What should the Bills plan be from here on?

[Alphadawg7]

 

You forgot to mention #1 in Rushing and #30 in Passing - when you are down points do you run the ball or pass the ball? What was our passing game like when we were behind in score? You need to look at the entire picture and not the cherry picked stats to prove a the point you are hoping to make...

 

We will be worse next year on offense (provided we don't end up with Luck, Brady, Stafford, Rivers, Brees, Ryan et al.). We are a one dimensional offense with TT as QB...

 

Fair enough, but I have looked at the whole picture...have you? I am guessing not if you are making some of these comments.

 

1. We lost 6 of our 8 games we lost with TT at QB by 6 points or less. So, we can run the ball in close games and were not often behind where we had to abandon the run, hence the #1 rushing attack in the NFL...so that point is out the window.

 

2. One of the 2 losses that was more than 6, we had a 3 score lead in the third and the D gave up 28 straight points to lose. The only other big loss was NE game.

 

3. Not sure why you claim I cherry picked stats, but honestly, just stating 30th in passing is kind of the definition of cherry picking stats. Why...becuase you completely ignore Taylors production with his legs. More importantly, you ignore the fact that we had the least pass attempts in the NFL. When has the team throwing the fewest passes also been one of the most productive in passing totals at any point in NFL history?

 

4. Our best receivers were hurt most the year, so tends to make a team further lean on a run game.

 

5. You don't win games with yards, you win games with POINTS and scoring MORE points than the opponent. Outside the fluke NE gimme game shutout, the defense gave up 25.2 points per game, 26th in the NFL and was 23rd in Yards per game allowed in the other 15 games. Had Brady played week 4, based on expected production increases, that would have dropped to 25th or lower in the NFL.

 

6. In 10 of Taylors 15 games we scored at least 25 points and we were 5th in the NFL in scoring at 26.4 points per game in Tyrods 15 starts. We were also 3rd ONLY behind NO and Atlanta in TD's scored. I mean how much more productive does our offense have to be?

 

So when you are in the bottom quadrant in the NFL in every defensive statistic and measure essentially for 15 of your 16 games...guess what, you down win many. But despite how many points we gave up, our offense still kept 6 of our 8 losses within 1 score because of our ability to score. And you want to try and convince me that the offense is our problem? Why, because you like to watch the ball go through the air? If you like points on the board, you have very little to complain about...you just prefer to get those points another way.

 

PS: Drew Brees - Over 5000 yards passing - 2 less wins than Tyrod Taylor led Bills, and likely would have been 3 less wins had TT played week 17 we probably beat the Jets. But keep telling me the more important stat is yardage. I will take points over yards any day of the week.

 

PPS: After 15 games (Taylor sat the 16th): Saints had scored only 2 more TD's than the Bills had on the season. So it would appear a good running can score as often as a prolific passing team. You can keep telling me it can't, but the facts remain the same.

Edited January 20, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[Buffalo Barbarian]

offensive Tank, build the defense through the draft, neglect the offense, Trade McCoy = Sam Darnold = Superbowls!!!

[Alphadawg7]

Brees has a way worse defense but you know, whatever.

 

You do realize we already decided to not run the offense TT ran last year, yes? I think we're about to see a nosedive if we keep him around.

 

You are correct, offensive game plan will make or break any QB, so sure, if they make changes and he doesn't fit well into them, it could dip...just like it could also improve with a new staff, healthy sammy, another year under his belt. And sorry but no one knows what our offensive game plan will be next year, including our new coaches who haven't even spent time with the players on the field yet.

 

Not sure where you get "way worse" from considering outside the fluke Pats shutout, we were in the bottom 10 or worse in the league like the Saints in just about every relevant defensive category. Sure, they were worse, but the discrepancy was small, we both sucked on D. It is clear as day that the difference in Brees to Taylor is substantially wider than the difference between our 2 crappy defenses. Not to mention, the Saints WR's are a lot better than our group. Sure, Sammy is the best WR of the 2 teams, but he didn't play much. Everyone behind Sammy would struggle for snaps or to even make the roster in NO.

 

The part I find hilarious is I have watched you piss and moan for 2 years about how we need an Elite QB, and that is more important than fixing our D. Now, you just contradict yourself when one of the best QB's ever again throws for 5000 yards yet still wins 2 LESS games than us...now you claim its the Defense fault for Brees, but not for the Bills almost equal scoring offense (who under Taylor scored just 2 less TD's than the Saints).

 

#Irony #Contradiction

Edited January 20, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Find your QB in this draft and take him.

 

not to be found, know need for an ej repeat because we "need" a QB.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Shocked at how many folks want to revamp and make a playoff push this year. Personally, I don't see that being successful.

what is really the difference between #2, a short-term rebuild for 2018 vs. #1, win now in 2017? Do you have examples in mind of transactions/decisions that would be handled differently between the two? Either way you're coming back next year with Shady, Watkins, Dareus, Hughes, Incognito, Glenn, Dareus, Darby, Clay, etc., and either way you're looking to draft a QB this year. Tyrod could justifiably stay as a bridge or be replaced by a different vet in either scenario, no? I'm probably overlooking something. We are locked into a lot of big contracts though.

[Samwell Tarly]

Play to win every week. Elite teams don't tank. They work hard all the time, fight through the tough times, make good decisions in the draft (you don't have to pick in the top five to get a great player)and free agency.

If you want your players to respect and fight for you, respect and fight for them by not wasting their time and short careers by losing on purpose.

Play the games and be smart and patient enough to recognize opportunity when it arrives

Desperate people make dumb decisions.

[FireChan]

You are correct, offensive game plan will make or break any QB, so sure, if they make changes and he doesn't fit well into them, it could dip...just like it could also improve with a new staff, healthy sammy, another year under his belt. And sorry but no one knows what our offensive game plan will be next year, including our new coaches who haven't even spent time with the players on the field yet.

 

Not sure where you get "way worse" from considering outside the fluke Pats shutout, we were in the bottom 10 or worse in the league like the Saints in just about every relevant defensive category. Sure, they were worse, but the discrepancy was small, we both sucked on D. It is clear as day that the difference in Brees to Taylor is substantially wider than the difference between our 2 crappy defenses. Not to mention, the Saints WR's are a lot better than our group. Sure, Sammy is the best WR of the 2 teams, but he didn't play much. Everyone behind Sammy would struggle for snaps or to even make the roster in NO.

 

The part I find hilarious is I have watched you piss and moan for 2 years about how we need an Elite QB, and that is more important than fixing our D. Now, you just contradict yourself when one of the best QB's ever again throws for 5000 yards yet still wins 2 LESS games than us...now you claim its the Defense fault for Brees, but not for the Bills almost equal scoring offense (who under Taylor scored just 2 less TD's than the Saints).

 

#Irony #Contradiction

Your defense has to be exceptionally bad to be bad with Brees at QB. Which it is. Our D is not as bad. TT needs a top 3 defense. Brees needs average at best. One of those is easy to do.

what is really the difference between #2, a short-term rebuild for 2018 vs. #1, win now in 2017? Do you have examples in mind of transactions/decisions that would be handled differently between the two? Either way you're coming back next year with Shady, Watkins, Dareus, Hughes, Incognito, Glenn, Dareus, Darby, Clay, etc., and either way you're looking to draft a QB this year. Tyrod could justifiably stay as a bridge or be replaced by a different vet in either scenario, no? I'm probably overlooking something. We are locked into a lot of big contracts though.

Rebuilding for 2018 would be basically shedding some older guys like Kyle, and attempting to draft a QB high in 2018 like Darnold to win with a similar crew we have now in 2018, with 2 years of draft picks and salary cap maneuvers that are a little less short term than win now.

[8-8 Forever?]

It's too late now for option 1. It's going to be an all new offense and all new defense. Expect a down year until we know the plays and have the right personnel. If we were going to do option 1 we would have kept Lynn and just fixed the defense. Now we are stuck with option 2. We have too many veterans and players we are stuck with due to salary cap restrictions to do a rebuild. Do your best to try and win now. If it's not going the right way in 2 years, fire everyone including Whaley and Russ, trade away anyone with value, cut the expensive contracts, and start from scratch. I like what Cleveland did by acquiring extra picks but I don't like who they used the picks on so follow that formula except start with the QB and OL and go from there

my quess is what will happen is option 4: what this sh-t franchise will do is go from 1 to 2 and THEN to 3, 5 years of suck (1 for option 1, 2 for option 2 and 2 for option 3). Hadn't thought of option 4, but it makes sense for this dysfunctional group.

Edited January 20, 2017 by 8and8-->NoMore

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Assume that the GM and HC are in place for the next 3 seasons.

 

Personally, I go with 2. We're in a transition period. Take a year to find a QB or 2 high in the draft and make a run in 2018.

 

I think you're missing an option. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the subsequent records of teams that "tanked" and picked in the top 3 to see if it helped or not.

[bisonbrigade]

How about winning 10 games and making the playoffs.

[H2o]

I would rather win now then dismantle and start over. We have a lot of talent on this roster. We can make some noise. Get the defense right, tweak the O, and we are right in the thick of things in the AFC.

[FireChan]

 

I think you're missing an option. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the subsequent records of teams that "tanked" and picked in the top 3 to see if it helped or not.

If you get #1 it helps a lot. Colts. Panthers. Falcons.

[dpberr]

The Bills, from a strict financial POV, cannot afford the full rebuild as described.

 

The 7-9/8-8 team is in the bottom 1/3 in revenue in the NFL as it is. Profit will be even lower.

 

Further, I think the "NFL" (owners and the management) would have serious issues with a new owner directing a franchise to tank on purpose and jeopardizing revenue creation - considering you've got the Browns already doing it, three re-locations in 24 months, and another team in complete ownership disarray (Titans).

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3. Not sure why you claim I cherry picked stats, but honestly, just stating 30th in passing is kind of the definition of cherry picking stats. Why...becuase you completely ignore Taylors production with his legs. More importantly, you ignore the fact that we had the least pass attempts in the NFL. When has the team throwing the fewest passes also been one of the most productive in passing totals at any point in NFL history?

 

(...)

 

5. You don't win games with yards, you win games with POINTS and scoring MORE points than the opponent. Outside the fluke NE gimme game shutout, the defense gave up 25.2 points per game, 26th in the NFL and was 23rd in Yards per game allowed in the other 15 games. Had Brady played week 4, based on expected production increases, that would have dropped to 25th or lower in the NFL.

 

 

I guess I'm cherry picking your points LOL but a good confirmation is CHFF "real QBR" statistic, which includes the contribution QB make to the offense with rushing yards. I believe after Game 15, Bills were 12th there (at least 15th). [ It's kept as a team stat if not a subscriber, so Game 16 pushed us down]. In other words, taking his running contribution into account Tyrod is a middle-of-the-pack QB at least.

 

And yep, points is what matters. Going into Game 16 we had like the 6th offense in the NFL on points. That's usually good enough to win games.

 

not to be found, know need for an ej repeat because we "need" a QB.

 

I am with this. If we really are rebuilding for the future, it makes a lot more sense to me to keep Tyrod and look for the best QB coming out in the draft over a couple of years, not put ourselves in another position where we have to draft a QB and have to start him as a rookie. His contract is not that prohibitive, we can do both.

Play to win every week. Elite teams don't tank. They work hard all the time, fight through the tough times, make good decisions in the draft (you don't have to pick in the top five to get a great player)and free agency.

If you want your players to respect and fight for you, respect and fight for them by not wasting their time and short careers by losing on purpose.

Play the games and be smart and patient enough to recognize opportunity when it arrives

Desperate people make dumb decisions.

 

This

Edited January 20, 2017 by Hapless Bills Fan

[BigPappy]

Win now. Win later. Do whatever it takes.

THIS!!! You build the best team you can every year with the best players you can find via FA and draft. Your early round draft players are geared to help now and your lower rounders are geared for depth and future while you get the best FA's available within your cap space.

 

option 2 is for a low character person who doesn't want to compete and that isn't any coach in the NFL. You find me an NFL coach who would tank a season for a high draft pick and I will show you an NFL coach that is in the unemployment line.

 

option 3 should not even be an option. There is no such thing as a full on rebuild in the NFL anymore. Coaches and GM's get fired, new ones come in. They replace a few key players and re-tool with what they have to try and win ASAP not 2 or 3 years from now.

 

Flame away.

[dollars 2 donuts]

Question (seriously): What does tanking get us and why would you have to do it?

 

I say that from the stand point that 5-11 is useless. To successfully tank you HAVE to be Niners and Browns bad for it to matter and it wouldn't be tanking, it would be literally dismantling even your young talent. Starting from scratch or getting to uber bad takes more than trading Shady and Dareus and Williams retiring.

 

4-12 gets you Dareus, not Newton.

Edited January 20, 2017 by dollars 2 donuts

[chris heff]

Name the teams that intentionally tanked and it worked? Colts are the only ones that immediately come to mind, and how many SB wins does Luck have? The NFL is not MLB tanking is easier said than done in the NFL.

[Alphadawg7]

Your defense has to be exceptionally bad to be bad with Brees at QB. Which it is. Our D is not as bad. TT needs a top 3 defense. Brees needs average at best. One of those is easy to do.

 

Rebuilding for 2018 would be basically shedding some older guys like Kyle, and attempting to draft a QB high in 2018 like Darnold to win with a similar crew we have now in 2018, with 2 years of draft picks and salary cap maneuvers that are a little less short term than win now.

 

You do realize that Brees has a sub .500 record in more seasons than he has a winning record in the 11 years he has been in New Orleans right? If having the ELITE QB was the most important and only way to win, then either Brees is not Elite (which we all know he is Elite and one of the greatest ever) or you are just wrong about how we MUST find what you think is a great QB.

 

And I already showed you multiple times that BOTH our defenses were both in the bottom quarter of the NFL and our D, while not quite as bad, was close to being as bad as the Saints.

 

Tyrod Taylor win % as the QB of the Buffalo Bills: .520

Drew Brees win % as the QB of the Saints: .565 (more losing seasons than winning seasons)

 

Hmmmmm...maybe just having an ELITE QB doesn't just automatically elevate you to the Super Bowl. Everyone would love to have the next Drew Brees, but they are rare players and take a long time to find, and in cases like Brees can also take a long time to develop. But the reality is you don't need to find a Brees to win in the NFL, and just having a guy like him is not enough to guarantee success. Our offense scored almost the same amount of points as the Brees led Saints did this year under Taylor. How many more points do we need to score? At the end of the day, if you can't keep the defense from giving up more points than your offense scores, you are going to lose.

 

We lost 8 games with Taylor...6 of those losses were by less than 1 score. One of the other 2 losses we had a 24-9 lead in the 3rd quarter before our D surrendered 4 straight TD drives to lose us the game and mostly kill our playoff chances. Fix the D and we could have easily won 7 of those 8 games. And you of all people have screamed how bad Rex was, how bad our system was all year...you don't get to pretend now it wasnt that bad to try and pin all the blame on Tyrod.

[FireChan]

 

You do realize that Brees has a sub .500 record in more seasons than he has a winning record in the 11 years he has been in New Orleans right? If having the ELITE QB was the most important and only way to win, then either Brees is not Elite (which we all know he is Elite and one of the greatest ever) or you are just wrong about how we MUST find what you think is a great QB.

 

And I already showed you multiple times that BOTH our defenses were both in the bottom quarter of the NFL and our D, while not quite as bad, was close to being as bad as the Saints.

 

Tyrod Taylor win % as the QB of the Buffalo Bills: .520

Drew Brees win % as the QB of the Saints: .565 (more losing seasons than winning seasons)

 

Hmmmmm...maybe just having an ELITE QB doesn't just automatically elevate you to the Super Bowl. Everyone would love to have the next Drew Brees, but they are rare players and take a long time to find, and in cases like Brees can also take a long time to develop. But the reality is you don't need to find a Brees to win in the NFL, and just having a guy like him is not enough to guarantee success. Our offense scored almost the same amount of points as the Brees led Saints did this year under Taylor. How many more points do we need to score? At the end of the day, if you can't keep the defense from giving up more points than your offense scores, you are going to lose.

 

We lost 8 games with Taylor...6 of those losses were by less than 1 score. One of the other 2 losses we had a 24-9 lead in the 3rd quarter before our D surrendered 4 straight TD drives to lose us the game and mostly kill our playoff chances. Fix the D and we could have easily won 7 of those 8 games. And you of all people have screamed how bad Rex was, how bad our system was all year...you don't get to pretend now it wasnt that bad to try and pin all the blame on Tyrod.

How many times has Brees been to the postseason? How many times has TT?

 

It's over bro. Bow out.

[Alphadawg7]

How many times has Brees been to the postseason? How many times has TT?

 

It's over bro. Bow out.

 

HAHAHAHA omg, you get more ridiculous with each post. Way to try and spin this to be something its not as if its a debate over the better QB...Brees is one of the best ever, its to a debate about who is better. Not to mention, what a stupid comment man...lets compare the career playoff appearances between a QB with 15 seasons to a guy with 2 seasons playing QB in the NFL. Wake me when you post something worth reading.

 

Lets level the playing field since Brees has played an entire career, and Taylor only 2 years...how many times in the last 2 years has Brees been to the playoffs? Zero, just like TT. We can compare career post seaosn births once Taylor's career has lasted 15 years like Brees. How many times in the last 5 seasons has Brees been to playoffs? Once

Edited January 20, 2017 by Alphadawg7