Rapoport: Hints that Bills Are Likely to Keep Tyrod Taylor

[jr1]

John Elway threw for 4000 yards just once and had a career completion percentage of 56.9

[Coach Tuesday]

 

Agree with this. The ONLY difference it would make to the Bills is they would have the franchise tag available (which would allow them to string it out another year I suppose).

Not sure I follow - what if they had waited until mid-season? Couldn't they have dropped the price for 2017 by about $10M?

[Maury Ballstein]

Will someone explain to me why the Bills had to give Tyrod that contract at that time? They did this to themselves. Whaley continues to amaze me.

 

I think PTR lobbied for it. Something about a smack in the face to pay him the contract he signed.

 

Now he has priced himself out of a job with his meh play. Oh well. Whose the next qb1 ?

[ice2145]

I don't care how they score their points... not one bit. But even given their point scoring exploits this year I don't think Tyrod is a franchise Quarterback.

 

GunnerBill, I always respect your post and your knowledge especially when it comes to the QB position. IMHO, TT doesn't look like a franchise QB. In a previous post by Alpha, he made some very valid points that I strongly agreed with. In short, I do believe the Bills can win and go to the playoffs with TT under center. At this point, I am a starving fan wanting to see a Bills playoff game.. How sad it that... There are plenty of other reasons we didn't win more games besides TT. I am very conflicted with the whole situation. At times, I want to cut him and move on and at other times I want him to stay. Both options are not optimal.

Edited January 27, 2017 by ice2145

[mead107]

New qb coach will make Great again

[GunnerBill]

 

GunnerBill, I always respect your post and your knowledge especially when it comes to the QB position. IMHO, TT doesn't look like a franchise QB. In a previous post by Alpha, he made some very valid points that I strongly agreed with. In short, I do believe the Bills can win and go to the playoffs with TT under center. At this point, I am a starving fan wanting to see a Bills playoff game.. How sad it that... There are plenty of other reasons we didn't win more games besides TT. I am very conflicted with the whole situation. At times, I want to cut him and move on and at other times I want him to stay. Both options are not optimal.

 

Then we are broadly in agreement. if our goal is JUST make the playoffs ASAP then we should stick with Tyrod and do our best to reload this year. Keep Gilmore, kick the salary cap can down the road, renegotiate some deals to do that.

 

Where we differ is at 17 years (and I started following this sport and this team 16 years ago I have NEVER seen us make the playoffs) to be honest making it in once to be 1 and done Dolphin style holds less appeal. I want to be the Raiders prior to the Carr injury. Getting in thinking we have a chance to win it all.

[GunnerBill]

Who says they can't?

 

If their defense wasn't a **** show, along with some good coaching they could've beat ANYONE they played last season

 

I don't believe they can. If you do, fair play, then I understand you would keep him. I might be wrong, maybe I am, but each of us can only trust what our eyes are seeing. I repeat my process is I watched every game live (except Miami away) watched every all 22 and am now in the formative stages of my re-watch (only on week 3 so far). I am telling you my opinion based on what I see.

 

I am not necessarily gospel. I am an amateur in every sense... but this is my opinion.

[FireChan]

Will someone explain to me why the Bills had to give Tyrod that contract at that time? They did this to themselves. Whaley continues to amaze me.

It was calculated risk. I disagreed with it at the time, but I could see the merit.

 

If TT replicated his 2015 season or improved, he was gonna get PAID. Locking him in earlier bought goodwill for the team, as well as keeping his cap hit respectable, instead of putting him on the Brocketship path of overpaying.

 

The obvious downside was if he didn't improve and in fact played worse, we'd be stuck either cutting him/not picking up the option, which shatters our goodwill previously bought, or overpaying him.

 

I'd rather have let him play out 2016 and then re-signed him or let him test FA.

[26TrapDraw]

See what aggravates me so much about the TT situation is you look at the 2 QBs in the Superbowl. Those two are reading so much pre snap. They are motioning rb's out to see if a LB follows indicating man Defense. Then you see them audible at the line and attack the defense. It seems that they are so smart and just flat out get how to read defenses. I never get that sense with Taylor. Maybe it's because of the results and constantly missing receivers that makes me think that. Does anyone else have the feeling he just doesn't know how to read man to man or zone D like me?

[Maury Ballstein]

See what aggravates me so much about the TT situation is you look at the 2 QBs in the Superbowl. Those two are reading so much pre snap. They are motioning rb's out to see if a LB follows indicating man Defense. Then you see them audible at the line and attack the defense. It seems that they are so smart and just flat out get how to read defenses. I never get that sense with Taylor. Maybe it's because of the results and constantly missing receivers that makes me think that. Does anyone else have the feeling he just doesn't know how to read man to man or zone D like me?

Yes. He's clueless as a passer.

[PromoTheRobot]

Will someone explain to me why the Bills had to give Tyrod that contract at that time? They did this to themselves. Whaley continues to amaze me.

To lock him up past this season while giving the Bills an out if they moved on.

[BADOLBILZ]

It was calculated risk. I disagreed with it at the time, but I could see the merit.

 

If TT replicated his 2015 season or improved, he was gonna get PAID. Locking him in earlier bought goodwill for the team, as well as keeping his cap hit respectable, instead of putting him on the Brocketship path of overpaying.

 

The obvious downside was if he didn't improve and in fact played worse, we'd be stuck either cutting him/not picking up the option, which shatters our goodwill previously bought, or overpaying him.

 

I'd rather have let him play out 2016 and then re-signed him or let him test FA.

 

 

If Sammy Watkins had been even just as healthy/available as he was his first two seasons the options for Taylor would be franchise tag( approx $21M cap hit in 2017) or much more lucrative long term extension as the only options because Tyrod would have put up much better numbers and the offense likely finishes top 5 in scoring.

 

The Bills got a look at Taylor in very unfavorable personnel circumstances as a passer so now they need to decide how to weigh that in their decision making..........because aside from the POSSIBLE exception of Tom Brady no team that has a $20M+ QB is only being given a Bob Woods and a bunch of #6 WR's to throw to.........they all have playmakers......so you have to weigh in what Big Ben would look like with Sammy Coates and somebody who couldn't even make the Steelers depth chart as his top two options most of a season etc.......... and therefore relatively speaking is Taylor's production worth the $8M-$10M per year less?

 

To me, not tough questions to answer for such a short term commitment.

 

I gotta' laugh about the worry about a $10M dead money hit if they move on after year two..........Bills had the same kind of hit when they dumped Fitz and that wasn't franchise crippling.

 

Veteran QB pay is expensive........that's because the impact of that play might be 10 times that of any other position on the field.

Not sure I follow - what if they had waited until mid-season? Couldn't they have dropped the price for 2017 by about $10M?

 

 

I don't see why Taylor would sign anything at that point.

 

The argument by his agent would be........you give my client Bob Woods to throw to and otherwise a bunch of guys who wouldn't have a job if there were only 31 teams.........and NOW you want to negotiate?

[FireChan]

 

 

If Sammy Watkins had been even just as healthy/available as he was his first two seasons the options for Taylor would be franchise tag( approx $21M cap hit in 2017) or much more lucrative long term extension as the only options because Tyrod would have put up much better numbers and the offense likely finishes top 5 in scoring.

 

The Bills got a look at Taylor in very unfavorable personnel circumstances as a passer so now they need to decide how to weigh that in their decision making..........because aside from the POSSIBLE exception of Tom Brady no team that has a $20M+ QB is only being given a Bob Woods and a bunch of #6 WR's to throw to.........they all have playmakers......so you have to weigh in what Big Ben would look like with Sammy Coates and somebody who couldn't even make the Steelers depth chart as his top two options most of a season etc.......... and therefore relatively speaking is Taylor's production worth the $8M-$10M per year less?

 

To me, not tough questions to answer for such a short term commitment.

 

I gotta' laugh about the worry about a $10M dead money hit if they move on after year two..........Bills had the same kind of hit when they dumped Fitz and that wasn't franchise crippling.

 

Veteran QB pay is expensive........that's because the impact of that play might be 10 times that of any other position on the field.

Depends on who you ask BADOL. I recall that being an excuse for being cheap in FA for 2 years.

 

That's a very interesting way to consider it. However, as you recall, TT was extended when we knew Sammy was still having foot problems. It's not necessarily a hindsight argument when we knew Sammy was not 100%.

 

Would we have to pay TT less if we were re-signing him now instead of in August? I think we might. As you have said many times yourself, the only way this team is pushing by the Pats is through an overload of talent and paying TT a couple million more is detrimental when that could net us Gilmore and another FA alone.

[BADOLBILZ]

Depends on who you ask BADOL. I recall that being an excuse for being cheap in FA for 2 years.

 

That's a very interesting way to consider it. However, as you recall, TT was extended when we knew Sammy was still having foot problems. It's not necessarily a hindsight argument when we knew Sammy was not 100%.

 

Would we have to pay TT less if we were re-signing him now instead of in August? I think we might. As you have said many times yourself, the only way this team is pushing by the Pats is through an overload of talent and paying TT a couple million more is detrimental when that could net us Gilmore and another FA alone.

 

 

Oh I think when they signed him they fully expected Tyrod to turn into a clear-cut, whole field using, $25M franchise QB and he didn't do that.

 

He left a lot of throws on the field.........but then he turned around and made plays that essentially no other QB can make that in REALITY more than evened those out.........but didn't quell the perception of some fans that he sucked and was holding back the offense........when in fact the offense was actually dogs*t without him.

 

Would they have had to pay him less? Maybe or maybe he'd want to see what the market would bear.

 

It was a tough call either way because I think they wanted that franchise tag to use one the motivationally challenged blanket corner Stephon Gilmore.

 

And I think based on the fact that McDermott and Frazier have already reached out to Gilmore the Bills still probably intend to slap the tag on him and want him to play nice.

 

If it was any other position I would fret over that dead money.......the declining scale of risk/reward wrt dead money starts at QB and drops PRECIPITOUSLY to pass rusher, playmaking pass catcher, CB, OT and then the rest you hopefully never lose a cent of dead money on.

[FireChan]

 

 

Oh I think when they signed him they fully expected Tyrod to turn into a clear-cut, whole field using, $25M franchise QB and he didn't do that.

 

He left a lot of throws on the field.........but then he turned around and made plays that essentially no other QB can make that in REALITY more than evened those out.........but didn't quell the perception of some fans that he sucked and was holding back the offense........when in fact the offense was actually dogs*t without him.

 

Would they have had to pay him less? Maybe or maybe he'd want to see what the market would bear.

 

It was a tough call either way because I think they wanted that franchise tag to use one the motivationally challenged blanket corner Stephon Gilmore.

 

And I think based on the fact that McDermott and Frazier have already reached out to Gilmore the Bills still probably intend to slap the tag on him and want him to play nice.

 

If it was any other position I would fret over that dead money.......the declining scale of risk/reward wrt dead money starts at QB and drops PRECIPITOUSLY to pass rusher, playmaking pass catcher, CB, OT and then the rest you hopefully never lose a cent of dead money on.

I guess I just don't agree with the bolded. Shady has had years like the one we've seen in 2016 without a guy like TT under center.

 

TT does a lot for the offense outside of passing, which I absolutely understand. I'm just not sure how much of a net positive he really is. His 3rd down rate is very poor and then there's the self sacks/ditching clean pockets.

 

I guess I expected him to take a clear step forward in taking what the defense gave him, namely 1 or 2 big time throws that would've changed more games. There were a lot of games in 2016 that one or 2 more throws by TT change the outcome. And I just didn't see him take that step. That's not to say if the defense made 1 or 2 more plays, the outcomes ALSO wouldn't have been different.

 

To me, the extension was based on him taking a step, and his failure to do so kinda stifles my hope for him. He may be one of the more frustrating QB's to watch on any given Sunday.

[billsfan89]

I hope they keep Tyrod. I am fine with drafting a QB and keeping Tyrod. Tyrod is better than any QB the Bills can acquire this off-season via trade or free agency. Tyrod will be better this season than any QB the Bills can draft. Maybe draft Chad Kelly late and stick with developing him and Cardale while Tyrod holds down the position this year and next year (Probably would need to sign a decent back up if you weren't drafting a QB in rounds 1 or 2.)

 

Right now I see no better option than Tyrod at QB for the Bills. Is Tyrod a franchise QB? No but his contract is affordable and not a long term commitment beyond next year and he is an above average QB who is good enough to win with a good supporting cast. The Bills can use the luxery of having a solid option at QB while picking their spot to have long term development at the QB position.

[BADOLBILZ]

I guess I just don't agree with the bolded. Shady has had years like the one we've seen in 2016 without a guy like TT under center.

 

TT does a lot for the offense outside of passing, which I absolutely understand. I'm just not sure how much of a net positive he really is. His 3rd down rate is very poor and then there's the self sacks/ditching clean pockets.

 

I guess I expected him to take a clear step forward in taking what the defense gave him, namely 1 or 2 big time throws that would've changed more games. There were a lot of games in 2016 that one or 2 more throws by TT change the outcome. And I just didn't see him take that step. That's not to say if the defense made 1 or 2 more plays, the outcomes ALSO wouldn't have been different.

 

To me, the extension was based on him taking a step, and his failure to do so kinda stifles my hope for him. He may be one of the more frustrating QB's to watch on any given Sunday.

 

 

So how do you explain Mike Gillislee and Karlos Williams averaging a God-like 5.7 ypc on full season plus-like workload of 250+ carries and putting up 18 rushing TD's behind Tyrod?

 

The tiny sample excuses last year were quaint but the tape doesn't lie.

 

Tyrod doesn't see a number of open WR but he effectively diffuses attacking defenses, thereby creating great opportunity on offense.

 

Given a stud WR like Watkins he also stretches the D vertically.......whether his OL blocks well or not(see Mills).

 

Not the SAME opportunities as a franchise QB.......but a franchise volume mostly found in huge plays.........something Shady produced in 2016.....but NOT in 2015......while Tyrod has overseen tons of huge plays in BOTH years.

 

Sans Tyrod the Bills OL/QB are vulnerable to penetrating defenses playing the run on the way to the QB.

 

It's as simple as that.

 

Sometimes even good passing QB's can't help a run game get going because defenses use aggressive fronts to force quick passes and then can sweep up the run in the backfield in the process.

[FireChan]

 

 

So how do you explain Mike Gillislee and Karlos Williams averaging a God-like 5.7 ypc on full season plus-like workload of 250+ carries and putting up 18 rushing TD's behind Tyrod?

 

The tiny sample excuses last year were quaint but the tape doesn't lie.

 

Tyrod doesn't see a number of open WR but he effectively diffuses attacking defenses, thereby creating great opportunity on offense.

 

Given a stud WR like Watkins he also stretches the D vertically.......whether his OL blocks well or not(see Mills).

 

Not the SAME opportunities as a franchise QB.......but a franchise volume mostly found in huge plays.........something Shady produced in 2016.....but NOT in 2015......while Tyrod has overseen tons of huge plays in BOTH years.

 

Sans Tyrod the Bills OL/QB are vulnerable to penetrating defenses playing the run on the way to the QB.

 

It's as simple as that.

 

Sometimes even good passing QB's can't help a run game get going because defenses use aggressive fronts to force quick passes and then can sweep up the run in the backfield in the process.

Backup RB's regularly put up high YPC. Bilial Powell put 5.5 YPC in 2016 and it sure wasn't because he had a mobile QB. Ryan Mathews put up 5.1 YPC in 2015 as a backup.

[BADOLBILZ]

Backup RB's regularly put up high YPC. Bilial Powell put 5.5 YPC in 2016 and it sure wasn't because he had a mobile QB. Ryan Mathews put up 5.1 YPC in 2015 as a backup.

 

Powell was an interesting case but he scored just 3 TD's on 130 carries.........and is otherwise a 4.2ypc back in his 6 year career...........THAT is the small sample size versus a large one and the lack of TD's reflects that 5.5 really was the cap of his production.

 

When you are punching it into the end zone 18 times you are saying "yea, 5.7 BUT IT COULDA' BEEN A LOT MORE if the goal line didn't stop me."

 

There is NO DISCOUNTING what Karlos and MG did under Taylor

 

And btw.......Ryan Matthews is a former first rounder, was a year removed from a 1255 yard season and had averaged 4.9 in a full season before.......he's not some dude that bounced around and was picked off a practice squad or a converted college safety with a weed problem.

[3rdand12]

 

That contract wasn't and isn't as bad as people make it out to be. I say that because the Bills have an option to walk away if they so choose.

 

Most other teams would have just signed the guy to a longer term contract. And then Tyrod would automatically be assumed to be the starting quarterback going into next year. Instead the Bills left themselves with an "out" so that "if" Tyrod turned out to be a bad qb they could move on from him rather than be stuck with the guy for years to come. That is why it was a "prove it" contract where they could evaluate him after a while and then see if they wanted to be married to him for another 3 years or more.

 

The part of this situation that effed things up was the fact that the Bills had Greg Roman as an offensive coordinator. As such, the Bills passed the ball less than any other team. That resulted in what "appeared" to be a weak passing attack. And some people blame that lack of passing production entirely on the QB.

 

When in reality what happened was they saw the Bills lose a close game. Then they looked at the stats and saw total passing yards was low. So they went looking for "why" it was low. And they saw Tyrod miss an open receiver and not throw him the ball. So they told themselves that Tyrod was the reason for the low passing yards. When in fact, Tyrod was playing about average ball as a passer (some games above average and some below) if you account for his number of pass attempts.

 

The only reason there is any question about Tyrod right now is because of Greg Roman's style of offense. If Tyrod had been given the opportunity to throw the ball more often in an offense that was designed to throw the ball more, then even this low percentage of people who want to cut him would be saying we should keep him. Well except for the true haters of which there is a handful of people here.

I think this is where the Bills are huddling up right now. To answer just that very question !

Very good post.

His one mantra was DO NOT TURN THE BALL OVER, PERIOD

 

 

So how do you explain Mike Gillislee and Karlos Williams averaging a God-like 5.7 ypc on full season plus-like workload of 250+ carries and putting up 18 rushing TD's behind Tyrod?

 

The tiny sample excuses last year were quaint but the tape doesn't lie.

 

Tyrod doesn't see a number of open WR but he effectively diffuses attacking defenses, thereby creating great opportunity on offense.

 

Given a stud WR like Watkins he also stretches the D vertically.......whether his OL blocks well or not(see Mills).

 

Not the SAME opportunities as a franchise QB.......but a franchise volume mostly found in huge plays.........something Shady produced in 2016.....but NOT in 2015......while Tyrod has overseen tons of huge plays in BOTH years.

 

Sans Tyrod the Bills OL/QB are vulnerable to penetrating defenses playing the run on the way to the QB.

 

It's as simple as that.

 

Sometimes even good passing QB's can't help a run game get going because defenses use aggressive fronts to force quick passes and then can sweep up the run in the backfield in the process.

There was a time i really took offense to your posts, and thought little of your seemingly narrow minded opinions.

You are quite lucky I have great patience and am able to remain exceedingly open minded !

Somehow, you have turned into one of my favorite posters.

Funny how that works ?

 

Cheers Badol