sherpa Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 If you're concerned about inflation, make money off it. You can buy TBT, which essentially shorts the US 20 year+ Treasuries. Easy money if you're right.
GG Posted January 27, 2018 Author Posted January 27, 2018 36 minutes ago, DC Tom said: I thought inflation pressure was obvious from the tax plan. That could dump half a trillion dollars into the economy, which can't help but be inflationary. That and full employment, rising wages, food prices & housing. Why can’y we always have too much of a good thing?
TPS Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 3 hours ago, Tiberius said: I hope you are right, but the Fed doesn't agree http://fortune.com/2017/12/13/federal-reserve-rate-rises-2018/ Nor do these economists http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/?standalone=1#ind=gdpa&r=10 You do realize the latter is the average forecast of about 60 economists? By my count, about 20% predicted 3% or more for 2018.
DC Tom Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, TPS said: You do realize You're responding to gatorman. No, no he doesn't realize. 4
3rdnlng Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 35 minutes ago, DC Tom said: You're responding to gatorman. No, no he doesn't realize. Hell, he can't even theorize.
Thurmal34 Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 Hopefully by the time the $1.5 trillion bill comes due for this 2017 tax cut a few thing will be in place; a president who gets economics 101, a willing populace to buy it, a chick with big breasts to promote it.
TtownBillsFan Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 4 hours ago, Thurmal34 said: Hopefully by the time the $1.5 trillion bill comes due for this 2017 tax cut a few thing will be in place; a president who gets economics 101, a willing populace to buy it, a chick with big breasts to promote it. You're worried about this supposed 1.5 trill added to the debt from a tax cut allowing we who pay taxes to keep a couple extra bucks, but where do you stand on the 8+tril that Obamer gave us? Or the 8+ that occurred through history to that point?
Tiberius Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 11 hours ago, TPS said: You do realize the latter is the average forecast of about 60 economists? By my count, about 20% predicted 3% or more for 2018. Did anyone, aside from Trump, predict 4%? Again i I hope you are right, but I doubt it. Anything north of 3 would run into some serious headwinds of the labor market and increase the need for immigration. That would be interesting. Couple stories out today on the low savings rate. That could be a problem over the horizon. 2 hours ago, TtownBillsFan said: You're worried about this supposed 1.5 trill added to the debt from a tax cut allowing we who pay taxes to keep a couple extra bucks, but where do you stand on the 8+tril that Obamer gave us? Or the 8+ that occurred through history to that point? That was debt incurred in fighting a very serious recession. The Trump debt was taken on after the economy was already kicking along pretty well. I like the extra cash the government left in my paycheck though! Too bad that extra debt will be a weight if and when the next recession comes. Trump sure has a way of leaving organizations he ran broke and bankrupt, like casinos, "universities" and building projects. Russia's corrupt money can't bail him out now. 11 hours ago, DC Tom said: You're responding to gatorman. No, no he doesn't realize. You are a troll. You realize that, don't you?
B-Man Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 (edited) STOCKS +44% SINCE ELECTION... Trump warns Davos on unfair trade, says U.S. 'open for business' https://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-trump-speech/trump-warns-davos-on-unfair-trade-says-u-s-open-for-business-idUSKBN1FF0X3 Democrats are coming unhinged over the Trump economy Washington Post, by Ed Rogers Original Article What a remarkable contrast: President Trump was in command at Davos talking about economic growth and prosperity, while House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and disgraced former Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) were babbling and belittling thousand-dollar bonuses and increased take-home pay for American workers. Specifically, in case you missed it, Wasserman Schultz actually said she is “not sure that $1,000 … goes very far for almost anyone.” And Pelosi, who described a $40-per-paycheck Obama-era tax cut as a “victory for America,” said thousand-dollar bonuses are just “crumbs.” These comments are gifts that will keep on giving. . Edited January 27, 2018 by B-Man
TPS Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Tiberius said: Did anyone, aside from Trump, predict 4%? Again i I hope you are right, but I doubt it. Anything north of 3 would run into some serious headwinds of the labor market and increase the need for immigration. That would be interesting. Couple stories out today on the low savings rate. That could be a problem over the horizon. One person predicted > 4%, and 14 predicted between 3-4% as I suggest. As I stated in other posts, I expect this year to be in the 3-4% range which will lead the Fed to hike rates quicker than expected, most likely leading to the next recession in 2019. A low measured savings rate is and will be a consequence of the bottom 90% increasing debt-financed consumption expenditures related to their meager increases in disposable income from the tax cuts--another factor contributing to the likelihood of a slowdown in 2019. You should hope this scenario plays out, because a weak economy in 2019/20 will make the trumpster a one-termer...
row_33 Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 $1,000 means nothing to Dem fundraisers in Manhattan and Malibu, so in a sense Pelosi is correct.
row_33 Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 (edited) Recently some study said nearly half of American families would not be able to raise $400 for an immediate emergency. Edited January 27, 2018 by row_33
3rdnlng Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 50 minutes ago, TPS said: One person predicted > 4%, and 14 predicted between 3-4% as I suggest. As I stated in other posts, I expect this year to be in the 3-4% range which will lead the Fed to hike rates quicker than expected, most likely leading to the next recession in 2019. A low measured savings rate is and will be a consequence of the bottom 90% increasing debt-financed consumption expenditures related to their meager increases in disposable income from the tax cuts--another factor contributing to the likelihood of a slowdown in 2019. You should hope this scenario plays out, because a weak economy in 2019/20 will make the trumpster a one-termer... Is this what you hope for?
row_33 Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 Everyone makes predictions and none turn out consistently right and nobody is held accountable for them.
meazza Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 16 minutes ago, row_33 said: Everyone makes predictions and none turn out consistently right and nobody is held accountable for them. Youre right. Economists that are inaccurate should be sent to the gulags.
DC Tom Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 21 minutes ago, row_33 said: Everyone makes predictions and none turn out consistently right and nobody is held accountable for them. Ask five economists for a forecast and you get five different answers...six if one of them went to Harvard.
sherpa Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 What's the old aphorism? "Economists exist to make astrology look good." Or... "Economists predicted 25 or the last 5 recessions."
TPS Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, sherpa said: What's the old aphorism? "Economists exist to make astrology look good." Or... "Economists predicted 25 or the last 5 recessions." The oldest and supposedly true is, "Someone find me a one-handed economist..." H. Truman 1 hour ago, 3rdnlng said: Is this what you hope for? Absolutely! Especially if it's Bernie who takes him baby!
Cinga Posted January 27, 2018 Posted January 27, 2018 3 hours ago, Tiberius said: Anything north of 3 would run into some serious headwinds of the labor market and increase the need for immigration Seriously? For a couple decades now it has been a business labor market which has kept wages stagnated. We're finally going into a workers labor market and you want to dump more cheap labor in there to continue to hold wages down? I know you hate capitalism, but with this proposal you and the Dem Party need to STFU about the minimum wage and quit pretending you are in favor of the middle class. It's become obvious lately the Dems only care about illegal immigrant votes, cheap labor, and their wealthy donors. 1
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