To QB or to not QB

[BillsFanInJax]

There are those that defend the Bills inability to land a Franchise QB by saying there's only one or two out there every year. The Bills have been in the market for a franchise QB since Doug Whaley took over as the team's GM. His job should be to find the 6.5% because that is what it is going to take to get the Bills out of mediocrity. He has to do his job.

So far, that's been EJ Manuel, Tyrod Taylor, and Cardale Jones at the most important spot on a football roster. Serviceable is what we have, and have had, and that is not good enough.

 

The fact that there isn't enough of the franchise types out there is an excuse. No need for excuses. Find THE guy. That's his job right?

[jeffismagic]

Many here believe Whaley found his QB in Tyrod.

[Original Byrd Man]

The issue isn't whether or not this is a good year to draft a QB, it is whether or not the Bills have the right guy in place that knows a franchise QB when he sees him. In 2013 Whaley drafted EJ 19th overall - bust.

 

He missed again in 2014 when he traded from 9 to 4 to get Watkins. If he would have stayed put, he could have drafted ODB or Cooks and then traded up in round 2 to land Carr. Instead, he traded down with the Rams and we ended up with Kouandjio.

 

In 2016, he takes a flier on Cardale Jones in the 4th and he missed on Dak Prescott.

 

The man behind the curtain is the reason the Bills continue to miss the playoffs. Just look at his draft record and you'll see that we have a "smoke and mirrors" GM who never seems to get it right.

 

Cooks + Carr = Playoffs

Watkins + TT = New Coach

Couple of things. You can have Odell the head case. It's way to early to judge the Watkins pick. Prescott was picked before CJ so it would have required a trade up. Watkins + TT does not equal new coach. Sucky D = new coach. 7th ranked Offense says enough points were scored to get better results. I'm not saying I would have minded Cooks and Carr, but there were questions about his arm strength to handle the winds here. EJ was drafted out of desperation from not selecting a QB much sooner. That's totally on Nix. In case you haven't noticed CK has become a solid LT.

[jeffismagic]

Couple of things. You can have Odell the head case. It's way to early to judge the Watkins pick. Prescott was picked before CJ so it would have required a trade up. Watkins + TT does not equal new coach. Sucky D = new coach. 7th ranked Offense says enough points were scored to get better results. I'm not saying I would have minded Cooks and Carr, but there were questions about his arm strength to handle the winds here. EJ was drafted out of desperation from not selecting a QB much sooner. That's totally on Nix. In case you haven't noticed CK has become a solid LT.

Wrong. The Bills had a pick ahead of the Cowboys in the 4th but used it to move up for a 2nd round linebacker that many view as a 2 down player in the NFL.

[Kirby Jackson]

There are those that defend the Bills inability to land a Franchise QB by saying there's only one or two out there every year. The Bills have been in the market for a franchise QB since Doug Whaley took over as the team's GM. His job should be to find the 6.5% because that is what it is going to take to get the Bills out of mediocrity. He has to do his job.

So far, that's been EJ Manuel, Tyrod Taylor, and Cardale Jones at the most important spot on a football roster. Serviceable is what we have, and have had, and that is not good enough.

 

The fact that there isn't enough of the franchise types out there is an excuse. No need for excuses. Find THE guy. That's his job right?

That is the job of 32 GMs. If we use Gunner's list there are 16 guys that would fall into that category (elite, franchise or next generation). Here is the breakdown:

 

Elite:

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Tom Brady

3. Drew Brees

4. Ben Rothlisberger

Definite Franchise Quarterbacks:

5. Matt Ryan

6. Philip Rivers

7. Russell Wilson

8. Andrew Luck

9. Matthew Stafford

10. Eli Manning

11. Joe Flacco

12. Cam Newton

Next Gen:

13. Derek Carr

14. Marcus Mariota

15. Jameis Winston

16. Dak Prescott

The Game Managers:

17. Alex Smith

18. Andy Dalton

19. Kirk Cousins

20. Ryan Tannehill

21. Tyrod Taylor

22. Sam Bradford

The Down Slope:

23. Carson Palmer

24. Jay Cutler

The Unproven:

25. Carson Wentz

26. Blake Bortles

27. Trevor Seimian

28. Brock Osweiler

29. Jared Goff

Need Replacing:

30. Ryan Fitzpatrick

31. Colin Kaepernick

32. Robert Griffin III

 

The guys in red we didn't have a shot at. I left Alex Smith out because he was traded for less than a 1st. I left Aaron Rodgers as a guy that we could have gotten because we used that pick to take Losman the year before. If we use just the elite, franchise and next generation tier there are 7 guys that we had a shot at. There have been 213 QBs drafted since the Brady draft (the farthest back that any of these guys are from). http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=1936&year_max=2016&type=&round_min=1&round_max=30&slot_min=1&slot_max=500&league_id=&team_id=&pos=QB&college_id=all&conference=any&show=allThere are 7 of those guys that we could have had that we missed on.

 

I am just trying to add perspective. We love to talk about Dak and Russell Wilson but never do we hear people saying why didn't we draft Pat White or John Beck or Kevin O'Connell. We need to have perspective!! It is EVERY GM's job to find a "franchise guy." While some people want to hang Whaley out there he has done okay. He managed to secure a decent starting QB at pretty good value. There are a lot of teams that are doing worse.

 

You should always be looking for that guy but you shouldn't just pick them because you need to swing. The hit ratio supports that. Identify the guy(s) and do what you need to do to get him. If you think that Watson is THE guy (for example) get him. Don't ever, ever, ever, ever, ever draft a QB because you think that you have to draft a QB. I don't see a guy in this draft that I believe will be that. One of them may be but unless you believe that don't take a guy. I think accumulating assets for next year when there may be 3 or 4 guys is a better move.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[BillsFanInJax]

EJ was Whaley's guy. Whaley said so himself.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000204027/article/new-bills-gm-doug-whaley-integral-in-ej-manuel-pick

[Buffalo Barbarian]

By all accounts this is not a good year to draft a QB. If you use a 1,2,or3 to draft a QB this year you lose out on the chance to get a legit prospect next year because you will be waiting for your prospect to develop. Good things come to those who wait. I know it's been 17 years but what is another year or two in the grand scheme of things.

 

I wouldn't take one early

[BillsFanInJax]

Whaley's "hit ratio" at the QB position in the draft: 0. The Bills need to fix that.

[yungmack]

The issue isn't whether or not this is a good year to draft a QB, it is whether or not the Bills have the right guy in place that knows a franchise QB when he sees him. In 2013 Whaley drafted EJ 19th overall - bust.

 

He missed again in 2014 when he traded from 9 to 4 to get Watkins. If he would have stayed put, he could have drafted ODB or Cooks and then traded up in round 2 to land Carr. Instead, he traded down with the Rams and we ended up with Kouandjio.

 

In 2016, he takes a flier on Cardale Jones in the 4th and he missed on Dak Prescott.

 

The man behind the curtain is the reason the Bills continue to miss the playoffs. Just look at his draft record and you'll see that we have a "smoke and mirrors" GM who never seems to get it right.

 

Cooks + Carr = Playoffs

Watkins + TT = New Coach

[/qI'muote]

You appear to be new here. I urge you to search the archives for the roughly 1 billion times this has been discussed.

[BillsFanInJax]

No thanks. That would be a waste of time. Continuing to point out that Whaley has a 0.00 hit ratio at the QB position is valid when it comes to talking about whether to draft a QB or not.

[GoBills808]

By all accounts this is not a good year to draft a QB. If you use a 1,2,or3 to draft a QB this year you lose out on the chance to get a legit prospect next year because you will be waiting for your prospect to develop. Good things come to those who wait. I know it's been 17 years but what is another year or two in the grand scheme of things.

This is actually why I want QB high this year...dump Manuel and Taylor, start whoever wins between Jones/rookie, if he looks good then great, and if not go all out for QB in 2018.

 

I know nobody wants to do this for job security reasons, but as a fan... I'm really not seeing a team set up for success in the near future. I just don't see it. I think it's eminently likely the defense improves and the run game declines next season, leaving us right at that franchise killing 7-9 to 9-7 season ad infinitum. We're not close.

 

So I'm cool with giving the new staff a chance to find their guy over the next two years while cutting some dead wood and getting younger through the draft. What I fear is that by doing nothing drastic enough we simply prolong this period of stasis to the point I start losing interest.

[BigBuff423]

The issue is that it's not just "oh well, what's another year"...the issue is, that it's another year without a long-term solution that could provide the spark to something much better. I am NOT in favor of keeping Tyrod, but IF they do, I still think they pull a Washington Redskins type of thing (no, not trading up) but drafting a QB in 2nd round and say, 4th or 5th round. Like Mahomes and C. Kelly or something of that variety, because I don't think Cardale has the capability to do the job really at all. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm ok with basically exchanging Cardale for Chad Kelly or someone similar, and IMO Kelly doesn't go before the 4th, if at all, because of off-field issues and injury that will prevent him from being truly available for the 2017 season. Also, IF the Bills DON'T keep Tyrod, I'm on the same plan, but I'm going for someone like Matt Moore, Glennon or Landry Jones and then Drafting a QB in the 1st if possible and still Drafting a QB late....I don't think the Bills can ignore the QB position the way they have for all these years. Yes, this team is good in other areas and has needs like S/LB/WR, but from watching teams like Pats and Seahawks, WR is much less the concern and can be done via FA.

[Kirby Jackson]

No thanks. That would be a waste of time. Continuing to point out that Whaley has a 0.00 hit ratio at the QB position is valid when it comes to talking about whether to draft a QB or not.

Whether you like Tyrod or not how can you say that Whaley failed in regards to him? He signed the guy to a small contract and he's gone to back-to-back Pro Bowls. He's been top 10 in QBR twice. He has 47 TDs and 12 INTs. You wouldn't call that a successful addition? He has been considered the best value for a QB by PFF. Even if you think that he isn't a franchise guy you can't call that a swing and a miss. Edited January 26, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[GoBills808]

Whether you like Tyrod or not how can you say that he failed in regards to him. He signed the guy to a small contract and he's gone to back-to-back Pro Bowls. He's been top 10 in QBR twice. You wouldn't call that a successful addition? He has been considered the best value for a QB by PFF. Even if you think that he isn't a franchis guy you can't call that a swing and a miss.

I think this is THE issue.

 

I don't agree with you BTW, I'm firmly in the camp that says Taylor's inherently flawed as a QB. Still, if you look at it strictly from a numbers perspective you'd have to say we're getting decent value there as he's still relatively affordable.

 

My issue is that the QB spot is where you need excellent value and you shouldn't be afraid to walk away from a marginal guy when it's clear here's not the answer. My example is Tannehill, who's not terrible but will prevent, in all likelihood, the Dolphins from ever winning a SB as long as he's the guy there.

 

For me, talent trumps value at QB every time.

[Kirby Jackson]

I think this is THE issue.

 

I don't agree with you BTW, I'm firmly in the camp that says Taylor's inherently flawed as a QB. Still, if you look at it strictly from a numbers perspective you'd have to say we're getting decent value there as he's still relatively affordable.

 

My issue is that the QB spot is where you need excellent value and you shouldn't be afraid to walk away from a marginal guy when it's clear here's not the answer. My example is Tannehill, who's not terrible but will prevent, in all likelihood, the Dolphins from ever winning a SB as long as he's the guy there.

 

For me, talent trumps value at QB every time.

We aren't in disagreement. We have gotten great value to this point. We will simply be getting decent value when the contract kicks in.

 

I don't see a guy that upgrades the position in this draft. I think that's it's much more likely, if we move on, that QB play regresses. I've said a bunch of times if there's a guy that improves QB play go get him.

[GoBills808]

We aren't in disagreement. We have gotten great value to this point. We will simply be getting decent value when the contract kicks in.

 

I don't see a guy that upgrades the position in this draft. I think that's it's much more likely, if we move on, that QB play regresses. I've said a bunch of times if there's a guy that improves QB play go get him.

I gotcha. My belief is that if you're going to accept a 'value' type guy as your bridge, you'd rather he be a more prototypical passer...thus, you're not wedded to a system (and personnel, coaches, offensive scheme etc...) that needs a complete overhaul once you find your guy. A transition QB like Taylor inevitably means a total offensive rebuild when he proves (my opinion, it's not inevitable) he's not SB quality. That's why I'd accept a hypothetical rookie because A: maybe you strike gold and B: if you don't, it's not as damaging an offensive overhaul in the interim.

[San-O]

WE (fans) do not have the necessary skills and knowledge to know a "Franchise QB" if he was staring us in the face... It's more than just stats... I'm not sure the Bills (or most other NFL FO) do either... But you have to at least TRY...

 

If you want to take the defeatist point of view, then nothing is gonna matter until Brady retires anyway...

 

We got nothing nothing out of our top two draft picks last season... Dak Prescott would have looked pretty good in the 2nd or even in the 3rd round (instead of A. Washington for example)

 

The draft is a crap shoot anyway you look at it... QB is THE most important position on the team... But we should ignore it again - until NEXT year??? and then we can ignore it till the year after that because maybe there will be another bunch of supposedly better QB's???

 

Try living in the here and the now for a change...

 

they don't and Whaley certainly doesn't...

[K-Apps]

Draft BPA, Bills don't need an EJ Manuel redux, get the best WR, O-Line, or Secondary player in that position.

[BillsFanInJax]

I didn't say Whaley failed in regards to TT. I said he has a 0.00 hit ratio In the draft when it comes to drafting QB. And he does. Isn't part of Whaley's job to hit on draft picks? Take a hard look at his draft picks. Uninspiring, especially at the most important position on the field - QB.

[Kirby Jackson]

I didn't say Whaley failed in regards to TT. I said he has a 0.00 hit ratio In the draft when it comes to drafting QB. And he does. Isn't part of Whaley's job to hit on draft picks? Take a hard look at his draft picks. Uninspiring, especially at the most important position on the field - QB.

He drafted 1 guy as the GM in the 4th round and he is entering his 2nd year!!! If you want to add EJ, I guess you can but keeping in mind that he wasn't the GM at the time of the draft.

 

He has drafted fine. There are some areas that can improve but the Bills talent level is way up from when he got here. I don't know if you pay attention to the rest of the league but the Bills aren't trailing in talent. They failed in execution which is why they have hover around .500 even though the talent is a few games better.