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What should the Bills plan be from here on?

FireChan

By FireChan
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  1. 1. The Plans

    • Win now - Find the best QB FA/TT, short term revamp of defense
      77
    • Tank year/short term rebuild - Chalk up 2017 as a down year, retool over the next 2 with a new QB
      25
    • Full on rebuld - Ditch older players, and play in the cellar for 2-3 years and retool with eyes on 2019-20.
      10

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K D Hall of Famer

K D

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It's too late now for option 1. It's going to be an all new offense and all new defense. Expect a down year until we know the plays and have the right personnel. If we were going to do option 1 we would have kept Lynn and just fixed the defense. Now we are stuck with option 2. We have too many veterans and players we are stuck with due to salary cap restrictions to do a rebuild. Do your best to try and win now. If it's not going the right way in 2 years, fire everyone including Whaley and Russ, trade away anyone with value, cut the expensive contracts, and start from scratch. I like what Cleveland did by acquiring extra picks but I don't like who they used the picks on so follow that formula except start with the QB and OL and go from there

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TPS All Pro

TPS

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They can be competitive and transition at the same time. Most teams have a core roster of about 25 players who make > $1 million and take up most of the cap space, then they fill in with young players via the draft and older cheap vets. The Bills have 21 players who will fit this category in 2017.

 

On the roster, the Bills currently lack starters at: WR#2 (and maybe a #3 slot should be included), OLB, CB, S (not trusting AW), and P. They have $33 million to to spend. Schmidt is an RFA and they will tender (and they will also tender Gillislee and maybe Groy). They will probably fill 2 of those holes via the draft and spend on 2-3 FAs.

 

There are also all kinds of decisions they can make to save money here and there. Small amounts like cutting IK, and larger amounts from moving on from Carpenter or retirements from KW and AW. The rest of the roster will be filled in the usual way.

 

The biggest issue going forward is of course the QB decision. They can be competitive with Taylor and the current roster while they look for the long-term answer and stock young talent.

 

Their current cap situation is a result of boosting the offense in 2015 to create a playoff-caliber roster. The Clay and McCoy contracts will be resolved in 2018 most likely.

 

They are in a transition, but they will most likely not go the tank route.

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FireChan All Pro

FireChan

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They can be competitive and transition at the same time. Most teams have a core roster of about 25 players who make > $1 million and take up most of the cap space, then they fill in with young players via the draft and older cheap vets. The Bills have 21 players who will fit this category in 2017.

 

On the roster, the Bills currently lack starters at: WR#2 (and maybe a #3 slot should be included), OLB, CB, S (not trusting AW), and P. They have $33 million to to spend. Schmidt is an RFA and they will tender (and they will also tender Gillislee and maybe Groy). They will probably fill 2 of those holes via the draft and spend on 2-3 FAs.

 

There are also all kinds of decisions they can make to save money here and there. Small amounts like cutting IK, and larger amounts from moving on from Carpenter or retirements from KW and AW. The rest of the roster will be filled in the usual way.

 

The biggest issue going forward is of course the QB decision. They can be competitive with Taylor and the current roster while they look for the long-term answer and stock young talent.

 

Their current cap situation is a result of boosting the offense in 2015 to create a playoff-caliber roster. The Clay and McCoy contracts will be resolved in 2018 most likely.

 

They are in a transition, but they will most likely not go the tank route.

You'd be adding 3 more holes right there. Not to mention the DE spot wide open right now.

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TPS All Pro

TPS

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You'd be adding 3 more holes right there. Not to mention the DE spot wide open right now.

I included the safety position because of AW's uncertainty; Washington fills KW's position; the kicker, yes KW is aging. I don't think he will make it through another season of 16 games. Time for new blood there, and he's on the roster. I can see them bringing Bryant back too. There's also an RFA I think they bring back, Coleman, and I've read somewhere they like him. DEs are Shaq and Hughes. To fill starter roles, they need a WLB, S, and the second CB. don't know how confident they are that Seymour can fill it, but with zone, it will be easier to find someone.

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FireChan All Pro

FireChan

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I included the safety position because of AW's uncertainty; Washington fills KW's position; the kicker, yes KW is aging. I don't think he will make it through another season of 16 games. Time for new blood there, and he's on the roster. I can see them bringing Bryant back too. There's also an RFA I think they bring back, Coleman, and I've read somewhere they like him. DEs are Shaq and Hughes. To fill starter roles, they need a WLB, S, and the second CB. don't know how confident they are that Seymour can fill it, but with zone, it will be easier to find someone.

Right but filling the holes with Washington and Lawson is less than guaranteed.

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Alphadawg7 Hall of Famer

Alphadawg7

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Offense with Taylor (15 games):

 

#3 in NFL in touchdowns behind only Atlanta and Saints.

#5 in NFL in points per game scored.

Scored at least 25 points in 10 of the 15 games Taylor started.

 

Defense (15 games other than the NE shutout that was an anomaly against a 3rd string QB and essentially no Gronk who barely played due to injury)

 

#26 in NFL in points allowed.

Lost 6 of our 9 games by 6 points or less. In those 6 games that we lost by 6 points or less, we gave up an average of 28.33 points.

 

 

For me, its very clear that we are capable of scoring enough points and the D giving up way too many points cost us the post season. There was a post going around that showed Russel Wilson and Taylor production numbers at about the same points in their careers and they are remarkably similar. There is no reason to scrap this whole team and go down a rabbit hole of trying to find the next Aaron Rodgers which is rare. I will also add that Brees threw for 5000 yards again, and he won 2 LESS games than we did and probably would have been 3 less had TT played week 17.

 

Most importantly, we scored all those points despite lots of injuries to our skill players on the offense. And on defense, we lost our only good Safety who happened to be our best communicator on the field in a defense that the rest of the roster struggled to grasp. We also lost our top 2 draft picks for much or all of the season and have them coming back. Add in that we didn't have Marcel for close to half the season too, and its not hard to see how getting all those guys back and a better coach for our personnel can easily see the defense rebound this year. Factoring in help in the secondary from FA and/or draft, and this D can be capable of being top 10 again like it was before Rex and company over complicated it.

 

Clear path to me is option 1...roll with TT and use our #10 pick on one of the stud WR's like Williams/Cody or one of the elite Safety or Corners. Personally, I would prefer them to go WR because Woods is not a reliable #2 and not going to be worth what he wants and the draft is deep with Safety prospects and we can grab a pretty good one in the 2nd probably if we haven't addressed it already in FA.

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FireChan All Pro

FireChan

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Offense with Taylor (15 games):

 

#3 in NFL in touchdowns behind only Atlanta and Saints.

#5 in NFL in points per game scored.

Scored at least 25 points in 10 of the 15 games Taylor started.

 

Defense (15 games other than the NE shutout that was an anomaly against a 3rd string QB and essentially no Gronk who barely played due to injury)

 

#26 in NFL in points allowed.

Lost 6 of our 9 games by 6 points or less. In those 6 games that we lost by 6 points or less, we gave up an average of 28.33 points.

 

 

For me, its very clear that we are capable of scoring enough points and the D giving up way too many points cost us the post season. There was a post going around that showed Russel Wilson and Taylor production numbers at about the same points in their careers and they are remarkably similar. There is no reason to scrap this whole team and go down a rabbit hole of trying to find the next Aaron Rodgers which is rare. I will also add that Brees threw for 5000 yards again, and he won 2 LESS games than we did and probably would have been 3 less had TT played week 17.

 

Most importantly, we scored all those points despite lots of injuries to our skill players on the offense. And on defense, we lost our only good Safety who happened to be our best communicator on the field in a defense that the rest of the roster struggled to grasp. We also lost our top 2 draft picks for much or all of the season and have them coming back. Add in that we didn't have Marcel for close to half the season too, and its not hard to see how getting all those guys back and a better coach for our personnel can easily see the defense rebound this year. Factoring in help in the secondary from FA and/or draft, and this D can be capable of being top 10 again like it was before Rex and company over complicated it.

 

Clear path to me is option 1...roll with TT and use our #10 pick on one of the stud WR's like Williams/Cody or one of the elite Safety or Corners. Personally, I would prefer them to go WR because Woods is not a reliable #2 and not going to be worth what he wants and the draft is deep with Safety prospects and we can grab a pretty good one in the 2nd probably if we haven't addressed it already in FA.

Brees has a way worse defense but you know, whatever.

 

You do realize we already decided to not run the offense TT ran last year, yes? I think we're about to see a nosedive if we keep him around.

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Reed83HOF All Pro

Reed83HOF

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Offense with Taylor (15 games):

 

#3 in NFL in touchdowns behind only Atlanta and Saints.

#5 in NFL in points per game scored.

Scored at least 25 points in 10 of the 15 games Taylor started.

 

Defense (15 games other than the NE shutout that was an anomaly against a 3rd string QB and essentially no Gronk who barely played due to injury)

 

#26 in NFL in points allowed.

Lost 6 of our 9 games by 6 points or less. In those 6 games that we lost by 6 points or less, we gave up an average of 28.33 points.

 

You forgot to mention #1 in Rushing and #30 in Passing - when you are down points do you run the ball or pass the ball? What was our passing game like when we were behind in score? You need to look at the entire picture and not the cherry picked stats to prove a the point you are hoping to make...

Brees has a way worse defense but you know, whatever.

 

You do realize we already decided to not run the offense TT ran last year, yes? I think we're about to see a nosedive if we keep him around.

 

We will be worse next year on offense (provided we don't end up with Luck, Brady, Stafford, Rivers, Brees, Ryan et al.). We are a one dimensional offense with TT as QB...

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