 8 was almost always required to spy the QB played a major part in his success against those fronts. That doesn't take away from McCoy's success, it just provides context. Similarly, defenses are hesitant to attack us aggressively due to a fear of the QB keeping the ball and gashing them for a big gain, which buys time before contact for all runners.

Well said

[BringBackOrton]

Literally nobody brought up Tom Brady but you here. Are you secretly feeling like Tyrod is in Brady's realm when it comes to their effects on a team's rushing efficiency?

 

Also, every skill player on the Patriots that has success gets credited to Tom Brady. Every single one.

That's exactly my point! The TT guys act like he's the first QB in the history of the game to have a positive effect on the run game. He's not.

 

I like facts as much as anyone on this board. Of all of the things that have been said about me on here "not liking facts" is probably the least accurate statement.

 

The running game on a YPC basis was one of the best ever. Happy Days illustrated earlier how much more effective they were with Taylor under center. It's the sum of the parts that makes things work. That's why I've argued how underrated the OL is. The yards before contact stats tell that story. They've blown open holes. Roman and Kromer did a nice job with the design of it all. I fully expect to see the running game take a step back but still be near the top of the league.

 

We will see if Gillislee succeeds in New England. We've plugged in a lot of backs that have been effective over the last few years. McCoy is a different story. He's a star. He's the Bills best player. He's also in a situation where his skill set can flourish. He wouldn't have been as effective behind Eli Manning. I'm not even sure what you are arguing at this point? In the NFL guys don't operate independent of the other 10 guys on the field. That's why coaching is so important in the NFL. You can't just run LeBron out there and overcome the rest of the players. Drew Brees has thrown for over 15,000 yards and 102 TDs over the last 3 years and has a record of 21-26.

 

Bridgewater is a great example of a guy that "managed the game" well. He did what was asked and put his team in position to succeed. Alex Smith is similar in that sense as well. Teddy reminds me of Smith but is a little better passer. Those are guys that you can win with but don't win because of.

Well said

Agreed on the OL, criminally underrated. They had a huge part of the success of the running game, and even the passing game, but mostly TT gets the credit for it all.

[Kirby Jackson]

All QB's play a part in their run game. I've yet to see a single poster say "Thanks to Tom Brady, Legarrette Blount had one of the best years of his career," in the same vein that TT gets praised for a HoF RB doing HoF RB things.

 

I'd love someone to argue that TT helps his offense and run game more than Brady does.

Since you asked, Blount averaged 4 YPC and 88 yards a game (I know that's important to you) in the games that Brady didn't play. He averaged 3.8 YPC and 67 yards in Brady's start last year. You can look to Happy Days post earlier to see how the Bills compared.

[Heitz]

Is this the Tyrod thread now?

 

Aren't they all? Pretty sure it's in the TOS - every thread must have one poster working hard to convince us that Tyrod sucks...

 

Back to my own tangent - US Bank stadium is niiiiice. Huge building, nice seats, it's an indoor venue but feels like you're outside, and it's kinda cool how when you drive down the main strip it dominates one end (visually). Spent a lot of time in the lower club level, great amenities.

 

No Teddy sightings though, but if he comes back, he has a nice house to play in!

[Kirby Jackson]

That's exactly my point! The TT guys act like he's the first QB in the history of the game to have a positive effect on the run game. He's not.

 

Agreed on the OL, criminally underrated. They had a huge part of the success of the running game, and even the passing game, but mostly TT gets the credit for it all.

The OL gets credit for all of it. I know it's criminal to say around here but I think Jordan Mills did a pretty good job in the running game too. He isn't good in pass protection but he's not totally useless like some think. That's the point. Everything plays a role in the good and the bad.

 

I guess that I'm "a TT guy" if I have him between Tannehill and Dalton at around 20ish? That's just where he is. I find myself defending him when I hear things like "backup." There aren't 32 better starters than him in the league. That doesn't mean he's great. You could do better and you could do worse.

Edited July 15, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

So does this make him a bust?

 

Injuries can make players busts.

 

See Kijana Carter