Gugny Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 Without doing the full exercise I'd have to imagine the top 2 would be Oakland (Carr's on a ridiculously cheap rookie deal) and Pats* because Brady's paid outside the NFL's parameters so his deal is team friendly. Cleveland's would be some easy math, too, lol.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 Cleveland's would be some easy math, too, lol. it'd actually be pretty easy if you just took the team's total spending on all qb's divided by wins. It gets much more tricky with the browns if you try to do it by who started (didn't they have like 5 different starters this year?)
Gugny Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 it'd actually be pretty easy if you just took the team's total spending on all qb's divided by wins. It gets much more tricky with the browns if you try to do it by who started (didn't they have like 5 different starters this year?) But this would be the starter of the game they won, only.
1billsfan Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 For those who think the Bills "are close" what is the acceptable amount of wins for Buffalo next year? What is the minimum standard for success paying a QB about 30 million over the next 2 years? Just wanted to understand the thought process. If Tyrod wins 6 games was it worth the investment? Is 8 and 8 the standard? 2017 schedule - Almost for sure losses - 2 Patriots games, Raiders, Falcons, Buccaneers Say they split wins vs Jets/Dolphins - 2 more losses That’s 7 losses Of the remaining 9 games, well say the Bills start off with the 2 wins from the Jets/Dolphins split. That means the Bills would have to go 6-1 in these games to just get to an 8-8 record… Chiefs (Smith), Chargers (Rivers), Panthers (Newton), Bengals (Dalton), Broncos, Saints (Brees), Titans (Mariota) You can call it what you will, but I’m with you in expecting a 6 win record even with Taylor starting. So what’s the point of bringing him back. If the Bills go 6-10 with Taylor, he won’t be back as the Bills starting QB in 2018. And he’ll be sucking up 18 million or so in cap space that could have been used to help out a young QB by surrounding him with a solid roster of players especially on the offensive line.
jeffismagic Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 Rating a Qb on wins and losses as the primary way to measure him is pretty silly in my opinion. The quarterback (whoever it is) should be judged relative to other quarterbacks in the league as well as relative to the other major factors affecting his play - like the rest of the team he is surrounded with. I'm not rating the QB on wins and losses. I'll ask you a more direct hypothetical. I have a crystal ball and the Bills win 6 games next year with Tyrod Taylor at QB. Tyrod leads a top 3 rushing attack and a bottom 3 passing game. He is pretty efficient and throws less than 20 TD's while limiting turnovers to ten. Would you pay 30 million for this known result over 2 years?
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 I'm not rating the QB on wins and losses. I'll ask you a more direct hypothetical. I have a crystal ball and the Bills win 6 games next year with Tyrod Taylor at QB. Tyrod leads a top 3 rushing attack and a bottom 3 passing game. He is pretty efficient and throws less than 20 TD's while limiting turnovers to ten. Would you pay 30 million for this known result over 2 years? How many TD's does he rush for in this hypothetical?
jeffismagic Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 (edited) How many TD's does he rush for in this hypothetical? 4. But regardless, the Bills win 6 games next year. You in? Edited January 26, 2017 by jeffismagic
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 4. But regardless, the Bills win 6 games next year. You in? Well first, it sounds like he's regressing. 23 total TDs in 16 games would be ~3 TDs short of his normal rate over the past 2 years. But yes, I believe Tyrod would perform at least as well as the 20th QB in the league from a production standpoint, which is where his cap hits put him over the next 2 years. It's a shame McDermott couldn't get the Defense turned around though...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 2017 schedule - Almost for sure losses - 2 Patriots games, Raiders, Falcons, Buccaneers Say they split wins vs Jets/Dolphins - 2 more losses That’s 7 losses Of the remaining 9 games, well say the Bills start off with the 2 wins from the Jets/Dolphins split. That means the Bills would have to go 6-1 in these games to just get to an 8-8 record… Chiefs (Smith), Chargers (Rivers), Panthers (Newton), Bengals (Dalton), Broncos, Saints (Brees), Titans (Mariota) You can call it what you will, but I’m with you in expecting a 6 win record even with Taylor starting. So what’s the point of bringing him back. If the Bills go 6-10 with Taylor, he won’t be back as the Bills starting QB in 2018. And he’ll be sucking up 18 million or so in cap space that could have been used to help out a young QB by surrounding him with a solid roster of players especially on the offensive line. We're for sure losing to the bucs? What am i missing? The raiders were also absurdly healthy through the first 15 weeks of the season.
PolishDave Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 I'm not rating the QB on wins and losses. I'll ask you a more direct hypothetical. I have a crystal ball and the Bills win 6 games next year with Tyrod Taylor at QB. Tyrod leads a top 3 rushing attack and a bottom 3 passing game. He is pretty efficient and throws less than 20 TD's while limiting turnovers to ten. Would you pay 30 million for this known result over 2 years? The only stats you used that are even remotely QB specific is throwing less than 20 TD's and picks. And I wouldn't judge a Qb based on that alone. I don't think you understood my point.
jeffismagic Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 The only stats you used that are even remotely QB specific is throwing less than 20 TD's and picks. And I wouldn't judge a Qb based on that alone. I don't think you understood my point. Tyrod throws for 3100 yards, completes 62% of his passes with a 7.7 yards per attempt. Starts 15 games. Wins 6 games. Do you sign up for it?
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 The only stats you used that are even remotely QB specific is throwing less than 20 TD's and picks. And I wouldn't judge a Qb based on that alone. I don't think you understood my point. Dallas was 2nd in the league in rushing... and had about 3700 yards passing. I think we could get the 30-40 yards per game additional just by attempting a few more passes each game. Some easy screens and bubbles instead of running plays into loaded fronts.
section122 Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 This would be fun .... take every starting QB and divide his 2016 salary by the number of games won during said QB's starts. I'm not doing it, but it would be cool to see how much each team paid per win. I'm a sucker for something like this. I'll try to work it out... I'm not rating the QB on wins and losses. I'll ask you a more direct hypothetical. I have a crystal ball and the Bills win 6 games next year with Tyrod Taylor at QB. Tyrod leads a top 3 rushing attack and a bottom 3 passing game. He is pretty efficient and throws less than 20 TD's while limiting turnovers to ten. Would you pay 30 million for this known result over 2 years? 4. But regardless, the Bills win 6 games next year. You in? For the last time.... Wins and Losses are not a QB stat. Your hypothetical is inane at best. Nobody that wants to keep Tyrod thinks that doing so will net 6 wins nor do they want to see that from the Bills. You are making schedule projections in January ffs. When the schedule came out last year did you think the Bills would beat the Bengals? Did you think the Panthers would finish as poorly as they did? Phillip Rivers, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, and the #1 and #2 pick from last year all finished with 7 or fewer wins last year.
jeffismagic Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 I'm a sucker for something like this. I'll try to work it out... For the last time.... Wins and Losses are not a QB stat. Your hypothetical is inane at best. Nobody that wants to keep Tyrod thinks that doing so will net 6 wins nor do they want to see that from the Bills. You are making schedule projections in January ffs. When the schedule came out last year did you think the Bills would beat the Bengals? Did you think the Panthers would finish as poorly as they did? Phillip Rivers, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, and the #1 and #2 pick from last year all finished with 7 or fewer wins last year. I'm not asking you to use wins and losses as a QB stat. Just running a thought experiment. If you knew the Bills would win 6 games next year with Tyrod would you sign up for it or not? Yes or no question. Not asking you to evaluate the season or wins or losses. I'm telling you they win 6. Just for fun. Now where do you stand given the information I just gave you?
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 I'm not asking you to use wins and losses as a QB stat. Just running a thought experiment. If you knew the Bills would win 6 games next year with Tyrod would you sign up for it or not? Yes or no question. Not asking you to evaluate the season or wins or losses. I'm telling you they win 6. Just for fun. Now where do you stand given the information I just gave you? I don't take it - i want to win more than 6 games. That's the only thing i even looked at.
jeffismagic Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 I don't take it - i want to win more than 6 games. That's the only thing i even looked at. Thank you. There's no right or wrong answer. Just wanted to know if people would regret spending 30 million on a QB if he stayed about the same but the end result was 6 wins, for example.
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 Thank you. There's no right or wrong answer. Just wanted to know if people would regret spending 30 million on a QB if he stayed about the same but the end result was 6 wins, for example. Miami is overrated and the Jets aren't very good. And we lost 4 games to them last year. That alone pisses me off. 6-10 means we probably lose 2-3 games to those teams again. Which pisses me off....
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 2017 schedule - Almost for sure losses - 2 Patriots games, Raiders, Falcons, Buccaneers Say they split wins vs Jets/Dolphins - 2 more losses That’s 7 losses Of the remaining 9 games, well say the Bills start off with the 2 wins from the Jets/Dolphins split. That means the Bills would have to go 6-1 in these games to just get to an 8-8 record… Chiefs (Smith), Chargers (Rivers), Panthers (Newton), Bengals (Dalton), Broncos, Saints (Brees), Titans (Mariota) You can call it what you will, but I’m with you in expecting a 6 win record even with Taylor starting. So what’s the point of bringing him back. If the Bills go 6-10 with Taylor, he won’t be back as the Bills starting QB in 2018. And he’ll be sucking up 18 million or so in cap space that could have been used to help out a young QB by surrounding him with a solid roster of players especially on the offensive line. I took a look, for what it's worth. Our 2017 opponents include 5 playoff teams from 2016 and their combined record is 143-112-1 Our 2016 opponents included 5 playoff teams from 2015 and their combined record was 133-123
Maury Ballstein Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 2017 schedule - Almost for sure losses - 2 Patriots games, Raiders, Falcons, Buccaneers Say they split wins vs Jets/Dolphins - 2 more losses That’s 7 losses Of the remaining 9 games, well say the Bills start off with the 2 wins from the Jets/Dolphins split. That means the Bills would have to go 6-1 in these games to just get to an 8-8 record… Chiefs (Smith), Chargers (Rivers), Panthers (Newton), Bengals (Dalton), Broncos, Saints (Brees), Titans (Mariota) You can call it what you will, but I’m with you in expecting a 6 win record even with Taylor starting. So what’s the point of bringing him back. If the Bills go 6-10 with Taylor, he won’t be back as the Bills starting QB in 2018. And he’ll be sucking up 18 million or so in cap space that could have been used to help out a young QB by surrounding him with a solid roster of players especially on the offensive line. Bravo. This is what I see as well. 6 wins maybe w Taylor.
PolishDave Posted January 26, 2017 Posted January 26, 2017 (edited) Tyrod throws for 3100 yards, completes 62% of his passes with a 7.7 yards per attempt. Starts 15 games. Wins 6 games. Do you sign up for it? Why is he only starting 15 games? Does he get injured? If he played the extra game would it have been a win like this year? Your stats are a bit messed up. If he throws 7.7 yards per attempt and gets 3100 yards then that means they only threw the ball 402 times which is even less than they threw it this year? Did we get Roman back? By the way 7.7 Yards per attempt would have him ranked 8th in the league and ahead of all of the following guys - Stafford, Mariotta, Winston, Flacco, Roethlisberger, Rivers and Rogers. So that is pretty darn good. What about the receivers and the line? Who are his receivers and are they healthy all year or is Sammy out for 1/2 a season again? What about the o-line? Where do they rank in pass protection in your crystal ball? What kind of offensive scheme are they running? See, all those things matter. And if you are still going to use wins as a measurement, then you have to consider what kind of defense the bills have next year, their special teams and the strength of their opponents. Why are you ignoring such things? Don't they also affect the outcome of games in terms of wins and losses? Edited January 26, 2017 by PolishDave
Recommended Posts